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VIX is on bearish momentum! | 10th Feb 2022Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding to our descending trendline. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 21.46 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 18.15 in line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. MacD is showing bearish momentum and prices are trading under our EMA 28, further supporting our bearish bias. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FX:VOLXShort
by Rockqet
"You cannot T.A. the VIX"Hi folks! There is a saying that you cannot T.A. the VIX - as it is not directly tradeable and is derived from a complex computation based on short term options premiums of the S&P500. However, the VIX also is an estimate of the expected short term volatility in the market (i.e. in the next 30 days), and by definition should be significantly correlated with realised volatility. Thus, there are some measures you can take to try predicting market moves: The Bollinger bands explicitly aims to model the short term realised volatility and the fact that periods of VERY low volatility often preceded periods of high volatility. In my opinion, it makes perfect sense to analyse the VIX in terms of Bollinger Bands - on the 4h, which I usually use to trade both the VIX and the SPY in general. I want to test a hypothesis that a very tight BB gap often leads to relatively large VIX spikes. I also tried to combine it with the MACD indicator to see if we could find an even stronger buy signal, and here are my result based on my extremely brief study: - A very tight BB gap "always" leads to a relatively large VIX spike. - If you find a divergence in the MACD at the same time, the signal is even stronger (although the tight BB in itself seems to be the most important signal). I did only include a chart since the covid-correction until now, as the findings are hard to vizualise over longer time frames. In my humble opinion, it is absolutely time to buy the VIX now (although it may continue further down, it does not make a huge difference unless you have a tight SL/very short duration of your contracts). DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well :)
TVC:VIXLong
by TheDots
4
VIX - Don't Be Afraid of FearVIX is the ticker symbol and the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. Is a high VIX good or bad? When the VIX reaches the resistance level, it is considered high and is a signal to purchase stocks—particularly those that reflect the S&P 500. Support bounces indicate market tops and warn of a potential downturn in the S&P 500.
TVC:VIX
by TRWORLD2021
SPX500 Update - The Imbalance is forming, what to do?Note before reading; The previous analysis was private, but included in the following analysis; Here: or refer to the bottom link Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the moment, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances for additional sells. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish, but is beginning to profit take and show signs of cracking. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Firstly why has the SPX and US30 become so bullish? Simply put, as the FED Funds have been slashed - and with yields being key to movements of both institutional and retail - credit deposits provide a little return so if the trend is up and to the right, then a standard metric is sure, keep on investing regardless of the high value. This keeps the Shiller ratio and price earnings ratio are seen as "this seems fine" (to view the website to review these metrics, click the link below) - www.multpl.com To further understand this, the use of the cross-asset comparison shows a simplistic view but also a reality. The Daily chart shows us a steep wedge formation - just like the three day chart. Weekly Chart The Fibonacci from the swing low - to the top of the market, which created our new "0" as the new all time high part of the structure. The Continuation of the weekly imbalance had created a new area on the weekly, and bi-monthly timeframe - which offered a 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, indicating that the buying imbalances are still present. . Now the -0.27, -0.618 extension targets are reached. The Wedge channel had begun and created a very strong channel with an effective structure of the sellers attempting to make an imbalance. The channel has now provided areas where price can pivot to. The monthly has a future strong imbalance formed. The three month indicates where price can be used for buying activity* So long as price reacts to the 61.8 & 70.5% levels. See the Pathway where price can take us, using the probability of a bearish imbalance formation. Entry zone? Scenario - consists of a pullback of the market once the low has been made, where price always corrects. Keep in mind the -0.618 can and has the likelihood of returning to 4465*+ to 4702, assess the reactive level again upon an impending sell. Do your due diligence. Where price makes an all time high, price will revert most like back to "0" Fibonacci zero before reloading a bullish run. However, with the -0.786 Yet to be reached, price can offer this level to provide a large pivot point upon an imbalance created, with a liquidity spike capturing stop losses to most . See the second chart proposing the outlook where the full completion occurs. Current position short Short offset to hedge longs is activated adding shorts once the imbalance has formed and retested successfully SPX VS VIX Refer to the weekly negatively correlated SPX and associated Volatility index. *Note: please refer to US30 analysis or VIX for inverse relationship of correlation, not causation* Current scenario Vix Chart - please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors. Current outlook; Using the Daily chart Refer to the DXY chart to follow the imbalance. The analysis link is attached. Cross-asset comparison; Looking to the DXY, US05-US02Y short term yields, look towards the critical levels here where DXY and USDJPY shows an opportunity where imbalances have established. Quantitative easing (QE) is where the increasing the money supply of the system, where the Central Bank creates new money and uses the money to make asset purchases. These asset purchases inject the new money into the system. (QE) tapering will be seen on interest rates. The impact is almost immediate - affecting the sentiment. (QE) can be used where interest is at zero %, as the central bank(s) want to introduce more stimulus. Conversely - when easing occurs, adoption of a new introduction is will send the interest rates shooting, the money to those who can offer the highest interest rates and this competition will send the interest rates skyrocketing. This