VIX CBOE Volatility Index
UVXY crosses over mean anchored VWAP LONGUVXY which leverages the VIX as a measure of volatility / greed/ fear has finally crossed
over the mean anchored VWAP. This is a sign of bullish momentum and perhaps a signal that
traders should hedge or consider their positions in terms of hard risk management. Those
who traded this move up today made 10% or better in the trade. Those who bought call options
expiring tomorrow made 10X and those with call options for next Friday made 5X overnight.
Tomorrow is another day. Likely the market will rise from the correction and UXVY will fade
a bit. No matter, its value for insurance and hedging is reinforced on days like the past day.
I am maintaining a full position aside the call options closed at the afternoon bell which
expire on Friday and had time decay to contend with. My first target is 7.75 then comes
8.05 and 8.45. I will take off 20% at each target and keep the others for insurance for
a true market crash or black swan event to buffer losses while stops get hit.
VIX, no potential to break out?the closer Weekly BB to resistance, the better odds for VIX break out. Whilst everything is possible, I don't think it has the power or potential to break out.
TLT feels like bottoming somewhere this summer? depends on the inflation metrics. But FED itself believes inflation is coming down.
Often these one-time events are bought by the smart money. Depends if the conflict (mid east) escalates to something more? Maybe there's a broad market risk, outside the quality.
Dollar, VIX, Gold & Silver are Spiking! What Could This IndicateTraders,
In this video I'll cover the spikes we are witnessing in the dollar, fear, and precious metals (specifically gold). We'll discuss what this might indicate to us from a geo-political/macro-economic perspective. Inflation continues to tick up. The SEC continues to attack big players (tokens/coins) in the crypto space without providing rules for how to play fairly. We'll track the current progress on stocks pulling back. Bitcoin dominance had done something it has never done before. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to track sideways while altcoins continue their deeper pullback. Plus, I'll analyze Ethereum Classic and at the end of the video I have some news from my followers.
P.S. - Minutes after producing the video, I read that Iran plans to attack Israel. The charts were telling us something. Is this it?
Watching for IWM to bounce off support
IWM is currently in a strong accumulation area based on the volume profile delta. The indexes were a bit oversold after yesterday's CPI report and FOMC minutes, leading to a bounce in the afternoon. I am skeptical as to whether today's PPI report and fed speakers will have the same effect so I closed my puts. Here is my reasoning:
VIX keeps rejecting above $16.25. If it does not move up sharply at market open, I expect it to reject again and move back down towards $13.00.
The 10y bonds chart looks like yields have topped out for the week after hitting the R3 fib pivot point. I see it retracing down the channel until next week.
Same situation with the Dollar.
I expect a small rally into the weekend or early next week. Timing will depend on the reaction to today's PPI report. I'd like to see a dip in the morning so I can minimize risk in case there is not enough momentum to get to $206. I expect some choppiness there so we can either continue moving up next week or head for new lows.
Also thinking this looks like another bullish wedge on NYSE..
The trend of higher peaks and troughs is brokenThe VIX’s structure with higher peaks and troughs became distorted after the FOMC meeting. Despite this being a positive development for the markets, it might be proper to stay attentive to the VIX for a couple more days to watch out for any potential rekindling of volatility.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. The yellow arrow indicates a breakout below the lower bound of the broadening structure.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
UVXY - VIX Futures ETF- rises from a falling wedge breakout LONGUVXY on the 30- minute chart is now in an establish falling wedge breakout. Increasing
volumes lend support for bullish momentum as does the fear that rate cuts may be postponed
the the market's bullrun may stall and correct. This chart is left clean with only trend lines
drawn in recognizing that quite a few traders only have a basic subscription on Tradingview
without the luxury of multiple indicators, alerts and so on. A rise in the VIX may be a signal to
start trimming long positions or hedging with short trades.
VIX - forecast 2024The market's recent rally (indices are up 25% since November!) feels frustrating. It doesn't seem to reflect the economic realities we're facing.
Inflation is cooling, but it's still above targets.
The labor market is strong, which might seem good, but it could be unsustainable with high interest rates.
We're seeing layoffs, which contradicts the market's optimism.
Maybe I'm missing something, but the disconnect between the market and the economy is concerning.
VIX has been rangebound since November 2023 and recently generated a positive MACD signal.
Looking ahead, the FOMC statement and Fed rate decision are later today. Historically, these events haven't triggered major market swings. A significant correction might require unexpected data, particularly a surprising labor market report.
Trade safe!
Legacy market volatility might boost crypto marketVIX is too low and USDT.D is at median value + almost flat for few months.
I expect huge volatility on legacy market. Rising VIX get this chart's value into around 4.
If USDT.D drops in the meantime this will be faster.
Anyhow, I expect crypto market will be more profitable or cause less damage to your wallet in the coming months.
This is just my idea and not trading advice.
VIX BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello,Friends!
VIX pair is trading in a local downtrend which know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is red. On the 9H timeframe the pair is going up. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 12.80 area.
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VIX is making higher highs and higher lowsWhile the market continues to rise and investors grow confident the rally won't stop, the VIX keeps subtly making higher highs and higher lows.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SPY Correction Coming?Hello everyone!
First two new charts for 2024. Another year another upside logic market. We're breaking ATH with continually decaying economic data, new banking troubles, new wars, and an election year and markets ignore it all. It's a Fed controlled market so mysterious!?
Anyhow, in this chart I did a vague not so accurate EW that began Jan 2022 that bottomed in Oct 2022 which basically bounced off the Feb 2020 highs which pushed us into this new bull market. We finally broke the ATH for the S&P today with 5015ish, which makes me believe we should soon see a corrective wave hit.
The first support will be early Jan support of 475. If this stays within this channel, we should see the correction over (C) at the same level as (2) of the bear market of 2022 which is March/April of 455ish giving us about a 10% correction.
Now, this is all IF markets go as planned and there are no external factors influencing selling such as a larger scale geopolitical war, banking failures and so on. This is based off a market that is going at the current pace.
That being said, I do see a major geopolitical event that will shake markets to their core but until then, we base our market moves on the Feds dovish nonsense.
Technicals:
- RSI, MACD are about peaked.
- VIX is at critical levels
VIX Risky Long From Rising Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
VIX fell down sharply
And is down by almost 20%
From the recent major high
So the index is clearly oversold
Therefore, we will be expecting
A local bullish correction
From the rising support below
Buy!
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VIX SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG
Hello,Friends!
The BB lower band is nearby so VIX is in the oversold territory. Thus, despite the downtrend on the 1W timeframe I think that we will see a bullish reaction from the support line below and a move up towards the target at around 14.49.
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$VXX 15 C 05/14/24***THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE***
Bullish Divergence on VXX and appears to be bottoming out, couple this with the BEARISH divergence on SPY daily chart (since December 13th-14th 2023) and FED's BTFP ending March 11th, Im willing to take the risk and see where this goes. Will post an update come mid march.
$VIX Possible Breakout? $VIX Tightest Base since 2018Weekly Chart from COVID Highs
Weekly Chart has yet to break out the trend line (green bar) from COVID Highs
The bottom appears to be getting tight and has consolidated sideways for weeks
June - September 2023 the chart was basing which rallied 10 points in the end of September
The base in June - Sept was not as tight as the chart is showing now
This is even with AMEX:SPY continuing to increase but VIX holding it's range (KEY)
Weekly chart showing a rounding bottom
Zoomed-In Weekly Chart
First we would like to see the weekly break the short term white trend line
To break to the upside into the green downtrend line from COVID Highs we would need VIX weekly to break through and close above $15.75
High chance if it breaks $15.75 we will hit the top line of the downtrend which the price will depend on when this break will happen
We could see highs of TVC:VIX to $17-$18 if breaks $15.75
VIX is getting ready to roll The VIX failed to close the opening gap it formed yesterday, which is slightly concerning news (especially if also considering an ongoing bloodbath in the Asian market and the potential spillover effect into Western equity markets). As a result, we are closely monitoring the resistance at $14.49; a breakout above it will bolster the bullish case for the VIX, while the gap's closing will suggest otherwise.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Sector Rotation Before CPI (SPY, QQQ)Clear sector rotation has been observed a day before CPI data release on Tuesday morning. It seems traders are getting out of Technology ( AMEX:XLK ) stocks and defensive sectors like Utilities ( AMEX:XLU ), Basic Materials ( AMEX:XLB ) as well as Industrials ( AMEX:XLI ) have been climbing up.
HIGHLIGHT:
The chart depicts S&P 500 ETF ( AMEX:SPY ) along with a ranking of all the major sectors at the bottom of the chart in an hourly setup. During the final hours of the last trading day (Monday) there has been a sharp sell-off of tech stocks as the industrials and basic materials have climbed up in strength.
A slow decline in Health Care ( AMEX:XLV ) and gradual rise in Financials ( AMEX:XLF ) over last few days have also been observed.
Please note that the first CPI of the year (January) usually creates volatility in the market. Which has also been observed in above 3% rise in the Volatility Index ( CBOE:VIX / AMEX:UVXY ) looking into the CPI release.
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✅VIX GROWTH AHEAD|LONG🚀
✅VIX has almost reached
A horizontal support level
Of 12.40$ and as VIX grows
Faster than it falls
Due to the peculiar nature of
The options on which
It's price is based we will
Be expecting a rapid
Rebound from the support
LONG🚀
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