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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

🤨 When in Doubt...Find Support, 18th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I'm sounding like a Psychologist today. Professional Traders do make use of Psychologists or Coaches to analyse and evaluate their performance as well as for counselling and self-reflection. We amateurs often just mumble to ourselves. ➤ S&P500 gapped lower at open before rebounding to finish near the daily highs. The strong support level at 390 held well. It was a mixed bag for other indices. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were particularly weak. Although it is a mixed picture, there is less doubt in my mind. I would like to get Bullish here. ➤ I currently have +34% long exposure in the market. Additional exposure is possible if prices move as I expect.The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: More action please!
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
S&P500 / VIX - Black Swan Incoming? 🔮Taking a look at the SP500 Daily with our US Equity Gaps indicator, next to the VIX Weekly. Looking back to the start of 2022, we can see a series of "controlled" selling, on our grind from the 4700s, down to 3500-3600.📉 Compare that to the VIX, we can see the stock market has yet to experience a true black swan. See the 2020 mega spike in the VIX. Whether it's due to geopolitical tensions, financial data, etc., we'll see. But you can almost feel that the market is teetering on a knife's edge. Or at least that's how we feel! 😬 Throw these against the Equity Gaps indicator, and it shows we have plenty to fill to the downside.🤯 Who knows. Maybe we're just being cynical. However, we feel there's a 10-30% downside vs a smaller 1-5% upside. If that's the case, we're happy to be sitting on our hands for the time being. -TucciNomics Chief Overlord, AlgoBuddy
TVC:VIXShort
by QuantVue
🤨 When in Doubt...17th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ ...sit out. In my humble opinion, the current short-term price action in equities are highly ambiguous. This often happens at key inflexion points when prices temporarily move sideways. Sometimes this is the market digesting recent moves e.g. the upward surge or the market is in search of direction awaiting some news or catalyst. ➤ With ambiguity comes the danger of forcing a trade or reading too much into a particular price action. For example, the Russell 2000 small cap stocks performed terribly today, breaking below support. Technically, I could make a case for shorting the Russell yet if I look at other equity indices, they ended above or very near support levels on this bearish day. The VIX (fear index) actually contracted showing lack of bearishness. Based on my experience, it is much better to wait another day for things to develop than eagerly risk capital in search of gains. ➤ I currently have zero exposure in the market. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Thursday is Action Day?
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
VIX overlay on on SP 500 reveales Micheal burry prediction. I overlaid the VIX on top of SPX. Lets take a look at history and some realistic poinst to bounce from mania phase. The SP500 is performing better than the nasdaq. We are about to have a death cross of the weekly 50 over the the 200 ema/sma, on weekly candle on both indexes. I did a over lay on the nasdaq as well and posted. VIX hasn't even spike. Technical analysis says all hell is about to break lose. Professional analysis on cnbc and such, are permabulls. I checked my TA against Michea Burry prediction. And came up the the same figures. Good luck. Don't hedge into crypto. DXY control sp500 (spx, spy), and btc is just another sector of spx, so don't hedge into crypto. If the market goes down, so will crypto.
SP:SPXShort
by Crypto-Crapshoots
That Was Not Good, 16th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I didn't change the title from yesterday's post for an obvious reason. The news about the "errant" missile landing in Poland. The first thing that comes to mind is "uncertainty". Uncertainty is not good for markets albeit this one may be short-lived. ➤ That being said, from a technical view point, markets bounced off the daily low strongly closing the gap created by the higher open. The uptrend is intact for now. Speaking of gaps, there is a large gap unclosed since 13th Sept just above current levels in the S&P500 (SPY). There is also the massive gap created on 10th Nov when prices leapt higher post inflation data. The market likes to close those price gaps. ➤ The last of my long positions was closed. Leaving us in a familiar territory of having no positions. That's not a bad thing given the uncertainty. The key to my Strategy is to only get involved when there is a clear price structure with a good probability of success. I don't think I'll be out of the action for long though. Price action on Wednesday will most likely determine new positioning. ➤ I currently have zero exposure in the market. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Wednesday is Action Day.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
That Was Not Good, 15th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ It was looking good for my Bullish position until the final hour of trading. Then things went sour. Prices reversed course. That Was Not Good. ➤ It was not good for two reasons: ➀ My fear of being taken out by choppy conditions has materialised. Exit signals were given. That meant I had to cut most of my positions at market close. Overall a set of break-even trades. Not disastrous but very disappointed with giving back profits. ➁ Price action leaves the market in "limbo", at least in my view. It was not a sufficiently strong reversal to give a short signal. That means price can maintain its Bullish stance but without my participation. A case of Fear of Missing Out (FOMO). ➤ At the end of the day, it was good to stay disciplined and not second-guess my process. Wavering on decisions and letting emotions get in the way will lead to inconsistent behaviour and erosion of confidence. Eventually, that will lead to disastrous results. ➤ I hold a +8% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Looking forward to the next set of trades that are just around the corner.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
SPX Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022 SPX Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022 Currently the implied volatility for this asset is around 3.12%, down from 3.33% of last week. From volatility percentile, point of view, we are currently on 65th from ATR and 51th from VIX index. With this volatility percentile values into account we can expected on average that the weekly candle is going to be: 2.86% for bullish 2.73% for bearish With the current IV, we can expect with a 75.7% probability that the market is not going to close either above or below the next channel: TOP: 4116 BOT: 3851 Lastly, based on previous calculations, we have: 79% to hit the previous weekly high of 4014 26% to hit the previous weekly low of 3738
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux