$DJI now in short term downtrend, NDX, SPX & RUT already wereLooks like the TVC:DJI is in a short term downtrend.
NASDAQ:NDX SP:SPX & TVC:RUT all are in short term down trends which begin couple days or so ago.
TVC:VIX is at higher end of the recent pattern and it keeps poking it.
*(TOOK THIS FROM ANOTHER POST
Remember, the more something is poked the weaker it becomes
Picture paper holding a marble
Poke with a needle
Poke enough & that marble falls
Same works to the upside)*
The TVC:TNX or10 yr #yield looks to be setting up decently on the 4hr intraday.
#stocks
VIX CBOE Volatility Index
VIX is showing signs of awakeningAs the stock market is beginning to manifest weakness, we are paying close attention to the VIX, which is starting to exhibit signs of awakening.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
IWM: A $240 Target in 2024. Here's Why It's Doable.Flip on financial TV and you will likely hear a plethora of sellside strategists and buyside portfolio managers voice optimism about small-cap US stocks. Consider that the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) was easily in negative territory on the year back in October. Fast forward just two months and the small-cap ETF is up close to 20% total return in 2023. The quick switch has come about amid the group’s fastest move from a 52-week low to a 52-week high in its history. IWM is now poised to print its third-best two-month rally since its inception more than 20 years ago.
Is there more room to run? I think so. A breakout above the $200 mark, particularly on a weekly, monthly, and yes, even a yearly closing basis, is significant. Recall that IWM found support in the low $160s on a few occasions in the last year and a half after printing an all-time high above $240 in November 2021. Sellers flexed their muscles three separate times in 2022 and 2023 at the $200 mark. This $40 zone appears to be breaking in the bulls’ favor. That suggests a measured move upside target to $240 – close to the all-time high on IWM.
I see some near-term resistance in the $210 to $215 area – the range lows from 2021. Indeed, there is likely a significant amount of ‘dead bodies’ lingering above $210 that may look to supply the market with shares in order to sell at the breakeven mark. Still, the technicals appear positive despite some near-term overbought readings on IWM. Another cautionary signal is that the January through mid-March stretch has featured some volatility at times for the broad market, so the pace of the advance will likely slow. I remain constructive on small caps looking into 2024, though.
$BTC setting up for.......Let's examine CRYPTOCAP:BTC #BTC
1 - it is still trading higher on that trendline, good news.
2 - it has formed a Symmetrical Triangle formation.
We've shown these before, best example was TVC:VIX , it cratered since the break.
These can really pack a punch. Have to keep an eye in the direction that they break, they do tend to be CONTINUATION patterns!!!
IMO #bitcoin could be setting up for 2024
PART 2
CRYPTOCAP:BTC WEEKLY:
RSI looks okay
Not exactly like mid 2019 or late 2020 but there's SOME resemblance.
#BTC $ flow looks pretty good.
If it stays here, historically it has a pause and then pushes higher
Then we reach the higher level, thick yellow line, where #bitcoin tends to peak.
$DJI regains some ground, $RUT leading, $VIX strugglesAfter the outside day formed by TVC:DJI , it pumped a bit and regained most of what was lost in that 500pt loss.
1Hr chart sows it trading back above the moving avgs (intraday).
TVC:RUT is the only index that has traded ABOVE its recent highs.
TVC:VIX is struggling to close above a small resistance area, 14.
#stocks
$VIX making noise again, cautionNot liking what I am seeing here in reference to the $VIX.
Let's see how we close today but this roar sounds stronger than the previous one we had not long ago. That might have been the practice, test.
#stocks have performed well and are due for some sort of "rest", consolidation.
1Hr CBOE:SPX showing weakness with a bearish crossover.
4Hr seems okay, for now at least.
#VIX AMEX:SPY AMEX:SPXS AMEX:SPXL
VIX showing that tension is expected soon in the stock markets.The Volatility Index (VIX) is trading within a Channel Down pattern since the September 28 2022 High, which has also been the start of the 2023 recovery year for the stock markets (SPX illustrated by the thin black trend-line). Being negatively correlated in nature, when VIX declined within this Channel, the stocks rose and vice versa.
Since October 23 2023, VIX started to decline again and that sparked the stock rise which is holding up to this day, the end-of-the-year rally. However, we see a deceleration on VIX's decline, while its 1D MACD has formed a Bullish Cross since December 01. Being so close to the Channel Down bottom, a technical rebound is technically plausible and the pattern is recurring as it resembles a lot the previous Lower Lows.
If it does reverse upwards, the SPX can react a few days later as during the previous bottom process and reversal (June 22 - July 27) it lagged. In any case, this pattern shows that by January 2024, we should expect heightened volatility translated potentially into a (short-term at least) pull-back on the stock market.
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$VIX about to make a moveTVC:VIX is rearing its head again. Last time it sputtered when it roared.
Let's see what happens this time around.
See how the RED LINE keeps pressuring it lower? It has been trading under the average since late Oct. Well, the Yellow line will either GIVE or Push it Higher. It is going to happen sooner rather than later.
SP:SPX AMEX:SPY
RSP performing better than $SPX, good news for breadthThe AMEX:SPY is underperforming AMEX:RSP (equal weight SP:SPX ).
This means that underperformers could very well pick up the slack & outperform the Big 7 going forward. They have been performing well.
The Volatility Index TVC:VIX is down on the day BUT up from open.
Will the moving avg's push it lower or do we get some sort of support here? This is a MAJOR SUPPORT level!
TVC:VIX rarely gets close to oversold, let alone oversold.
AMEX:SPXS AMEX:SPXL #stocks
VIX near signaling a correctionLow volatility is good for the market, but extreme low volatility is not
As you can see, a lot of times where the TVC:VIX crossed 12 from below it signaled a correction within a bull market
And is not just the VIX, there are other breath indicators that are converging at levels that usually signal correction
I normally track the % of SPX stocks above their 50-day and 200-day MAs, NYSE New Highs/Lows and NYSE New 52-week Highs/Lows
My target would be 4.300 in the SP:SPX
SVXY short VIX model green arrow Sell red arrow BuyThe chart posted is that of SVXY the SHORT VIX as you can see we have been a rather clear channel at each of the red arrows we had high VIX and they also match up with high put buying each was a LOW .The Green arrows we had Low Vix at each we had high call buying each was TOP or high . But you see the double arrows both green and red they were at every high extremes were we saw move of over 400 to 700 sp 500 moves . . best of trades WAVETIMER
VIX Index at Lowest Levels Since 2017OVERVIEW
As of 12/12/2023, CBOE:VIX is at 11.82.
There have only been a handful of periods over the last 30 years where stock market volatility is at a similar level, including 2007 and 1994.
Some would argue it implies an increasing level of volatility will be due in 2024.
What is the VIX?
The CBOE Volatility Index, is a real-time market index representing the market's expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors often refer to the VIX as the "fear index" or "fear gauge" because it is one of the most recognized measures of market volatility.
Here's a breakdown of what the VIX represents:
Volatility Measurement:
The VIX measures the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated using the bid and ask prices of S&P 500 index options.
Forward-Looking: Unlike many market metrics that look at past performance, the VIX is forward-looking. It provides a 30-day forward projection of volatility.
Market Sentiment Indicator: A high VIX value indicates that traders expect significant changes (volatility) in stock prices, which is often associated with market uncertainty or fear. Conversely, a low VIX suggests low expected volatility and is often associated with market stability.
Not a Direct Stock Market Indicator : It's important to note that the VIX does not measure the direction of stock market movements. Instead, it measures how much the market is expected to fluctuate, regardless of the direction.
Use in Investment Strategies: Some investors use the VIX to help in making decisions about market timing. For example, a high VIX might suggest a market turning point, leading some to consider it a good time to buy, while others might see it as a signal to sell.
VIX Derivatives: There are various financial products, such as VIX futures and options, that allow investors to trade based on their views of future market volatility.
Risk Management Tool: For portfolio managers and sophisticated investors, the VIX can be a tool to hedge against market volatility or to take a position on future volatility.
In summary, the VIX is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. It has become a crucial tool in financial markets for hedging, trading, and investment strategy formulation
30%+ of $SPX = 10 companies, last time this high was 99Good Evening everyone.
While AMEX:RSP , equal weight AMEX:SPY , did well recently, the ten largest stocks are now making up more than 30% of the CBOE:SPX , wow!
However, it's been at a higher percentage than that before.
1999/2000 & in the early 90's, was around 40%
TVC:VIX hit a new low and it is likely hitting MAJOR SUPPORT, solid yellow line.
#stocks
UXVY Potential Short Term BounceUsing the previous bounce back in September 1st and had a month of bullish trading, I believe that in the near short term there may be another bounce. The RSI is beginning to show signs of upward strength. Despite this, there is strong bearish pressure as of now. Keeping an eye on this pair.
$SPX at IMPORTANT area! DJ:DJI is fighting to stay above, hang around resistance.
NASDAQ:NDX came back & fighting to chug higher as well.
VERY IMPORTANT AREA for $SPX!!!!!!!
Strength has subsided but it's not down yet.
Could AMEX:SPY retest the highs?
TVC:VIX is holding but doesn't look fully awake. Hmmm...
#stocks AMEX:DIA NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY
The VIX will be up 8% soon. 1. Higher Than Expected NFP Report: If the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is higher than expected, indicating strong job growth, it could lead to increased market optimism. Paradoxically, this positive news might also cause concern among investors. They might worry that a robust job market could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. Higher interest rates can make borrowing more expensive for companies, potentially affecting corporate profits and slowing down economic growth. This uncertainty can lead to higher market volatility, causing the VIX to increase.
2. Apple's Declining Sales: If Apple reports a 3% drop in sales after close, it could negatively impact investor confidence in the technology sector and the overall market. Apple is a significant component of major stock indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. A decline in Apple's sales could lead investors to reevaluate their portfolios and adopt a more cautious approach, contributing to market uncertainty and potentially increasing the VIX.
3. Current Daily Support Level and Fibonacci Retracement: Technical analysis suggests that the market is currently at a daily support level and below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in the weekly price range. Traders often pay attention to these levels as potential turning points in the market. If the market breaches these support levels, it could trigger selling pressure and increase market volatility, reflected in a higher VIX.
In summary, a combination of a strong NFP report, Apple's declining sales, and technical factors indicating a potential market reversal could lead to increased uncertainty and higher market volatility, causing the VIX to rise. Investors tend to react to unexpected news and technical levels, which can influence market sentiment and impact the VIX accordingly.
VIX Will Move Higher! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for VIX.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 12.66.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 16.01 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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$VIX under support but holding tight, for nowTVC:VIX is trading under the "13" support level.
The 12 area has not been touch & there's a struggle trading above 13 again.
Let's dissect shorter term, 1Hr (not here, see profile)
There's slight positive divergence being formed.
However, it is way to early to say #VIX will reverse here.
CBOE:SPX closed STRONG on Friday and the #SPX500 had the highest in 2023.
AMEX:SPY