Vixfutures
US30 short - 0.786% rejected Hello analysts and traders -
We have our chart here to show our thoughts behind the Dow Jones Industrial Average .
Technicals
All time high peaked before the impulsive move to the downside - as the all time acts as a supply zone providing key wicks which show and imbalance between buyers and sellers.
After the impulse - the price showed a hammer - indicating a reversal signal for buyers - plus on a month
Dead cat bounce - to create a quick rally up to show - a V-shaped recovery.
Refer to VIX and S&P, XAU analysis for further insights for correlations.
Pay attention to safehaven pairs for investors moving assets to ensure cash is spread to diversify.
Fibonacci levels - we took the high to low approach - and upon the retracement we saw 0.786 hit our zone and reject.
VIX - analysis shows the trend line has been touched to instill confidence in investors, however the trendline looks to be rejecting and creating a strong buy opportunity, meaning indices sell off opportunity.
Fundamentals
stimulus package from central banks - propping up the stock market but are they really saving businesses small, medium enterprises?
Heath crisis
Travel industry shut, but opening slowly, however the world will disobey opening warnings and decide otherwise on best to take action for themselves.
With northern hemisphere summer travel will be an opportunity to experience a vacation from key countries with no quarantine, however spreading will be inevitable this way.
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Swing trade out looks
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we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise.
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Team Lupa
VIX ABOUT TO EXPLODE HIGHERElliot wave counts on VIX.
It calls for VIX (volatility and fear) to soon explode higher in line with my Elliotwave bearish projections on the S&P Futures (SPX500USD and SPX) and higher calls for the US Dollar Index (DXY).
See below links for Elliotwave counts just posted on S&P Futures and US Dollar Index.
RIsk OFF is about to enter the markets in a major way.
Even though I call for wave C DOWN in the S&P to reach (slightly exceed) the March lows I believe VIX will reach a LOWER High than the March highs as I see the coming wave C down in the S&P to be more orderly and less violent than the Feb and March crash in the S&P.
It is notable the VXN DID NOT MAKE A NEW LOW when the NASDAQ 100 has been making higher highs. This is a Major red flag and warning signal that the NASDAQ has gone too far. See link to he VXN and NASDAQ divergence comparison below also.
Cheers!
Cyrus
ridethepig | VIX Panic Cycle?📍 The main function of the VIX appears to be miles ahead of the relevant flows. In this sense, it itself tends to be mobile. And yet (for it has great vitality!) it is not rare to witness it display considerable activity. Namely:
1️⃣ From the initial ' Swing the Vix into Fed and Q close ' the Vix was prepared .
2️⃣ A certain elasticity, which shows itself in the 'Capitulation Waters' was appropriate to generate the energetic slingshot given the appropriate circumstance.
3️⃣ The journey looked so promising, connection breaks in Vol are usually one way express trains. Stay long.
4️⃣ If we can continue the advance in the absence of capitalism, we are set for a measured return on the expectation of normality but only with more clarity on the timing side. Once reality hits shore, the masses will realise they were sold a turd.
5️⃣ The home run!! A flawless (and serious contender for trade of the year btw) 600%+ swing from the 11/12 lows all the way to 85. Now to put the icing and sprinkles on top, we had to take care of business at the 85 highs.
6️⃣ ...here we are. After a round trip we are back to the strong support at 25 and just below the centre of the flow at 38. The power to develop knowingly here and systematically, unlike during the middle of Covid is to the buyers advantage. The effect of the cycle ending will convey more than one quarter's worth of damage. As soon as the stabilisers (stimulus) is turned off, we are heading for a Sovereign Debt Crisis .
[TVIX] June Price Target Exit Points... You're Gonna Need ThisOk people, things are about ready to boil over here.
Everyone is holding their breath and crossing their fingers that all the economic data dropping first week of June 'won't be as bad as expected' so the market will then rebound.
It's all hopes and dreams though. It's gonna be worse, decent chance of MUCH worse.
If we get to the end of June, and I have to sell off my $150 TVIX at $100 because it was all smooth sailing the whole month. So f*ckin be it. I'll hold my head high and take the L.
But I aint missing a play that could pay up to 5x (proven just two months ago) within a couple weeks when fundamentals are the worst in a century and the global economy is running on hopes and dreams lol.
What a setup.
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Today the price hit the lowest we'll see in awhile at $138 and climbed to $144 by close, that's the bottom.
I also expect that we move out of the buy zone by June 5th and begin harvest preparations.
