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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

The Big Turn?Good morning!!! Wow....just wow. What a day yesterday. Caught me way off guard, that's for sure. The CPI report really just lit the markets on fire bringing it back to that upward channel from the October 13th low. A few days ago I was already mentally preparing myself that this market could go touch 4000 or even 4100. I just wasn't expecting to get there so soon. I did say that I would CAUTIOUSLY buy into this market and follow it up to 4000ish. But with the gap up yesterday and strong momentum, I decided to just watch the action and wait for another entry. So in the near term, looks like it's leaning more bullish. We now have about 64% of stocks above their 50 day, we broke above resistance (3900) and it may have the strength to get to 4100. But then what? Is this the big turn we've all been waiting for? I don't know. Seems that way after what happened yesterday. But I'm still not convinced. You know, I've noticed that over the years, Goldman Sachs is pretty good at calling where we will end the year on the S&P. Earlier this year, they had originally forecasted that we would end the year at 4300. But then... around June or July? Somewhere around that time. They changed their outlook to 3600. Why? What are they seeing coming in 2023 that we don't? I don't know, I feel something bigger is to come in the coming weeks. Plan for today: Since we gapped up yesterday, I didn't buy into it and I really don't want to chase this rally until I get a couple more confirmations. Even though we are above the 50 day and broke out of the downward channel, I'll need a few days to see if I should enter any short positions or get bullish. If we end today with a Harami candle and Monday we have an up day... gotta get bullish. But if Monday we have a down day, then that could show signs that we could head lower. I still wanna see that VIX get to 40 or 50. Either way, be patient, stay disciplined and trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPX
by MMOTA_
Bull Charge, 11th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ What an extraordinary day! The Bulls have run riot. The Bears have been crushed like myself. ➤ Price has charged through the top resistance level and looks unlikely to stop there with so much momentum. There's really not much more to be said. You can see the empty space till the next resistance level on the chart. ➤ The saviour for my portfolio has been the small short positioning. This is of course somewhat offset by such a huge advance in price. Overall, correct positioning kept losses to a manageable level of around -2%. That takes my performance into negative territory for the month. I was also caught wrong-footed in September in a similar fashion. Losing is part of Trading and so is risk management. ➤ At market close, I reversed my short positions with a larger long position. The portfolio sits at +64% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Wrong direction but right-sizing - risk management. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
VIX - The recent high to be taken out soonThe volatility index, VIX, has spiked again, with the market marking new lows for the year. With these grim developments, we continue to be bullish on the index and expect it to reach our short-term price target of 35 USD soon. As if it was not enough, we expect VIX to continue higher over time. Therefore, we want to set a medium-term price target for VIX at 37 USD. Our preceding articles are attached to this idea. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
24
VIX could explode anytimeCan you remember the Corona Crash? VIX spiked up to a reading of 80. and VIXL made a stunning 3500% profit!!! I think a similar event is about to happen over the next 6 month's. (most likely just around the corner) Right now we are in a Bear Market, and we haven't seen capitulation yet, which is quite normal in such a market. When this happens the VIX should spike up to 45-80 which would equqal with enourmous profits in VIXL (probably 5-30x) Right now VIXL is around a reading of 1. I just wanted to remind everyone of this oppertunity. Of course, long term you lose money with VIXL, but when you expect a VIX above 40 it can get very profitable short term. Just an idea from me, no investing advice. Cheers✌
MIL:VIXLLong
by DominikS
