VIX overlay on on SP 500 reveales Micheal burry prediction. I overlaid the VIX on top of SPX. Lets take a look at history and some realistic poinst to bounce from mania phase. The SP500 is performing better than the nasdaq. We are about to have a death cross of the weekly 50 over the the 200 ema/sma, on weekly candle on both indexes. I did a over lay on the nasdaq as well and posted. VIX hasn't even spike. Technical analysis says all hell is about to break lose. Professional analysis on cnbc and such, are permabulls. I checked my TA against Michea Burry prediction. And came up the the same figures. Good luck. Don't hedge into crypto. DXY control sp500 (spx, spy), and btc is just another sector of spx, so don't hedge into crypto. If the market goes down, so will crypto.
VIX CBOE Volatility Index
Chop Chop, 18th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Prices did at U-turn (again) and reversed all of Friday's losses with Financials/Banks leading the way. We are back in a ranging market with this yo-yo type action. Prices may attempt to move higher to the top of the larger range if VIX continues to contract.
➤ I took profits on my European long positions as exit signals were given by my Strategy. I added a small long position in S&P500.
➤ I'm long with +20% exposure. I may add more US exposure if prices weaken. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: I don't know when the chop will stop. It can be a tricky environment to trade especially with such large daily moves.
Cup and Handle Complete? About and week and a half ago, I published an idea saying that we could be forming a cup and handle pattern. Jobs report came out October 7th and we gapped down. To be honest, I was still expecting a little more upside to about 3850 or just base at 3800 for a couple more days to complete the cup and handle pattern I was looking for. So that gap down wasn't ideal for the cup and handle pattern. CPI report came out Oct 13th and it got ugly at the open finishing off the day with the most impressive day not seen in about 40 years. Many think, that was the end of the Bear market. And look, yes that was a Bullish reversal candle, but it didn't sell me enough because it brought us right back to the very weak 3600 area. Friday, October 14th, was going to tell if that rally we had on Thursday was real. We gapped up and gave back almost half from Thursday gains. We have to remind ourselves that in bear markets, you're going to get aggressive rally's. I'm still expecting the VIX to get to 40 and possibly even get to 50. That would be the pivot point for me, then, I would expect a multi day rally and get bullish. When will this happen? Not sure. But I anticipate by the end of the month we arrive to 3400. Maybe even 3200, days before the mid terms. The selling could continue for a couple more weeks I think. Only time will tell. Remember, don't predict, react. Mange risk and be patient for the right entries.
Upside Bias, 17th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Despite the retracement lower on Friday following the Thursday price surge, I am still looking for further upside. This holds true as long as the we don't have a daily close below the lows. As mentioned previously, I am expecting a re-test of the low, this may be that test or it is still to come in the near future. My medium-term outlook (for a few weeks) is also biased upwards.
➤ Clearly we are in a risk-off environment where performance of DJIA > S&P500 > NASDAQ. Therefore, I'm not expecting any long lasting bounce until there is evidence that NASDAQ is taking the lead. Riskier stocks should lead any substantial long-term rebound.
➤ I'm long with +40% exposure all in European indices. I would like to add US exposure but keeping risk low at this juncture is the right call IMO. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Earnings should play a greater role this week and next as all the big names will be releasing results and providing future outlook.
BTCUSDT Final Support Stages - LONGUpdate to BTC/USDT next Weeks forecast
From our analysis it appears that although there is a chance of price retracting to 18,500 mark.
In overall judgement the chance is so small ,considering the last weeks' green hammer candle close and this weeks close above last weeks open.
With almost 100% certainty market is going to take another sharp Bull run on Monday towards 21,500 mark and current support shall remain entrenched @ 18,900 mark.
USDJPN correction expected?I don’t really trade Forex, unless something catches my attention.
USDJPN has been climbing for a while now. On weekly chart it is overbought and even the strongest move need to take a brake once in a while,
Either if you look on EMAs or Fibonacci levels, correction can reach area 139-141.2.
It doesn’t mean it will but according to my analisys, most of the indices look like they they’re going for an upside move. With VIX being overbought as well.
The markets might get a bit more positive until November US rates decision.
Personally I think we might not get lower than 140.
Im not a professional trader and this is not a trading advice. Trading is risky. Always do your own analisys.
Junk Bonds as Indicator of Overall Market RiskThe decline in junk bonds is generally an indication of high market risk. In this type of enviornment, investors of junk bonds demand higher yields to compensate for additional risks.
As bond yields and prices are inversely correlated, higher yields cause junk bond prices to fall; a repeating pattern over the last two decades.
When markets face a significant crisis, junk bonds fell along with other risk assets.
VIX Volatility only beginningVIX is showing higher lows and has broken above the Brim Level of a Cup and Handle.
This is problematic for a trader as it means a lot more jumpiness is coming.
It's also broken out of its downtrend on both chart and the RSI.
With the inflation rate going up, interest rates soon to go up in November and with more money going to be printed in the economy - this isn't good for the markets in the medium term.
Time to risk less per trade, I'd imagine.
Long Volatility into AugustBy now you all know the drill. Let's start with an initial framework, assess the current environment, and evaluate all below questions.
are we trending or ranging?
- a series of higher highs, higher lows
- sellers structure is broken, we are tracking whether buyers will protect or find it difficult to hold
discount?
- we are tracking the lows for the previous wave block
- Support 20, Pivot 25, Resistance 38
managing trade?
- Trading and assess based on quarters, 00, 25, 50, 75
- Market participation in form of current strength/weakness, when market is weak we are sellers and when strong we are buyers
This position, technically speaking, is very similar to the swing we traded in 2020. Buyers have developed a structure of higher highs, and higher lows, and desire their chance to go over to a direct attack on the highs.
In this case the result is not certain; but since attacking in this fashion is characteristic of a volatility event. There are two lines, assuming the 20 support holds. In the first case, as well we need to track 25, the combinatory breakout of 25 will allow buyers to continue their summer dance with a romantic hue, unlocking 38 for August.