Mid 20s coming by end of FebCorrelates to the near-term downside everyone is seeing for the market.
Be careful bulls.
Vorhees
VIX CBOE Volatility Index
Gme run this week?
As stated previously in my last Idea NYSE:GME has been following a clear pattern for nearly 3 weeks now. Making new highs every 4 trading days(H1,H2,H3). Last high was made 2/2 so 4 trading days from that would be this Wednesday (H4). I expect to trade flatish/down Monday and flatish/down early Tuesday and to start going up mid/late Tuesday. I believe we can reach $25 on the next new high and when we do hedging of the option chain will cause a large run up.
We are very strongly inversely correlated with TVC:VIX and as long and it keeps its downtrend I expect gme to continue its uptrend.
I am hoping gme will do something similar to what NASDAQ:UPST did last week. It too was following the same pattern gme was. When it made a new high in the $20 range it exploded upwards to $25. I believe that happened because of the heavy options interest at $20. gme was trading at 25 for 3 months so I'm hoping the options at 25 can rocket it forward. Interestingly even after breaking out upst still appers to be following the same pattern it has been indicating its run might not be over. I will be keeping an eye on it.
Failure to delivers on gme and etfs it is in have picked up again stocksera.pythonanywhere.com and the starting date of covering them is this week. In addition, the put/call ratio on gme has become very call skewed www.barchart.com adding to my belief the option chain can propel us higher.
While I am hoping gme runs this week I will be happy as long as it maintains its uptrend. I would keep an eye on vix and other "meme stocks" and if they are staying on trend I will remain bullish on gme.
I have noticed that the general pattern for the next leg up is 1. vix goes down hard 2.gme iv goes down hard 3.gme goes up. So if you are thinking of entering in an options position, I would wait for gme iv to crush as a signal to buy.
Bulls Never Say Die, 8 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities went full Bull mode today despite some intra-day volatility. It looks like it wants to surpass the recent high.
➤ There's really only one thing that could stop it and that is the super overextended nature of this Bullish move since the Oct 2022 bottom. Perhaps it is not really "stoppable". It may just be some lateral price movement to work off the exuberant enthusiasm prior to jumping higher.
➤ I am still holding my small short position until I get the exit signal to get out. For example, a daily close above the recent peak will definitely do that.
➤ Conclusion: Optimism may fade but it usually comes back. It rarely dies.
are we bottoming out in vix?its too early to tell the weekly picture, but the daily and 4hr appear to be turning the tide for the broader market in a bearish direction, and that mean uvxy could see high $5s. if we do create a top in spx, and uvxy does begin to climb today i would only at first assume its a temporary pop, but if we truly start unravelling uvxy could see high $6s. count on the market and spx returning to bull as long as were in this weekly inside bar scenario. i am all cash until we pick a direction.
$Vix - BreakoutYeah bix is actually broken as heck, not really being used properly anymore as the big guys have found other sources of buying/selling volatility. Vix is being used only intermittently now whenever other sources are not available.
That being said, i think the Vix is braking out. I wouldn't touch it though due to the reasons i mentioned above. I've opted into buying SQQQ instead which is still well in use.
SPY Uncertainty High as Trends CollidePrimary Chart: S&P 500 (SPX) as represented by SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
1. SPX and Recession
A recession is exceedingly likely in the near future. It could officially begin next month or in 4 months. But does that mean bears should be rewarded by a straight-line decline to new lows? Sadly not.
Unfortunately for market participants, the S&P 500 S&P 500 ( SP:SPX / AMEX:SPY ) has confounded bulls and bears alike in recent months. Since June 2022 lows, SPX has traded substantially within the 3800-4000 range (380-400 SPY).
After last year's lows on October 13, 2022, SPX rallied hard into mid-December 2022, only to be rejected at its down TL from its all-time highs. Down trendlines are one way of gauging a trend, especially the more times that price touches the trendline and reverses, showing it is a valid and effective dynamic boundary for market prices.
When price was rejected from the mid-December 2022 highs (on December 13, the date of that month's FOMC presser), it fell rapidly into the 3800 SPX / 380 SPY range. Then it spent over two weeks within that range doing price discovery before breaking out and retesting the downward trendline (from all-time highs) this week. Many bulls called for 4100 SPX / 410 SPY saying the lows are in. Bears furiously covered shorts. Then bears were rewarded late this week as bad macro data started to be respected by the markets.
But will bears continue to be rewarded? Just because a recession looms does not mean prices must go straight to new lows. Yes, they might, and they could very well do so, especially with the Fed not backing off much at all. But price could also find a reason to squeeze shorts one last time before heading to new lows. Be prepared for anything.
2. VIX Signals
VIX told us earlier this week that the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX / AMEX:SPY ) was in a precarious spot. A multi-year trendline on VIX lies just below where it closed Friday, January 13, 2023. This trendline provides major support at approximately 16.80 to 17.00 on VIX, and VIX closed at 18.34, its lowest level in a year (specifically, the lowest level since January 2022 when SPX had just finished making its all-time highs).
However, VIX remains within a downtrend, subject to a trendline that has contained VIX levels since they made their most recent peak at mid-October 2022 lows. Until this downtrend is broken, clarity on the next trend leg in SPX will be difficult to find. In the VIX chart below, notice the yellow downward trendline containing VIX peaks more or less. And the pink line is the long-term upward TL that has provided long-term support.
Some say TA cannot be applied to VIX. Strong opinions exist on both sides of this issue. Some of the best technical analysts serving institutions apply TA to VIX, and others do not.
Supplementary Chart A.1
To those who are skeptical, SquishTrade would ask whether you would bet against the long-term upward TL each time VIX levels have reached it. In other words, would you sell vol when VIX fell to its very long-term uptrend line? Each time it has done so, it has moved back higher off that line. See Supplementary Chart A.2.
Supplementary Chart A.2
3. SPX Triangle
A triangle is a consolidation pattern. The Primary Chart above shows the current triangle that has formed. It is essentially a collision between a 3-month uptrend and a 13-month downtrend (lasting over a year since January 2022 highs). So long as price remains in this triangle, uncertainty about the intermediate term direction will likely remain high.
Many triangles have arisen this year, and each one has led to new lows. This one may as well, as the yield curves and macro data support this outcome. But price could whipsaw out the top of the triangle for a month or two before heading to lows. All possibilities remain on the table. Expert Elliotticians have continued to change their wave counts as the year has progressed. This does not mean they are bad at their craft—it simply may point to the challenging nature of the price action.
In the intermediate term, direction remains murky given the collision between these two uptrends. Ultimately new lows should be formed. But will a powerful rally rip higher to trap bears first? Will price action whipsaw around after a triangle breakout before figuring out a recession is coming and the Fed won't come to the rescue as quickly and spectacularly as in the past? These are the questions that many are trying to answer. This post contains no short-term directional bias—it's too close to call.
So despite the powerful rally off October 2022 lows, and despite the powerful rally off late December 2022 lows, and the rapid decline this week, price remains stuck in a very large triangle on the daily chart. See Primary Chart.
Notice how the edges of this triangle align in early February (right around the FOMC meeting) at key Fibonacci levels. See Supplementary Chart B.1 The smaller blue circles point to key pivot levels at 3800 SPX / 380 SPY and 4000 / 400 SPY. The larger blue circle shows the apex of the triangle and the (compressing) range it covers from 388 to 396 / 3890-3970 SPX, where price may remain for a bit longer.
Supplementary Chart B.1
Here is an additional chart showing the Fibonacci levels a little more clearly. The key .618 retracement of the August-October 2022 decline lies at 399.79 SPY / 4000 SPX. Above that, a .786 retracement lies at 402.85 SPY. These now are both outside the downward trendline. If the downward trendline is adjusted for the whipsaws in mid-December 2022 (yellow downtrend line chart below), these key Fibonacci levels could be tagged within the "adjusted" down trendline. To the downside, notice how multiple Fibonacci levels come in right at 380 / 3800 SPX. This seems to be a line in the sand, also from a support perspective. When 3800 is decisively broken, watch out below for a new low.
