Vixfutures
Countdown to Mega Volatility?#vix #volatilityindex has been declined 2 times after 5th August top. The last declination was at US elections day. Now, it' s clearly seen that TVC:VIX has broke out the trendline resistance for 4 months!. With retest or without retest if this #vixindex is not a fake out, then a great volatility is expected in nearly all markets in short / mid term. A pump in index will surely damage nearly all markets. Avoiding high risky positions is recommended.
VIX GOING BACK UPAfter two false routes (the two white lines), we know for sure that VIX is to go up at some point to make up for the gap it made this week.
The only thing is we thought today's opening would be a higher gap compensating the precedent gap, but it kept getting lower and lower.
Now that we're approaching a low KL, there might be a new opportunity for a long entry, stay advised and always put a tight SL on this.
VIX volatility index fills the gap, what now?#vix the volatility index has filled the gap shown on the chart as red box. Also TVC:VIX index has broken down the bull flag. But, the question is: "A fake down?"
If vix had did this as a fake movement (and only gap filling dump), then a great volatility awaits all markets, just soon.
Using VIX futures to manage equity risk over the US Election One-way traders can look at expected volatility and movement in the S&P500 over the US election volatility is by looking at the premium or the differential that VIX October futures hold over VIX November futures.
Because the VIX index takes in a series of S&P500 options strikes that blend to create a 30-day implied volatility, the October VIX futures essentially looks at S&P500 volatility over the November US election.
Therefore, the higher the premium for VIX October futures over November futures, the greater demand for volatility over the election and the greater the implied movement in US equity markets.
This can be useful for traders who look at event risk and consider the propensity and extent of movement, and whether they want to hold exposures over that risk.
The code in TradingView to use is - VXV2024-CBOE:VXX2024
#VIX fear index and what it means with all its dates#VIX 1M chart;
The VIX (Volatility Index) is an indicator that measures the expected volatility of the market and is often referred to as the " fear index ".
In short, low values indicate a calm market, while high values indicate a tense market with higher stress levels.
By the way, this chart is mainly used by those who trade in the options market.
So what's it going to do for us? Let's see.
The VIX is usually inversely correlated with the S&P 500 index. In other words, it is negatively correlated.
When is the VIX chart triggered?
* Financial crises and economic uncertainty.
* Major corporate bankruptcies or scandals.
* Geopolitical tensions and war threats.
* Large-scale events such as natural disasters or pandemics.
* Major central bank decisions and interest rate changes.
The dates and events I have indicated in the chart;
* October 1998 : Russian debt crisis and the collapse of the Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) hedge fund.
* July 2002 : Dot-com bubble burst and accounting scandals (Enron, WorldCom).
* October 2008 : Global financial crisis, bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.
* May 2010 : Flash Crash - a sudden and massive drop in the US stock market.
* August 2011 : US credit rating downgraded.
* August 2015 : China's economic slowdown and market volatility.
* February 2018 : Inflation fears in the US and a sudden drop in stocks.
* March 2020 : The shock of the COVID-19 pandemic on global markets.
* August 2024 : Bank of Japan's first rate hike in many years.
Here are the details of what two of the above terms mean and why they may have an impact on the markets;
What is a Flash Crash?
On May 6, 2010, an extraordinary event occurred on the US stock markets that lasted only minutes, but caused severe price fluctuations and sudden drops in market values. During this event, the Dow Jones Index fell by about 1000 points in a few minutes and recovered shortly afterwards. It became clear how unprepared the markets were for such an extraordinary event. This continued the domino effect.
Who is Lehman Brothers? Why would its bankruptcy have an impact on the markets?
Lehman Brothers was considered one of the most prestigious investment banks on Wall Street, with a huge influence around the world. Therefore, we can say that such a bankruptcy during the 2008 real estate crisis had the effect of throwing fire on the global markets.
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#VIX prediction for next weekAs can be seen, the price appears to be completing a triangle pattern, which could be interpreted as wave 2 or wave b. Either way, we could expect another rally to complete wave 3 or c.
This analysis is triggered once the price breaks above the previous high, and any bearish retracement could be a buying opportunity.
Let me know if you would like me to publish an analysis in a lower timeframe on this chart to take advantage of this rally.
VIX back to $20?With economists celebrating the "goldilocks economy" and VIX breaking below the lower bound of the pattern, the big question lingers: "Is this another fakeout before resurgence to $20?"
Illustration 1.01
The yellow arrow indicates a breakout below the lower bound of the pattern we have been observing since its early formation.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
VIX, no potential to break out?the closer Weekly BB to resistance, the better odds for VIX break out. Whilst everything is possible, I don't think it has the power or potential to break out.
TLT feels like bottoming somewhere this summer? depends on the inflation metrics. But FED itself believes inflation is coming down.
Often these one-time events are bought by the smart money. Depends if the conflict (mid east) escalates to something more? Maybe there's a broad market risk, outside the quality.
Volatility Indices Analysis (VIX10/VIX50/VIX75)Knowledge Required to nail these synthetic index pairs:
1, Good understanding of price Trend/directions
2, Absolute respect for Supports and Resistances
3, Knowledge of candle stick patterns
4, Discipline to use partial TP, SL
5, Discipline to wait for confirmations and only act when required
See the video for deeper understandinbg of VIX pairs.
Do you require support to make money using VIX pairs? check my profile for more.
VIX Spike - BIG Crash PendingThe VIX will spike again, nothing to do about it.
Fundamentally, a perfect storm is brewing.
We had/have many events in the markets:
- Covid Pandemic
- Supply Chain Disrupted
- Ukraine Invasion
- Russia Sanctions
- Inflation Spike
- Energy Crisis
- Global Drought
- Interest Rates Hikes
What's next, a full-blown WAR?