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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

SO NOW WHERE DO WE GO?Yesterday I said I would sit on my hands if we closed above the 20 day moving average because that would make me a little more bullish. And, well, we did. So now what? This has been a great traders market with all the volatility we've had for a few months now. All we can do as traders, is trade the market in front of us. We are still in a Bear Market and below the 50 day. Interesting things can happen here. And who knows, we might trade in this area for a few more weeks until it decides a direction it preferer's. That could get boring, but I doubt that happens. If it wants to, we can continue to trade between 3800 and 3600 with some big swings. Need to remember that next week, big tech will announce their earnings. I think next week we'll have bigger moves in the market. So what could happen today? Futures are currently trading 3705. And last night we peaked at 3765ish. Or maybe even a little higher. We could possibly gap down and lets say open at around 3690ish 3680ish, then push our way back up to 3760ish. Vix is back up to 31. Gotta keep watching this. If we close today higher than yesterdays high, we're probably going visit the 50 day. Another outcome could be that we open at 3690, push to 3760ish and close back at 3700. If that happens than the market needs more time to decide. Lets see what happens today. Manage risk, be patient, react and trade the market in front of you.
SP:SPX
by MMOTA_
2022 Crash - My plan to trade the volatility I don't really post these for anyone else but for my own intuition to see how it turns out. But I'll have a go at explaining for anyone who finds it worth reading. I've been waiting for this moment for a long time - and at times, been impatient. But it is now becoming clear where we are in this 'volatility cycle', in comparison to the volatility cycle of the 2008 financial crisis. I'm sure many of us are aware of the risk of serious economic crisis literally around the corner. Not to say I/we know when, or how serious -but rather that I'm pretty cock sure there is elevated risk of serious economic crisis. I won't go too deep into the macros because, well, you should know. And the conclusion I come to with what I think I know is that the fed may have created a multi asset bubble. How? Go google what % of dollars currently in circulation were printed in 2019-20. To conclude, kicking the covid recession can down the road gave us the final over extended bull run of. Bringing the end to a 12 year bull market. This goes for economic cycle too - monetary policy has been largely loose for this entire period (correct me if I'm wrong, I haven't actually checked the data on this.). But I do know it has been loose for a long time and the fed has stood ready to rescue markets and the economy where required to keep things tidy - ie. markets and economies growing. But as we all know, economies go in cycles, too. And after every boom comes a necessary evil - the recession. After every recession comes a boom again. We need a recession - but the further the can is kicked down the road, the higher the risk that it goes deep. Long story short and probably way to brief, the fed and government's over stimulation of the economy plus the supply issues born from pandemic and war have caused dollar devaluation and inflation. I don't care what anyone says - the SPX should not have gained 120% from the Covid lows. This is just silliness because of overstimulation (Michael Burry would agree). Why? How? Go google what % of dollars currently in circulation were printed in 2019-20. I'm surely not the only who sees things this way, right? All of this, plus some amateur looking TA comparison to 2008, and staring at these charts for far too many hours, days, weeks, months, - I think capitulation is around the corner. Terrible news for most, I know. I don't wish for this to happen - I'm just following the fed. And would rather profit from the consequences of policy mistakes (kicking the can down the road) finally being rectified (Quantitative tightening, increasing interest rates = restrictive monetary policy = no more money printer until inflation and demand and prices calm tf down). So, how do I plan to profit from this? Well, volatility takes off to it's high's of $90 when we see capitulation. But, if history rhymes, we will see one last rally in the SPX - and the last sustained drop in volatility before a capitulation event. I am short VIX currently, but stand ready to build long VIX at tops of SPX rallies, eventually neutralising my position towards support, and phasing out shorts and tightening up stops on shorts. I expect this to happen over the next 1-2 months. Let me be clear - the short position is no biggy here - it's just because clearly we may see a relief rally soon, before capitulation. So I expect volatility to drop BEFORE taking off. So I'm short, phasing into long. Then I'll see you all when VIX is at $80-90 - then I will phase out of longs into MAXIMUM short positions on VIX. Let me be clear - I'd short