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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

That Was Not Good, 15th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ It was looking good for my Bullish position until the final hour of trading. Then things went sour. Prices reversed course. That Was Not Good. ➤ It was not good for two reasons: ➀ My fear of being taken out by choppy conditions has materialised. Exit signals were given. That meant I had to cut most of my positions at market close. Overall a set of break-even trades. Not disastrous but very disappointed with giving back profits. ➁ Price action leaves the market in "limbo", at least in my view. It was not a sufficiently strong reversal to give a short signal. That means price can maintain its Bullish stance but without my participation. A case of Fear of Missing Out (FOMO). ➤ At the end of the day, it was good to stay disciplined and not second-guess my process. Wavering on decisions and letting emotions get in the way will lead to inconsistent behaviour and erosion of confidence. Eventually, that will lead to disastrous results. ➤ I hold a +8% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Looking forward to the next set of trades that are just around the corner.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
SPX Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022 SPX Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022 Currently the implied volatility for this asset is around 3.12%, down from 3.33% of last week. From volatility percentile, point of view, we are currently on 65th from ATR and 51th from VIX index. With this volatility percentile values into account we can expected on average that the weekly candle is going to be: 2.86% for bullish 2.73% for bearish With the current IV, we can expect with a 75.7% probability that the market is not going to close either above or below the next channel: TOP: 4116 BOT: 3851 Lastly, based on previous calculations, we have: 79% to hit the previous weekly high of 4014 26% to hit the previous weekly low of 3738
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
Bull Charge Continues, 14th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Good Monday, we experienced some extraordinary market action last week. Beginning with the BTC/Crypto plunge and ended the week with a massive bullish move in equities. Not to be outdone was the sharp reversal in the USD. The USD reversal is a big deal. ➤ Equities extended the rally off the yearly lows accelerating past key resistance levels. Price is in "clear" air territory. VIX continues to contract, it may continue to do so heading for the 20 level. At that level momentum to the upside ceased on numerous previous occasions. ➤ I was caught out by the "false" Bear positioning mid-week. I'm hoping to recoup those losses quickly with a continued rally. Will the Trading Gods play another trick? ➤ Interesting to note that the NASDAQ has led the way in the latest up move whereas it was lagging badly from the bullish move off the yearly lows. Perhaps there is some sector rotation here. Reducing exposure to bluechip names (DJIA) and increasing exposure to Tech where market participants are severely underweight. ➤ I continue to hold a +64% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: The price is always right.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
The Big Turn?Good morning!!! Wow....just wow. What a day yesterday. Caught me way off guard, that's for sure. The CPI report really just lit the markets on fire bringing it back to that upward channel from the October 13th low. A few days ago I was already mentally preparing myself that this market could go touch 4000 or even 4100. I just wasn't expecting to get there so soon. I did say that I would CAUTIOUSLY buy into this market and follow it up to 4000ish. But with the gap up yesterday and strong momentum, I decided to just watch the action and wait for another entry. So in the near term, looks like it's leaning more bullish. We now have about 64% of stocks above their 50 day, we broke above resistance (3900) and it may have the strength to get to 4100. But then what? Is this the big turn we've all been waiting for? I don't know. Seems that way after what happened yesterday. But I'm still not convinced. You know, I've noticed that over the years, Goldman Sachs is pretty good at calling where we will end the year on the S&P. Earlier this year, they had originally forecasted that we would end the year at 4300. But then... around June or July? Somewhere around that time. They changed their outlook to 3600. Why? What are they seeing coming in 2023 that we don't? I don't know, I feel something bigger is to come in the coming weeks. Plan for today: Since we gapped up yesterday, I didn't buy into it and I really don't want to chase this rally until I get a couple more confirmations. Even though we are above the 50 day and broke out of the downward channel, I'll need a few days to see if I should enter any short positions or get bullish. If we end today with a Harami candle and Monday we have an up day... gotta get bullish. But if Monday we have a down day, then that could show signs that we could head lower. I still wanna see that VIX get to 40 or 50. Either way, be patient, stay disciplined and trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPX
by MMOTA_
Bull Charge, 11th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ What an extraordinary day! The Bulls have run riot. The Bears have been crushed like myself. ➤ Price has charged through the top resistance level and looks unlikely to stop there with so much momentum. There's really not much more to be said. You can see the empty space till the next resistance level on the chart. ➤ The saviour for my portfolio has been the small short positioning. This is of course somewhat offset by such a huge advance in price. Overall, correct positioning kept losses to a manageable level of around -2%. That takes my performance into negative territory for the month. I was also caught wrong-footed in September in a similar fashion. Losing is part of Trading and so is risk management. ➤ At market close, I reversed my short positions with a larger long position. The portfolio sits at +64% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Wrong direction but right-sizing - risk management. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
VIX - The recent high to be taken out soonThe volatility index, VIX, has spiked again, with the market marking new lows for the year. With these grim developments, we continue to be bullish on the index and expect it to reach our short-term price target of 35 USD soon. As if it was not enough, we expect VIX to continue higher over time. Therefore, we want to set a medium-term price target for VIX at 37 USD. Our preceding articles are attached to this idea. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
24
VIX could explode anytimeCan you remember the Corona Crash? VIX spiked up to a reading of 80. and VIXL made a stunning 3500% profit!!! I think a similar event is about to happen over the next 6 month's. (most likely just around the corner) Right now we are in a Bear Market, and we haven't seen capitulation yet, which is quite normal in such a market. When this happens the VIX should spike up to 45-80 which would equqal with enourmous profits in VIXL (probably 5-30x) Right now VIXL is around a reading of 1. I just wanted to remind everyone of this oppertunity. Of course, long term you lose money with VIXL, but when you expect a VIX above 40 it can get very profitable short term. Just an idea from me, no investing advice. Cheers✌
MIL:VIXLLong
by DominikS
I Am NOT UNCERTAIN, 10th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I'm borrowing that quote from the TV Series Billions. The market is NOT UNCERTAIN that things are UNCERTAIN. There's one thing markets don't like and that is uncertainty. ➤ The results of the mid-term elections in the US are UNCERTAIN. I'm no political expert but if Republicans win the House and Democrats win the Senate or with some sort of coalition, the division will cause friction with pushing through policy decisions. Furthermore, things may be undecided till December if there are run-offs due to the close voting...the UNCERTAINTY will only be removed through time. ➤ Incoming Inflation data is also adding to the UNCERTAINTY. Luckily, this will be out of the way by Thursday. Market participants will make a decision quickly. ➤ In the previous note, I said that the ball is in the Bear's court. Today, they pushed prices lower to form a lower high. This dents the chances for a continued uptrend in the immediate future. ➤ I've strengthened my bearish view by moving to a -34% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: By no means am I a high conviction Bear. We are only at the 1st innings. That I am NOT UNCERTAIN.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro