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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

There Is No VIX "Suppression Program"VIX at the weekly view. I didn't have time to write this last week due to a hectic schedule. Better late than never, I guess. The VIX broke the weekly resistance and bounced from the pivot zone (white line). A smaller VIX spike is in progress. No, I am not expecting above 40 at all. Maybe mid-30s at the higher end. It would be nice if I am wrong so more opportunities can arise... With the relatively big contango going on between VIX and VX, you would need extreme, precise timing in VX long entries and exits... I don't like babysitting trades at all - where there is no margin for error. I prefer trades were I am allowed to have plenty of margin for error (easier trades). It seems that my red line still lives on which I am very surprised. It should expire in the next quarter... but it's hard to pinpoint. Even then, cash (or cash equivalents) is still still king. Why is that important? The biggest VIX spikes were driven due to 1 particular reason: excessive demand for hedges in SPX/ES options. There is no "suppression" program as conspiracy theorists claim on social media. There is no mysterious group (often called "they") that magically pull levers to control all markets. That type of thinking is a losing mentality. That mentality means the person lost a lot and wants to blame someone else other than himself/herself. It's like a grown adult blaming all their problems on their parents. It's a very unhealthy coping mechanism. As stated before, there are 3 reasons why the VIX won't spike hard despite big red days in the SPX or ES. 1) When short-term bond yields are high and in an uptrend (bond prices in a downtrend), cash becomes king (not trash). So, when positions are being sold, the money is then flowed into cash equivalents like treasury bonds and securities. That means there is less money going to hedges. VIX doesn't get a big spike if there less demand for hedges. 2) When the bonds are sinking (yields rising), there is also sector rotation from growth to cyclical stocks. More specifically, dividend value stocks become more attractive. That just means money is just rotating among sectors within the SPX/ES. There are little hedges being bought during this rotation... as it's just trading shares for shares. 3) Hedges were meant to protect gains in investments. If the investment is at a loss, then there is no need for a hedge since that would unnecessarily tie up more capital. When cash is king, it makes more sense just to sell for tax-loss harvesting (to offset gains for tax purposes) than to add more stress with hedges. Imagine if you had $1 million in gains this year and you then owe over $400,000 in taxes. Most likely, you would worry about how to lower your tax liability. Tax-loss harvesting is a common method. Hedges were meant to protect gains so the investments would reach the long-term capital gains tax rate (which is significantly lower). It is NOT an inverse index nor some sort of fear index (which the media loves to label it as). Normally, if I see something who treats it that way, it's a red flag that they never bothered studying the VIX and VX. The VIX loves to punish anyone who is impatient or anyone didn't bother to understand its mechanics. Imagine the VIX like piloting a commercial or transport plane. If you don't understand the flight control systems thoroughly, you will likely crash the plane.
CBOE:VIX
by Itsallsotiresome
All About Support, 12th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The S&P500 equity index is holding above the key support level at 390/3900. A confident break below will result in a Change of Character (CHoCH) in the uptrend since the Oct low. ➤ A CHoCH results in a significant pause in the uptrend or a reversal of the trend. ➤ By holding above the support level, there would not be a CHoCH. Hence the bias is for continued upside. ➤ Inflation data on 13th and the Fed interest rate decision on 14th Dec are clear catalysts for price movement. ➤ I currently hold a -17% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Price is set-up perfectly for a binary outcome. I don't want to be heavily involved here.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX) | Goes GREEN/Bullish!It is no secret, when the major indexes move down, the VIX goes up. We can see the inverse correlation quite easily as the VIX had a major bearish wave, from Sept. to Nov., just as the DJI and SPX moved up. Now the VIX bottomed late November and this week closed above MA200 and EMA300. The first green week in multiple months. Ok, let's predict the future. The VIX will move first to 27.90, easily. It can go higher and hit 30 and also higher... 33. Midterm (1-3 months). Long-term (3-6 months or longer) ... Above 43 and even 58. Ok! Let's just wait, nobody can predict the future... And these are just codes... You are looking at squares and lines on a screen... Really? We will see! Thank you for reading. Namaste.
