Get started

Vixfutures

ridethepig | VIX Positional PlayLet me begin by congratulating all shorts from the 85 highs , perfect timing in another flawless VIX swing traded live together...btw that is now sharing its significant anniversary moves with a historic crash in Global Equities. Mission accomplished! Sellers of Vol can now really consider themselves as an integral player caught in decent profit taking areas which also happen to be the middle of a WIDE range and to put the cherry on top, buyers of Volatility are still under further protection from the virus impact.... it's time to pay attention. As you look at it be sure to notice how the inner strength which belonging to those who bought the initial breakout, failed immediately on the 85 target as expected. We could go on to consider many points which are worth considering, but for the sake of today's example we are going to look at the bullish cash here. Before we turn to the next strategy, we must sum things up: Volatility Cycles you see, project a point in defensive or attacking behaviour as they expect strategic advances of capital flows. It always comes down to the same situation: any swing complex which could be called sound, must always take in the brutal component of Volatility. It is the centrepiece for measuring confidence...and the return to 'normal' life after covid-19 (whatever that means) is all down to confidence. How fast the consumer comes back and managing these expectations is the one to track and it boils down to whether people have the confidence to return to hotels, travel, shops, bars, restaurants etc. The great charter we have traded together so far has played a vital part in predicting decisions and the economic cycle down. Now it is no surprise...It was an essential ingredient for the insane moves I forecast right on time in Unemployment claims. Economists are the unsung heroes of the financial world and their role as academics will only be recognised by politicians by the time it is too late. Selecting important movers and shakers, preparing flows and insuring facts and history align and summarising the strategy precisely all require expertise, intelligence, care and effort. The moment one starts the think about it, one realises how great an impact economic strategy must have on the development of finance. The VIX is in a position of being able to bring together its own herd of early sellers - those betting on the virus to be a one and done quick bounce, then everything is neatly protected again and the shepherd can turn to other matters with a clear mind. No...the stupid sheep will run away from the shepherd - watch-out for the flock, smells to me like the virus ending has one final manoeuvre and a sweep of 100 for a blockbuster headline would be an easily won ending. Remember, the necessity for sellers to clear shorts from the 85 highs is both strategic and planned! We are entering into key value support. This case for a fresh high in VIX would coincide with a fresh low in Global Equities, another round of demand for USD on the G10 FX board (see related ideas below)....it opens many doors, correct handling of the strategy indicates an extremely difficult few weeks ahead and requires exact knowledge of how to play the advance. So I must leave you, dear reader to your own devices, and hope that fate is kind to you. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
TVC:VIXLong
by ridethepig
13
ridethepig | VIX Completing the Swing to 85!!A Vix swing, which did not require "majority" or "consensus", rolled forward under the noses of retail and even some of the larger macro hands. It advanced incredibly far reaching a high of 84.8 ... Don't be a dick for a tick !!! Finally there is an opportunity to clear all targets in the breakthrough. As an example of this, let us turn to the well-know chart VIX - Capitulation Waters. There followed the initial 38 target and 85 extension. The attack was carried out with sufficient substance via Covid-19, if the panic subsides or is reaching a "peak" then Vol must fight for places to make a stand. So the natural indications are 38 and 25 (now that sellers can advance once more). Until this excellent swing was played, the closing of the highs was more of an ideal than reality... Coronavirus turned this ideal into the said reality. This corresponds to the process I have remarked on, that the notional restraint of price gives way to an information block. So much for the strategic and theoretical manoeuvre, the practicality of VIX at these levels creates two new inevitabilities: (1) ... Recession (2) ... Consumer Confidence reaching decade highs Here I would like to point out that, selling VIX remains the correct strategic plan; you can see why in the note in Gold's move. Buyers forsakes the main plan - and tries once more to get in the 1700 highs; but only manages to do so because sellers failed to spot a subtle resource . Naturally in VIX it is pragmatic to aim for 38 and 25 driving Vol buyers all the way back, but one must not go so far as to subordinate the strategically necessary plan to the idea of recessionary effect. As a whole, the classical weakness for art! Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comments, charts and etc coming! I hope it has helped, finally time to unwind a flawless +500% swing to the topside from Q419. Well done all those that caught the move!
