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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

All To Play For, 15 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The price reaction post the Inflation data was anti-climatic. Equities started lower but ended higher. Overall, slightly down from the previous day. ➤ Don't be fooled by my chart that has plotted an almost perfect trajectory for the price path thus far. This will most certainly be wrong. I'm no Nostradamus. ➤ For Traders like myself who are holding a short position, the rise over the last three days has not managed to surpass the large down day on 9th Feb. Bulls are finding it tough. Of course, that doesn't prevent prices from surging higher, it just shows that the Bears are still in the game. The game is wide open, it is all to play for. ➤ I would need to see the VIX reverse course quick smart though. It collapsed today. A solid up tick is needed for the Bear thesis to play out. ➤ Conclusion: It is still going to plan.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Going to Plan, 14 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Happy Valentine's Day to all my Copiers and Followers! Even if the market is showing you no love, I still will! 😘 ➤ Equities moved higher Monday. It was expected but I didn't know to what extent. Nor does it matter unless it moved beyond the levels as set out in my post yesterday: "The Perfect Trade Plan". See related idea below. ➤ Today's aggressive move higher does not alter our plan, if anything, it is going to plan. It can be argued that today's move was pretty meaningless. It was completely encapsulated by the large down bar on 9th Feb, it tells us very little of what happens next. You could further argue that this is a "trap" to allow the big players to exit their holdings or to put on more shorts at a better price. Very much like the bullish price action on 7th Feb. It all has to do with the upcoming main event. ➤ Inflation data Tuesday will almost certainly reveal if the above is true. It will probably also mark the make or break moment for my trade plan. A daily close above 417 on the SPY or if VIX collapses below 17 will force me out of my position with a loss. ➤ Conclusion: Still going to plan.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
The PERFECT Trading Plan, 12 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Here's my plan of attack for the early part of next week if all things go according to plan: ⦿ I am already holding a small short position in the equity market. I'm looking for further downside to play out in the next couple of weeks. The major catalyst is the US inflation data release this coming Tuesday. ⦿ As illustrated on my chart, this is the idealized path I would like to see the price take in accordance to my trade plan. I would like to see the price move flat or higher on Monday. This is very possible given that there might be further buying support flowing on from Friday. ⦿ On inflation data Tuesday, I would like to see equities sell-off. A sufficiently aggressive sell-off will provide me with the opportunity to add to my shorts to a maximum position size. ⦿ I would like to see prices continue falling for the remainder of the week and beyond. The primary price target would be down to 390 on SPY or 3900 on SPX500. ❓What can go wrong? ⤑ A lot. The second worst scenario is that Bulls take charge on the release of the inflation data and drive prices aggressively closing beyond 417 on the SPY or VIX collapses below 17. This will force me out of my position with a loss. Although It won't be disastrous given my small position size. ⤑ The worst scenario is after adding to a maximum position, price reverses aggressively higher beyond 417 on the SPY or the VIX collapses below 17. This will inflict maximum loss. ➤ Conclusion: It nevers goes to plan.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
2
The Last Supper, 10 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I’m no Trading God, but was today’s price action the Last Supper for the Bulls? Is the free flow of sweet wine about to be cut-off? Not sure if this reference was blasphemous, I plead for mercy. ➤ Equities opened the trading day aggressively higher but by the end of day it was a complete 180° reversal of fortune. What do I make of this? ➤ Clearly, the Bears would be encouraged by today's price action. Price has definitively closed back below the resistance zone. VIX has responded by moving back above 20 from where previous downtrends began in ernest. ➤ The only wrinkle and it may be a very short-term one is that the drop from the recent high is not a change in behaviour. i.e. this drop is nothing out of the ordinary. The two key observations for a change of behaviour are: ➊ out-sized bearish candle/bar or ➋ out-sized drop since the beginning of the intermediate bull trend (since Jan 2023 low) ❌ Neither of these has occurred (when comparing to the drop on 18th Jan). Of course, we just need another bearish day and we will easily fulfill observation ➋ ➤ NOTE: A change of behaviour does not mean a trend has ended. It is only a warning sign (the amber coloured traffic light) that something is afoot. ➤ I still hold a small short position. ➤ Conclusion: Plenty of Bulls are drunk, tell them not to drive - translation: just be careful
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Fight or Flight.TLT is the most interesting instrument for me to analyze. That's what has me concerned about the upcoming CPI. You know when you are flying a plane and the instruments all start flashing and making noises. That's what is happening the past week in equities, bonds and FX. Trends are THE most important factor in a traders arsenal. TLT trend follows liquidity. If liquidity is rising (TLT UP), risk is on, if liquidity is drying up (order book getting thin), risk moves to off conditions. TLT and S&P 500 Dealer Directional Open Interest (DDOI) gamma exposure is another measurement of liquidity. Liquidity over the past week has been under tight control and pulling back in cases like TLT. While we are seeing big distributions intraday in equities from short squeezes and earnings hit or misses, I'm not reading that in liquidity. It could be the fact that all 3 hedged equity funds are positive and support along with long call flows that reminisce in 2020-21 Bull Market. Underlying weaknesses may be lurking post CPI. If TLT breaks this trend line lower (< 103), it will likely be the earliest indicator that liquidity is drying up. TLT on a positive uptrend meant positive flows in indexes. The trifecta, Bonds, S&P and Hedge Equity Flows all supportive flows. It's the primary reason I was bullish at the the following point. DXY is another important trend to follow. If US wants to export inflation, it would start with a trend reversal higher. I expect DXY will come back down to test the 20D prior to CPI (FEB 14). That's when I think when the fireworks will begin, maybe a LEFT tail and maybe a RIGHT I missed the last CPI print in my series on Has It Peaked. This idea and the Window of Weakness idea are just primers for what is shaping up to be an explosive few weeks ahead VIX is acting different these past few weeks. I think we are at a Nadir on the VIX and this CPI print right in front of VIXperation/OPEX is when we'll know Higher for Longer or Viva la'Bull FEB 14 - CPI FEB 15 - VIXPERATION FEB 18 - OPEX FEB 20 - Exchange Holiday So lots of potential for Volatility. Vol should be well supplied into CPI and depending on direction and how dealers are positioned for VIX/OPEX should see larger distributions than normal. Good if you're a convexity trader. FEB 20 Holiday is important because it's happening during a window of weakness while technical flows will be weakest until March.
NASDAQ:TLT
by SPYvsGME
4
Lateral Thinking, 9 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities failed to keep the upward momentum. Today, it started lower and finished even lower. Despite that, the price action was not really meaningful. In technical speak, today was an example of an "inside" day, where all the price action was situated within the shadows of yesterday's large bullish bar. Therefore, we are none-the-wiser to what tomorrow brings. ➤ I hope through my daily communications with you, you are starting to get a better feel of my approach to trading. I'd like to think that I bring a form of lateral thinking. This is my trading edge afterall. ➤ That being said, I'm thinking quite literally that markets have a high chance of moving more laterally. Price is trapped around the resistance zone. So far, there is nothing specific in the price action that displays immediate signs of a trend reversal lower. It just looks like the market is biding it's time prior to making the decisive move. The more it trades side-ways, the greater the odds of the market moving higher. ➤ I hold a small short position. ➤ Conclusion: I hope my thinking is wrong.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Gme run this week? As stated previously in my last Idea NYSE:GME has been following a clear pattern for nearly 3 weeks now. Making new highs every 4 trading days(H1,H2,H3). Last high was made 2/2 so 4 trading days from that would be this Wednesday (H4). I expect to trade flatish/down Monday and flatish/down early Tuesday and to start going up mid/late Tuesday. I believe we can reach $25 on the next new high and when we do hedging of the option chain will cause a large run up. We are very strongly inversely correlated with TVC:VIX and as long and it keeps its downtrend I expect gme to continue its uptrend. I am hoping gme will do something similar to what NASDAQ:UPST did last week. It too was following the same pattern gme was. When it made a new high in the $20 range it exploded upwards to $25. I believe that happened because of the heavy options interest at $20. gme was trading at 25 for 3 months so I'm hoping the options at 25 can rocket it forward. Interestingly even after breaking out upst still appers to be following the same pattern it has been indicating its run might not be over. I will be keeping an eye on it. Failure to delivers on gme and etfs it is in have picked up again stocksera.pythonanywhere.com and the starting date of covering them is this week. In addition, the put/call ratio on gme has become very call skewed www.barchart.com adding to my belief the option chain can propel us higher. While I am hoping gme runs this week I will be happy as long as it maintains its uptrend. I would keep an eye on vix and other "meme stocks" and if they are staying on trend I will remain bullish on gme. I have noticed that the general pattern for the next leg up is 1. vix goes down hard 2.gme iv goes down hard 3.gme goes up. So if you are thinking of entering in an options position, I would wait for gme iv to crush as a signal to buy.
NYSE:GMELong
by J2DP
4
Bulls Never Say Die, 8 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities went full Bull mode today despite some intra-day volatility. It looks like it wants to surpass the recent high. ➤ There's really only one thing that could stop it and that is the super overextended nature of this Bullish move since the Oct 2022 bottom. Perhaps it is not really "stoppable". It may just be some lateral price movement to work off the exuberant enthusiasm prior to jumping higher. ➤ I am still holding my small short position until I get the exit signal to get out. For example, a daily close above the recent peak will definitely do that. ➤ Conclusion: Optimism may fade but it usually comes back. It rarely dies.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
1
are we bottoming out in vix?its too early to tell the weekly picture, but the daily and 4hr appear to be turning the tide for the broader market in a bearish direction, and that mean uvxy could see high $5s. if we do create a top in spx, and uvxy does begin to climb today i would only at first assume its a temporary pop, but if we truly start unravelling uvxy could see high $6s. count on the market and spx returning to bull as long as were in this weekly inside bar scenario. i am all cash until we pick a direction.
CBOE:UVXY
by cerealpatterns