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Vixfutures

The Mother of Volatility (VVIX)VVIX is the mother of volatility. It's already elevated, the initial shock and awe stage is done. SPX has to go down from here (which equates to more shock, awe and disbelief) for VVIX to rise substantially and for VIX futures & VIX options to behave accordingly. Expecting a pullback (similar to my last $VIX chart) before rocketing much higher (March levels). Keep in mind that the VIX futures curve shifted downwards yesterday while still maintaining backwardation (that's why $UVXY was down so much). Historical volatility is 18, now it's 38. If SPX rises, this will trigger the long vol guys who didn't position long vol.
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by VisionCodeX
ridethepig | Vix into the elections and 2021📌  Vix - Volatility An expansion of volatility is coming; the attempt to step against the flow of Covid chapter II is reckless to say the least. According to my models, we have unfinished business to be done at 85 once more. I will continue to hold longs and look to add on dips for example towards 25, or enjoy a momentum gambit when we see the breakup. This idea is very similar to the same struggle we had in Q1. The stratagem of a contraction in globalisation is illustrated via an expansion of volatility . Buyers opened the attack position in a +600% move as capitalism surrendered. Sellers are already on their last legs.
TVC:VIXLong
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | Volatility into the electionsI should like to start with a reminder of the operational plan for the first Covid chapter. 📌 Covid Chapter I The terrain here was clear. My models were picking up on a sweep of the lows in VIX to clear the path for a +600% expansion. In order for us to manoeuvre around this we must understand how large hands move various assets at quite a precise moment. Let's continue to work through this example of the first chapter which will set the scene for our current leg. So the lows were swept in Q419 as expected to prepare the manoeuvres from that point. So the next chart should be considered here as a fortified support with lust to expand. It would only be right and proper for us to describe what comes next as impulsive, a move that was not without reason and certainly not without fear. And finally buyers ran out of steam as we approached the 85 main SWING TARGET . From 85 I was eyeballing a retrace towards 25. Look how easy it is to make use of the expansion. I see this as further proof of the enormous vitality of overprotecting support/resistance. If you 'know' where are the stops, you know hot to make use and expose with an appropriate reply. This was one of my favourite calls. 📌 Covid Chapter II This is clear proof that we are in sync with lockdowns and covid providing the manoeuvres. As we enter into the eye of the storm for the second wave, sentiment is definitively turning softer, although this case is much more complicated. If buyers remain passive above the 44/45 highs then we can see a well-timed massage from stimulus. In other words, we need the moves to happen before the elections and are running out of time. Buyers have developed a considerable appetite, bankruptcies are coming and complacency is repeating itself. We have two possibilities here existing for the terrain in Covid Chapter II. The breakout of the highs in this consolidation block to unlock a re-visit of 85 resistance assuming things go tits up in the coming days/weeks. Sellers of volatility have nothing immediately in play because of covid and contested election risk. The only correctness of the thesis comes from stimulus, which is an expectation now for after the elections. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
3
VIX Apocalypse$VIX: $VIX term structure suggests elevated volatility in the coming weeks/months. Welcome to backwardation. This is usually a good time to own $UVXY since the carry is low & actually compensates you for owning volatility. The only issue is that spot $VIX needs to rise and $SPX needs to sell. Then $UVXY will have an asymmetric payout. However, for now, without $SPX declining we're just waiting around at this point with slightly positive carry. If $SPX rallies now with backwardation occurring $UVXY loses big time. The opposite will occur if $SPX declines. Overall, a big move in either direction is incoming. No point in trying to predict where this will land. I'm waiting for a breakout for an indication of where/how I will position. Let price action decide. #STUDY Cheers
TVC:VIX
by VisionCodeX
2
ridethepig | Surfing the Vix⚠️ Chapter IV: Vix and microstructure ⚠️ For those following the swings in Vix since 2019 you will know we are tracking for the overprotection from sellers and how to try to get rid of the 'all is back to normal' sentiment. This is a shorter update than the previous three chapters, intentionally aimed at casting some light on how sellers are overshooting support and how risk 'may' appear in the microstructure. So let us start by recapping the swings between the starting point of the expansion which set this all in motion: Capitulation waters clearly represents a manoeuvre which is closely intertwined with microstructure and liquidity game theory and indeed must always be so because of the nature of free markets. Nevertheless, there are traces of overshoots to the downside . For example when sellers went overboard to sweep the lows underneath 12 in attempt of opening the single digit block: Buyers loaded and created a strong basing formation as pointed out in chapter II. In the area where sellers overshot is a strategy you will notice me using often. Play through the charts and notice how minimal drawdown was required at the base ( for which we gave incredible respect ) and because we had to keep in mind the unavoidable possibility of economic cycle inversions. Here is the final example in the recap after we exploded towards the 85 final target as called from 12 (+500% and a historic move in volatility). "VIX Completing the Swing to 85" Intending to meet a possible barrier at 38 and 25, only now does it become clear as to why price stalled at the highs instead of developing a three figure vix print. No matter what happens, this has and will remain three superb chapters of effortless unravelling of the soft retail and unaware institutional money . The spare room to 100 remains open. I think the 'everything is back to normal' crowd are too hasty in this and do not realise the tsunami of bankruptcies and debt on the horizon as we enter into year-end and 2021. Every digit retrace point in the VIX from current levels should be bought aggressively for a position way out to the 85 highs and 100 extensions for an epic news headline. This move should by now be chalked on all charts . As usual thanks all for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