You're probably reading this after the spike but here's the targets for the few active TVIX riders out there:
Buy Targets:
>$280 = Do not buy (risk/reward ratio starts looking substantially worse here)
$205-$280 = Okay value
$180-$205 = Good value
$150-$180 = Great value
<$150 = You're crazy like me
Sell Targets based on Volume Profile of spike two months ago:
$390 - Will sell 20% of my shares
$600 - Will sell another 20% chunk
$750 - Another 20%
$920 - Another 20%
Best Value - Final 20% trying to catch the peak :)
If at any point a peak looks imminent, prior to the estimated peak here, will dump all. Not trying to be a hero here.
Lets hope for a bountiful June harvest :).
[TVIX] Indicators and Support Pointing toward BreakoutCheckout that upward support trend from May 12th low. That is particularly interesting given the nature of the TVIX to constantly fall lower.
Lookout for ADX crossing the DPO, better the divergence the stronger the trend.
Also lookout for RVI crossing and holding just above RSI, could be a leading indicator here of upward movement. Those indicators are really both primed signaling a pretty strong buy right now.
MACD still terrifying, it's clear something has to break. I'm betting that the news dropping 1st week of June with ensure that break is downward.
I'll be looking to expand my position Thursday and probably get my last bets in Friday before close. Maybe hold till weekend but unlikely we'll need to.
Prepare for the harvest!
[TVIX] 1D, 4H, 1H and 30M All Lined Up for ReferenceMostly reference purposes here.
What an epic setup.
Buy Signals:
1. RSI flipping from buy to sell on the 1D and 4H and holding closely to the sell dashed line in the 4H or 30M
2. OBV trend change, up or down in the 1D or 4H overall but here the 1H and 30M will give quicker signals of the trend change
3. 1D VPT as RSI flipping from buy to sell and 4h holding close to sell dashed line, 1H should hold to buy dashed line at start of uptrend, 30M should be very volatile crossing both dashed lines back and forth frequently.
4. MACD on the 30 and 1H breaking through zero (We've got 3 beautiful waves in both charts that are still waiting on a fourth due anytime *cough*June*cough*), MACD lines on 1D and 4H primed to break up too
5. POC trending 30M>1H>4H>1D (This ones tricky to dial in properly but that's the idea)
There's a lot more there, just some zoomed perspective for all the TVIX riders out there.
VIX long I usually do not post vix trades... however
After some attention was brought to me by traders in my circle.. I have an interesting comparison
vix long dated contracts look to be a play
uncertainty is in the air... election, virus woes, economic data coming out that is brutal, fed running out of ammo, warren buffet not buying, old large cash sitting out this rally, not wanting to buy the top here... only makes sense we see a spike in volatility and a drop in the broader indices to retest lows or take them out going into 2021
from an expert on vix "Right now you are paying almost 0 carry on the futures, ie. it costs nothing to hold them (VIX = medium term futures). If you hold a VIX ETN, you will have a rolling exposure to the medium term futures always... basically both short term and long term futures cost the same to hold right now (usually long term futures much more expensive). So your exposure will be purely directional from a "cost" standpoint. Short term will be more volatile, medium term less volatile. But have to pay attention to the curve in case that dynamic changes."
enjoy...
good luck to all traders
SDOWI noticed a few things happening in the markets.
1. The DJIA has dropped from 29k all the way down to 18k in couple days.
2. SDOW has hit record lows while DJIA puts in lower Highs
3. VIX is still above 30 and has been above 60 during this crash.
The market is pumped up by all these stimulus packages the Don keeps creating, but is still struggling to get back above 25k, while the SDOW is priced as if the DJIA is above ATH's on the DJIA, mix this with the large div between the VIX & SDOW got me thinking when the market crashes (when I said) SDOW will need to play catch up, even if the crash is not as bad % wise as the most recent crash. I am looking for $24 to enter but may close all my longs and enter soon, depends on how the market reacts today. We could stay flat today then open on Monday for 1 last pump to 26-27k next week or we could just start crashing B4 this. So I am monitoring all this as we speak.
Being Brave when others are fearful. VIX near all-time highContinuation of my previous VIX idea. RSI just crossed 70 and Volumes show that Long Volatility is a crowded trade. I will open the position with the 50% of my idle cash so NOT All-in but not a small bet. I am sure traders can find better/higher prices, but i just don't want to lose this opportunity. SL @97.13, TP@19.28, Risk/Reward 2 as usual.
IMPORTANT NOTE: DO NOT OPEN A MARGIN POSITION with this trade or in this environment, we are in a thin liquidity market. You want to provide liquitidy for margin callers, not demand it for your margin call.