front month vix futures remain overbought (vx1!)the upside in short term vix futures remains muted as limitations on how far out broader market shorts in the money puts are due to backwardation in front month contracts. this is leading to derivatives like UVXY to probably continue to sell off of overbought.
we could find ourselves back in the low 14s UVXY if we see 22 vix again which should be soon. if we go over 28 vix id imagine were headed for 20 UVXY. the weekly picture for vix is bearish.
Vixfutures
VIX - load up your longsHello my friends,
I still expect the VIX to move down a bit until end of February.
Then it's a perfect time to go long on it, as we've seen higher highs ans higher lows in the recent time.
18.00 - 18.15 should be the perfect entry.
If you take a look at the larger corrections than it would be around end of April when we can expect the next one. Last Target around 140 - 145.
So be patient until end of February and decide afterwards.
Also it's almost impossible for the VIX to drop below 14.5 in the next few months or even the whole year, so a SL of 14 is really safe right now.
Cheers, Dominik
VIX is on bearish momentum! | 10th Feb 2022Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding to our descending trendline. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 21.46 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 18.15 in line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. MacD is showing bearish momentum and prices are trading under our EMA 28, further supporting our bearish bias.
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VIX SHORTS ✅✅✅I expect bearish price action from this point on VIX as price takes out buy side liquidity above old high printing a new high, we have a GAP that should be filled and a lot of inefficient price action AKA imbalances that should be filled as well, i think we go down from there right into 24-25 that means indexes should RISE that means RISK ON market environment.
What do you think ? Comment below..
"You cannot T.A. the VIX"Hi folks!
There is a saying that you cannot T.A. the VIX - as it is not directly tradeable and is derived from a complex computation based on short term options premiums of the S&P500.
However, the VIX also is an estimate of the expected short term volatility in the market (i.e. in the next 30 days), and by definition should be significantly correlated with realised volatility.
Thus, there are some measures you can take to try predicting market moves:
The Bollinger bands explicitly aims to model the short term realised volatility and the fact that periods of VERY low volatility often preceded periods of high volatility.
In my opinion, it makes perfect sense to analyse the VIX in terms of Bollinger Bands - on the 4h, which I usually use to trade both the VIX and the SPY in general.
I want to test a hypothesis that a very tight BB gap often leads to relatively large VIX spikes.
I also tried to combine it with the MACD indicator to see if we could find an even stronger buy signal, and here are my result based on my extremely brief study:
- A very tight BB gap "always" leads to a relatively large VIX spike.
- If you find a divergence in the MACD at the same time, the signal is even stronger (although the tight BB in itself seems to be the most important signal).
I did only include a chart since the covid-correction until now, as the findings are hard to vizualise over longer time frames.
In my humble opinion, it is absolutely time to buy the VIX now (although it may continue further down, it does not make a huge difference unless you have a tight SL/very short duration of your contracts).
DYOR.
NFA.
I wish you all well :)
VIX LONGS ✅✅✅I see bullish price action on VIX as we are approaching an important area of support if you will, price closed all the bullish gaps made on the last week's panic and right now its going in my opinion to close bearish gap near 28$.
This means RISK OFF in the markets this means SHORT INDEXES.
What do you think ? Comment below..
VIX - Don't Be Afraid of FearVIX is the ticker symbol and the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index,
a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options.
Is a high VIX good or bad?
When the VIX reaches the resistance level, it is considered high and is a signal to purchase stocks—particularly those that reflect the S&P 500.
Support bounces indicate market tops and warn of a potential downturn in the S&P 500.
VIX - Monthly - BIG UPSIDE ON VIXOn the monthly and daily chart, I see VIX making a bullish comeback which suggest we are about to see crazy volatility in the stock market. Combine that with the recent insider selling from Jeff Bezos of around $2 billion worth of amazon shares and Kimbal Musk (Elon Musk's brother) selling around $100 million worth of tesla shares on Nov 5th and then Elon Musk himself proposing to sell his own shares, We are more than likely to see a market pull back or crash in the coming weeks.
The most important crossing since Covid's low, Golden Cross !!!!What Is the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX)?
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index that represents the market's expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the S&P 500 index (SPX). Because it is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates, it generates a 30-day forward projection of volatility. Volatility, or how fast prices change, is often seen as a way to gauge market sentiment, and in particular the degree of fear among market participants.
The index is more commonly known by its ticker symbol and is often referred to simply as "the VIX." It was created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and is maintained by Cboe Global Markets. It is an important index in the world of trading and investment because it provides a quantifiable measure of market risk and investors' sentiments.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index representing the market's expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days.
Investors use the VIX to measure the level of risk, fear, or stress in the market when making investment decisions.
Traders can also trade the VIX using a variety of options and exchange-traded products, or use VIX values to price derivatives.