23
Vix - don't forget about these key levelsHello, Here we are going to start to see VIX lead the way and direct the Global Equity flows in a turbulent election and coronavirus struggle.. The S&P 500 is becoming volatile signs of indecisiveness. We will see the VIX volatile around 18-24.. this zone is and important gap - which has not been filled. - we have been holding losses .. but now easing to profits. Long term hold Psychological aspect - hold losses on this one - this will be an important hedge. imbalance between buyers and sellers is evident within the indexes. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
TVC:VIXLong
by LupaCapital
ridethepig | VIX Slingshot In Play 📌 Working in public has given us a live example of Volatility expanding in times of a crisis. Here it is usually a swing recap for those following. As you will remember we made good use of the initial tempo in the retreat : The show must go on... in came buyers with the counter attack and no surprises on the timing, covid was simply the trigger. To save the overshoots, we cleared all and even covered some at the 85 highs. 📌 When a deep retrace came into play it has created enough energy for a slingshot. Buyers of volatility are quite happy to exchange here at the lows as they are in full control and holding the bid at 🔑 support. Sellers of vol and the 'everything is back to normal crowds' will be condemned to liquidation. This wave 2 attempt at breaching support which has miserably failed today is a visual example of pinning your opponent. The key point is liquidations. Global Equities are complacent, retail have bought as much as they can. Large hands have cleared, since the Covid chapter II irritates them (from a retracement perspective at the very least). And it will comedown to a massacre in VIX... Seriously it is just as well we are seeing the back of VVIX...that really was a monster. 📌 How and Why these slingshots occur in VIX? When major forces on both sides clash together, it comes down to an exchange. In this case the health crisis cannot be solved via the monetary or fiscal side, shutting down the economy has caused long term repercussions. Especially with the elderly and overshoots on dependencies. In simply terms the older demographics will be forced into using savings to support families, businesses will be more defensive with capital, the issue is not solved with stimulus, it is solved with CONFIDENCE . The policy mistakes here are off the charts and may even cost Trump the election. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:VIXLong
by ridethepig
18
VIX: Nuetral leaning Long Over all weakening support for the broader markets, aside from media frenzied pharma and the NASDAQ's push behind earnings likely to see some sell off today. Directional movement showing bearish indications, will watch supports and resistances closely today along with charted trend lines on the cube. Initial overlay on 30d/3Hr analysis. Starting to see more volatility support as fear and uncertainty enter the space again. Watching 2y, 10y Bonds, copper, crude as well as rough rice as indicators for bearish plays. Expecting some reversal on precious metals primarily gold, may be a good time to pick up some short positions over the next 2-3 days.
TVC:VIX
by foxtech
VIX FUTURE EXPIRATION JULY 22: short-term bearish impact on SPXCredit for this research goes to Nomura's Charlie McElligott - as reported by Zerohedge.com tonight. Tomorrow (I'm in LA so it is just before midnight here) or today (depending on your timezone and when you see this post) Wednesday, July 22 is VIX Futures expirations day. Last expirations and next expirations for 2020: 22 January 2020 19 February 2020 18 March 2020 15 April 2020 20 May 2020 17 June 2020 22 July 2020 19 August 2020 16 September 2020 21 October 2020 18 November 2020 16 December 2020 I have taken the liberty of putting an arrow on past SPX trading days which coincided with VIX Futures expirations in 2020 including the next ones on July 22 and August 19 (though we don't obviously know where the index will be on Aug 19). As can see the short-term impact has been mildly bearish for a few days or extremely bearish. Notably, the all-time high of Feb 19 was one such VIX Futures expiration day. If history is any indicator we should expect Wednesday and for a few days after at least - to be bearish for the SPX. It is also to be noted VIX on a relative basis for 2020 is at low levels and sitting just above support where it sat on June 8th at the previous peak of the SPX (and the bear market rally end for the Dow and Russel 2000). It is primed to explode higher in other words. Trade accordingly. Cheers! Cyrus
SP:SPXShort
by cyrusgr8
Indicators for UVXYThis is the UVXY at the hourly. I think I found indicators that help predict a VIX bull day. 1) The purple lines on the chart are the Bollinger Bands set at the daily scale. 2) Middle indicator is the Divergence Indicator. It's the RSI, but helps identify divergences with RSI. 3) Bottom indicator is the MACD Divergence Indicator. Essentially, if the UVXY is or near oversold and has a bullish divergence (RSI or MACD), then a bull run happens shortly after. Whenever the UVXY touches/breaks the lower daily Bollinger Band, a bull run won't be that far away. If this can be mastered with identifying wedge patterns, then you can make serious profits from volatility trading.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by Itsallsotiresome
2