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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

Opening gap, and VIX rising more than 9%We want to hint at the opening gap in the Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX), potentially foreshadowing big moves in the market. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
13
Market Top on CPI News - Santa might not come this yearThe price action of 2022 has been dominated by inflation related news. The start of the recent rally began with the October CPI print where an expected 8.3% came in at an actual 8.2%. This was a slight change but the first sign that inflation may have peaked and thus the Fed might pivot from their interest rate hikes. The market has loathed higher interest rates all year. Even if one did not know the details of the news the action of price was enough to see the signal of a rally. Price performed a false breakout to the downside (A Bullish Spike) seen on that October 13th Daily bar that kissed the 50% Retracement of the entire COVID Rally as seen on the Weekly chart below: This week yet another CPI news event triggered a Bearish Spike at the 50% of entire bear move from the ATH down to that October low. This in itself is a sign that the market will be bearish through the end of the year and into 2023. Additionally, the inverse relationship of the VIX TVC:VIX gives another clue that the market has turned. VIX for the third time this year has made a turn at the key Support of 20 which in both March and August signaled the highs for that period: I would like to believe in the Santa Claus rally for 2022 but the technical signs point to coal in equity stockings...
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by norok
Hmmm... 16th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I expected a move higher for equities given my long exposure. The exposure was relatively small reflecting an overall low level of conviction. The surprise to me was the extent of the negative move. This overshadowed my low exposure adding to the recent run of bad trading results. ➤ Technically, the uptrend since the October bottom looks to be over or on pause. The S&P500 has made a lower low. Price has fallen below the key support level at 390/3900 as well as the 50 and 200 day moving averages. A gap formed due to the lower open although it is small. Price need not levitate to close it. It may first gravitate lower to close the 10th Nov gap. ➤ More Bears will come out of hibernation if we see a lower high form to signal a medium-term downtrend that should last for a few months. This is within the context of the longer term downtrend of successive lower highs and lower lows since January. ➤ I currently hold zero exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I was wrong, all the excitement is not just for the Football World Cup Final.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
This was post 2 days ago, sorry been very busyApologize, will TRY & keep posting here as well. Hard to post with all the info and multiple charts we provide VIX filled gap much faster than anticipated... We resold the $VIX Puts bringing premium & do not mind getting put (January) 2 days ago Running $VIX working well DEMAND out of $ options, protection likely Even stated markets $DJI $SPX $NDX had more⬆️ ***Called 2 things that more than often DIVERGE*** If that doesn't deserve some credit Anyway Holding #VIX for long term, HEALTHY #stocks #options Eventual fill 2023
CBOE:VIX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Back to Square 1, 15th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ If we took a two day view of events, the S&P500 managed to make little headway up or down. Pre-data release, I eluded to people getting a bit over excited by bidding up the VIX. Of course, there was the excitement of the CPI data intra-day. That has all fizzled out for now. ➤ Now that all the excitement is over for another month, I think there is some positive bias here. I will put a bit of money to work. I'm looking for VIX to continue lower in the very short-term. ➤ That being said, all other indices such as the NASDAQ, RUSSELL, DAX etc all look very "messy" in terms of their price structure. I will leave them alone for now. ➤ I currently hold a +33% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: All the excitement is now for the Football World Cup Final!
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Make or Break Elliot Wave Count: The capitulationUpdate on my previous idea. It's still make or break for the bear market right now. Personally, I don't see us breaking out of the downtrend. But a fake-out was always possible, and this seems to be what we got following softer than expected inflation data. Note that this technical analysis is a small part of the bearish case. The wider macro-economic environment bear case speaks for itself. And in my opinion, nothing has changed. The fed remains hawkish and monetary policy remains contractionary. Recession indicators have clearly rung their alarm bells. I also don't think the 'fed pivot' is the ticket out of here - history shows that more downside follows in the stock market even after the fed pivots - this is because the effects of their policy decisions don't change overnight. Economies take time to respond. To conclude, I think there is still downside in the SPX, as shown in the chart. But, if we break out of the downtrend line with conviction, I would reassess. But I do think we are still to see the full effects of contractionary monetary policy in earnings and employment figures. But we shall wait and see. I'm long volatility via VIX Call options and CFDs. What do you guys think? *not financial advice.