TVC:VIXLong
by MasterAnanda
2
o' man o' man.if i'm right about this, so many people are going to so devastated. most market participants are already completely and utterly distraught, this rally could just simply set them over the edge. --- i'm theorizing a full blown rally in the months ahead, right into april \ may. --- russel200 expanded flat target sits right a the 1.75 algo, which is roughly at $2392 --- please don't treat this as financial advice. consult your financial advisor before making any decisions in this market.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Long
by notoriousbids
a leap of faith?due to tv's guidelines, i can't express myself the way i'd like to, so i'm going to keep this post as vanilla as possible. --- nasdaq looks to be setting up for an even larger rally than i initially imagined. figured i'd gift you guys this projection right before market closes today, just in case you were feeling on the edge about it. --- my conservative upside target on the nasdaq sits at the 1.75 expanded flat target ($15,385) likely to be hit into April. --- the next two days could be very rocky, so be super careful. >also keep in mind that i could absolutely be wrong about this, so don't treat this idea as a means to go all in or something else that's totally rash. >be mindful of the bearish potential here, understand that we're deep in a recession, and that this is a very contrarian outlook of a very complex situation misunderstood by the majority. --- happy holidays ♥
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by notoriousbids
Where to Now? 9th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I'm back from my holiday and fully recharged. Since my last technical update, the equity market has made some interesting moves that we need to examine. ➤ Foremost in my mind is of a potential medium term top that has been reached.🔝 I'm using S&P500/SPY as the market proxy. If we look at the market since March 2022, there has been two previous occasions where this scenario has occurred: 29th March and 16th Aug. The VIX fell below 20 and then rebounded higher. S&P500 proceeded to then decline by around -20%. 📉 ➤ This scenario has just played out with the peak on 1st Dec. VIX has bounced higher after falling below 20. IF history repeats/rhymes, we are looking for another 20% drop. 🙀 That would take us down to 330/3300 for the SPY/SPX500. Each drop occurred over a two month period. That would mean both an ugly end to this year and start of the next. ➤ For this to occur, the market will have to counter both the Christmas rally and a historically bullish January. Readers would point out Jan this year as the perfect counter example. ➤ I currently hold a -25% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: History does rhyme...but is it the Bullish or Bearish rhyme?
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
This level on VIX can make the S&P500 finally break bullishThis is the S&P500 on the top chart compared to the Volatility Index (VIX) at the bottom. As you see, VIX rebounded on the 19.20 Support level that was formed by the August 12 Low and that made the S&P500 get rejected on its Lower Highs trend-line that is holding since the start of 2022. If that upward trend on VIX continues, S&P500 should trend towards its previous Low and if VIX tests its October High, then most likely it will be translated into a Lower Low for the S&P500. However, a break below VIX's Low, into the Green Zone, should make the S&P500 finally crosses above this 1 year Resistance. Further, a VIX break below the 16.35 Low (formed by the January 04 Low), should technically confirm the long-term bullish break-out. This can be as early as the start of 2023 if VIX's Channel Down is extended. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
7
Volatility Rally | Major Demand ZoneThe Volatility Index (VIX) has been in a historical downtrend the past weeks / 2 months! VIX has also been moving abnormal in relation to the S&P 500 Index which it tracks Volatility in. The Volatility Index has sunk to a major demand zone, and is now breaking back out of the area. After hitting Lows of around $19 the VIX is breaking out upwards. We are seeing a dump in the markets from major S&P Bear Market Trendline as well. Bears are stepping in at these levels in the markets, and the volatility index is rising, signaling further downward movement coming in the market. Simply put, the Volatility index is breaking out from its Major Demand Zone, and generally if history repeats will rally up to the supply zone up around the $30 level. This has been a typical swing move in the index since the beginning of 2022. Reasons VIX looks bullish : - TTM Squeeze (Daily & Weekly) - Reclaimed Daily EMA Cloud - Market Rejecting Major Trendline (S&P) - Cup & Handle on VIX (1hr / 1D) - Double Bottom - Market Greed - CPI & FOMC coming up How to play : $UVIX commons $VIX option calls etc. There are multiple reasons Volatility is rising currently, and Technicals back this thesis up strongly. I hope you liked the though!
TVC:VIXLong
by ZachSap
Tomorrow the Dollar will continue it's descent!Now that we've retested the neckline of our H&S which intersects perfectly with the 200 day moving average, the dollar will have found permission from the bulls, who will give up here, to continue it's descent. Follow the VIX in correlation with this downward trend and we will begin to observe still more bullish activity in the stock market. Should the moves be significant, we can only hope that crypto will follow slightly, or at least hold from sustaining more losses. Best, Stew
TVC:DXYShort
by stewdamus
$VXX looks like it's about to explode higherSo far the selloff has been pretty orderly the entire year and trying to play volatility hasn't worked. I think that's about to change. $VXX has been consolidating in these two channels and looks like it's about to explode higher. If we can see $VXX get above $21 or so, I think we're about to see a huge move in $VXX. Similar to what we saw in March 2020. I've marked off key levels of resistance on the upside. Let's see if it plays out over the coming weeks.
CBOE:VXXLong
by benjihyam
3
let's talk about the bull case.g'morning. we've talked about the bear case for awhile, let's talk about the bull case. --- over the last few months, there has been absolute armageddon in the markets bulls have been slaughtered, bears have been slaughtered - while the wolves consistently continue to feast on the finest of all the delights. --- what i'm suggesting here, is not bullish in the slightest bit, in fact, this is as bearish as it gets when you zoom out and look at the larger picture, but just for the next few months, i predict a major move up which will get 95% of the market 100% bullish. --- i will continue to hold my bearish stance on the larger picture, and i'll happily update you guys if something changes. --- nq1! wave b target = 14~15k.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by notoriousbids
How VIX follows SPXVIX is a measure of volatility. It takes the last 30 days of SPX, and measures it's variance. I would guess that VVIX does the exact same thing to VIX, it takes the recent 30 days of VIX, and measures it's variance. These two, along with SKEW are some of the methods investors calculate risk. I don't have the technical/financial knowledge on the ways investors can use risk management for better financial decisions. If we do some "magic" we can transform these notoriously unchartable indices. I am aware that since VIX takes the value of SPX, gets affected by both the volatility and the price of SPX. So technically from it's nature VIX tracks SPX. If, for example, we plot the chart (1-VIX) we will see the following: As we already know, he inverse of VIX follows SPX. Low volatility equals high SPX. The calculation logic of the chart is: Scale down VVIX such that it is in a similar scale to VIX. Then subtract one from the other. SPX is scaled down, after we divide it by M2SL. I would guess that from 2009 to 2019, the growth was sustained because VIX was consistently low. I also noticed that VVIX this year is incredibly low. One would expect that with such this year's recession that VVIX would also pick up the pace. During periods of very high volatility like the Great Recession, VVIX tracks VIX. Not this year however... As a fellow trader pointed out quite some time ago: Now VIX is higher and it's behavior with VVIX is very similar to 2008. We could say that the current situation is much similar to 2000 or with 1970s with stagflation and not 2008. Some things however, they smell foul. The elephant in the room maybe... SKEW is in an all-time low. This could encourage investors to over-expose. THAT is when crashes happen. Overexposing when liquidity is being dried up from the FED, is a recipe for disaster. Even if we grow from here and everyone wins, who will have the money to pay back all these winnings? Especially now, with everyone investing like crazy, over-leveraging and such. And if EVERYONE is buying, who is selling? "Buying the dip" is part of the equation... I believe that the bottom is NOT in yet. And since charting indirect stuff like VIX, like housing, yields, energy, all point to the same direction, I cannot ignore them. PS. The elephant is the collapsed worldwide-production-chain. The elephant is that we are one step away from war or famine. And maybe, just maybe, the elephant is long gone... we just don't know it yet. And we are talking about how the DOW will not fall. We are convinced that we are in the bottom and we are buying the dip. We are dreaming of more money quicker. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori I am not a trader, I am a father of a cat named Alyx. Don't take what I say as trading advice.
V
by akikostas