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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

So far so good on the BTC Cup and Handle!Traders, In this weekly update, I cover the DXY, VIX, US500, US10Y, US02Y, inverted yield and its significance, Eurodollar, Credit Suisse, unemployment, and the Bitcoin. I'll cover a few anomalies that I am seeing in our current market and explain what they might indicate for future price action. Finally, we will cover that Bitcoin Cup and Handle pattern that I have been projecting for the past few weeks: what happens if it plays out and what happens if it fails. Stew
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
Dip Dip Dip...Is it Done? 3 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ A massive reversal of fortunes as the dip buyers show their hand. Is it the end of the short-term downtrend from the 2nd Feb high? ➤ The honest answer to that is I have no idea and no one else does either. We can only assign probabilities as to what may happen next. That after all is what Trading and Investing is all about. Making a sound judgement and then backing that up with money. ➤ With the current scenario, it is completely unclear to me as to how prices will evolve. That is why I haven't put on a position. That is why my Strategy hasn't given a trading signal. ➤ Today's price action builds on the scenario that I outlined yesteday. That is the Bullish scenario as explained by the abscence of strong selling pressure. I described it as the "drip drip drip" of small downward movements. The large Bullish intention of today's move could mark the end of the drip. ➤ However, there are many complications. One of which is how price resolves itself around the 200 day moving average. It is hanging around there like a bad smell. ➤ Conclusion: Trading is about discipline. We are not forced into a trade, it is a choice. There are good and bad choices.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Drip Drip Drip... 2 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Another down day to start off March. You can see that prices have trickled down slowly drip by drip since the Feb 2 high. It feels like a death by a thousand cuts. Not enjoyable for the Bulls nor satisfying for the bloodthirsty Bears. ➤ It's certainly different to the drops in the past year where they have been fast and furious. This has two potential meanings: ❶ There's a lack of strong selling ❷ There's strong selling still to come ➤ In the first case, the behaviour says that the Bulls will eventually win out. They are absorbing whatever level of selling there is. Bears will exhaust themselves ending in an inevitable levitation in price (perhaps a fast one since there are no more sellers). ➤ In the second case, the dumb Bulls are buying the dip. As a more clever Bull you have the knowledge that there are more sellers than buyers. In order to exit your buy positions at the best price you exit with care, drip by drip. Until at some stage, the dumb dip buyers run out and then the drip feed becomes a selling waterfall as the Bears come to feed. ➤ Conclusion: These are the types of games the big players play. I don't really care for either explanation. My only care is that I grasp this opportunity to make money.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
200DAY MOVING AVG RETEST AND TREND LINE BREAKOUT 3942/3922 FIBThe chart posted is now retested the breakout trendline as well as the bb bands and 200 day moving avg into cycle low . the only thing we did not see a jump in VIX but a break down showing me that we are moving into a last level of support before the next bear market phase the panic is not until june to oct .am net long 95 % qqq 289/291 filled 290 .40 and spx the other day 3944 . I will remain bullish now till we reach the upside target 4222/4308 . best of trades WAVETIMER
SP:SPXLong
by wavetimer
Poised for Action, 1 Mar 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ February is done and dusted. Tuesday trade ended down after a late sell-off. The second consecutive down day. Although prices have moved laterally for past few days, the behaviour shows Bears taking control. Previously, we saw buying support to close out the day, this has now reversed. ➤ I think price is poised to stride lower very soon. I'd like to see VIX rebound higher in concert with a price drop to bring a higher level of confidence that the drop will stick. In fact, VIX has been stuck in the low 20s for a while. I need to see this spike much higher. ➤ Conclusion: February was favourable although there was little trading action. On to March we march.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
A Short Pause, 28 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ As per recent weeks equity prices opened with optimism and finished with a whimper. Today was no exception. Price filled the large gap left open on Friday trade but made no further headway. ➤ S&P500 equity index is still dancing around the 400 level and the 200-day moving average. I expect this to continue but only for a few days. Price should break away from this area very soon. ➤ Price could move upwards to fill in the two smaller price gaps just above but I think more likely it may drop. A good sized drop will give me an opportunity to re-enter with shorts. A move higher may mean staying patient for a trade. ➤ There's plenty of action in other asset classes. See above links for USD and NATGAS price action. ➤ Conclusion: Last day of Feb, time flies by so fast when you're having fun.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
2/27/2023 (Monday) SPY Analysis and Market Deep DiveMonday 2/27/2023 - In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities. In the Trading View App, You can use the links below and hit play, so you can see the action from the dates the charts were published. I will keep this going so we can follow outcomes to analysis! SORRY I RAN OUT OF TIME, I ONLY HAD a minute to go and I would have had to start from scratch as TV tools dont edit. Sorry!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Markets-Sniper
TGIF, 24 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ A negative day to finish off a negative (shortened) week for equity prices. S&P500 was down around -2.7% from previous Friday close. ➤ Yet again we saw Friday trade finish higher than it started (green arrows in chart). This makes it 9 consecutive Fridays. Probably the only consistent observation that I can make since the start of the year. Yet I do see a wrinkle, overall, the size of the "body" of the candle i.e. distance between daily open and close has narrowed. Either someone has exploited this anamoly or it is simply the fact that we should expect a narrowing during a short-term downtrend since 2 Feb. In that case, when the bullish trend returns, we should once more see a large profitable body on Fridays? ➤ We should also note the gap in daily prices between previous days' close and the next days' open (blue arrows in chart). These tend to get filled in due course, meaning prices should at some stage (whenever that will be) will return back up to these levels. ➤ Anyway, I shouldn't bore you with such uninteresting and useless observations. Over this weekend, I'll re-visit some of the charts to look at any price developments in other asset classes such as NATGAS, GOLD, USDOLLAR etc. ➤ Conclusion: TGIF, have a great weekend!
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
This is why I wait for 3 confirmation candles on the daily!Traders, At times, during the last week, it looked as if our Cup and Handle pattern was going to be legitimized. However, caution was admonished. We had not yet seen 3 candle closes above our neckline on the daily which would have allowed for the safest entry. Though, we played around above the neckline for over a week, the break was never confirmed with 3 solid price closes above the neckline on the daily. This provides valuable teaching material for us all to observe and learn from going forward. I will review price history and show you what I needed to see for solid confirmation. I will also review the four charts I was observing this past week. And finally, I will show you what the picture now is looking like going forward. Stew
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
4
VIX: VOLATILITY CYCLES / POINT OF CONTROL / RAISING THE CEILING DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a SEMI-MACRO analysis of VIX a volatility index on the 4 hour timeframe. This is a brief update on VIX as we have had some interesting momentum taking place. POINTS: 1. Deviation of 7 points continues to stand and justifies Supply & Demand Pocket Placement. 2. RSI is currently OVEREXTENDED but PRICE ACTION continues to exhibit compressed behavior by only GRAVITATING around 20 POINTS. 3. MACD signals that past cycles have at least seen 2.00 POINTS on MACD'S deviation from Median but has only seen 0.50 since the beginning of this VOLATILITY CYCLE. IMPORTANT: With a new ceiling confirmed by price actions recent upward momentum it is safe to say that if price action surpasses 23 we will come to see elevated VOLATILITY for SPY, SPX, ES1! or NQ1!. I would consider a BULLISH & BEARISH scenario when it comes to VIX but no recession has ever come to an end without VIX first touching 40 POINTS but here it is. SCENARIO #1: In a BULLISH scenario for VIX we see an eventual RETEST of 19 followed by further consolidation and a BREAK of 23 POINTS by MARCH 8th. SCENARIO #2: In a BEARISH scenario for VIX we come to see a break of 19 POINTS to the downside followed by an inevitable RETEST of the 8 YEAR TREND LINE & would elongate capitulation due date. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com TVC:VIX CBOE:VIX
TVC:VIXLong
by DGSTBROKERACC
The 400, 24 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities were all over the place on Thursday trade. Starting higher, dipping lower before moving back up to where it all pretty much started. That is "The 400". ➤ 400 is the key round number level of the S&P500 Index (SPY) or 4,000 for the SPX500. Price tends to get drawn to and then gyrate around these round numbers like a moth to a flame. Not to be outdone, there is also the 200-day moving average in the midst. ➤ What's significant about the round numbers like 100, 1,000 or 30,000? Nothing in particular. It's just that "human" psychology finds them "favourable" or "comforting" or "satisifying" perhaps? It's certainly more appetising than a number like 30,627. Obviously, algos and bots also try to exploit these conditions, hence the back and forth we usually see. ➤ I took the exit signal to get out of my short position. Does it mean prices may bounce higher? It's certainly possible but I don't have a high conviction view. I'm going to sit it out for now until the next favourable opportunity hopefully very soon. ➤ Conclusion: Happy to be counting my profits until the next trade.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
$BTC $VIX $COIN $DODO & more info from yesterday!SORRY, busy day yesterday Was on radio show & generally copy paste to here and other sources but was too swamped. SORRY Pls see profile for more DATA - YESTERDAY @ 11:56AM Intraday $btc @ short term support Oversold on 1hr 4hr #BTC not oversold yet #Bitcoin may bounce here but fall may not be done yet #Crypto - Yesterday 11:15AM $VIX MAY have issues here We can very well have bounce for $SPX & #stocks - 11:05 yesterday VERY IMPORTANT AREA for $BTC Shorts for #BTC still uneventful Intraday #Bitcoin in range Sells were not heavy but more abundant than buys Hence, pulling back a bit However, buys seem to be coming in, WAITING #crypto - 10:51AM Again, PERSONAL #crypto portfolio $DODO @ low 14's Already had 2x & was trying to buy back small portion sold but MISSED retest of breakout (yellow line) #DEX don't have limits @ least I've never seen 👀HUGE volume, LARGEST EVER Weekly looking good #altcoin #altcoins - 10:19AM Yesterday Completely out of $COIN on that run! Almost 80-90% on that run buying #option puts back!!! @coinbase #crypto #CEX FYI ended writing them again on the selloff, will let some sold puts expire & some may cover later as they are further out - TODAY Good morning everyone! What have we been saying for over a year? Whenever the #FED speaks & the market makes a move the following day is usually an inverse #trade accordingly Next few months will be volatile $vix $spx #crypto $btc $ndx $dji
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Trend Continuation, 23 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities finished slightly down although tech and small cap outperformed. Price recovered from the day's low towards the end of the trading session but was not able to hold on to earlier gains. ➤ Overall, there's little to say about today's price action. S&P500 once again finished below the 400 level. Usually around these "round" numbers, price likes to move to and fro. ➤ I continue to hold my large short position. ➤ Conclusion: I still favour trend continuation to the downside in the short-term.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Low-risk, Predictable Speculation on VX FuturesA lot of traders I talk to are afraid of trading volatility products. When I watch trading shows even the professionals are afraid of trading the VIX because they don't understand it. I find that funny because as someone who has experience trading all asset classes and analyzing a dozen casino games I find the VIX to be the most mean-reverting asset. The more an asset returns to its mean price, the more predictable it is, the more risk you can allocate to that product. For instance the safest bet in the casino is around 48% probability of success. That bet is betting red or black in Roulette. For investing there is no safe bet. We know that if you spread your dollars around in the S&P500 over the last 30 years, you would have done well but no one can predict which 10 stocks would have outperformed over the last 10 years. I have probably analyzed several dozen indicators over several dozen securities across all the asset classes: crypto, stocks, bonds, etc. For the last 30 years the VIX has had a flat bottom price average around 14-16 dollars. Its top is around 30-40 dollars. Comodities, equities, currencies, etc they all have black swan political or weather events. They are influenced by fear and lack. Why not trade the vehicle that correlates with fear? that's the VIX. Humans are predictable. They will always go through cycles of fear. Now we know the asset class but how do we measure the mean? I chose the Directional Trend Index but with a twist. the DTI takes 3 values to create the mean trend lines( R, S, and U) . I cycled through 1 to 50 permutations in all 3 values. It turns out that a reverse or descending numerical input is the best performing. Now we have the asset: VX Future The strategy: Reverse DTI with any descending number of your choice (10,5,3) The indicator: VIX chart 4 hours: I was told by floor traders that the big money banks use 4 hour and daily charts for analysis. So I always trade on this to swim along the trend of the big fish. So I open up a 4 hour chart of VIX, apply the pine script of DTI , update the R S and U values, and create a strategy. It returned over 100% profit in the backtesting. I tried linking my chart screenshot for proof . hopefully this worked. this is my first post. :-) TVC:VIX I traded this on traderspost automated trading with $50k paper money and I made over $35000 in 90 day free trial. Reach out to me if you would like to schedule a call for more help.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by apollos1337