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Vixforecast

VIX - Don't Be Afraid of FearVIX is the ticker symbol and the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. Is a high VIX good or bad? When the VIX reaches the resistance level, it is considered high and is a signal to purchase stocks—particularly those that reflect the S&P 500. Support bounces indicate market tops and warn of a potential downturn in the S&P 500.
TVC:VIX
by TRWORLD2021
Why $VIX is likely to drop next weekNOTE that the ticker here is $AAPL but we are actually discussing the $VIX. They are heavily related, as will be explained. I want to get this idea published quickly so I am likely going to cut some corners I would otherwise like to explain more of. I see the chart here doesn't include my drawings, so here's an attachment of it-- For those that understand Implied Volatility (IV) and how it moves in tandem with a stock's Earnings Report, you understand concepts like the run-up rise in IV to earnings and its subsequent CRUSH on the majority of earnings. Most earnings reports have all this pent up expectation for a wild swing in one direction or the other, but once earnings happen, the overwhelming majority of the time expectations for a big move dissipate and IV drops usually 20-50% in the following week(s). The $VIX is the Implied Volatility of the $SPX index. The largest corporations with the greatest weightings in the SP500 are reporting (or have already reported) earnings this week. $MSFT dropped on its earnings about 2.5%. It's IV30 is down about 18% REGARDLESS $TSLA dropped on its earnings about 6.0%. IV30 is down 16% REGARDLESS $GOOG gained on earnings about 4.5%. IV30 down 23% $V reported, up 2%, IV down 12% $BA reported, down 2.75%, IV down 11% The most likely scenario is after today the Implied Volatility on AAPL, FB, QCOM, and then tomorrow with other heavyweights AMZN, XOM, CVX, etc, are all going drop. If those IV's drop, the VIX is very likely going to drop as well. Could it rise? It did back in April 2019 and July 2019, but if we're looking at statistical likelihood, its not high. Speaking seasonality, May and July tend to be the two least volatile months, making May-July typically the least volatile stretch during the year. Once we have hurdled earnings season, hurdled today's FOMC, hurdle some of Biden's speeches, plenty are vaccinated already or scheduled to get one, we are going to run out of FUD- Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. This doesn't necessarily mean massive bull run, it could in reality mean a lot of boring doji days. In my opinion what I see next is another melt-up that might stoke the VIX in late May-early June. We'll see.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by chrism665
7
VILX - VIX ETF 2.25 Volatility - Fibonacci Summer CorrectionI'm thinking to make a nice play on my upcoming correction belief. Only option I have with my broker is VILX, so started looking into it's history. Only makes big money with big crashes / corrections, and I think we have two on the way. Data was so small for the main chart, but looking at the RSI here, some very interested volatility wave patterns. I'm always interested to see if there is fib correlations in dates and movements, and this one took some old school math to show. Very interesting! Soon be time to make a play on this, wish me luck ;)
LSE:VILXShort
by TheDarkEconomist
Fun With Fibonacci - VILX Fund - Amplified VIX I'm 100% certain a big correction is coming (possibly barring any stimulus that may scupper this, likelihood is it could even be the cause!) start of Q2 2021. I want to make a Vix play on this and this is my only option with my broker so been taking a dive. Straight away, arcs of intent everywhere, clear ebb and flow patterns. Being a fib fan, especially in waves scenarios, I wanted to see if could find anything. Has to be said, this is not a science, on big charts small changes in chart points can lead to big number changes, but I found my rough measurements correlated very well to Fib numbers, and the one that didn't so much can be explained in a fib way (confirmation bias?). However what I loved was the adding up of the ratios and finding them to tally to sets of 3's. Other than the 1.62 which is clear fib ratio, I'm not so sure of the other ratios, although 1/2 .38 + .62 comes close to .78 so maybe it's just my numbers are slightly off. Anyway, gives a nice system to work to in order to guess the coming time span of future volatility lengths. However, I have guessed these at the end based not only on the underlying 3 number but also based on some S&P500 chart fib work I have done. This is on another account but I really must / will remake it here to be published, keep you eyes peeled!
LSE:VILX
by TheDarkEconomist
KEEPING IT COOL!!! VIX SWING TRADE OPPORTUNITY (6 WEEK HORIZON)Pure technically we have seen the weekly VIX candle breach the Bollinger Band 6 times in the last 11 years with a syringe like pattern (more than 70% upside). In my opinion this pattern happens when people are in panic mode. 5 out of 6 times VIX dropped significantly within 6 weeks. The exception (rectangle shape) is the 2008 crisis. My SL will be set at the top of the syringe 62.37 (approx -25%). With a Risk/reward 1:2 my TP is 23.76 (approx +50%). IMPORTANT NOTE: PAST REWARDS DO NOT ALWAYS REFLECT THE FUTURE and because this may be more like a 2008 style pattern. DO NOT INVEST more than 20% of your free cash and be ready for a martingale ( set an alert and double down in the next huge spike)
CBOE:VIXShort
by nikvo1990
2
VIX the index of Fear! (31/07/2018)Hello Traders! There is the devilish and confusing correction on VIX index! Although it’s readable and has the close negative correlation with E-mini S&P 500 and SPY index (etf). Sure, that the price is forming the “Leading Diagonal Triangle” (LDT) in “a” subwave. So it gives the opportunity, to predict continue of uptrend tendency on ES & SPY near time. Subscribe! Join me! «« «« «« «« «« Hold Like! »» »» »» »» »» (If you have questions, comments, write, reply thoroughly!) You're welcome!!! Best regards, trader Igor.
TVC:VIX
by youngfedor