VIX is getting for its own prime timeWatching 20-21 zone for a support.
Historically VIX 20 zone is the bear/bull line.
I expect that to me either tested or even broken for a fake move down and then start to explode.
When VIX is at 45+ watch for the market capitulation. Ideal target for the VIX is 65+ early next year.
When its moving above 35 and especially 45, no no longs for me period, only sell the rips (if there will be any)
Im in with Apr VIX 35 calls, will add tomorrow and on the 28th
Vixlong
S&PHello and welcome to this analysis
S&P appears to be still on its corrective path, the bounce had came from a heavily oversold zone.
Now going forward this fall if it protects 3500 then it could be a exp flat b of iv and spend some more time sideways (triangle) or retest the swing high with c of iv. Breach of 3500 would suggest 5th to take it down to 3350 approx.
Buckle up for more volatility
VIX Red, Markets Down, Nothing makes sense anymore:)VIX is waiting for its prime time and its coming soon imo
Im bullish with VIX and will start buying Apr 2023 40 calls on Monday.
There was no capitulation on the markets so is the VIX 2-3x rally!
Means the markets have more down to go and the next move will be very violent!
Things will start to move after the elections, means very soon!
VIX interesting fractalI have checked the amount of days from Mar 2020 first spike to the main low of this VIX smile, its 491d
If counting from the same low day 491d it comes to Nov 2nd! give it plus one day in case I should of start from the following day of the mid low.
Very interesting timing.
Also week of Nov 7th is a cycle panic week...
Im only looking up in VIX
2X 4HR VIX ANALYSIS (200 EMA) (NEXT STOP BEFORE RUN !?)The Vix is the end all be all for stock once it spikes up. AS we look at previous cycles and price action we can see The vix is at a key level where it took off from october 22nd and september 22nd. If we get a reject or bullish confirmation look for the market to sell off because if volatility stays above 35 mark off buy areas for your favorite stocks and get ready to load puts stocks will discount way more!
VIX is still in a setup to blow off the top move to above 65+Im still very bullish on VIC and want to see 2x on VIX at min, ideally we get even 2.5-3x
VIX OPEX is behind us and monthly will come tomorrow, after that we are free to move in a wider range and have new levels to be seen.
Nov is a panic month!
VIX Volatility only beginningVIX is showing higher lows and has broken above the Brim Level of a Cup and Handle.
This is problematic for a trader as it means a lot more jumpiness is coming.
It's also broken out of its downtrend on both chart and the RSI.
With the inflation rate going up, interest rates soon to go up in November and with more money going to be printed in the economy - this isn't good for the markets in the medium term.
Time to risk less per trade, I'd imagine.
Long Volatility into AugustBy now you all know the drill. Let's start with an initial framework, assess the current environment, and evaluate all below questions.
are we trending or ranging?
- a series of higher highs, higher lows
- sellers structure is broken, we are tracking whether buyers will protect or find it difficult to hold
discount?
- we are tracking the lows for the previous wave block
- Support 20, Pivot 25, Resistance 38
managing trade?
- Trading and assess based on quarters, 00, 25, 50, 75
- Market participation in form of current strength/weakness, when market is weak we are sellers and when strong we are buyers
This position, technically speaking, is very similar to the swing we traded in 2020. Buyers have developed a structure of higher highs, and higher lows, and desire their chance to go over to a direct attack on the highs.
In this case the result is not certain; but since attacking in this fashion is characteristic of a volatility event. There are two lines, assuming the 20 support holds. In the first case, as well we need to track 25, the combinatory breakout of 25 will allow buyers to continue their summer dance with a romantic hue, unlocking 38 for August.
VIX is in C&H patternThis is getting so close for a breakout and big market sell!
There is also smaller C&H if it hits 31 level.
Regardless of a scenario, we are very close to some real move.
I was expecting this move and wanted to see a year low hit end of Oct into early Nov.
It seems its going to play out well.
Question is only one - how low?
$VIX to 33?Falling wedge forming to retest previous resistance. Expecting the zone to swap from resistance to support. Added confluence for this price action would be the trend line starting from August of this year expecting it to hold BUT if it breaks will be looking for it to continue to the downside aka a new trend.
VIX - Volatility about to creep back in the marketIn tandem with our bearish assessment of the stock market, we predict the return of increased volatility in the market. As a result, we would like to set a medium-term price target for VIX at 30 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the weekly chart of VIX.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
VIX - Back to the elevated volatilityOn 3rd August 2022, we set a medium-term price target for VIX at 30 USD. Then a week later, we updated this price target to short-term. Our view derives from the premise that the stock market ceased its bear market rally and will continue to drift lower. Technical indicators indicate intense selling pressure across major U.S. stock market indices over the short term. At the same time, bearish fundamental factors are due to persist for much longer, over the medium and long term. These factors will drive the global economy into a deeper recession toward the end of the year, causing a risk-off sentiment accompanied by elevated volatility. Therefore, we have no reason to change our assessment. Accordingly, we stick to the 30 USD price target.
Illustration 1.01
The picture shows a bullish breakout above the sloping resistance, shortly followed by an opening gap. These developments are very bullish for VIX.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the top of the bear market rally and correlation among U.S. stock market indices.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.