VIX at $80-$90 with everything I have. And I plan to. Seriously. I encourage you to think about it and debate your reasons why that is a bad idea. And with the proceeds from going long VIX through the volatility spike and then shorting VIX at $80-90, once volatility drops to c$35-25, I will start phasing into QQQ - 3 x leveraged Nasdaq 100. Anyway, the anticipated capitulation event could be triggered by any external factor - war escalating, fed increasing rates more than expected, something completely unforeseen etc etc, it's not important - what's important is that the economy has been running hot, inflation is high, asset prices are in bubble territory, and as a result the whole system is vulnerable - we just need something to happen for it to be an excuse for the dominoes to fall as they should at the peak of an economic cycle, and should have happened two years ago. Then, once the dust settles in a couple years (possibly longer depending how bad) we can all grow sustainably (hopefully in more ways than one) again in the next boom cycle. Thank you for reading. This is not financial advice
PEPPERSTONE:VIXLong
by Doge_Dean
🟰 Support & Resistance, 19th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Today's price action is showing the importance of support and resistance levels. At market close, you can see the price just holding a key level after another eventful day. Price gapped higher at open, it then dropped to fill the that gap and then recovered. After hours trading is showing further upside pressure post Netflix earnings results. ➤ The continued Bullish case would be for prices to overcome the next level of resistance at the 379/380 area on the SPY. This would set a higher high. ➤ The Bearish case would be the inability for it to hold that resistance level and/or close below the 371 level where price closed. ➤ I remain long with +20% exposure. ➤ Conclusion: Choppy conditions with supports and resistance levels in play. Directional/Trending trades will be difficult unless price clears these areas. Mean-reversion trades work best here.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
VIX overlay on on SP 500 reveales Micheal burry prediction. I overlaid the VIX on top of SPX. Lets take a look at history and some realistic poinst to bounce from mania phase. The SP500 is performing better than the nasdaq. We are about to have a death cross of the weekly 50 over the the 200 ema/sma, on weekly candle on both indexes. I did a over lay on the nasdaq as well and posted. VIX hasn't even spike. Technical analysis says all hell is about to break lose. Professional analysis on cnbc and such, are permabulls. I checked my TA against Michea Burry prediction. And came up the the same figures. Good luck. Don't hedge into crypto. DXY control sp500 (spx, spy), and btc is just another sector of spx, so don't hedge into crypto. If the market goes down, so will crypto.
SP:SPXShort
by Crypto-Crapshoots
Chop Chop, 18th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Prices did at U-turn (again) and reversed all of Friday's losses with Financials/Banks leading the way. We are back in a ranging market with this yo-yo type action. Prices may attempt to move higher to the top of the larger range if VIX continues to contract. ➤ I took profits on my European long positions as exit signals were given by my Strategy. I added a small long position in S&P500. ➤ I'm long with +20% exposure. I may add more US exposure if prices weaken. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I don't know when the chop will stop. It can be a tricky environment to trade especially with such large daily moves.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Cup and Handle Complete? About and week and a half ago, I published an idea saying that we could be forming a cup and handle pattern. Jobs report came out October 7th and we gapped down. To be honest, I was still expecting a little more upside to about 3850 or just base at 3800 for a couple more days to complete the cup and handle pattern I was looking for. So that gap down wasn't ideal for the cup and handle pattern. CPI report came out Oct 13th and it got ugly at the open finishing off the day with the most impressive day not seen in about 40 years. Many think, that was the end of the Bear market. And look, yes that was a Bullish reversal candle, but it didn't sell me enough because it brought us right back to the very weak 3600 area. Friday, October 14th, was going to tell if that rally we had on Thursday was real. We gapped up and gave back almost half from Thursday gains. We have to remind ourselves that in bear markets, you're going to get aggressive rally's. I'm still expecting the VIX to get to 40 and possibly even get to 50. That would be the pivot point for me, then, I would expect a multi day rally and get bullish. When will this happen? Not sure. But I anticipate by the end of the month we arrive to 3400. Maybe even 3200, days before the mid terms. The selling could continue for a couple more weeks I think. Only time will tell. Remember, don't predict, react. Mange risk and be patient for the right entries.