SP:SPXShort
by Doge_Dean
4
spx 12-14 [morning update]good morning 👽 --- everyone is excited today, this is the big day which everyone's been waiting for! the rate announcement owo. right? --- the stage is perfectly set imo, beautifully orchestrated by the puppet master who runs this show. to put into the minds of the exploitable that we're simply going to go up the same way that we did yesterday. --- but there's a dark twist to the story, whatever jpow's gotta say is priced in. it's nothing new, we all know what he's gonna say - so a capitulation phase is expected, to raid the lows, to kill every single call which expires on friday followed by a grind up into the end of this year into the $4300 range. --- not financial advice homies, just my unique perspective \ opinion on the market. --- --- ✌
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Eloquent
Es 12-13 [evening update].good evening owo. --- few words before i share my thoughts. the market is a very complex instrument - there's never a sure path as it is completely controlled by human emotion, and complicated algorithms. we as traders must adapt to the ever-changing market conditions, or else we risk getting left behind (simple as that). there's a dozen different paths the market can take at any given moment, but it generally takes the path of mass destruction. >what i mean by this, is the market doesn't care about bulls nor bears - it'll simply do whatever it takes to suck away all of their money, collectively. --- that being said, i think a lot of people are very bearish overly pessimistic, terrified, and not expecting higher prices at this time. a very small portion of the market understands the lunar cycles, let alone what a "mercury retrograde is \ how it impacts the global markets". >not gonna give you an astrological lesson here - but you can keep an eye out for my videos where i dive deep into these topics sometimes. today's sharp rejection scared the last of the bull bro's, and has sent the bear bro's into full euphoria. what i think comes next, is an unexpected occurrence - a pure melt up phase to roughly $4300 which will make a very significant peak in this market for at least 30 days after it is reached. --- if you saw my video this morning, you know what my stance on the market is - and this is a slightly modified look to that particular idea as of today's price action. --- not financial advice, be very careful in the days ahead. ☝ 💰 👇 --- ✌
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Eloquent
Closing the Gap, 14th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture ➤ Inflation data came in softer than expected and equities prices jumped with enthusiasm. By end of trade, much of the gains were given up. ➤ The result of the inflation data resulted in a huge price gap between the previous day's close and market open. Gaps like these tend to get closed over time or like today...immediately. Note that there is still an lower unclosed gap created on 10th Nov also due to the CPI data. ➤ That being said, S&P500 set a new high since the 13th Oct bottom. I don't yet see any signs that this uptrend is done. The Fed interest rate decision and subsequent price movement could change this. A significant Bearish bar may result in a Change of Character. ➤ I currently hold NO exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Time to be patient.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
What's with the VIX? 13th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Today we saw the unusual situation where the VIX jumped significantly higher and the S&P500 equity index also rose higher. Normally, these two indices move opposite to each other i.e. higher level of volatility (often due to fear) leads to lower equity prices and vice versa. ➤ Astute watchers would have seen this occurrence a few times in the past. The last time I recall something like this happening was during August 2020. For five trading days, S&P500 moved exponentially higher whilst VIX jumped from 20 to above 30. S&P500 then reversed quickly and wiped out all the gains within a couple of days. ➤ I'm not expecting the above outcome with imminent Inflation data on 13th Dec and the Fed interest rate decision on 14th Dec. The relationship with the VIX and S&P500 should snap back very quickly. Perhaps what is happening is that there are big bets by both Bulls and Bears, bidding up the price of volatility. What may happen is a complete fizzle in equity prices with a lack of movement. ➤ I currently hold a -8% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Perhaps people's expectations are getting ahead of themselves.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro