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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

Back to Square 1, 15th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ If we took a two day view of events, the S&P500 managed to make little headway up or down. Pre-data release, I eluded to people getting a bit over excited by bidding up the VIX. Of course, there was the excitement of the CPI data intra-day. That has all fizzled out for now. ➤ Now that all the excitement is over for another month, I think there is some positive bias here. I will put a bit of money to work. I'm looking for VIX to continue lower in the very short-term. ➤ That being said, all other indices such as the NASDAQ, RUSSELL, DAX etc all look very "messy" in terms of their price structure. I will leave them alone for now. ➤ I currently hold a +33% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: All the excitement is now for the Football World Cup Final!
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Make or Break Elliot Wave Count: The capitulationUpdate on my previous idea. It's still make or break for the bear market right now. Personally, I don't see us breaking out of the downtrend. But a fake-out was always possible, and this seems to be what we got following softer than expected inflation data. Note that this technical analysis is a small part of the bearish case. The wider macro-economic environment bear case speaks for itself. And in my opinion, nothing has changed. The fed remains hawkish and monetary policy remains contractionary. Recession indicators have clearly rung their alarm bells. I also don't think the 'fed pivot' is the ticket out of here - history shows that more downside follows in the stock market even after the fed pivots - this is because the effects of their policy decisions don't change overnight. Economies take time to respond. To conclude, I think there is still downside in the SPX, as shown in the chart. But, if we break out of the downtrend line with conviction, I would reassess. But I do think we are still to see the full effects of contractionary monetary policy in earnings and employment figures. But we shall wait and see. I'm long volatility via VIX Call options and CFDs. What do you guys think? *not financial advice.
SP:SPXShort
by Doge_Dean
4
spx 12-14 [morning update]good morning 👽 --- everyone is excited today, this is the big day which everyone's been waiting for! the rate announcement owo. right? --- the stage is perfectly set imo, beautifully orchestrated by the puppet master who runs this show. to put into the minds of the exploitable that we're simply going to go up the same way that we did yesterday. --- but there's a dark twist to the story, whatever jpow's gotta say is priced in. it's nothing new, we all know what he's gonna say - so a capitulation phase is expected, to raid the lows, to kill every single call which expires on friday followed by a grind up into the end of this year into the $4300 range. --- not financial advice homies, just my unique perspective \ opinion on the market. --- --- ✌
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
Es 12-13 [evening update].good evening owo. --- few words before i share my thoughts. the market is a very complex instrument - there's never a sure path as it is completely controlled by human emotion, and complicated algorithms. we as traders must adapt to the ever-changing market conditions, or else we risk getting left behind (simple as that). there's a dozen different paths the market can take at any given moment, but it generally takes the path of mass destruction. >what i mean by this, is the market doesn't care about bulls nor bears - it'll simply do whatever it takes to suck away all of their money, collectively. --- that being said, i think a lot of people are very bearish overly pessimistic, terrified, and not expecting higher prices at this time. a very small portion of the market understands the lunar cycles, let alone what a "mercury retrograde is \ how it impacts the global markets". >not gonna give you an astrological lesson here - but you can keep an eye out for my videos where i dive deep into these topics sometimes. today's sharp rejection scared the last of the bull bro's, and has sent the bear bro's into full euphoria. what i think comes next, is an unexpected occurrence - a pure melt up phase to roughly $4300 which will make a very significant peak in this market for at least 30 days after it is reached. --- if you saw my video this morning, you know what my stance on the market is - and this is a slightly modified look to that particular idea as of today's price action. --- not financial advice, be very careful in the days ahead. ☝ 💰 👇 --- ✌
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
Closing the Gap, 14th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture ➤ Inflation data came in softer than expected and equities prices jumped with enthusiasm. By end of trade, much of the gains were given up. ➤ The result of the inflation data resulted in a huge price gap between the previous day's close and market open. Gaps like these tend to get closed over time or like today...immediately. Note that there is still an lower unclosed gap created on 10th Nov also due to the CPI data. ➤ That being said, S&P500 set a new high since the 13th Oct bottom. I don't yet see any signs that this uptrend is done. The Fed interest rate decision and subsequent price movement could change this. A significant Bearish bar may result in a Change of Character. ➤ I currently hold NO exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Time to be patient.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
What's with the VIX? 13th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Today we saw the unusual situation where the VIX jumped significantly higher and the S&P500 equity index also rose higher. Normally, these two indices move opposite to each other i.e. higher level of volatility (often due to fear) leads to lower equity prices and vice versa. ➤ Astute watchers would have seen this occurrence a few times in the past. The last time I recall something like this happening was during August 2020. For five trading days, S&P500 moved exponentially higher whilst VIX jumped from 20 to above 30. S&P500 then reversed quickly and wiped out all the gains within a couple of days. ➤ I'm not expecting the above outcome with imminent Inflation data on 13th Dec and the Fed interest rate decision on 14th Dec. The relationship with the VIX and S&P500 should snap back very quickly. Perhaps what is happening is that there are big bets by both Bulls and Bears, bidding up the price of volatility. What may happen is a complete fizzle in equity prices with a lack of movement. ➤ I currently hold a -8% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Perhaps people's expectations are getting ahead of themselves.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
