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Vixfutures

S&P500 third consecutive triple DIV!Hi folks! This - in addition to almost everything in financial markets ATM - is very scary reading. S&P500 just flashed a third consecutive (i.e. uninterupted by an equivalent buy signal) Triple Divergence (RSI, MACD and Volume) since the covid-correction on the dialy. Usually, one such signal is a bad sign, but three consecutive ones is just madness. Time to hand over the bags and buy volatility, short or just sit ut out completely - just everything else than being long the stock market. For me, I have accumulated VIX futures (VIXY ETF) since the end of june at all times when it dipped under 16 to protect my long holdings. I sold almost all my other holdings late friday after the bounce - its just a terrible risk/reward ATM. DYOR. NFA. Never take the word of others as a given - and never take advise from someone without skin in your game.
SP:SPXShort
by TheDots
The case for VIX right now - Margin Debt down 4.3%Hi folks! As you may know, FINRA published the Margin Debt Statistics for July the other day. As you may also know, tops in prolonged and explosive runs in margin debt usually precede big corrections/crashes in the S&P500 by a couple of months The Margin Debt reading was down 4.3% from July after 15 consecutive months of increase (!) Here is my idea on how to play the situation: The VIX (CBOE Implied volatility from Option premiums on S&P500 for the next 30 days) is currently sitting at a measly 17.12 (albeit after a massive surge from a steal of 15.22 last week) - below its historical average of 19.52. Now, since the margin debt very likely topped out in July and the market tends to follow suit a few months later (in addition to just about every thing else - monetary policy, delta, debt ceiling, labor exodus, inflation etc.), it is reasonable to assume that the probability distribution is heavily skewed to the downside for the time to come. Being able to buy the VIX - which is an estimate of future volatility - below its average at such a state seems worth considering. Based on this idea, I took the liberty to create a chart marking the following - in addition to S&P500 and VIX from 1999: (1) Tops in margin debt (Black verticals) (2) Bottoms in VIX before crashes (Cyan verticals) (3) Sell signals based on concurrent bearish DIV in RSI+MACD (Red verticals) (4) Beginning of market crashes (red cross) (5) Current VIX level (orange vertical) As we can see, the S&P500 do usually take a big tumble a couple of months after tops in margin debt. More interestingly is the VIX bottoms, however - the VIX usually also bottom out some time before markets crash (this makes perfect sense, as bottoms represent states of the market where very few expect volatility). Thus, although it is hard to time the markets, this might be one of the very few really good Risk adjusted bets you can find right now. My strategy since the end of June has been to just sell a little bit of my stock portfolio every week to buy some VIX, and then sell some VIX contracts during periods of small volatility spikes to cope with the future premiums over time. I bought a massive position on Friday and another one today due to the Margin Debt reading. I will continue to buy as long as complacency dominates the market. On another note, I always use historical data to weight my bets according to the Kelly Criterion (ex: www.frontiersin.org) The simplest way to trade the VIX unless you are familiar with derivative platforms is to buy ETFS such as VXX, VIXY, VOOL.DE etc* Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I urge everyone to always do their own research, and never take the word of other for granted. In addition, never take advise from someone who has nothing to lose from giving it to you nor follow the advise themselves - that is why I disclose my positions. I wish you all well! Good luck :)
SP:SPXLong
by TheDots
ES Weekly Analysis (Buy with Caution)The current market conditions is giving me cause to pause as it relates to putting in buy orders. To me it seems as if the market is poised for a steep correction over the next week or so. My current thesis is based on the fact that the ES-Mini for the better part of this week was priced well above the weekly 3 ATR. What was particularly alarming for me was that nearly every time we have that type of run to those prices we've seen a steep pull back in the coming weeks. Currently I have a "No Buy Zone" of any contracts priced above 4400 all the way up to 4504 (also want to note that for the better part of this week my "No Buy Zone" ranged from 4380-4453). In my view we are seeing buyers like myself shy away from those higher priced contracts in fear of having the algos pulling the carpet on us for 100-130 points. The daily chart also is resonating the weekly sentiment in that we are seeing a decline in V-Score which is indicative of buyer exhaustion. (See Chart link for more details) Even more alarming is the weekly VIX chart which illustrates that the VIX is currently in a squeeze which could spell trouble for buyers if they get caught reaching for expensive contracts in the "No Buy Zone." (See Chart link for more details) (Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.)
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by aauguste
How Stocks Can Go Up In a Bear Market.Here are some hypothetical numbers I formulated, which by the way you can take with a grain of salt. It is for entertainment purposes only. Some Tabloids you may find interesting: 80% of the stock market is now on autopilot. Jun 29, 2019 Algorithmic trading is accounted for around 60-73% of the overall United States equity trading. Feb 5, 2019 Considered by many wildlife biologists to be one of the most intelligent land animals of North America, bears possess the largest and most convoluted brains relative to their size of any land mammal. Jun 10, 2008 It is thought that loneliness may contribute to cognitive decline through multiple pathways, including physical inactivity, symptoms of depression, poor sleep and increased blood pressure and inflammation. Loneliness has also been found to increase the risk of developing dementia by as much as 20%. Loneliness, it seems, can lead to long-term "fight-or-flight" stress signaling, which negatively affects immune system functioning. Simply put, people who feel lonely have less immunity and more inflammation than people who don't. This increases the risk of contracting deadly diseases and viruses by ten-fold. Aug 4, 2020
AMEX:SPYShort
by Bearliever
VOLATILITY B WAVENew all-time highs in the market combined with a creeping VIX are cause for some alarm. Inflation hedges/bets seems to be the talk of late with inflation on the rise.. and this is not unwise considering that money supply is off the chart and velocity is sure to pick up... although velocity is not a necessary component of inflation. Remember that the market is forward looking and when something becomes obvious to you, you are are usually late to that fact. I believe volatility is bottoming in this range and is very likely to start the B wave of a larger wedge. I had expected this to begin sooner. If this is indeed a new, larger wedge, then perhaps it's even bigger than I anticipated. I also believe the market is quite a ways off from any major crash like we had in March of 2020...perhaps years out. But that does not mean we will not have sharp drops with periods of volatility.. I tend to think we are nearing that now. Be on the lookout for market noise and flush-outs. There are likely to be some decent buying opportunities made available in many stocks soon. Hold fast.
TVC:VIXLong
by gghsusa
4
Be careful - Wait for next bottom (long VIX?)Hi folks! I think we are in a macroeconomic state that suggest extreme caution with ones investments, so I would personally rather stack up on something like VIX futures than anything else these days - se the linked post on my macro take). Note that the big stock indexes (Sp500, Nasdaq, Dow, Nikkei, DAX etc.) also have horrible technicals right now. However, there might be decent trading opportunities in volatile assets, and we have seen time and time again that the trigger for trend reversal is a strong bullish divergence at the second big bottom on the 30m/1h on BTCUSD. If we see this now, it might also be a decent time to start a DCA again for People Who sold in time. Be careful! Never take the word of others as a given. I wish you all well :) DYOR.NFA.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by TheDots
Volatility - The Temple of King SolomonIdea for VIX: - The Short Volatility Bubble will pop. - Transmutation of Risk cannot make Volatility disappear, only hide it. - There is an estimated $2+ trillion global short stock market volatility bubble. - Explicit Short Vol: $60 bn (pension overwriting, VIX, vol selling funds) - Implicit Short Vol: $1.4 tn (Risk Parity, Var Control, Risk Premia, CTAs) - Share buybacks: $3.8 tn since 2009. (1) When the world is short, go long. GLHF - DPT Reference: (1) "Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk", Artemis Capital Management