SP:SPXShort
by MMOTA_
Upside Bias, 17th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Despite the retracement lower on Friday following the Thursday price surge, I am still looking for further upside. This holds true as long as the we don't have a daily close below the lows. As mentioned previously, I am expecting a re-test of the low, this may be that test or it is still to come in the near future. My medium-term outlook (for a few weeks) is also biased upwards. ➤ Clearly we are in a risk-off environment where performance of DJIA > S&P500 > NASDAQ. Therefore, I'm not expecting any long lasting bounce until there is evidence that NASDAQ is taking the lead. Riskier stocks should lead any substantial long-term rebound. ➤ I'm long with +40% exposure all in European indices. I would like to add US exposure but keeping risk low at this juncture is the right call IMO. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Earnings should play a greater role this week and next as all the big names will be releasing results and providing future outlook.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
2
USDJPN correction expected?I don’t really trade Forex, unless something catches my attention. USDJPN has been climbing for a while now. On weekly chart it is overbought and even the strongest move need to take a brake once in a while, Either if you look on EMAs or Fibonacci levels, correction can reach area 139-141.2. It doesn’t mean it will but according to my analisys, most of the indices look like they they’re going for an upside move. With VIX being overbought as well. The markets might get a bit more positive until November US rates decision. Personally I think we might not get lower than 140. Im not a professional trader and this is not a trading advice. Trading is risky. Always do your own analisys.
Short
by Trinnisia_Trades
4
Long Volatility into AugustBy now you all know the drill. Let's start with an initial framework, assess the current environment, and evaluate all below questions. are we trending or ranging? - a series of higher highs, higher lows - sellers structure is broken, we are tracking whether buyers will protect or find it difficult to hold discount? - we are tracking the lows for the previous wave block - Support 20, Pivot 25, Resistance 38 managing trade? - Trading and assess based on quarters, 00, 25, 50, 75 - Market participation in form of current strength/weakness, when market is weak we are sellers and when strong we are buyers This position, technically speaking, is very similar to the swing we traded in 2020. Buyers have developed a structure of higher highs, and higher lows, and desire their chance to go over to a direct attack on the highs. In this case the result is not certain; but since attacking in this fashion is characteristic of a volatility event. There are two lines, assuming the 20 support holds. In the first case, as well we need to track 25, the combinatory breakout of 25 will allow buyers to continue their summer dance with a romantic hue, unlocking 38 for August.
TVC:VIXLong
by ridethepig
5
Roller-Coaster, 14th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ That was some ride. Pre-CPI markets pumped higher by 1.5% before plummeting post data to -4% for the Nasdaq. Only then to climb back up and finish strongly by over 2%. Similar price action happened on 24th Feb 2022 as the war started in Ukraine. TBH, I expected this movement but certainly not the extent of the volatility. ➤ I initially took off my long DAX position pre-CPI during the pump. DAX was significantly outperforming other indices on the day so I took some profits. That meant I had minimal exposure to the CPI data as I was only net long with 10% exposure. As prices plummeted, there was very minor movement in my portfolio as my long STOXX50 position held up better than my NASDAQ shorts. ➤ By the end of the European trading day, I bought back the DAX position and cut the NASDAQ shorts. Leaving me with +40% long exposure. After US market close, I decided against adding US long positions at this stage given the size of the upward move. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: We may get some continuation of the rally but there should be an attempt of the re-test of the low at some stage.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro