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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

QQQ WHY THE 258/259 AREA IS SO IMPORTATNT .382 AND 50 % So what is next and why the support at 258/259 is why it is the point of focus in this CRASH . it is a pullback of 50 % from 2020 low to the peak . but more important it is a .382 within the super blowoff that ENDED AT 408.71 RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LONG TERM TARGET 406 TO 410 SEE DEC 2021 .So so many what to jump to the long side as we hit the target in time and targets in price the low was 254.9 just taking out the support but not in the sp almost to the tick it help 3490/3511 . I am and have been counting this as a super cycle top and will maintain that we had wave A from the peak at 408.71 down to the june low .And that we rallied in a perfect abc back up into the major spiral turn aug 16 to the 25 th for super cycle wave B we now have five waves down in wave 1 . I stated in in 8/16 this is the time we will see the market up here before we Crash in super cycle wave C low . wave 2 up has begun but if you think wave 2 up is going to be for a few weeks Think again . in every crash since 1902 the wave 2 of c is so quick you got TRAPPED with the rest the next decline is the CRASH and it will not bottom till 196 to 164 once it starts . So do you feel luck or Smart most of you I know will be feeling Lucky that why I make money and you seem to always which you did not make the mistake that you seem to not be able to stop . That is because I was a New york fireman before starting wavetimer . why does this matter it is the way my brain works I learned from two traders who were one a marine and one an ex navy seal . what do we all three have in common it is the being able to control our fear to stay alive and over come the natural fear of flight .I am no smarter than the next I just process it in a different way . best of trades Wavetimer !
NASDAQ:QQQ
by wavetimer
Pop or Drop? Only 5x in History has BTC done this!Traders, Bitcoin has recently become less volatile than the markets. The chart here represents Bitcoin's volatility over the Dow's. In the bottom pane you will see that as the red line rises, it indicates BTC is becoming more volatile than the Dow. As it falls? Less. Rarely, has it touched the zero point (horizontal red line in bottom pane). As you can see from my chart, we have only touched the zero point area only 4x in previous history. We are now on the 5th. After each touch (represented by the vertical line), huge moves have followed. The first was a 50% drop. Everything else thereafter was fairly significant pops. So far, the data shows a 75% probability of a pop. Will we make it 80% with this touch or is another big drop in store? Either way, a big move is incoming? What's your call? Post in the comments below. Stew
BITMEX:BVOLLong
by stewdamus
Wave 1 of C is ending 3511/3490 CRASH We have now entered the time frame for the panic low 10/4 to 20th focus on the 10 Th . We have also reached the target 3511/3490 It is my view that being short is not worth the trade . I can tell you I feel rather strong about the 3511/3490 area TO HOLD and lead to what will be the last rally within 2022 time frame . as I posted major turn 8/16/25 in spirals . I am doing the math tonight . I can also tell you my own p/c models on an rsi bases R looking for a rally to relief the model . MY VVIX is still not hit any PANIC levels I stand my we will see 47 in the reg VIX
SP:SPX
by wavetimer
2
Risk-Off, 13th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Minor down day in US indices. Pre-market was firmly positive until the PPI (Producer Price Index) numbers were released. It showed persistent inflation in the costs of production. These costs can be passed on to consumers and therefore feeds into CPI/Consumer inflation numbers. ➤ With CPI numbers coming out Thursday/today, we should expect a jump in volatility. I have no idea what the inflation number will be but there are bullish signs that I am willing to take some risk for a potential upside move. ➤ I further reduced my remaining short NASDAQ position to -10% and added long exposure of +40% with STOXX50 and German DAX. An overall small +30% long exposure. I think this is a sensible level of risk use given market conditions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I'm risk-on for a move higher but also risk-off by taking a lower exposure than previous days. Manage your risks.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Gamble at your own risk - Global Financial Crisis of 2022/2023Do not pray to the false gods of guaranteed bailouts. "The problem with all this is that it's their own policies that created the fragility, their own policies that created the dislocations and now we're relying on their policies to address the dislocations," Peter Boockvar of Bleakley Financial Group said. "It's all quite a messed-up world." -CNBC Not everyone survives. 10 Year Treasury real yields showing a clear sign that liquidity is collapsing, the fastest rise since 2008.
SP:SPXShort
by shri30389
UK Warning Sirens to Global Financial MarketsUK is a warning signal for everyone. This is what happens when central banks attempt to pivot in the current inflationary environment. The Global Lehman event accelerated after the September U.S. CPI, but was paused by BOE temporary intervention. Next U.S. CPI follows the end of BOE intervention. A Lehman crash now equals approx -60% in GDOW/SPX. The softer each step is down, and no sign of capitulation, the worst final low will be. Will the US be a safe-haven from a global financial crisis? If you believe central bankers can unring the bells, now is the time to go ALL-IN.