TVC:VIXLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
2
ridethepig | VIX Exploding 📌 ridethepig | VIX Exploding Morning all... a short post, but one that is full of dramatic events. The 'discovered naked short' from wsb is a wildfire burning...the cleanest place to see the damage is in vol. This discovered vector in GME clarified the damaged relationship between central banks and market pricing while QE infinity provides a cover a 'risk free' environment. It's very similar to the round trip explosion we traded last year from 12 to 85 and back again. When you pin shorts (the root of all evil), whether its GME, BB or VIX... it has enormous mobility. The magic of reddit has exposed Melvin Capital, Blackrock (own +/- 10% of GME) et al, while Citadel cheerlead in the background and will of course be fine and make money either way. Let us take a closer look at the possible moves with the VIX; I find that the 44 pivot which is in the crosshairs can do one of two things; a) The offer can evaporate rather quickly, even if it was previously nailed by barrier, which will trigger a momentum gambit towards 85. b) We can attack and our opponent (sellers) without any anxiety step back in to occupy the control since it is their jurisdiction, i.e. one ladder that is controlled by your opponent. Now consider the latest chart update: Here a) was very much dependent on the October 2020 highs. Bear in mind how unafraid the buyers which are moving with force are. The wildfires are capable of satisfying a healthy appetite from retailers. with that in mind we are going to see capitulation across some more names. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
8
VILX - VIX ETF 2.25 Volatility - Fibonacci Summer CorrectionI'm thinking to make a nice play on my upcoming correction belief. Only option I have with my broker is VILX, so started looking into it's history. Only makes big money with big crashes / corrections, and I think we have two on the way. Data was so small for the main chart, but looking at the RSI here, some very interested volatility wave patterns. I'm always interested to see if there is fib correlations in dates and movements, and this one took some old school math to show. Very interesting! Soon be time to make a play on this, wish me luck ;)
LSE:VILXShort
by TheDarkEconomist
Fun With Fibonacci - VILX Fund - Amplified VIX I'm 100% certain a big correction is coming (possibly barring any stimulus that may scupper this, likelihood is it could even be the cause!) start of Q2 2021. I want to make a Vix play on this and this is my only option with my broker so been taking a dive. Straight away, arcs of intent everywhere, clear ebb and flow patterns. Being a fib fan, especially in waves scenarios, I wanted to see if could find anything. Has to be said, this is not a science, on big charts small changes in chart points can lead to big number changes, but I found my rough measurements correlated very well to Fib numbers, and the one that didn't so much can be explained in a fib way (confirmation bias?). However what I loved was the adding up of the ratios and finding them to tally to sets of 3's. Other than the 1.62 which is clear fib ratio, I'm not so sure of the other ratios, although 1/2 .38 + .62 comes close to .78 so maybe it's just my numbers are slightly off. Anyway, gives a nice system to work to in order to guess the coming time span of future volatility lengths. However, I have guessed these at the end based not only on the underlying 3 number but also based on some S&P500 chart fib work I have done. This is on another account but I really must / will remake it here to be published, keep you eyes peeled!
