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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

Higher Low? 7th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Welcome to another week of snakes and ladders. Before we look at the technicals, I urge you to read my thought piece about The Paradigm Shift if you haven't done so. IMHO, this will alter the behaviour of markets going forward. A much more active approach rather than a passive buy and hold approach is required. ➤ Let's now look at the charts. Once more the price in the S&P500 is back in the chop with resistance and support levels acting has hurdles. For the Bullish case, we could possibly pencil in the higher low I have been writing about. Price retraced 50% of the up move from the yearly low. This is a common place where prices tend to rebound higher. Price needs to overcome 379 in the short-term to make certain of this. ➤ The biggest conundrum right now is the weakness in tech or NASDAQ. This is very rare during a bullish phase. In fact, with a cursory glance all the way back to year 2000, I cannot see such a huge discrepancy between the performance of NASDAQ as compared to the DJIA, a portfolio of blue chip stocks. In every instance, the NASDAQ has matched or bettered on a Bullish move whether in year 2000 or 2008. I'm interested to investigate this further as to the cause. Is it high inflation and fast rising interest rates the culprit? I welcome your insights! ➤ VIX has entered an interesting area where Bears have come to the fore. Despite that, I cut my small short in NASDAQ and reversed to buy. A small short position in Russell 2000 remains. I'm long other indices. Portfolio sits at +60% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Chop means fingers closely placed near the exit button.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Key to this Market: Bond Yields & USDSo we gapped down yesterday if you didn't notice. I guess the market didn't like what Powell had to say. But overall, yesterday had a even amount of buyers and sellers. What we're waiting for is the Octobers payroll number that's due to come out an hour before market open. Now, expected is 205k. If this number comes in higher than 205k, the market really isn't going to like that and we'll head lower. If it comes in lower, then.... that could give the market a reason to rally higher. But does it make sense to go higher today after yesterday and Wednesday's action? I think the markets are most likely heading lower. The key to this market is Bond yields and the US Dollar. If they go up, market is going to sell off. They come down, market rallies. It's what's been driving this market. I'm more concerned about the Nasdaq. Yesterday, big cap tech was just getting a beating. And if the selling continues with these big dogs, we will go lower. The markets are going to want to test those lows again and fast. This is where I'd want to see 40,50,60 on the VIX if the selling accelerates. Futures are currently trading at 3758 at the time of writing. So as of now, it looks like we're gaping up. However, the payroll numbers come out an hour before and if the markets don't like the number, we could turn around in futures right before open and head lower. We'll see what happens. Plan for the Day: There's a small chance of a rally that could happen today. If we do, I'll just sit on my hands and watch the market. I'm still holding some shorts with plenty of time. I just need to know if I should add to my shorts. If we gap lower, then I'll add to my short positions and follow my levels down. Keep in mind that markets usually don't bottom on Fridays. Be patient, stay disciplined and trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPXShort
by MMOTA_
VVIX vs VIX - What can we tell from itBelieve it or not - The Stocks volatility index (VIX) has it's own Volatility index (VVIX) - and if we compare the two, it looks like VVIX has touched onceagain bottom trendline - how did that reflect on VIX? VIX bottoming was always delayed for 9 to 100+ days after VVIX bottomed. What to expect ? That in an average range of 40+ days VIX should bottom and start going up - And according to my overall analysis - we are just before a big fall - therefore this is the last moments for stocks. In other words - Bullish until EOY.
VLong
by TheSecretsOfTrading
Now the Real Battle Begins, 4th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Price has reached the next level of support after sharp falls. Now we will see the real battle between the Bulls and the Bears. ➤ The Bullish case is quite simple. Price needs to be supported here to form a higher low. The classic definition of a bull trend is the formation of a set of higher highs and higher lows. ➤ The Bears have it much easier. It can push prices down to a new low straight away or allow the price to set a higher low but break that new uptrend soon after. Arguably, the ball is in the Bear's court. Their job seems to be a lot easier with the backdrop of fragile world economies. ➤ My trading signals show the possibility of a short-term bullish move. This may set that higher low. Portfolio sits at +51% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: We may experience choppy conditions here so a full commitment long or short may not be ideal.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Downtrend Channel after the FEDCould it be that markets have been impatient? I think so. After watching yesterday's price action, I think the market gets the message now. Or do they? I need to see capitulation before I see a rally. But we're getting close. I've been thinking that the VIX needs to get to 40 or 50, and THAT would be my capitulation. So if that happened...what...we would get to 3000? 2900? I mean, it could happen in the coming weeks. Or maybe we just follow the downward trend line slowly for the rest of the year and no Santa Clause Rally? Remember the scene in the movie "The Perfect Storm" with George Clooney, where the sun starts poking in through the clouds of the hurricane, giving the fisherman a sign of hope? And then the dark storm clouds covered the sun, destroying the hopes briefly had. That's what happened yesterday. Plan for the day: I'll watch the market throughout the day to determine if I should continue to add to my short positions. The market may need a couple more days to digest yesterday. I really don't think anyone is going to want to hold anything over the weekend so if the selling continues today and tomorrow, that would not be good for the week to come. If we continue to go higher, 3970ish, 4010ish will be the area for me to watch closely. Either way, stay disciplined, be patient, trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPXShort
by MMOTA_
VIX - what what what ?!What Do I see here ?! The Double Top Neck didn't get retested (red circle) Ladies and gentlemen.... this means only one thing - if a retest hasn't appeared yet, it is more than likely to reverse the other way in the near future - and that is no surprise to me. So far VIX has been following my lines - and I expect nothing else for the next months. We are now at support, ofcourse consolidation may happen but overall this should be the local bottom and we should start going up - and from here - in theory - sky is the limit. Anything can happen any time. And sadly it won't happen when expected so just keep monitoring. Yesterday's FOMC was really bearish and gave no hope for bulls. Now stocks and risk-on assets have a pretty open highway to the downside.