TVC:GB10YShort
by shri30389
Bounce Time? 12th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ US indices returns were wide spread. With DJIA finishing flat and Nasdaq continuing to fall. Large intra-day gains were unable to hold up. S&P500 hit a new low but the daily close held above the previous yearly low set on 30th Sept that can be considered as temporary support. VIX may also be peaking. There is a potential for a good sized bounce. CPI/Inflation data out Thursday should define where markets are headed in the very short-term. ➤ I locked in some profits by cutting positions in SPX500 and DJ30. My short exposure is -40%, composed of NASDAX and STOXX50. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Price action Wednesday/today prior to CPI data release is crucial for my next move. I'm leaning towards a bounce and may turn bullish.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
SPX500 is trying to find a bottomIn my opinion the market is trying to find a bottom. How far it will go down, Im not sure, but anything lower that 3450-ish, will take market to very oversold territory. Everyone is waiting for Thursday’s CPI, depending on the result this can go either way: 1. Inflation is rising - this means FED will be rise rates by 0.75 in November, strong move downside, but then it to go to oversold territory and we might stay there few days before slow recovery starts. I dont believe the earning season takes market above 4000. More realisticaly 3900-3950. 2. Inflation is going down- rising rates start to do the job, FED might slow down next month but we’re not out of the woods yet. Economies already slowed down, we might see recovery on the markets and USD to cool off a little. The only difference between 1 and 2 is when we start the recovery- this or next week. If you look at the VIX, it is pretty high, over 30. On a brick of being overbought. That makes me believe we can see some green candles in the next few weeks but after that I expect very red November. I can be wrong, the markets are unpredictable so dont treat it as trading advice. Im not a professional trader but I’ve been following indices closely in the last few months. Always do your own analisys
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Trinnisia_Trades
💤 No Hibernation...11th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ...for the Bears as equity prices continue to fall in an orderly manner. The NASDAQ closing on a fresh new low, S&P500 not far behind. That being said, we did see prices reverse aggressively when the S&P500 made a new daily closing low on 30th Sep, so there's that possibility once again. ➤ Across in Europe, the indices couldn't hold large gains after gapping down lower. I added a small short position in STOXX50 as prices may play catch-up and go back to test the yearly low. ➤ I increased my short exposure to -80%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Prices look to continue their march lower. The worrying sign is that it is very orderly and shows no capitulation. That's when a more permanent bottom is usually found.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
1
Edge of a Precipice Will we ever see VIX at 16 again? Here I explain the mean reverting nature of VIX. Then I predicted exactly were VIX and JHEQX would be on Friday, October 7th. Now we're sitting at the edge of a precipice of the worst financial disaster in history. So I wrote an indicator to give us retail traders an inside eye so maybe we could catch a long vol opportunity of a lifetime. If you understand how a large institution positions assets and how they hedge against a market correction you can a) find these hedges and b) use dealer positioning to predict it. That brings us back to VIX. Vix is calculated using SPX Weekly options rather than stocks. If Vix sustains higher levels for longer it is telling us liquidity is bad. As more institutional players position to the downside eventually there will be too much money on the same side of the boat and the boat will flip. Think of market participants as people on a boat and the waves are volatility. As the seas get more violent (swings up and down in market price) people on the boat are going to try to find a position best suited for the volatility. Ask yourself now, is buying puts a good way to hedge downside? No. Fixed strike implied volatility is a disaster. It has been collapsing for nearly the entire year. Institutions protecting assets (like British pension fund managers apparently) with puts are getting worse and worse returns hedging with puts. You may be able to pick off edge as an active trader by buying well timed Puts and cashing in on premium kick for a quick 100% return, but these fund managers holding puts are getting destroyed. Instead, institutions are piling into selling puts while shorting stocks. We all know what happens when too many shorts pile in, they frequently get squeezed. I was expecting short squeezes to take hold when Oil started climbing. Because the alternative is JHEQX leaning negative into an already crowded short side and a VIX > 32. And that is exactly what nearly happened on Friday. If futures drop overnight or price drops below 3580 JHEQX will start selling and the only thing stopping a drop to 3200 will be the FED with its left tail tucked between their legs with some fresh QE. As a great philosopher once said. "Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same. And now it's here"
TVC:VIX
by SPYvsGME
16
NIFTY Weekly Forecast 10-14 October 2022 NIFTY Weekly Forecast 10-14 October 2022 We can see that currently the volatility is around 2.61% for this week, falling from the 2.75% from the last week. Currently there is around 24.5% that the asset is going to close either above or below the channel: TOP 17540 BOT 16550 The current volatility percentile is around 50th, placing us in average risky environment. With this situations in general the market moves: AVG weekly bull candle = 2.03% AVG weekly bear candle = 1.61% At the same time, there is currently a 78% that we will touch the high of previous weekly candle of 17445 and there is a 22% that we will touch the low of the previous week of 16862 From the technical analysis point of view: The majority of moving averages ranging from 10 to 200, are currently around 66% agreement that the market is in a BULLISH trend ( the current price is above those moving averages)
NSE:NIFTY
by exlux