LSE:VILX
by TheDarkEconomist
Volatility is here to stayRecord inflows and volume reported for vix related derivatives in January. Markets are increasingly getting worried about the bubblenomics that the fed has been pursuing investigating cases like GME may be a symptom of an unhealthy market environment. Rampant speculation has insisted since March boosting asset values but at the cost of what? This is a money game and the players with the deepest pockets always win. History repeats and retails investors get left with holding the bag time and time again. Maybe in the new age of finance this time will be different we will see.... January 26. I am Long Vix
CBOE:UVXYLong
by Bearliever
THE NEXT WAVE OF VOLATILITYMarket volume is drying up and we're seeing historic put:call ratio's on the indices. We have the necessary ingredients in the cake for a another wave of volatility to hit the market. Please see my previous post about the VIX and the compression patterns that often occur. Volatility tends to get bottled up and then erupt. We are likely in a bottling-up zone where fear is gone, and all is calm.. I suppose this can continue but I like to think we're nearing a volatility cycle low. I am of the opinion that the VIX is in a new, giant, price wedge. If you look at this chart, I think (a) will be tagged.. but perhaps it already has? I don't know. It could be now or it could be weeks from now. I'm speculating on the pattern some, but I will be looking to hedge my portfolio with long calls in volatility over the coming weeks.. and even months if necessary. I have learned to completely ignore mainstream news and focus entirely on the data. The math doesn't lie. People do. Something to think about- Let's pretend I'm right about this being a new, giant price wedge. If this forecast turns out to hold water, then the market is likely to go significantly higher over the next couple of years.. I don't want to even mention numbers because this could be a big pattern. Regardless, I'm looking for the next wave of volatility to come rolling in. I've been around long enough to know that the market can creep & creep for weeks or months before pivots. Timing a market top is extremely difficult so one must not be too biased or emotional. Another possibility: What if the VIX is already out of the cage? What if this isn't a new compression wedge? This pattern is my "optimistic" perspective for the markets.. It's possible that the vix could take off like a rocket to new highs where markets completely unravel. In time, the fundamentals WILL take over. I have no idea how much time we have.. all I can do is analyze the data.
TVC:VIX
by gghsusa
8
I'm hearing scary things - SELLI am short the entire market. What I was just told by a high level politician is earth shattering and biblical. The USA Corp. is bankrupt. The previous president signed a new Declaration of Independence on July 4, 2020. Check his wife's Twitter posts. The United States is now running under the original 1776 Constitution and everything that has happened by the new administration is null/void including the inauguration. I was told everything Congress and the Senate are doing and have done, is null/void because it was done under the old USA, Corp. I was also told, due to the election fraud, and the illegal certification of a fraudulent election by the previous V.P., it is treason. I was told to read the 14th Amendment. I was also told the military is running the United States, and not who you think. As for Washington D.C., I am being told at least 2000 troops will remain and arrests will start taking place soon. I am told this is the biggest military sting operation in the history of the United States and even the World. I was told big news is forthcoming. Moving into cash. SHORT!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HotCharts
4
ridethepig | VIX for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig VIX Market Commentary 18.12.2020 A good time to update the VIX chart for the traditional Quad witching flows....After an exchange in Q1 2020 with VIX exploding to the topside as widely expected for all those following, there is now what follows, an opportunity for a panic cycle next week (21st December) followed by another window in January for the extraction. A weaker sell side has allowed the zig zag advance, buyers are threatening to decisively break the highs once more unlocking an execution at 85 for another board clear. The position in my books is finally won by buyers, the ending will be instructive of US equities in particular. The position also has a chance of drawing at 20.0x support. While the same 85 targets (the position is an important link to the GA run off in Jan), taking the highs means we must chase and play from the centre. Buyers will wish to prove that 'resistance' is hanging by a thread, it might work. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | VIX Panic Cycle📍 The theme we have set ourselves here for an expansion in Vol into next week, would usually provide enough material for an entire website, but lack of space compels me to moderate this into a short and snappy post. I shall only point out the most important notions and events from 2019 and save a deeper examination for later. The most brilliant post covid act, to be sure the idea of an expansion in volatility is not only linked to the increase in danger from a health rollercoaster which I propagated, based on the models. But VIX's move is surprising and I will not deny the brilliance of the full retrace. Also interesting is our earlier attempts to break up and make use of the flexible highs which we discovered ahead of US elections. All models are ticking up for the NY session today and looks set to last into next week. Aiming for the full set-up with 42 and 85. It is also worth noting that 42 is an interesting defence, going on to pressurise Biden with a 'hospital pass' for those familiar with the terminology in Rugby, it is where you are so fixated on catching the ball while it is in the air, that you forget about everything else around you. This early complacency, looks as anti-pseudo-capitalist as possible, but has found a good number of followers and turned out to be an extremely fruitful trade in equities. Major chart updates coming across the board over the coming hours and weekend. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎...
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
9