Supplementary Chart B.2
Note the 200-day SMA which has been widely discussed in financial media over the past week as it was tested yet again. This 200-day SMA is the magenta EMA in Supplementary Chart B.2.
4. Anchored VWAPs
The anchored VWAPs—anchored to key swing highs and lows since June 2022—align quite well with the lower boundary of the consolidation triangle discussed, especially as more time passes and that lower boundary (an uptrend line from October 2022 lows) rises. See Supplementary Chart C.1. The VWAPs show a support range of 3870 to 3900 SPX / 836-388 SPY. If these are broken decisively, watch out for the upward trendline as it may break too. If these are held, as they have been so far this week, uncertainty remains high.
Supplementary Chart C.1
VWAPs also show confluence with two key Fibonacci retracements, the .50 retracement and the .618 retracement of the recent rally from December 22, 2022 to January 17, 2023.
Supplementary Chart C.2
Dollar to Resume Sideways/Downtrend Price Action TomorrowTraders,
From a technical perspective, the dollar is doing exactly as it should. Technical analyst should have expected a retest of what was previously very strong support. We have now observed that retest and the dollar has permission to continue its descent. If descent is not immediate, sideways action can be expected. But, least likely, is the possibility that the dollar re-breaks the macro uptrend to the top side. Vix data correlates with the continuation of the dollar's descent.
And with continued dollar descent, we should observe the market to continue onwards and upwards. Crypto will continue to follow.
Stew
First Strike, 7 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities opened lower and ended from where it started. The more speculate stocks selling off more than the Bluechips. This was sufficient to get me into the Bearish mode.
➤ S&P500 is now trading below the double resistance line. I see the potential for it to drop some more. I'm using a small amount of capital to take a short position.
➤ This is also the first "live" test trade for my volatility strategy. This test involves using real capital in real trading conditions but with a small portfolio allocation.
➤ The play book going forward was outlined yesterday: A short opportunity first. This then opens up the second set of opportunities offering the high conviction trades. Increasing short positions as price weakens further with continued selling pressure or reverse with long positions if Bulls come in and support the price to invalidate the short set-up.
➤ Conclusion: Back in the game.
BTC Momentum Gone? USD + VIX say so Hi
The question these days is how much momentum do we have left in the current BTC bull run, I would love to see a leg down so we gather enough momentum to open a weekly candle above 25k. As things stand right now, there is not much to the downside for both USD and VIX and this indicates that there is not much momentum for liquidity for risk-class assets such as BTC left. On the flip side both USD and VIX have a lot of room to the upside which is going to pull money out of risk-class assets and if that happens the TA on the BTC graphs wont do much good as the market is going to react accordingly. I will be closely monitoring this myself.
Comment and Share!
VIX: Another Warning Sign!Hello friends, today you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1M linear scale chart for the Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX).
In this chart, you can see the VIX moving along a support trendline. When the VIX spikes upwards that means the markets (specifically S&P 500; generally all markets) start to move downwards. Every few years the VIX starts to slowly move upwards on a new support and resistance trend line before coming back down to the bottom support line. The current structure of the VIX looks very similar to the formation of the Great Recession so I show that on the chart as a possibility. I also note two support and resistance lines which the VIX could move on as it moves higher. Lastly noted is the RSI which is moving up a support line. This is a monthly chart so have some patience.
I may be completely wrong with the prediction of the VIX moving higher, but with the inflation issue, global economic condition, stock markets crashing, companies preparing for a downturn, interest rates moving higher, the US Dollar Index (DXY) moving higher and crypto market crashing, I would assume my prediction may be on point.
Click on the chart below on why I exited the crypto and stock market in December 2021:
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
I Smell Opportunity, 6 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities are at an interesting juncture that should provide good trading opportunities. I can smell it.
➤ If we look at the $SPY chart of the S&P500 equity index, we can see that the price is in the midst of testing resistance levels. These resistance lines are probably the most solid since the start of the rally. I therefore foresee the chance that price may settle or retrace downwards from current levels.
➤ Friday price action was a great example. The price was "trapped" entirely between the confluence of key levels. The question is where does it go next?
➤ For me, I really don't know nor do I care. All I really care about is if it will provide trading opportunities long or short. I can see both scenarios playing out. Perhaps a short opportunity first. This then opens up the second set of opportunities offering the high conviction trades. Either prices weaken further with continued selling pressure or the Bulls come in and support the price to pump prices higher.
➤ Conclusion: I'm ready to play.
VIX is doji'ing on a very interesting spot. 🤔
I noticed last week that the VIX is just chillin on a trendline that goes back 5 or so years. It also closed a doji on the weekly on top of said line. This happens all while we are at major resistance on almost anything tradable.
Bears about to show the claw? 🐻 Comment below!
Relation between NIFTY and INDIA VIXNSE:NIFTY NSE:INDIAVIX
Draw important support / resistance levels in India VIX chart (daily time frame, use line or area chart).
For trading use one hour or 30 minutes time frame. Trade when there is Break down or Break out of VIX at support resistance level
Pivotal week (or 2) ahead for the S&P The S&P500 / ES is sitting right at a critical point which I believe will break this week or next
The weekly chart shows that the S&P is now above most key moving averages, including the 200 moving average (displayed in black), the 20 moving average (displayed in white) and the 50 moving average (displayed in yellow). Also it has broken above the upper resistance trend line (displayed in red), these are all obviously very bullish but a few major headwinds remain that may upset this upwards momentum.
Price last week touched the 100 moving average (displayed in blue) but then rejected back down to end up finishing right at the Fib Extension 0.236 level. Ironically the 100 moving average has been a menacing level that has been difficult for the S&P to break through, 7 weeks ago and 21 weeks ago exactly the same touch and rejection of the 100ma occurred. Further to this we are about to enter one of the most bearish seasonal periods of the year for the S&P, I've included a seasonality indicator in my chart which shows 3 year, 6 year and 9 year tendencies and they all have exactly the same downwards pattern starting in February. The indicator below the Seasonality scan is RVI (relative volatility index), this is good for measuring both the volatility along with direction. Inline with what the market has been doing the past few years the RVI had been generally trending up and created a support line that was largely unbroken from end 2018 - Jan 2022, and since been broken the RVI is now showing a downwards trend and instead of a support line there is a resistance level over head that price is close to approaching.
The last indicator on the chart includes Larry Williams Vix_Fix which had turned red recently (2 bars/weeks), signalling we are in historically low volatility period in the VIX, most traders know that large moves often follow periods of very low and/or contracting volatility. This last indicator also includes a display for the bond yield curve and this is currently shown in the maroon/deep red which confirms a fairly long period inverted curve which is also known as a precursor sign of recession and market sell off.
The recent closed weekly candle was an indecision candle so this week that is coming or perhaps the one that follows should tell a lot about where the market will be heading over the course of the next few months
A bullish bias would mean
Price this coming week will disregard the seasonal bearish tendency and instead break above both the 100ma and the 0.236 Fib and close the week above these levels.
A bearish bias would mean
Price has closed back below the resistance level on the chart (both price resistance & RVI resistance) and price has tracked the normal declining seasonal pattern that plays out around this time of the year.
I see more chart evidence of a coming decline than an incline but in any case we still need to wait for direction confirmation which should look like one of the above scenarios. So it is time to pay very close attention to the charts and In the week that follows the market direction confirmation signal I suspect we will see some large and fast moves of either sideline money coming into the market to cause one last blow off top before some kind of recession sell off later in the year or heavy selling as these key levels get rejected and the seasonal sell of takes hold.
Gme looking good
Some people have been worried about NYSE:GME and if the cycles were dead. Good news gme looks to still be on the cycle. Bad news Nov opex was in November. Shocked Pickachu face. After falling from the August run up gme stayed flat (1) while other meme stocks like NYSE:AMC and NASDAQ:TSLA fell (2). Because gme didn't get shorted it had a weak barely noticeable Nov Opex. however, as you can see other meme stocks did have a Nov opex (and you can even see gme did too albeit a small one). No shorting no opex. This may be disappointing for people still waiting for it. Good news however is after Nov opex all the meme stocks got shorted (3) and we seem to in the middle of bouncing from that (4). In short gme was dead sept 7th -dec 7th but now appears to be back on track.
Gamestop correlates strongly with inverse VIX. Correlation broke on Oct 31st 2022 for some reason and restored Jan 6th 2023.I believe we may be playing out the Vix movement from Oct 31st onwards delayed. VIX has gone down since then so we should go up.Vix has kept its trend and should go lower today and Gme should pop today. I believe we may be playing out delayed price action from when correlation broke (labeled with a 4) Would like to see a 10% up day and to break 24 today. Other meme stocks have rebounded to the price level they were at before they got shorted down. I expect gme to eventually get back to $25-$27. Depending on optiion interest that could cause a large run up past that. Also, ftd's have started on gme again stocksera.pythonanywhere.com and are due in febuary further helping gme. all in all, it's been a rough several months, but everything is looking really good for a run on gme soon.
VIX vs BTC - Inverse Correlation for price prediction $BTC vs $VIX and $SPX vs $VIX the inverse correlation of VIX to SPX is no secret, and applying VIX onto a BTC chart shows how much BTC is more and more correlated to the SnP, this is a good tool to have in any traders arsenal. The beauty of VIX is that it is based on expiring index options, which makes it relatively accurate in estimating volatility. I think SPX and BTC correlation will increase especially this year as the markets will become more and more liquidity strapped.
For extra info
a- The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index representing the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days.
b- Investors use the VIX to measure the level of risk, fear, or stress in the market when making investment decisions.
c- Traders can also trade the VIX using a variety of options and exchange-traded products, or they can use VIX values to price derivatives.
d- The VIX generally rises when stocks fall, and declines when stocks rise.
Source: www.investopedia.com
Breaking Loose, 3rd Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ ...almost but not yet. There are still some short-term resistance levels to surpass. However, the momentum is there. *After-hours sell-off as I write due to earning reports from Apple, Google etc.
➤ The Dow30 Bluechip stocks are really being left behind in this latter part of the rally. Or we could say the NASDAQ is just catching up on lost time. There is some sector rotation here and the rally is not all that uniform despite many commenting on the "strong" breadth i.e. wide participation of stocks in the rally.
➤ I'm expecting at least a pause in proceedings to work off the extreme overbought conditioins. I currently hold no position.
➤ Conclusion: This may be nearing the end of the short squeeze.
VIX at a key level here $VIXTVC:VIX
Just something to keep an eye on here as this market rally has been red hot this week
VIX is at a demand line dating back to 2018 and is seeing a reaction
Be interesting to see what kind of follow thru this sees in the coming weeks.
Happy Trading
Meta and Tesla Priced richly again, dow ignored, fear lowForward growth seems to be priced back into these hot high volume in the news stocks. Both Tesla and Facebook/meta have almost doubled in the last month.
Dividend dow is not shunned and ignored as hot stocks are back in style.
Fear in vix and junk bonds is low.
Everyone Believes What They Want to BelieveRealty != Belief
The secret to this market is to lower your expectation continually.
Bulls do not realize they are sitting in the largest bull trap ever setup.
Macro bottom still pending... it's more of the same: drop, consolidate, drop.
A wise Bera once said:
Resistance is infinite and unbounded.
When a level is broken, there will always be more resistance higher up.
Support is not though, support is capped at 0.
The Fed's view:
www.federalreserve.gov
What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing?
"It would be unprecedented for job vacancies (openings) to decline by a large amount without the economy falling into recession. We are, in effect, saying that something unprecedented can occur."
Lagging Crash
Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008.
The broader stock market did not begin its crash until a week later.
Everyone initially thought Lehman wasn't a systemic risk.
You say crypto crash can not crash stocks with a LAG?
The doom loop is accelerating.
Few understand this.
S&P & BTC Bearish AFS&P is stuck under strong trendline and not showing strength to breakout
Also VIX is getting ready to be green again and to destroy S&P, and the BTC
VIX Bullish AFVIX is getting ready to be green again and to destroy S&P, and the BTC
Volatile blood is getting ready to enter the play without a doubt