directly affects the Equity market and the FX safe-haven pairs immediately. Employment In relation to employment is closely linked to that state of inflation or deflation in the economy. When there is excess money in the economy, the confidence is upbeat and CPI aligns with goods production resulting in people getting employed in the economy or in this case - returning to the original job before the pandemic. Therefore quantitative easing (QE) is positively correlated to a higher employment level* subject to NFP "True" figure of new jobs created, not in the aspect of 'Return to work'. See the article snippet below affecting the US Market. "On Labor Day, COVID-era expanded unemployment benefit programs expired. Those temporary programs included the $300 weekly bonus checks as well as coverage for those who are normally ineligible for unemployment insurance, like gig workers and the long-term unemployed. More than 11 million people were impacted by the cutoff, and roughly 7.5 million people lost their benefits entirely". - Source CNET.com/personal-finance/your/money Inflation or Deflation? inflation is likely to turn into deflation through (QE) where tapering pulls money out of the system, where less money (as compared to before) chasing the goods available, making every good less expensive. Great for consumers?! But this is no longer the case as for the wider majority - prices are now starting to take shape and cuts need to be made, and rates need to be hiked. Daily Fibonacci using the USD CAD The technical aspect here is price will need to engineer a long movement so when coming to a pivotal point on the Fibonacci extension target, price will react here, allowing discounted buy opportunities. However, price retested the Imbalance upon the weekly back to lows of 1.23 - 1.22, majority of original buyers will find new entries and the sellers would be looking to remove profits or shaken out of late positions added. - this is a point of interest or (POI), where price has consolidated heaps and has now double bottomed and now heading towards "0" Fibonacci. Chinese situation: A quick insight to how the Chinese market works The chinese property is leased for 70 years from the government who will be brought up by Real estate companies who will design and pre-sale units to investors, who will buy off plan using deposits. The cycle of funds will allow the developer to fund the next, complete or buy further leases for the next project, leaving a debt cycle Referring to China A50 USD - the FTSE China 50. Collapse of Evergrande Regulators have warned that its $305 billion of liabilities could spark broader risks to China's financial system if its debts are not stabilised. This will have ripple effects upon the US, Australian market relating to commodity imports from Australia with Copper, Iron has hit these commodities with creating imbalance sells upon the metals. China - will the CCP allow Evergrande to default? "Evergrande's woes also pressured the broader property sector, with Hong Kong-listed shares of small-sized Chinese developer Sinic Holdings (2103.HK) down 87%, wiping $1.5 billion off its market value before trading was suspended" Reuters. Whilst the Chinese real estate market has large multiple ratio where the Chinese seek the real estate to be a wealth inidcator. Despite the prices of price to income ratio as a whole in china the property price is 27.89x the avg income. Expressed as a mortgage % of income is 223% of monthly income. Source: www.numbeo.com What do you think about the current state? Is inflation now transitory - with new FED comments - "Clearly the risk of more persistent inflation has risen," Powell said in testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. ... He pledged that policymakers "will use our tools to make sure that higher inflation does not become entrenched." source: www.channelnewsasia.com www.bloomberg.com Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
OANDA:SPX500USD
by LupaCapital
2
VIX - Monthly - BIG UPSIDE ON VIXOn the monthly and daily chart, I see VIX making a bullish comeback which suggest we are about to see crazy volatility in the stock market. Combine that with the recent insider selling from Jeff Bezos of around $2 billion worth of amazon shares and Kimbal Musk (Elon Musk's brother) selling around $100 million worth of tesla shares on Nov 5th and then Elon Musk himself proposing to sell his own shares, We are more than likely to see a market pull back or crash in the coming weeks.
TVC:VIXLong
by abm-trading
The most important crossing since Covid's low, Golden Cross !!!!What Is the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX)? The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index that represents the market's expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the S&P 500 index (SPX). Because it is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates, it generates a 30-day forward projection of volatility. Volatility, or how fast prices change, is often seen as a way to gauge market sentiment, and in particular the degree of fear among market participants. The index is more commonly known by its ticker symbol and is often referred to simply as "the VIX." It was created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and is maintained by Cboe Global Markets. It is an important index in the world of trading and investment because it provides a quantifiable measure of market risk and investors' sentiments. KEY TAKEAWAYS The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index representing the market's expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors use the VIX to measure the level of risk, fear, or stress in the market when making investment decisions. Traders can also trade the VIX using a variety of options and exchange-traded products, or use VIX values to price derivatives.
TVC:VIX
by samitrading
S&P500 third consecutive triple DIV!Hi folks! This - in addition to almost everything in financial markets ATM - is very scary reading. S&P500 just flashed a third consecutive (i.e. uninterupted by an equivalent buy signal) Triple Divergence (RSI, MACD and Volume) since the covid-correction on the dialy. Usually, one such signal is a bad sign, but three consecutive ones is just madness. Time to hand over the bags and buy volatility, short or just sit ut out completely - just everything else than being long the stock market. For me, I have accumulated VIX futures (VIXY ETF) since the end of june at all times when it dipped under 16 to protect my long holdings. I sold almost all my other holdings late friday after the bounce - its just a terrible risk/reward ATM. DYOR. NFA. Never take the word of others as a given - and never take advise from someone without skin in your game.
SP:SPXShort
by TheDots