CBOE:VIXShort
by ridethepig
23
KEEPING IT COOL!!! VIX SWING TRADE OPPORTUNITY (6 WEEK HORIZON)Pure technically we have seen the weekly VIX candle breach the Bollinger Band 6 times in the last 11 years with a syringe like pattern (more than 70% upside). In my opinion this pattern happens when people are in panic mode. 5 out of 6 times VIX dropped significantly within 6 weeks. The exception (rectangle shape) is the 2008 crisis. My SL will be set at the top of the syringe 62.37 (approx -25%). With a Risk/reward 1:2 my TP is 23.76 (approx +50%). IMPORTANT NOTE: PAST REWARDS DO NOT ALWAYS REFLECT THE FUTURE and because this may be more like a 2008 style pattern. DO NOT INVEST more than 20% of your free cash and be ready for a martingale ( set an alert and double down in the next huge spike)
CBOE:VIXShort
by nikvo1990
2
Volatility Index (VIX)Volatility Index (VIX) is an indicator of volatility and investor sentiment. VIX shows market expectations for the short-term volatility of the S&P 500 index. We look at the long-term chart, then you will see in 2008 the index was around 70  Now we can see 54 for 2 months Last time the crisis was launched within two months - the mortgage crisis of 2007-2008 Now everyone is leaving the market. Oil falls, it all started with the Trump (USA) trade war and China It was all beneficial to American manufacturers. What happened after Italy Russia China agreed and signed a $ 100 billion contract - a trade contract without US involvement. China is the largest holder of US debt and the United States did not like this contract. Partially stopped these processes due to falling markets and due to the virus. As a result, in China, the plants closed. Russia does not publish data on infected coronavirus Crude Oil has fallen The ruble flew up Index Dollar is falling | But the United States does not worry, they think that markets will recover faster, while other markets do not. Facts that the crisis has begun you can see Write your comments Best regards EXCAVO
CBOE:VIX
by EXCAVO
15
Short VIX Play: UVXY PutsDecay strongly favors the contract holder. Notice even in the course of one day, with VIX hanging steady around 35-36, this thing lost $1 over 6 hours. See most insightful post credit to Hungry_Hippo, attached! Traded for $24 in the AM then price relaxed as VIX fell, on viral scare news at 14:38 VIX jumped back to 36 but UVXY reached... 23! This thing fades fast. It contains no real property or equities; ONLY futures short-term contracts, which wind down real fast. Scroll back to see price change over past 8 years; this is not a graph error, it really declined from over $15m to trade where it is today. When market recovers, this ETF will go back in the crapper but it will be much less than when it started in Feb, will go under $13 and should crush down to $10 as the futures in the fund decay with time value. Only risk in it is another tank-off, we could certainly see a retest of the Friday 28 Feb low, but this will still decay! Folks ask; "Why is it still over $20 then?!" Because of reverse splits! When it goes under $10 the exchange splits the shares 1:2 and the price doubles but holders gain half as many shares, eventually adjusted for these splits it will end up trading for a few pennies. DO NOT HOLD THIS ETF!!! My strat: In the Mar $18 and Apr $17 puts, these are fairly cheap plays between $1.1 - 1.6 today. Back at $12 these will be deep ITM. A 0.786 Fib retracement of prices will drive this down to crush levels. This isn't investing advice, just another crack pot scheme; trade at your own risk; GLTA!!!
CBOE:UVXYShort
by DaddySawbucks
7
A spread on volatility (VIX)During this time, we are witnessing to a surge in volatility. Spreads on VIX are becoming interesting. I wouldn't consider the first deliveries as we do not yet know when this period of fear on the financial markets will end. The spread I propose is VXK20-VXM20 (to sell). As we can see from the chart, the spread has turned into an always stronger backwardation (the same did the VIX term structure). The seasonality is (in theory) bearish, but that doesn't mean the spread will drop in the next days/weeks. We have to wait for the end of this wave of panic, before selling the spread with, as the target, a return in contango.
CBOE:VXK2020
by TradingwDavid
ridethepig | VIX Market Commentary 2020.02.23Here we are tracking the massive breakup in Vol; this is looking dangerous and is right on time with Coronavirus kicking in. This was forecast miles in advance (see charts below) and has followed the mapped flows flawlessly since the previous swing we began tracking earlier last year: The sweep of the lows was a textbook example of clearing the board to open up the runway towards 38 and 85. We can continue to just keep recycling positions in the same levels and same direction. The price drivers keep telling us that; US Equities will also receive a major hammer as they are complete dislocated from reality. Good luck all those in VIX from the lows... a flawless +60% position in the @ridethepig portfolio so far from the infamous "Capitulation Waters". Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
1
VIX: Record Net Short OptionsAlthough we primarily trade FX contracts, staying on top of the equity markets around the world can have huge advantages when trying to identify opportunities preparatory to them even showing validity. The CBOE Volatility Index , known by its ticker symbol VIX , is a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility implied by S&P 500 index options. Put simply, this chart represents volatility in the most widely used benchmark in equity markets (SPX) . As you can see, over longer term time frames price has compressed. This can be proven by looking at the average true range indicator (ATR) and historical range percentage indicator (HRP) on the daily timeframe . You will see levels very low; significant because the last time these two indicators were this low on the daily chart the VIX was prior to big spikes in volatility . These are incredibly complacent and quiet markets. There's nothing wrong with equity markets hitting new highs, however the more risk-appetite that traders have in their books and the further it deviates from what we would construe as a well founded risk position. Traders are carrying assets this high up in the market know that their exposure at these prices is risky. This is more of a risk when you consider the representation of volatility seen in the chart above. Looking at futures for the VIX , there is a net short position on the derivatives currently not expired. What's significant though is that the amount of contracts net short is 218,000 a new record. This shows the willingness of the market to take on risk through leverage. Keep in mind, the amount of free cash for Wall Street is at record lows, as the complacency of it itself can be seen just by considering this fact. _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ No part of this book may be reproduced or used in any manner without written permission of the copyright owners except for the use of quotations in a book review. All information and material is for educational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice. 01:29:02 (UTC) Fri Jan 3, 2020
TVC:VIX
by TayFx
3
ridethepig | VIX Market Commentary 2019.12.20A quick update to the Vix chart as we enter into the final important NY session of the year with quadruple witching. For those tracking the previous flows we remain in the same levels with the same targets and the same flows to track: After we cleared TP1 we ran out of steam and decided to trade the retrace back towards Capitulation territory. This was enough to sweep the stops and absorb the floor: We then got the spike in VVIX as it dislocated the from the flows while Vix remained comatose. This is an important highlight to make as we enter into year end with markets happy to trade the reflationary theme something that smells very very off; With 2s5s screaming recession and protectionism hijacking the world what could possibly go wrong? Tracking closely Vix today for the year end flows and 2020 positioning...We will update in depth the fundamentals and technicals 2020 maps for Vix over the holiday period. Thanks for keeping all the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc! Best of luck those tracking VIX for signs of end of the cycle/reflationary 1H20 !!
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
8