$DXY @ strong support$DXY is @ range we expected, took its sweet time
NOW what?
$VIX @ lower end
#Yield also at low end
$NDX $SPX $DJI $BTC $ETH have had nice runs
#Stocks & some #crypto need breather
VIX CBOE Volatility Index
VIX with Historic Spikes AnnotatedLarge spikes in VIX since 1990 highlighted with notes showing the events that caused them. Helps put into perspective where we are now in the markets. The yellow line shows the approximate low of VIX since the pandemic started and the red line shows an approximate line of best fit of when the VIX was low, and markets were calm since 1990.
VIX dropping hard today... maybe just a little too hardSeems like the market is still complacent to me. VIX breaking the December low and the market not getting above its December high, seems interesting to me... maybe like a divergence.
Collapse,13th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ The inflation number was as expected but managed to inflate equity prices higher. The small cap Russell 2000 leading the charge. This is a big change when the blue-chips were leading throughout last year. Tech is making up good ground as well.
➤ VIX collapsed below 20. Sending a strong signal to "fear" no more. Perhaps that is correct. Looking at the S&P500 chart, there is little resistance all the way up to 410. It is currently battling the 200 day moving average. For many investors, a clear break above this MA is a strong Bullish signal.
➤ I remain long with a small position.
➤ Conclusion: Watch the VIX, it is in the pink zone where Bears have instilled fear in recent times.
LONG VIX: 2023 TRADE OF THE YEAR!LONG VIX:
Add/ double down 19.1, 16.5, 15. Then on any pops remove the higher bids.
Target is 40/50/55 depending on macro circumstances.
VVIX is also systemically undervalued. the vol space is primed for green dildo. volmaggedon was Q12018. i expect something similar. all we need is 0.5%mom core inflation on jan 12th or feb 15th and this will print imo.
$VIX closing in on lower part of trendCOPY paste from elsewhere
Let's talk $VIX again
Different #VIX views:
1 Weekly hasn't closed above grey lines
Long term uptrend
Daily WEAK
2
In symmetrical triangle
Bottom part of trend is likely 2b tested
RSI still positive
IMO would reduce longs @ low end & see how it plays
$SPX #SPX #stocks
VIX Daily Breaking Down out of large Symmetrical trianglePretty large pattern. I wanted to draw it as a diamond reversal pattern, but it was more so because i expected the SP500 to drop not rally today. Nope... Trust the patterns. Lets see how low the VIX can go. It was in the 19's when I published this.....
Us vixUs near to support level
Support level zone at 20.56
The falling vix shows their is no fear among masses globally regards to inflation and results of corporate upcoming
Just a view ask your financial advisor before buying on my view
For educational purposes
SPX Gap Filled - Day Before CPI Release for December SPX Gap Filled - Day Before CPI Release for December
VIX at 21
Leaning overshoot of trendline before rejection from possible higher core CPI
2% MORE PLEASE,12th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ S&P500 accelerated higher with full confidence. Gapping up and finishing at the high of the day. All we need now is another 2% more!
➤ Why 2%? It's simple. For most Investors, that would take their 2023 returns to around 5-10%. The current interest rate is around 4-5% pa. All you need to do is exit equities and stick all the money on deposit at the bank...an easy double digit return for the year. Don't worry about 2022...that's ancient history.
➤ I remain long with a small position.
➤ Conclusion: Yes, I'm just kidding, that's not how investing works...NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
A VIX play for newsLook what happened to VIX right after December's CPI release. Equity and bond markets reacted positively, so VIX tanked... but then bounced most of the way back by 12:30.
Traders who are long and want to hedge news could try this play:
Set stops for their longs and buy an appropriate amount of VIX.
If the markets tank, expect VIX to advance strongly, and take a profit as soon as you can.
If the markets rip, wait for VIX to dump and bounce and sell the bounce.
$VIX close to bottom part of rangeHard 2b bear, yet so much NEG DATA
Doesn't make sense, does it?😄
$VIX Long Trend being threatened?
$TNX & 2Yr #yield hovering, higher lows
Getting weirder
US #Dollar $DXY @ level we called few months ago
Things about to get interesting!
#stocks #crypto #gold #silver #bonds
Beware of the vix. I would love to dive into more depth here, but I'd really have to start doing a consistent video series for that. I've been watching time cycles which I've charted on the vix and the SPX for a while and there's a very important region coming up near the end of January.
Those unfamiliar with cycle analysis should go study it a bit as this post won't explain it much. All I'll say is there's a trough/cycle end region coming up near the end of January or very early February, on the vix. The vix charts are messy and cycles are *not* perfect in real life, which is why you have to find a date range and watch price action closely around that time.
My overall picture on the S&P500 is bearish long term still, even after all of this. However, that does not mean it won't still go through big relief rallies first.
In fact, the S&P500 is due for a relief rally, some individual stocks already bottomed last year, some are bottoming now, and some have not bottomed yet. That's the problem with stocks, and index funds, that various stocks, usually by market cap, bottom at different times, and some may start moving up while the big ones continue dragging indices down. In times like this, it is in my personal opinion (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE) that it's better to pick your own basket of stocks than to go with an index fund at this time.
Watch the cycles, they are broad ranges, but something is likely brewing in the vix by early February.
***This is not financial advice, and should not be taken as such what so ever. These comments are a reflection of my personal opinions and charting and should not be used in any way to make financial decisions. Do your own DD***
Excitement, 11th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ S&P500 reversed yesterday's price action. The excitement is building and it's not because of the inflation data.
➤ Wyckoffians will know what I'm talking about. The recent price action post break out of the small consolidation phase over the last couple of weeks is a classic looking Bullish/Accumulation pattern. It's almost textbook perfect. If it all goes to plan, prices are poised to explode higher.
➤ I remain long with a small position.
➤ Conclusion: Becareful of perfection.
What have we here? 10th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ S&P500 tried and failed to break the 390 level. It was a thing of beauty if you were a neutral or positioned short. If you were long...🤬🤯🤦♀️
➤ All is not lost. The price did not break back into the consolidation (blue rectangle). The Bulls should still be favoured. It is usual for the price to retrace the break out to test that the break is true. You can refer to yesterday's note about a false break.
➤ I reduced my long position.
➤ Conclusion: The market is anxious. It wants to go up but it's unsure if it should.
EEM: retesting 0.61 and heading lowerEmerging markets is completing a complex correction from an Elliot wave point of view.
The first leg of the C wave started in May21 and is currently retracing before heading lower.
Dollar index broke out and is now retesting the top of its previous range going back till '15.
Secondly EEM and Dollar index are inverse correlated when the market is trending.
VIX lift-off will coincide with this second leg.
The Real Test...9th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ S&P500 marched higher to finish above the consolidation phase that I have mentioned in previous posts. The real test is if the price can hold above the breakout.
➤ In order to do so, the Bulls will need to overcome the first hurdle at the 390 level on the SPY. This is not the strongest of hurdles. Price has sliced through this level (up and down) on numerous occasions. It is therefore not the most reliable.
➤ A failure to hold would see prices reverse back into the consolidation. This would not be a good sign and I think the Bears would be encouraged to take advantage to push prices down to 371 at the minimum.
➤ I currently hold a moderately sized long position.
➤ Conclusion: The bulk of the action may centre around the US inflation data on Jan 12th along with the start of earnings season.
VIX is reapeating the patternA rule of 2 gives a perfect VIX long setup into Q1 on 2023 rally.
The markets are not over with the downside and VIX didn't get even one bottoming signal in 2022. It was intermediate bottoms, but no panic
Im going to add more VIX calls, Apr expiration this coming week.
Its in consolidation mode and should end soon with the breakout
VIX in DIAMOND BUTTOMS!!!!!On the VIX Volatility index , I have observed a diamond pattern, which suggests that the current instability in market sentiment is likely to lead to a rise in market prices. Based on this, I decided to open a long position at the entry price of USD 21.21. I have set the Stop Loss level at USD 19.53 so that if market prices turn worse than expected, I can close the position with minimal loss. And I set the Take Profit at USD 24.26 so that if the market prices reach a certain level, I can automatically close the position at the best possible price. It is important to note that this is only my own observation and does not constitute investment advice. Everyone should make decisions in the financial markets at their own risk.
VIXM | Incoming Volatility | LONG The fund seeks to meet its investment objective, by taking long positions in VIX futures contracts. It will also hold cash or cash equivalents such as U.S. Treasury securities or other high credit quality, short-term fixed-income or similar securities (such as shares of money market funds) as collateral for Financial Instruments and pending investment in Financial Instruments.
VIX Trend As we can see today the SPY bounced up from it's trendline in the morning, breaking out on a major resistance.
Two scenarios can happen tomorrow
#1
VIX bounces from the trendline causing the SPY to go down which would invalidate todays breakout and cause it to come back down. Considering that both the SPY and VIX have an opposite GAP it could go either way.
#2
VIX breaks the trendline and may come down to fill the GAP it has around the marked area. In this case we can confirm that the SPY can move up to fill it's GAP as well.
Trade safe ! I'd love to hear your input and thoughts on this.
Boxed In...6th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ S&P500 gapped lower and did not recover. It finished the day sitting on the support level. Price is clearly boxed in a consolidation phase as illustrated.
➤ Exponents of Elliott Wave Theory could interpret the current price action in two ways. In the Bullish case, price is developing an ABC corrective pattern after the 5 wave impulsive move off the October 2022 bottom. The Bearish interpretation is that price is in a wave 2 retracement as part of a 5 wave impulsive move lower from the December high. In either case, it points to a choppy period with a resolution soon.
➤ I currently hold a moderately sized long position.
➤ Conclusion: Who's right and who's wrong?
Beware the sleeping VIX volatility dragonVix measures option premium levels and is associated with large fear uncertain times. Bottoms in markets often have high vix level indicating investors desire for protection and large moves in the market.
