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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

Beware of the vix. I would love to dive into more depth here, but I'd really have to start doing a consistent video series for that. I've been watching time cycles which I've charted on the vix and the SPX for a while and there's a very important region coming up near the end of January. Those unfamiliar with cycle analysis should go study it a bit as this post won't explain it much. All I'll say is there's a trough/cycle end region coming up near the end of January or very early February, on the vix. The vix charts are messy and cycles are *not* perfect in real life, which is why you have to find a date range and watch price action closely around that time. My overall picture on the S&P500 is bearish long term still, even after all of this. However, that does not mean it won't still go through big relief rallies first. In fact, the S&P500 is due for a relief rally, some individual stocks already bottomed last year, some are bottoming now, and some have not bottomed yet. That's the problem with stocks, and index funds, that various stocks, usually by market cap, bottom at different times, and some may start moving up while the big ones continue dragging indices down. In times like this, it is in my personal opinion (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE) that it's better to pick your own basket of stocks than to go with an index fund at this time. Watch the cycles, they are broad ranges, but something is likely brewing in the vix by early February. ***This is not financial advice, and should not be taken as such what so ever. These comments are a reflection of my personal opinions and charting and should not be used in any way to make financial decisions. Do your own DD***
TVC:VIXLong
by thestructured
4
Excitement, 11th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ S&P500 reversed yesterday's price action. The excitement is building and it's not because of the inflation data. ➤ Wyckoffians will know what I'm talking about. The recent price action post break out of the small consolidation phase over the last couple of weeks is a classic looking Bullish/Accumulation pattern. It's almost textbook perfect. If it all goes to plan, prices are poised to explode higher. ➤ I remain long with a small position. ➤ Conclusion: Becareful of perfection.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
1
What have we here? 10th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ S&P500 tried and failed to break the 390 level. It was a thing of beauty if you were a neutral or positioned short. If you were long...🤬🤯🤦‍♀️ ➤ All is not lost. The price did not break back into the consolidation (blue rectangle). The Bulls should still be favoured. It is usual for the price to retrace the break out to test that the break is true. You can refer to yesterday's note about a false break. ➤ I reduced my long position. ➤ Conclusion: The market is anxious. It wants to go up but it's unsure if it should.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
The Real Test...9th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ S&P500 marched higher to finish above the consolidation phase that I have mentioned in previous posts. The real test is if the price can hold above the breakout. ➤ In order to do so, the Bulls will need to overcome the first hurdle at the 390 level on the SPY. This is not the strongest of hurdles. Price has sliced through this level (up and down) on numerous occasions. It is therefore not the most reliable. ➤ A failure to hold would see prices reverse back into the consolidation. This would not be a good sign and I think the Bears would be encouraged to take advantage to push prices down to 371 at the minimum. ➤ I currently hold a moderately sized long position. ➤ Conclusion: The bulk of the action may centre around the US inflation data on Jan 12th along with the start of earnings season.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
VIX in DIAMOND BUTTOMS!!!!!On the VIX Volatility index , I have observed a diamond pattern, which suggests that the current instability in market sentiment is likely to lead to a rise in market prices. Based on this, I decided to open a long position at the entry price of USD 21.21. I have set the Stop Loss level at USD 19.53 so that if market prices turn worse than expected, I can close the position with minimal loss. And I set the Take Profit at USD 24.26 so that if the market prices reach a certain level, I can automatically close the position at the best possible price. It is important to note that this is only my own observation and does not constitute investment advice. Everyone should make decisions in the financial markets at their own risk.
CAPITALCOM:VIXLong
by Fyber
VIX Trend As we can see today the SPY bounced up from it's trendline in the morning, breaking out on a major resistance. Two scenarios can happen tomorrow #1 VIX bounces from the trendline causing the SPY to go down which would invalidate todays breakout and cause it to come back down. Considering that both the SPY and VIX have an opposite GAP it could go either way. #2 VIX breaks the trendline and may come down to fill the GAP it has around the marked area. In this case we can confirm that the SPY can move up to fill it's GAP as well. Trade safe ! I'd love to hear your input and thoughts on this.
TVC:VIX
by eguerrero589
1
Boxed In...6th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ S&P500 gapped lower and did not recover. It finished the day sitting on the support level. Price is clearly boxed in a consolidation phase as illustrated. ➤ Exponents of Elliott Wave Theory could interpret the current price action in two ways. In the Bullish case, price is developing an ABC corrective pattern after the 5 wave impulsive move off the October 2022 bottom. The Bearish interpretation is that price is in a wave 2 retracement as part of a 5 wave impulsive move lower from the December high. In either case, it points to a choppy period with a resolution soon. ➤ I currently hold a moderately sized long position. ➤ Conclusion: Who's right and who's wrong?
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
Financial (in)stability mechanismsI have posted many times regarding volatility, especially the VVIX&VIX relationship. There are times when mechanisms need to activate to stabilize the economy, the psychology, the society. Recessions, wars, pandemics are periods that may justify such actions. It is wise for an investor to understand pressures and their direction. The motto "Don't fight the FED" and "Don't go against the trend" should be applied everywhere. A very rapid growth like in 2016 needed suppression, or else equities would have gone parabolic. Increasing yields makes growth harder. So the thought process back then was to suppress growth. I have some theories on why they wanted growth suppression. My ideas are extreme as they are, so I will try to put them into the suppressing field. After this parabolic growth that occured backstage, the recession nobody remembers ocurred. Yields suppress growth. Yields as a stability mechanism. Yield increases however can cause the opposite problem, money scarcity and liquidity problems. Yields cause recessions. Yields as an instability mechanism. _______________________________________________________ Now onto VIX. This year's recession was a time when financial stability had to occur to calm the markets. Back in 1929 we didn't have such mechanisms. The main chart, VVIX, shows us that there is substantial volatility management backstage. While I don't know the mechanisms for SPX and VIX stabilization, I have some theories. There are now massive hedge funds that can easily stabilize the equity/derivative market. VIX is a traded index, so hoarding contracts could in theory artificially change the VIX value. That is why I advised on volatility analysis by comparing VIX with volatility indicators. Hedge Funds (amongst other mechanisms) suppress volatility. Smart Money as a stability mechanism. I have posted before about the VVIX/VIX chart and how it can help us analyze SPX growth stability. So the question arises, how much and for how long have markets been manipulated? Surely in 1929 there was nothing one could do to stabilize the markets. That is why the recession was so deep and painful. We had no brakes. Manipulation/stabilization works in a consistent manner, when VIX peaks we suppress it. Suppression works by making VIX more predictable and less spiky. So inherently VIX manipulation decreases VVIX. With these charts we can see the stabilization mechanism in action. In the middle of the 2008 recession, in May-June we had this period when psychology briefly changed from pessimism to optimism. It is the denial phase of psychology. More about that in the "VIX | The effect on SPX" idea linked below. It is this vicious cycle during the VIX manipulation period that drags us further down inside the recession. VIX suppression cycle pulls economy into a vicious cycle. Stability mechanisms as instability mechanisms. _______________________________________________________ Onto some speculation: Perhaps we are in a long-term recession, since 2018. Again, look into "The Cake is a Lie" idea. Back in 2018 we were in a recession while equities were rapidly increasing. Now we are growing with equities dropping. This is nuts!!! Look at this VVIX/VIX chart comparison. In this chart I have hidden the price of VVIX/VIX and left just the EMA Ribbon. That is what we live through now. I drew a retracement from this specific point in time so as to better pinpoint the possible targets for VVIX/VIX. This chart suggests that we have never went through the crisis since 2018. I know this is crazy to say, but look at this chart below. RSI divergence confirms that. Perhaps the RSI of SPX correlates better to the VVIX/VIX chart. _______________________________________________________ Conclusion: So where does this leaves us? The fact that we have passed through two periods of upside down phenomena (2018 and 2021), when equities were increasing in a recession, and vice versa. This troubles me, as to how much is hidden. How big of a problem are we in and we have just not realized it yet. Moral of the story again? Don't believe what you are told and what you are shown. Don't listen to me as well. Do your own research. There may still be massive volatility ahead of us. VVIX is suppressed by more than 30%. If VVIX returns to normal levels ~120 and the VVIX/VIX targets are correct, this means that VIX will increase 3.5x from what it is now. As a number it makes sense because it takes us to the peak of the 2020 Black Swan. VIX has every possibility to go incredibly high. QE and Stabilization Mechanisms themselves have caused this fog. In our attempt to stabilize the economy, we have clouded our vision. The suppressing field will be shut off, on the day we have mastered ourselves. On the day we can prove, we no longer need it. And that day of transformation, I have it on good authority, is close at hand. -Dr. Breen
V
by akikostas