NIFTY50 Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022NIFTY50 Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 1.87%, equal to 1.87% last week according to DVOL data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 23rd percentile, while according to INDIA VIX, we are on 8th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 1.8% movement Bearish: 1.55% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 24.2% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 18740 BOT: 18060 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 30% probability we are going to touch previous high 18740 66% probability we are going to touch previous low 18407 (already hit) Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 80% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Daily timeframe indicates 40% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index 4H timeframe indicates 13% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
NSE:NIFTY
by exlux
No, the VIX isn't riggedVIX at the weekly view. I didn't have time to write this last week due to a hectic schedule. Better late than never, I guess. The VIX broke the weekly resistance and bounced from the pivot zone (white line). A smaller VIX spike is in progress. No, I am not expecting above 40 at all. Maybe mid-30s at the higher end. It would be nice if I am wrong so more opportunities can arise... With the relatively big contango going on between VIX and VX, you would need extreme, precise timing in VX long entries and exits... I don't like babysitting trades at all - where there is no margin for error. I prefer trades were I am allowed to have plenty of margin for error (easier trades). It seems that my red line still lives on which I am very surprised. It should expire in the next quarter... but it's hard to pinpoint. Even then, cash (or cash equivalents) is still still king. Why is that important? The biggest VIX spikes were driven due to 1 particular reason: excessive demand for hedges in SPX /ES options. There is no "suppression" program as conspiracy theorists claim on social media. There is no mysterious group (often called "they") that magically pull levers to control all markets. That type of thinking is a losing mentality. That mentality means the person lost a lot and wants to blame someone else other than himself/herself. It's like a grown adult blaming all their problems on their parents. It's a very unhealthy coping mechanism. As stated before, there are 3 reasons why the VIX won't spike hard despite big red days in the SPX or ES. 1) When short-term bond yields are high and in an uptrend (bond prices in a downtrend), cash becomes king (not trash). So, when positions are being sold, the money is then flowed into cash equivalents like treasury bonds and securities. That means there is less money going to hedges. VIX doesn't get a big spike if there less demand for hedges. 2) When the bonds are sinking (yields rising), there is also sector rotation from growth to cyclical stocks. More specifically, dividend value stocks become more attractive. That just means money is just rotating among sectors within the SPX /ES. There are little hedges being bought during this rotation... as it's just trading shares for shares. 3) Hedges were meant to protect gains in investments. If the investment is at a loss, then there is no need for a hedge since that would unnecessarily tie up more capital. When cash is king, it makes more sense just to sell for tax-loss harvesting (to offset gains for tax purposes) than to add more stress with hedges. Imagine if you had $1 million in gains this year and you then owe over $400,000 in taxes. Most likely, you would worry about how to lower your tax liability. Tax-loss harvesting is a common method. Hedges were meant to protect gains so the investments would reach the long-term capital gains tax rate (which is significantly lower). It is NOT an inverse index nor some sort of fear index (which the media loves to label it as). Normally, if I see something who treats it that way, it's a red flag that they never bothered studying the VIX and VX. The VIX loves to punish anyone who is impatient or anyone didn't bother to understand its mechanics. Imagine the VIX like piloting a commercial or transport plane. If you don't understand the flight control systems thoroughly, you will likely crash the plane.
TVC:VIX
by Itsallsotiresome
1
Some Down Side to come Hey All, Just some food for thought but We have multiple charts showing some downwards pressure coming to markets all are shown below and with the CPI coming out this week and Fed rate decision we have the catalyst for another sell off. We have an Weekly engulfing bearish candle on the SP500, Vix bouncing off a falling wedge and trend line, US dollar also bouncing off support line and possible head and shoulders developing on it, Silver with negative divergence and both the 2yr and 10 yr bond yields bouncing off trend support lines. All of these charts point that pain is coming to the market. My belief is we will retest the previous low at least then find some buyers possibly rallying back from there or as indicated on the chart maybe another pump and dump lower but we wont know until we reach that point. I do think this will be the last leg down for a while until later in 2023 as company health and earnings will be the bigger question on the markets mind as rates will stagnate. This would follow previous rate and market movements in previous corrections for example rates in 2007 stagnated but markets then declined and recession in 2008, 1999 rates started to stagnate then in 2000 recession and market decline started same in 94-95 and 87. I feel the main charts to focus on at the DXY and the yields if the dollar creates the head and shoulders pattern we could see a strong short squeeze of the previous low on the SP500 and Dollar start falling but we will know if there is more pain after that if yields start stagnating or increase more.
