Vixfutures
❗️VIX Market Analysis I think we could see a retracement here after the price filled the imbalances and the gap to the pip. Even though I expect the price to go lower to close the imbalances left.
⁉️ VIX Weekly Analysis I expect bearish price action on VIX, as the price broke the structure, filled all the bearish imbalances and rejected from bearish orderblock + institutional figure 35.00. Now the price is free to go down to fill the bullish imbalances. This means LONGS on Indices.
Keep an eye for the VIXUVXY shown here is an ETF of the VIX and it is leveraged, which means its dip under the current trend is insignificant and mostly due to beta slippage. The VIX itself is still trending up and volatility is increasing at an alarming rate. Buyers beware, the winds are changing in the bear's favor and a deepened correction in the major indexes is HIGHLY likely
VIX BEARISH ✅✅✅Expecting bearish price action on VIX as we are in a strong area of resistance 34.00$ price area, price should start the selloff move from there, vix down means stocks go up perfectly correlated on today's moves.
What do you think ? Comment below..
VIX on Triangular Track!Expanding triangle
Target: 49.5
In Elliot-Wave theory, triangles have 5 sides and each side is usually subdivided into 3 waves. Analysis valid as long as the channel stays intact. Equities will micro-bottom mid-June before the commencement of the melt-up rally!
Earlier analysis:
48.5/49.5 achievable with an extended market correction. Implied volatility uptrend due to fundamental reasons ( Inflation /War).
S&P 500 target would equate to 3950-4000 in this projection!
NASDAQ: 12K (Wave 1 top) or 11K (200 Week EMA / 50 Month EMA )
VIX DOWN 📉📉📉Expecting bearish price action on VIX as we have a PARABOLIC move to the upside with a lot of bullish imbalances aka price inefficiencies, price finds resistance around 34.00 and from there we could see a short move.
What do you think ? Comment below..
VIX SHORTS ✅✅✅VIX very strong SHORT as we have 2 bullish GAP's that are opende, price will go to take them out for today. VIX DOWN meaning market sentiment will switcht into RISK ON market scenario. Rise in the stock market + crypto
What do you think ? Comment below..
VIX SHORTS ✅✅✅Expecting bearish price action on VIX as price made a huge bullish GAP, in my experience VIX is filling the bearish/bullish GAP's very very quickly in the same day in 80% of the situations. VIX down means STOCK go up, volatility and fear decreases in the markets
What do you think ? Comment below..
VIX 4H (looks for a direction ) Volatility S&P500 INDEX now it looks for a direction so we can explain by the red zone by the condition opening 4h candle under or above red zone
By opening 4H candle
~Above red zone will be UPWARDD
~Under red zone will be DOWNWARD
VIXKinda thinking bears get rugged soon. Everyone thinks VIX channel 20-36 and play tops & bottoms. But this crash from the highs back down to 19 looks like an impulse W3 to me. Would line up with my bullish SPX analysis
VIX LONGS - RISK OFF ✅✅✅✅ Expecting bullish price action on VIX from a technical perspective as price made a huge move to the downside and rejected the 20$ price area with a bullish GAP this could potentially sign a market reversal or the start of the retracement move within the bearish structure.
I think in the upcoming days we will see the volatility going to the ,,moon,, during un-succesfull talks between Rusia-Ukraine. RISK OFF in the markets
What do you think ? Where we go next from there?
VIX LONGS RETRACEMENT MOVE ✅✅✅✅ Expecting bullish price action on VIX, as price should make a retracement move back into 25-27 area. We opened bullish on the pre-market meaning there was a lot of bullish pressure in the asian session. VIX BULLISH means we could see a selloff move on indexes, i will keep you updated with that as well.
What do you think ? Where we go next ?
VIX BULLISH ✅✅✅✅ Expecting bullish price action on VIX as i think a retracement move is incoming meaning the american indexes should go down. Today price rejected 21.00 price area, i think for the week ahead we will see 25-27 as a possible area where the retracement move will be finished.
What do you think ? Do you agree ?
VOLX bullish momentum! | 14th March 2022Prices are on bullish momentum and consolidating in a parallel channel. We see the potential for a bounce from our buy entry at 28.89 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Projection towards our Take Profit at 35.98 in line with 100% Fibonacci Projection. RSI is at levels where bounces previously occurred.
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VIX SHORTS ✅✅✅VIX shorts into 30.00 as i expect the flow of the markets into RISK ON assets meaning the volatility will go down.
VIX --> 48.5-49.5 in Extended Correction48.5/49.5 achievable with an extended market correction. Implied volatitlity uptrend due to fundamental reasons (Inflation/War).
S&P 500 target would equate to 3950-4000 in this projection!
NASDAQ: 12K (Wave 1 top) or 11K (200 Week EMA / 50 Month EMA)
VIX potential for bounce! | 4th March 2022Prices are consolidating in a triangle pattern. We see the potential for a bounce from our buy entry at 29.48 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension towards our Take Profit at 31.49 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Prices are trading above our ichimoku cloud support, further supporting our bullish bias.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
$VIX - Consolidating Toward an Obvious CatalystLong before Putin rolled his tanks and 180k troops into the independent and democratic nation of Ukraine, there were rightful concerns about inflation and its effect on the US economy. The war in Eastern Europe has served as a convenient distraction for us while we laugh off Jerome Powell's 'transitory' inflation comments.
There have been some indications that inflation was beginning to ease. Economists have largely argued that the economy is healthy- but the Fed was behind on hiking rates. This was put on the back burner as Putin makes grave errors in Ukraine.
Now we are already sneaking up on CPI data release again. The fed chairs have been arguing back and forth between a .25 and .50 hike for over a month. Powell said just yesterday he is leaning toward .25 but left the door open to .50 if the data supports it.
The last CPI was higher in the wrong direction - and the market didn't like it. Over the 12 months from January 2021 to January 2022, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 7.5 percent. This was the largest 12-month increase since the 12-month period ending February 1982. Food prices increased 7.0 percent over the past year, while energy prices rose 27.0 percent.
Prices for food at home rose 7.4 percent over the last 12 months. All of the six major grocery store food groups increased over the period. By far the largest increase was that of meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, which rose 12.2 percent over the year. Prices for dairy and related products increased 3.1 percent, the smallest 12-month increase among in the food at home category.
Prices for food away from home rose 6.4 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since January 1982.
Within the energy category, gasoline prices rose 40.0 percent over the last year, despite declining in January. Prices for natural gas rose 23.9 percent over the last 12 months, and prices for electricity rose 10.7 percent.
Prices for all items less food and energy index rose 6.0 percent, the largest 12-month change since the period ending August 1982. Within this grouping, prices for shelter increased 4.4 percent over the past year, prices for medical care services were up 2.7 percent, and prices for transportation services increased 5.6 percent.
So where does this leave us now?
With a lot of questions and uncertainty. Which is what the market likes the least out of all things.
The VIX has been making lower highs and higher lows for several days and the triangle above suggests a collision path right smack dab on March 10th.
How will the war affect the consumer price index? This remains to be seen.
One can assume only more supply chain disruptions and some added inflation in certain parts of the economy.
A short reminder on what CPI is from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two population groups: all urban consumers and urban wage earners and clerical workers. The all urban consumer group represents about 93 percent of the total U.S. population. It is based on the expenditures of almost all residents of urban or metropolitan areas, including professionals, the self-employed, the poor, the unemployed, and retired people, as well as urban wage earners and clerical workers. Not included in the CPI are the spending patterns of people living in rural nonmetropolitan areas, farming families, people in the Armed Forces, and those in institutions, such as prisons and mental hospitals. Consumer inflation for all urban consumers is measured by two indexes, namely, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
Increase in VOLATILITY on the horizon? It's 1120am MST on 2/28, and I am expecting a further market decline. I already have a VXX call option in play right now and am expecting this position will end up in the money.
It seems Russia/Ukraine war is starting to heat up despite the meeting between the two countries today.
From a technical analysis perspective, there is another inverse head and shoulders forming and the 50 SMA is crossing over both the 100MA and 200MA, which seems to be a bullish indicator for VXX and a bearish indicator for the stock market as a whole.
I hope I am wrong on this one...because that would indicate a de-escalation of the war...which we're all praying for.
HEDGE your BTC and ETH positions... VXX is about to MOON?!!!In my opinion, buying a VXX weekly call option is an amazing way to hedge your crypto portfolio against the market volatility resulting from geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns.
Unless you live under a rock, you've reeceived incessant push notifications regarding the Russia/Ukraine geopolitical conflict and the inflation-driven macroeconomic concerns.
Smart money has already reallocated a sizable percentage of portfolio into stablecoins or cash... But why not CAPTURE ALPHA available from the current market volatility?
Inverse head-and-shoulders patterns are used by some traders to call a downtrend reversal. It's not always a reliable indicator. However, it's my belief this indicator is MORE reliable on the with VXX chart- which is perpetually in a long-term downtrend.
Look closely at the VXX chart, and you'll see TWO inverse head and shoulders patterns:
1. One forming locally over the past couple weeks
2. One that started forming at the end of January
I bought a weekly call option expiring on 2/25 with a strike price of 24. With a target of around 26.50, I'd be shocked if I didn't close this position, or have it expire, IN THE MONEY.
Do YOU AGREE or DISAGREE? Let me know in the comments!
front month vix futures remain overbought (vx1!)the upside in short term vix futures remains muted as limitations on how far out broader market shorts in the money puts are due to backwardation in front month contracts. this is leading to derivatives like UVXY to probably continue to sell off of overbought.
we could find ourselves back in the low 14s UVXY if we see 22 vix again which should be soon. if we go over 28 vix id imagine were headed for 20 UVXY. the weekly picture for vix is bearish.