First Opportunity...5th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Once more optimism helped equities start higher in morning trade. Not surprisingly, that enthusiasm waned again as price filled the opening gap by falling back to the support level. The difference today was that the price recovered to close the day above the opening. ➤ Given the strength, I have taken this opportunity to open my first trades of the year. I'm looking for continued strength. The first hurdle is to break above the consolidation high at 387.3 on the $SPY, 390 is then the second hurdle. I don't expect to hold this buy position for long especially if price stays within the consolidation or fails to the downside. ➤ I currently hold a moderately sized long position. ➤ Conclusion: We're off to the races.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
New Year, Same Same...4th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ First day of US trading in the New Year displayed the same volatility as we have come to enjoy/get used to. A firm positive start filled with promise faltered to finish in the red. I hate to repeat it, but once again the support level held. ➤ A break up or down from this small consolidation/sideways market since mid-December should have some legs. The Bearish scenario should be favoured given the lack of bounce to the upside after the recent sell-off in recent weeks. ➤ Value/Mega-cap stocks like the DJIA index hover above the 200-day moving average. Still displaying strength relative to growth/smaller-cap stocks. ➤ I currently hold no positions. ➤ Conclusion: No let up on volatility. Opportunities are coming.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
1
SPX is set to revisit 2022 market lows in 2023For most of the last year, we held a bearish bias on the U.S. stock market. Starting in 2023, we maintain this stance and expect the market to dive deeper into a recession, dragging the price of SPX much lower from the current level. In fact, before the third quarter 2022 earning season, we outlined that the corporate earnings would reflect the worsening economic situation, with companies underperforming and slashing their outlooks. In 2023, we expect this trend to be even more prevalent, confirming the progression of a bear market toward its third stage, which is characteristic of distress selling. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the upcoming earnings season and look for clues of further deterioration on the corporate side of the market. In addition to that, we expect the persistence of elevated interest rates in the United States to weigh heavily on the global economy and debt servicing, paving a road for more trouble in the stock market. In accordance with that, we stick to our price target of 3 400$ for SPX. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX. The yellow arrow points to the impending bearish crossover between 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish Illustration 1.02 Interestingly, the new year begins with the opening gap in S&P 500 volatility index. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
18
New Year, New Start...3rd January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ S&P500 is still holding the support level. The longer this goes on, the more favourable it is for the Bears. Without a notable bounce after the steep sell-off since the December high, this shows that Bulls have little conviction to push prices higher. ➤ Still, it is a new year and historically January is a positive month due to the "January Effect". Of course, this didn't work out last January. ➤ The broader picture also shows a holding pattern. The S&P500 has made little headway up or down since May of 2022. It has spent much of that time gyrating +/-10% from current levels. The longer this pattern lasts, the larger the resulting directional move. We have no influence on that direction nor the timing. ➤ I currently hold no positions. ➤ Conclusion: It's going to be another great trading year (hopefully).
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
1
Timestamped Market Overview 1/1/23 Short Version of DXY and VIX 8:24-9:24 DXY 0:14 VIX 4:45 APPL 9:25 HSI 11:11 NASDAQ 12:10 BTCUSD 14:18 MARA 16:00 PHUN 16:47 NVDA 16:58 PYPL 18:15 TSLA 18:55 Closing words (Will be interesting to see where the dollar opens) 19:43 Overall I think things look fairly bullish. At least in the ability to regain some of the loses from the past two weeks. My big issue as always, is that the dollar is dropping more and more and stocks just are not going up as much as they need to in order to counterbalance. If the DXY hits 98-100 and bounces, then it wont be pretty for stocks if they haven't positioned themselves from a technical/chart perspective.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by TrendLINEBoys
1
DGSTACC: VIX PREDICTION!!!!DESCRIPTION: The chart above is an analysis of the VIX and it current pattern formation of a SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE FORMATION . POINTS: 1. Strong Support for VIX at 19.50 with current Demand Pocket Ceiling for FIB is at 25. 2. Move should occur by the 9th of January as price action would have to compress a lot more by then. 3. Current overall trend is a down trend that we have been seeing for VIX since early October. SCENARIO #1: If break of Symmetrical Triangle occurs towards the downside expect a bounce at 19.50 . SCENARIO #2: If break of Symmetrical Triangle occurs towards the upside expect resistance at 25 . *NOTE: NO RECESSION HAS EVER ENDED WITHOUT A VIX SPIKE TO 45 AT LEAST. TVC:VIX
TVC:VIX
by DGSTBROKERACC