TVC:VIXLong
by TheSecretsOfTrading
...And Down She Goes, 3rd November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ If you ever doubted the effectiveness/importance of support and resistance levels/zones, I think that has been put to bed by today's price action in the S&P500 equity index. ➤ All you need is to look at the price action in the past few days. Price has tried valiantly on multiple occasions to overcome the resistance zone. Today saw the ultimate failure. ➤ However, failures like these are not always full gone conclusions. In my analysis of such situations in the past, many times prices have held on to re-ignite the bull charge. The probability of this happening is certainly well below 50% but we shouldn't dismiss it. ➤ At European equity market close I was able to add short positions to hedge my initial long exposure. This did help to offset the majority of the loss. At close of US trading, I exited the long positions and entered small short positions. Portfolio is net short with -34% exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Bears are back in charge but it's not too late for the Bulls to strike back.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
1
Poised to...2nd November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Yesterday in Australia was the running of the 162nd world-renowned horse race, the "Race That Stops the Nation" - The Melbourne Cup. The blue-ribbon event is a 3200m long-distance race and each horse is handicapped by age, weight and "quality". In theory, due to the handicap, each horse has a fair chance of winning. This year's winner is Gold Trip with odds around 15 to 1 or $1 bet wins $15. The favourite for the race was odds of around 5 to 1. ➤ Just like the Melbourne Cup, it's time for the US Federal Reserve Cup. Whilst the FOMC members are no thoroughbreds, they do seem have staying power with market participants who hang on their every stride. Today, onlookers are poised for the "Rates that Stops the World". Market behaviour is showing nervousness. S&P500 failing at resistance again in the pink zone for three days in-a-row. DAX and STOXX50 in Europe also stopping short of key resistance levels. ➤ I've betted on horses for the fun of it, but when it's serious money like my trading capital, I'm not keen to get too involved. It seems my Strategy agrees given it is not giving any trading signals other than "sit-tight" for now. ➤ My exposure sitting tight at 20% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Place your bets, big winners and losers expected today.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Pause...1st November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Welcome to November. Just two months to go prior to the end of a long but so far successful year. However, there will be a lot of action and many trading opportunities still to come. ➤ Except maybe not for a day or two. As if on queue we have a pause on proceedings. This is to be expected both from a fundamental and technical viewpoint. We are awaiting the important US Interest Rate decision on Wednesday and S&P500 is up against strong resistance (pink zone). ➤ If you are familiar with my trading style, you will know I don't like these 50/50 situations. Prices can break above or falter at the resistance. It's a perfect set-up by the Trading Gods to take your money. They either can hunt down your well-placed stop-loss or trap you against your directional bet. This is especially true when important economic data is released. ➤ My exposure is low right now so I'm quiet relaxed. I did have a go at buying NASDAQ yesterday, but cut the position as price failed to hold well. My overall 20% long exposure remains. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Unless something dramatic happens on Tuesday, my positioning will remain the same. I'll be waiting for the fireworks display on Wednesday to show the path forward.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
VIX - Will the FED spark another rally in the volatility index?On 18th October 2022, we warned investors that our short-term price target of 35 USD would be pushed further into the future if the market rallied until the FED meeting. Now, we are growing increasingly bullish on the index and expect it to return above 30 USD and then continue toward our short-term and medium-term price targets. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
18
VIX Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022 VIX Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022 Currently the volatility for this week is around 12.11% , up from expected 8.8% last week. According to ATR calculation, currently the volatility is located around 10th percentile. Under this circumstances the expected movement of the candle is : BEAR : 9.4% from the opening point of the weekly candle BULL : 11.6% from the opening point of the weekly candle At the same time, currently there is 22.8% that the movement within this weekly candle is going to break and close either above or below the next channel: TOP: 29.3 BOT: 24.5 Lastly, taking into account the previous weekly high and low there is a : 35% chance that we are going to touch the previous week high 60% chance that we are going to touch the previous week low
TVC:VIX
by exlux
VIX vs BTCOkay can someone explain this to me ? I guess not, Because I know that this can't be explained - and worst is - mathematicians have proofs of life being a "thing" made out of fractals - literally everywhere and between everything. Well, back to markets - here We can See the Daily chart BTC fractal on the 1h timeframe of BTC - and also on the 1h timeframe of VIX - vis has played out nicely ( have posted about this fractal last week) Now let's see if it leads us to low 19k on BTC.
TVC:VIXShort
by TheSecretsOfTrading
2
Time for a Pause? 31st October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ S&P500 leapt higher to the upper resistance zone highlighted in pink. This is probably the best opportunity for price to take a pause or reverse downwards. A clear break above the zone will give the Bulls impetus to push higher as there is little to no resistance left until the top of the double-bottom formation as explored in a previous post. ➤ VIX is approaching the pink zone as well where reversals have occurred. This will add weight to the Bearish argument. We will know soon enough with key economic data/policy decisions this week including US employment, manufacturing and interest rates. ➤ I closed my ill-timed NASDAQ short exposure and also cut my long exposures in half. Leaving an overall low 20% long exposure. This will change quickly if prices reverse course. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Inflexion point incoming?
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro