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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

It's Showtime! 17 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ We continue to see significant intra-day volatility in equities. Swings in excess of 1% up and down are now the norm. We should continue to expect this especially during this crucial period. ➤ This is the first day after many that the prices have managed to finish lower. The Bulls were not able to support the price. Their attempts today failed. That was sufficient to give me the signal to go ALL IN. Meaning, I am now SHORT with the maximum position size. It's Showtime! ➤ For things to go my way, I firstly need to see the price confidently break below 405. This was the recent low in the side-ways movement in the past couple of weeks. Then there is the much watched 200-day moving average at around 400. Below that is a possible fast drop to 390. That's around a 5% move from current levels. ➤ Conclusion: The Short trade plan is beginning to move in my favour but plenty of things may go wrong.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Market now looking to go BearishWith the massive selloff in the market today and the great setup on the VIX it is looking like this little bull run could now be over. In my 2 chart pics I have the daily charts of the SPY and the VXX. This looks very obvious that the VXX is ready to spike which will send the market lower. It is always important when determining where the market is going, to look at the vix. If the vxx is bearish the market is likely bullish, if the vxx is bullish the market will likely be bearish. It will mostly be opposite. So right now the VXX is setting up very bullish for Friday. I will be mostly looking for bearish setups to trade on Friday for the top stocks and indicess Now it is also important to view the futures over night because they could easily turn around a rally setting up for a gap up in the SPY the next day.
AMEX:VXX
by Dancharles
VIX: VOLATILITY CYCLES / PREDICTION / EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGEDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a SEMI-MACRO analysis of VIX. I have decided to reduce the number of BARS that it will take for the Volatility Index to see its next price action cycle with past cycles lasting up too 250, 300, or 375 BARS to complete. With current price action trajectory and support it appears 250 BARS would be the most suitable span of time for this current cycle to complete. POINTS: 1. Deviation of 7 Points Remains the same for SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKET PLACEMENT. 2. 8 YEAR UPTREND Line has nearly made contact & is indicative of VIX seeing a rubber band reaction to the upside. 3. Current DOWNTREND pattern is being squeezed against 8 year trend. IMO: If price action sees a break to the upside past 21.50 it will be a sure enough bet that VIX will then be looking for 26 Points. EMA'S: PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO TIGHT MOMENTUM OF ALL THREE EMA'S (45,100,200) WHICH USUALLY INDICATIVE OF UPCOMING SHIFT IN TREND. RSI: In regard to RSI crucial pivot point levels are mapped by using past positions held by RSI when VIX would eventually bottom out. MACD: The VIX and MACD share a parallel relationship in the way that as soon as MACD touches MEDIAN and switches directions price action on VIX will come to see a shift in momentum. Currently MACD is in negative territory but should be another solid indicator for when VIX is ready to rubber band to the upside. SCENARIO #1: In a BULLISH scenario price action continues to be supported by threshold at 19 & by March 8th it would be inevitable for PRICE ACTION to not be carried TO THE UPSIDE by the 45 EMA with current TRAJECTORY if SUPPORT OF 19 HOLDS. SCENARIO #2: In a BEARISH scenario this setup would become invalidated if price action is to BREAK TO THE DOWNSIDE past the 19 SUPPORT LEVEL. And would depend on a future hold of of at least 16.80 to be held in order to respect 8 YEAR UPTREND. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com TVC:VIX
TVC:VIXLong
by DGSTBROKERACC
1
Now or Never, 16 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ For the fourth consecutive day, price finished the trading day higher than the open. All this "bullish" action has occurred within the shadows of the large "bearish" bar on 9th Feb. ➤ Yesterday, I looked at the Bearish case of this "laboured" move. Today I'm going to touch on the Bullish story. ➤ The case for being Bullish is quite simple. The market has formed a Bullish "flag" technical chart formation. This is a minor retracement where prices whipsaw up and down either in a sideways or slight downward manner within the primary Bull trend. At some stage, price will then accelerate higher by breaking above this price congestion. ➤ The 4 consecutive up bars of recent days is telling us that despite the best effort of the Bears, the Bulls have overcome them. ➤ Conclusion: It is now or never for the short trading plan. Another day like today would see me switch camps to the Bulls.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Dollar Doing a Double CheckTraders, The Dollar really wants to make sure that its resistance overhead is legit. From a technical perspective, I love this! Should the dollar remain below my macro uptrend line, it will be all bulls for the next few weeks/months in the U.S. stock markets. The dollar should continue its sideways/down movement during the same interim. If the VIX is any indicator, then my thesis appears to remain intact. Watch closely. Blow off top should peak by mid/late summer or early fall. Best, Stew
TVC:DXYShort
by stewdamus
1
All To Play For, 15 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The price reaction post the Inflation data was anti-climatic. Equities started lower but ended higher. Overall, slightly down from the previous day. ➤ Don't be fooled by my chart that has plotted an almost perfect trajectory for the price path thus far. This will most certainly be wrong. I'm no Nostradamus. ➤ For Traders like myself who are holding a short position, the rise over the last three days has not managed to surpass the large down day on 9th Feb. Bulls are finding it tough. Of course, that doesn't prevent prices from surging higher, it just shows that the Bears are still in the game. The game is wide open, it is all to play for. ➤ I would need to see the VIX reverse course quick smart though. It collapsed today. A solid up tick is needed for the Bear thesis to play out. ➤ Conclusion: It is still going to plan.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Going to Plan, 14 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Happy Valentine's Day to all my Copiers and Followers! Even if the market is showing you no love, I still will! 😘 ➤ Equities moved higher Monday. It was expected but I didn't know to what extent. Nor does it matter unless it moved beyond the levels as set out in my post yesterday: "The Perfect Trade Plan". See related idea below. ➤ Today's aggressive move higher does not alter our plan, if anything, it is going to plan. It can be argued that today's move was pretty meaningless. It was completely encapsulated by the large down bar on 9th Feb, it tells us very little of what happens next. You could further argue that this is a "trap" to allow the big players to exit their holdings or to put on more shorts at a better price. Very much like the bullish price action on 7th Feb. It all has to do with the upcoming main event. ➤ Inflation data Tuesday will almost certainly reveal if the above is true. It will probably also mark the make or break moment for my trade plan. A daily close above 417 on the SPY or if VIX collapses below 17 will force me out of my position with a loss. ➤ Conclusion: Still going to plan.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
The PERFECT Trading Plan, 12 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Here's my plan of attack for the early part of next week if all things go according to plan: ⦿ I am already holding a small short position in the equity market. I'm looking for further downside to play out in the next couple of weeks. The major catalyst is the US inflation data release this coming Tuesday. ⦿ As illustrated on my chart, this is the idealized path I would like to see the price take in accordance to my trade plan. I would like to see the price move flat or higher on Monday. This is very possible given that there might be further buying support flowing on from Friday. ⦿ On inflation data Tuesday, I would like to see equities sell-off. A sufficiently aggressive sell-off will provide me with the opportunity to add to my shorts to a maximum position size. ⦿ I would like to see prices continue falling for the remainder of the week and beyond. The primary price target would be down to 390 on SPY or 3900 on SPX500. ❓What can go wrong? ⤑ A lot. The second worst scenario is that Bulls take charge on the release of the inflation data and drive prices aggressively closing beyond 417 on the SPY or VIX collapses below 17. This will force me out of my position with a loss. Although It won't be disastrous given my small position size. ⤑ The worst scenario is after adding to a maximum position, price reverses aggressively higher beyond 417 on the SPY or the VIX collapses below 17. This will inflict maximum loss. ➤ Conclusion: It nevers goes to plan.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
2
The Last Supper, 10 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I’m no Trading God, but was today’s price action the Last Supper for the Bulls? Is the free flow of sweet wine about to be cut-off? Not sure if this reference was blasphemous, I plead for mercy. ➤ Equities opened the trading day aggressively higher but by the end of day it was a complete 180° reversal of fortune. What do I make of this? ➤ Clearly, the Bears would be encouraged by today's price action. Price has definitively closed back below the resistance zone. VIX has responded by moving back above 20 from where previous downtrends began in ernest. ➤ The only wrinkle and it may be a very short-term one is that the drop from the recent high is not a change in behaviour. i.e. this drop is nothing out of the ordinary. The two key observations for a change of behaviour are: ➊ out-sized bearish candle/bar or ➋ out-sized drop since the beginning of the intermediate bull trend (since Jan 2023 low) ❌ Neither of these has occurred (when comparing to the drop on 18th Jan). Of course, we just need another bearish day and we will easily fulfill observation ➋ ➤ NOTE: A change of behaviour does not mean a trend has ended. It is only a warning sign (the amber coloured traffic light) that something is afoot. ➤ I still hold a small short position. ➤ Conclusion: Plenty of Bulls are drunk, tell them not to drive - translation: just be careful
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Fight or Flight.TLT is the most interesting instrument for me to analyze. That's what has me concerned about the upcoming CPI. You know when you are flying a plane and the instruments all start flashing and making noises. That's what is happening the past week in equities, bonds and FX. Trends are THE most important factor in a traders arsenal. TLT trend follows liquidity. If liquidity is rising (TLT UP), risk is on, if liquidity is drying up (order book getting thin), risk moves to off conditions. TLT and S&P 500 Dealer Directional Open Interest (DDOI) gamma exposure is another measurement of liquidity. Liquidity over the past week has been under tight control and pulling back in cases like TLT. While we are seeing big distributions intraday in equities from short squeezes and earnings hit or misses, I'm not reading that in liquidity. It could be the fact that all 3 hedged equity funds are positive and support along with long call flows that reminisce in 2020-21 Bull Market. Underlying weaknesses may be lurking post CPI. If TLT breaks this trend line lower (< 103), it will likely be the earliest indicator that liquidity is drying up. TLT on a positive uptrend meant positive flows in indexes. The trifecta, Bonds, S&P and Hedge Equity Flows all supportive flows. It's the primary reason I was bullish at the the following point. DXY is another important trend to follow. If US wants to export inflation, it would start with a trend reversal higher. I expect DXY will come back down to test the 20D prior to CPI (FEB 14). That's when I think when the fireworks will begin, maybe a LEFT tail and maybe a RIGHT I missed the last CPI print in my series on Has It Peaked. This idea and the Window of Weakness idea are just primers for what is shaping up to be an explosive few weeks ahead VIX is acting different these past few weeks. I think we are at a Nadir on the VIX and this CPI print right in front of VIXperation/OPEX is when we'll know Higher for Longer or Viva la'Bull FEB 14 - CPI FEB 15 - VIXPERATION FEB 18 - OPEX FEB 20 - Exchange Holiday So lots of potential for Volatility. Vol should be well supplied into CPI and depending on direction and how dealers are positioned for VIX/OPEX should see larger distributions than normal. Good if you're a convexity trader. FEB 20 Holiday is important because it's happening during a window of weakness while technical flows will be weakest until March.
NASDAQ:TLT
by SPYvsGME
4