TVC:SPXShort
by jackwheeler
There Is No VIX "Suppression Program"VIX at the weekly view. I didn't have time to write this last week due to a hectic schedule. Better late than never, I guess. The VIX broke the weekly resistance and bounced from the pivot zone (white line). A smaller VIX spike is in progress. No, I am not expecting above 40 at all. Maybe mid-30s at the higher end. It would be nice if I am wrong so more opportunities can arise... With the relatively big contango going on between VIX and VX, you would need extreme, precise timing in VX long entries and exits... I don't like babysitting trades at all - where there is no margin for error. I prefer trades were I am allowed to have plenty of margin for error (easier trades). It seems that my red line still lives on which I am very surprised. It should expire in the next quarter... but it's hard to pinpoint. Even then, cash (or cash equivalents) is still still king. Why is that important? The biggest VIX spikes were driven due to 1 particular reason: excessive demand for hedges in SPX/ES options. There is no "suppression" program as conspiracy theorists claim on social media. There is no mysterious group (often called "they") that magically pull levers to control all markets. That type of thinking is a losing mentality. That mentality means the person lost a lot and wants to blame someone else other than himself/herself. It's like a grown adult blaming all their problems on their parents. It's a very unhealthy coping mechanism. As stated before, there are 3 reasons why the VIX won't spike hard despite big red days in the SPX or ES. 1) When short-term bond yields are high and in an uptrend (bond prices in a downtrend), cash becomes king (not trash). So, when positions are being sold, the money is then flowed into cash equivalents like treasury bonds and securities. That means there is less money going to hedges. VIX doesn't get a big spike if there less demand for hedges. 2) When the bonds are sinking (yields rising), there is also sector rotation from growth to cyclical stocks. More specifically, dividend value stocks become more attractive. That just means money is just rotating among sectors within the SPX/ES. There are little hedges being bought during this rotation... as it's just trading shares for shares. 3) Hedges were meant to protect gains in investments. If the investment is at a loss, then there is no need for a hedge since that would unnecessarily tie up more capital. When cash is king, it makes more sense just to sell for tax-loss harvesting (to offset gains for tax purposes) than to add more stress with hedges. Imagine if you had $1 million in gains this year and you then owe over $400,000 in taxes. Most likely, you would worry about how to lower your tax liability. Tax-loss harvesting is a common method. Hedges were meant to protect gains so the investments would reach the long-term capital gains tax rate (which is significantly lower). It is NOT an inverse index nor some sort of fear index (which the media loves to label it as). Normally, if I see something who treats it that way, it's a red flag that they never bothered studying the VIX and VX. The VIX loves to punish anyone who is impatient or anyone didn't bother to understand its mechanics. Imagine the VIX like piloting a commercial or transport plane. If you don't understand the flight control systems thoroughly, you will likely crash the plane.
CBOE:VIX
by Itsallsotiresome
All About Support, 12th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The S&P500 equity index is holding above the key support level at 390/3900. A confident break below will result in a Change of Character (CHoCH) in the uptrend since the Oct low. ➤ A CHoCH results in a significant pause in the uptrend or a reversal of the trend. ➤ By holding above the support level, there would not be a CHoCH. Hence the bias is for continued upside. ➤ Inflation data on 13th and the Fed interest rate decision on 14th Dec are clear catalysts for price movement. ➤ I currently hold a -17% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Price is set-up perfectly for a binary outcome. I don't want to be heavily involved here.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX) | Goes GREEN/Bullish!It is no secret, when the major indexes move down, the VIX goes up. We can see the inverse correlation quite easily as the VIX had a major bearish wave, from Sept. to Nov., just as the DJI and SPX moved up. Now the VIX bottomed late November and this week closed above MA200 and EMA300. The first green week in multiple months. Ok, let's predict the future. The VIX will move first to 27.90, easily. It can go higher and hit 30 and also higher... 33. Midterm (1-3 months). Long-term (3-6 months or longer) ... Above 43 and even 58. Ok! Let's just wait, nobody can predict the future... And these are just codes... You are looking at squares and lines on a screen... Really? We will see! Thank you for reading. Namaste.
TVC:VIXLong
by AlanSantana
2