I Am NOT UNCERTAIN, 10th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I'm borrowing that quote from the TV Series Billions. The market is NOT UNCERTAIN that things are UNCERTAIN. There's one thing markets don't like and that is uncertainty. ➤ The results of the mid-term elections in the US are UNCERTAIN. I'm no political expert but if Republicans win the House and Democrats win the Senate or with some sort of coalition, the division will cause friction with pushing through policy decisions. Furthermore, things may be undecided till December if there are run-offs due to the close voting...the UNCERTAINTY will only be removed through time. ➤ Incoming Inflation data is also adding to the UNCERTAINTY. Luckily, this will be out of the way by Thursday. Market participants will make a decision quickly. ➤ In the previous note, I said that the ball is in the Bear's court. Today, they pushed prices lower to form a lower high. This dents the chances for a continued uptrend in the immediate future. ➤ I've strengthened my bearish view by moving to a -34% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: By no means am I a high conviction Bear. We are only at the 1st innings. That I am NOT UNCERTAIN.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Bitcoin, Weekly, My long-term viewI present my long-term view on the crypto market in the coming time. Currently, my focus is on the current bear market—how it is going, how it will run, and where it can end. In my opinion, when analyzing the cryptocurrency market, we should be focused on the stock market as a leading market. Actually, I consider the 2008 analogy to the S&P 500 index and the VIX synthetic index. I made an idea for VIX for that (link below), and I will do the second one for SPX. I took this analogy into account when adjusting the path of the potential BTC's price behavior. A bit drastic view, but it is known that cryptocurrencies have not survived the recession yet.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by MichaelFX_ICT
2
What do USD/MXN and S&P 500 VIX have in common?The Mexican peso (MXN) is one of the conventional high-beta currencies traded on the forex market, making it extremely susceptible to changes in risk sentiment on global financial markets. When MXN inflows occur, it usually signals that investors are willing to take risks. In the last three months, USD/MXN has lost 3%, making the peso one of the best-performing currency in 2022. Much of the MXN's outperformance has been the result of a very hawkish Mexican Central Bank, which hiked interest rates up to 9.25%, the highest since 2005. Another 75bps hike is expected at November 10th meeting, which would bring Mexican rates to 10%. Aside from the Banxico hiking cycle in Mexico, the Peso has a strong correlation with global risk factors, namely the stock market volatility. To put it another way, historically, the USD/MXN pair and the S&P volatility index ( VIX ) have behaved similarly. What are we seeing now? The USD/MXN 14-day RSI indicator has entered oversold territory, highlighting the need for caution for investors willing to take on more risk at this stage, as MXN valuations are beginning to appear rather stretched. Therefore, the bearish momentum for both USD/MXN and the VIX might have reached a peak. Aside from the results of the midterm elections, investors will almost definitely have to digest another strong US CPI data this week. Analysts predict 8% annual inflation in October, with core inflation at 6.5%. If actual results match or exceed estimates, Fed interest rate expectations will likely be reassessed higher. As the U.S. and Mexican economies are highly interdependent, the anticipated cyclical weakening of the U.S. economy bodes poorly for the Mexican economy and adds to MXN downward pressures. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity market specialist at Capital.com
by Capitalcom
First Signs, 9th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ DJIA, the blue chip equity index, continues to outpace all other US indices. It is quite remarkable. Never have I seen such outperformance. It is TELLING US something... ➤ I think the first signs of a longer bearish period is being shown by the price action. The recent move forming the higher low is looking laboured. It doesn't have the big "strides" of a strong march especially if you compare this to the up movement from the yearly low. There, the up bars are large and look confident. ➤ We can't get too far ahead of ourselves though and dive into short positions just because things look bearish. I need confirmation. We will get this very soon by today or tomorrow with inflation data. ➤ The Bullish view is that prices need a bit of time to digest the large move off the yearly low. Hence a pause before exploding higher. ➤ I've taken profit on the remainder long positions leaving the one small short in the Russell 2000. The portfolio sits at -8% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Looking for Bearish confirmation
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
2
SPX can be in a much bigger H&S patternIf this H&S plays out/triggers we will see the price in 3k zone For now there is a support box for the move lower. Expect unexpected, as the price was tested so many times on the downside, it can break next time it does test it. Also if this is a start of the wave 3 down, it will be fast and with min retracements, so be careful when trying catching the knife Sar dots on daily are printing from the top 3rd day in a raw, 4h just joined the party VIX and UVXY got very green already Im swing short and my timing for the low is 21-22nd of Nov Should move down into 10-11th low, then up into the 15-16th and final push to 21-22nd low
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
"The" Daily Market Update (Centralized)As I am permitted, this core idea will have a daily video update every day besides Saturday. These updates will ALL be videos in my usual format and each will be 'IDEAS' themselves: As opposed to a screenshot with words. This is key, because any Intra-Day update that I make in regards to that idea (same day update) will have the update within that idea. So clicking on that daily update may have more updates past the initial one. The purpose of this is to further consolidate and reduce clutter that may build up over time and by doing so I hope that you can get an understanding of my thought process by quickly being able to refer to previous days, as well as having any comments/questions answered in one centralized location. I believe I started (specifically) doing the regular daily updates from September 7th, so it only goes back that far as of now. I have done some here and there, but want to keep this idea as clean as possible for everyone. Related Ideas linked below are some of my more important ideas that I often refer to. I stream every weekday: 15 minutes before the market opens and at least 15 minutes after the market closes. I also stream Sundays 30 minutes before the Week candle Change on BTC. Some other key information regarding TradingView Subscriptions: 1) I do not believe it is needed (for me) to be able to analyze and trade anymore, BUT it is key for going over old data to train and is HIGHLY worth considering when you want to take your trading to the next level. I may not continue with the Premium next year, but I will NEVER not have a TradingView Subscription; Just as I will never eat unhealthy food again. There are certain things you do not go back to. Being subscription-less is one of them. 2) If you feel comfortable analyzing and want to try new things, I HIGHLY recommend taking a look at the subscriptions levels and features, because on which you choose you can get access to many amazing features such as: a) Volume Profiles (Horizontal Volume) b) 20,000 bars worth of data c) Intra-Day Replay (Very useful for accurate back-testing and training) d) Multiple charts at once (Easier for me to compare movement to find correlations) e) The ability to make video ideas. In the spirit of being fair, I must mention one small drawback in regards to one feature of the premium plan. This is only in regards to anyone that streams regularly on TradingView and 9.9 times out of 10 will not apply to the average user. I explain an incredibly easy work around at the bottom, so make sure to check that out. The "Premium Plan" allows your streams to be "saved indefinitely". This is the response I got and why I believe the streams are saved, but not available after you stream 50 more times (overwritten or hidden). Though until they are made available, if ever, they might as well not exist. "I have double-checked this case with our tech team and they assigned a task to add the possibility to view the records of the past streams in the Profile. Your ticket is tagged to the corresponding task so you will be notified in case of an update." So it appears from the language used that the streams are saved, but are unavailable after 50 streams. I stream every day, so this is important to me. Maybe it will be important to you as well. Work Around: You can save your own recording to your pc when you stream and/or also multi-stream through Trading View to YouTube and Twitch. YouTube will turn your streams into Videos so that solves the issue of that; More or less. TradingView is my platform of choice, so I'd prefer all of the streams to be accessible on this platform and, through that, encourage more people to access this platform for data.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by TrendLINEBoys
7
Fence Sitting, 8th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ S&P500 was able to climb above the resistance/support level at the end of the days trade. This has set a higher low above the yearly low on 13th Oct. We now have the first set of higher highs and higher lows => an uptrend in the classical technical definition. 📈 ➤ While the Bulls may be rejoicing on such an occasion, we must note that within the larger context, the price is still stuck in the choppy range bound condition. A move above 390 in the SPY would break those shackles. ➤ Looking across at other markets, NASDAQ still looks very weak. The Russell 2000 still have not triggered an exit for my short position despite recent bullishness. DAX hit resistance and was unable to stay above it for now. STOXX50 did overcome resistance. VIX is dangling in the reversal zone. ➤ With the above set of conditions, I'm still leaning Bullishly but have cut NASDAQ and DAX longs. The portfolio sits at +32% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: CPI data on Wednesday could have a huge influence on the near term Bullish progression. I'm inclined to go sit on the fence.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
2