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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

S&P500 against VIX showing some bumpy road aheadThis is the S&P500 index (SPX) against the Volatility Index (VIX). We've charted VIX's Cycles since June 2020 where the bottoms are in essence alarms and signals to be on the look out to sell and take profits on stocks while the tops are buy signals to enter the market. Based on that model, VIX appears to be entering the rising curve, meaning that a sell alarm is starting to ring. Given the fact that the price is approaching a Resistance level where it was rejected two times already, we may see a decent drop. If the drop isn't delivered and it was just the two day quick pull-back of January 18/19, then the Cycle pattern may start to invalidate the strong drops of the Bear Cycle and instead mimic the blue-print of the 2020 - 2021 small pull-backs. That would indicate that the Bear Cycle is over and that S&P500 has officially entered the new Bull Cycle. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
1
SPX 2001-2003 FractalBearish convictions: -DXY (dollar index) is currently in a falling wedge (bullish) pattern sitting on very strong support around 100 -102. Furthermore, while the DXY took a sharp dive, we did not see so much of a reaction in the SPX and across other equity markets. -VIX (volatility index) is currently sitting at strong support around $18 - $20 with bullish divergence on MACD and RSI. -If the Feds even so much as to mention a hawkish word about raising interest rates higher than 5% - 5.25%. -Supreme Court will reconsider Biden Admin's student debt relief on February 28. This will decide whether student loans will resume 60 days after June 30th or not. -Resuming student loan payments, along with a softening housing market will reduce consumer spending growth on goods and services. This would be good for inflation but overall bad for equity markets as consumers would be less likely to invest. Not financial advice. Trade safely!
SP:SPXShort
by YoungSlav
2
The Last Chance Saloon, 27th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ It turns the Bulls were not very exhausted after yesterday's recovery. Equities burst higher but not before filling the opening gap. This is a good sign that move higher is supported. ➤ For the Bears out there, it is the last chance to hold out. Price is approaching a very significant technical level. Please refer to my interpretation on the monthly chart (see related Ideas) ➤ The important level is the 410-411 resistance zone. This has been the graveyard for many a Bullish move. The ability to close above it on a monthly basis would be very meaningful. This is also the last chance for the VIX to hold it's key level. ➤ I currently hold no position. ➤ Conclusion: Don't get in the way of a Bull's run until it has run its race.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
The Boy Who Cried Wolf, 26th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities recovered after a very weak start to end the session flat. It was a case of the Boy Who Cried Wolf. ➤ This counts as the second time in recent days that equities has refused to fall when it ought have. The first cry was on 18th January. Despite the fall that day, equities recovered quickly unable to gain downside momentum. Today was the second cry but there was again no wolf. ➤ The price is still playing chicken with the 200-day moving average. Similar to what occurred during Nov/Dec 2022. Today, there was a lot of effort used to support the recovery. That recovery was only sufficient to break-even. Having spent all that energy, how much is there left in the tank? ➤ I currently hold no position. ➤ Conclusion: Fool me once, fool me twice...
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
A Pause, 25th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities ended slightly weaker and traded in a narrow range (for once). There are a lot of games being played at the widely watched 200-day moving average that the S&P500 now sits. ➤ There's an overall contraction in the price swings in recent months due to the sideways moving market (since at least November 2022, stretching to May 2022). This flat-lining of movement is a process of building up energy for the next large directional move whatever that may be. ➤ Many people have observed the formation of the inverse head & shoulders chart pattern (a bullish formation). I'm not a big fan of these formations as they are unreliable but more so the construction of the current pattern looks "non-textbook" if I can put it politely. ➤ I currently hold no position. ➤ Conclusion: Pause in the action but not for long. MrStocky The Professional Loss Maker
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
A Trader's Dilemma, 24th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Another bullish day. Price has reversed the recent weakness and set a new short-term high. Yet, I'm not buying into it right now. Why? Well it's not because of my fundamentally (misplaced?) bearish view. I don't trade on those views. I trade by reading the short-term technicals. I'm completely agnostic when it comes to being long or short. ➤ Today there is no trade because I am faced with a Trader's Dilemma and it's forcing a strong debate within. ➤ The price setup is NOT something I've seen from years past (at least 13yrs in my data). It looks very much like a bullish continuation in the short-term but with bearish overtones too. If I went bullish, I would be using a max. position size. If bearish, half size. So, what's the optimal decision? If I had to force a trade, I would be a buyer. That means using max. risk on an untested trade set-up. Perhaps reducing the trade size is better? That would mean giving up on large profits knowing I'm more likely to be right than wrong. ➤ I've made my decision and have decided to restrain myself in making the trade because this trade set-up is "novel". In cricketing terms, I'm letting the ball "pass through to the keeper" and ignoring my greed for making money. At the end of the day, I'm not "forced" to make the trade. I can choose to not play. There's always another opportunity with a better set-up. ➤ I currently hold no position. ➤ Conclusion: What would be your decision if faced with this situation?
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
1
VIX Daily 01/23/2023In this chart of the VIX daily I have changed the final pattern to a Bullish Flagish pattern. I anticipate the VIX to rise also due to macro conditions, and Data Flow, and of course Earnings. Earnings I am back and forth on since Bank reporting..... Thats going to be a big tell IMO. This pattern morphed since last week when I was calling it a more of a bullish triangle which I pointed out didn't make a lot of sense to me, as the FOMC is doing their darndest to hold back the market, and wqith all the PCE and other data dump this week I expected a rising VIX, not falling.
TVC:VIXLong
by Markets-Sniper
VIX move on Friday while SPY continued higherThis could be a very telling sign for what to expect on Monday. While the SPY (and generally the market) continued to trade higher on Friday (1/20), the VIX hit a low early mid-day and then moved higher into afternoon trading. Another thing to remember is that Friday was the LEAPs options expiration that started over 2 years ago for that expiration. It is typical for markets to be a little volatile during that week of a major expiration, but doesn't really go anywhere; kinda like we saw this past week where we we made another weekly high on Tuesday then sold down pretty good Wednesday/Thursday and then on Friday ended the week with a bull retracement. Now that a major options expiration is done, wouldn't be surprised if we started to see a more directional move on the market and if the VIX action on the second half of the day on Friday is any tell, bearish could be the direction. Bar chart: SPY Orange line: VIX
AMEX:SPYShort
by Options_Trading
2
Missed It By That Much! 20th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Yes, that's exactly what happened with my long position. A large move higher in equities the day after I got out (for a loss). That basically sums up why Trading can sometimes be so frustrating. These days I just take a deep breath and move on. My younger-self would have tore my hair out! ➤ So what does this bullish move mean? Very little in my opinion. It's just another choppy day. We need to see if the S&P500 can break above 4000 or it goes back below 3900. A move in either direction should determine the primary trend for the next week(s). ➤ I currently hold no position. ➤ Conclusion: Standing by to see which direction the market favours.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
What me worry?Buy high, sell never, stonks always go up. right? Either everyone has sold and no one needs put options, or could there be a crowded bus is short puts and covered calls as an asset class? Did so many years of low rates push everyone into becoming put sellers and covered call players? lots of options chains are showing very little put skew, as in very little respect to downside potential. And skew risk is to the upside in many names. Are we that bullish? SPY SPX SPX/GOLD VIX
SP:SPX
by optionfarmers
2
Back to Normal, 20th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities prices continued to fall. Two price gaps were closed. A lower gap that formed on the 10th Jan and the opening gap from Thursday trade. S&P500 has fallen below the support level at 390. ➤ I think it is clear that price has just formed a lower high. I could argue the short-term downtrend from the Dec 2022 high has been established. This counters the uptrend from the Oct 2022 low but re-aligns with the long-term downtrend since Jan 2022. Did you get that? ➤ Another thing that has re-aligned is that the Tech/Growth/Small cap stocks finally underperformed the DJIA and broader S&P500. This is "normal" behaviour under a risk-off period. Does that mean we are back to 2022 mode? ➤ I closed my long position with a loss as price didn't respond like I wanted. What I want and what the market gives are two separate things. Price may still bounce but I'm not going to risk it at this stage. ➤ Conclusion: Next trade is most likely an opportunity to go short. Standing by.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro