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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

💤 No Hibernation...11th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ...for the Bears as equity prices continue to fall in an orderly manner. The NASDAQ closing on a fresh new low, S&P500 not far behind. That being said, we did see prices reverse aggressively when the S&P500 made a new daily closing low on 30th Sep, so there's that possibility once again. ➤ Across in Europe, the indices couldn't hold large gains after gapping down lower. I added a small short position in STOXX50 as prices may play catch-up and go back to test the yearly low. ➤ I increased my short exposure to -80%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Prices look to continue their march lower. The worrying sign is that it is very orderly and shows no capitulation. That's when a more permanent bottom is usually found.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
1
Edge of a Precipice Will we ever see VIX at 16 again? Here I explain the mean reverting nature of VIX. Then I predicted exactly were VIX and JHEQX would be on Friday, October 7th. Now we're sitting at the edge of a precipice of the worst financial disaster in history. So I wrote an indicator to give us retail traders an inside eye so maybe we could catch a long vol opportunity of a lifetime. If you understand how a large institution positions assets and how they hedge against a market correction you can a) find these hedges and b) use dealer positioning to predict it. That brings us back to VIX. Vix is calculated using SPX Weekly options rather than stocks. If Vix sustains higher levels for longer it is telling us liquidity is bad. As more institutional players position to the downside eventually there will be too much money on the same side of the boat and the boat will flip. Think of market participants as people on a boat and the waves are volatility. As the seas get more violent (swings up and down in market price) people on the boat are going to try to find a position best suited for the volatility. Ask yourself now, is buying puts a good way to hedge downside? No. Fixed strike implied volatility is a disaster. It has been collapsing for nearly the entire year. Institutions protecting assets (like British pension fund managers apparently) with puts are getting worse and worse returns hedging with puts. You may be able to pick off edge as an active trader by buying well timed Puts and cashing in on premium kick for a quick 100% return, but these fund managers holding puts are getting destroyed. Instead, institutions are piling into selling puts while shorting stocks. We all know what happens when too many shorts pile in, they frequently get squeezed. I was expecting short squeezes to take hold when Oil started climbing. Because the alternative is JHEQX leaning negative into an already crowded short side and a VIX > 32. And that is exactly what nearly happened on Friday. If futures drop overnight or price drops below 3580 JHEQX will start selling and the only thing stopping a drop to 3200 will be the FED with its left tail tucked between their legs with some fresh QE. As a great philosopher once said. "Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same. And now it's here"
TVC:VIX
by SPYvsGME
16
NIFTY Weekly Forecast 10-14 October 2022 NIFTY Weekly Forecast 10-14 October 2022 We can see that currently the volatility is around 2.61% for this week, falling from the 2.75% from the last week. Currently there is around 24.5% that the asset is going to close either above or below the channel: TOP 17540 BOT 16550 The current volatility percentile is around 50th, placing us in average risky environment. With this situations in general the market moves: AVG weekly bull candle = 2.03% AVG weekly bear candle = 1.61% At the same time, there is currently a 78% that we will touch the high of previous weekly candle of 17445 and there is a 22% that we will touch the low of the previous week of 16862 From the technical analysis point of view: The majority of moving averages ranging from 10 to 200, are currently around 66% agreement that the market is in a BULLISH trend ( the current price is above those moving averages)
NSE:NIFTY
by exlux
VIX - Stocks Sentiment in preparation... for the ultimate drop. So we have broken the top curve - that is bad as hell already in itself. Additionally we retested it and have been trapped since then between the top descending trendline and the curve. What I expect to happen next is for VIX to consolidate ( or break to the upside and retest the trendline ) until EOY. Check my US100 idea to see what stocks predict in the meantime. As a reminder - VIX has never shown such sentiment "moves" as we have nowadays - but just once in the past - And that one time has been replayed perfectly so far - that's one of the reasons why I expect VIX to consolidate or even show slight signs of minor-relief for stocks until Christmas season. Cheers!
TVC:VIX
by TheSecretsOfTrading
🕺 Dancing Around Support, 8th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities took a dive towards the lower support level. Note that this support level has already been violated by a daily close to set a yearly low on 30th Sep. This makes it less reliable as a line of defence. Still, price did bounce off that level prior to end Friday trade. ➤ The momentum is with the Bears but we should tread carefully around these levels. Price could just as easily reverse course if there is hesitation to push lower. ➤ The European indices did not give me an additional short signal (as yet). They have bounced harder off the bottom than US indices and have held those gains much better. ➤ I reduced my exposure to -60% to take some profit prior to the weekend. Politicians/Govt Officials tend to do their best work on the weekend. Prices can gap either way if something happens. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Prices are dancing around support. A small solo dance to celebrate my wins but I'm in no mood to Tango.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
👀 Look Out Below, 7th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ There was a lack of follow-through by the Bulls as prices retreated Thursday, giving up yesterday's gains. This may just be a pause in proceedings but with VIX moving into my panic zone once more, I'm inclined to take a bearish stance. ➤ If I'm right, I'm looking for prices to test the yearly low with a potential higher low or a more bearish break below as outlined by the chart. There should be a subsequent bounce but that is getting way ahead of myself. My crystal ball is extremely short-sighted. 🔮 ➤ If I'm wrong, I will take a loss and most likely reverse the position to take a bullish stance. ➤ I opened short positions across US equities SPX500, NSDQ100 and DJ30. I am watching European equities closely to add further short exposure. My current exposure is -120%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: US employment numbers out Friday maybe the deciding factor. 📈📉
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
1
30 Minute TimeframeHere is the new indicator on the 30 min timeframe. I wrote it to read daily SPX even in smaller timeframes so you can get more frequent updates on gamma and delta. Combine with Ichimoku Cloud and some TA and you got some predictable outcomes to build hedging, swing trades or even scalping short squeeze bottoms. Ascending Triangle is a perfect example of volatility compression. Higher at top of triangle = Volatility Rising lower trend line = Support Vix is playing its part. Below trendline = volatility compressing 🤷 Above trendline = volatility compressing 🤷 I think this sideways chop with squeezes higher or dumps overnight / AM continue until CPI on the 13th.
SP:SPX
by SPYvsGME
1
VIX - A strong warning to inexperienced investors! In September 2022, we warned investors about the volatility creeping back into the market and set price targets of 30 USD and 35 USD. Subsequently, in the following days after our warning, VIX skyrocketed, hit our price target of 30 USD, and halted its rise at 34.88 USD. Despite the index halting its climb merely 0.12 USD below our price target, we remain very bullish. Indeed, we still expect our short-term price target of 35 USD to be reached within days or weeks. However, we believe that VIX will not stop there but will continue higher, increasing the odds of a market crash. In our opinion, once VIX breaks above the range shown in the title picture, the market volatility conditions will start to resemble the market crash in 2020. That would align with what we outlined about the general stock market progressing into the second stage of the bear market, which will be confirmed by declining corporate earnings over time. As a result, we expect trading conditions to become substantially more challenging; therefore, we voice a word of caution to inexperienced and lay traders. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of VIX and two trendlines highlighting the uptrend. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of the Nasdaq continuous futures, which have declined more than 30%. Additionally, the graph shows other major U.S. indices, all in the bear market territory. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
24