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Vixlong

ridethepig | Vix into the elections and 2021📌  Vix - Volatility An expansion of volatility is coming; the attempt to step against the flow of Covid chapter II is reckless to say the least. According to my models, we have unfinished business to be done at 85 once more. I will continue to hold longs and look to add on dips for example towards 25, or enjoy a momentum gambit when we see the breakup. This idea is very similar to the same struggle we had in Q1. The stratagem of a contraction in globalisation is illustrated via an expansion of volatility . Buyers opened the attack position in a +600% move as capitalism surrendered. Sellers are already on their last legs.
TVC:VIXLong
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | Volatility into the electionsI should like to start with a reminder of the operational plan for the first Covid chapter. 📌 Covid Chapter I The terrain here was clear. My models were picking up on a sweep of the lows in VIX to clear the path for a +600% expansion. In order for us to manoeuvre around this we must understand how large hands move various assets at quite a precise moment. Let's continue to work through this example of the first chapter which will set the scene for our current leg. So the lows were swept in Q419 as expected to prepare the manoeuvres from that point. So the next chart should be considered here as a fortified support with lust to expand. It would only be right and proper for us to describe what comes next as impulsive, a move that was not without reason and certainly not without fear. And finally buyers ran out of steam as we approached the 85 main SWING TARGET . From 85 I was eyeballing a retrace towards 25. Look how easy it is to make use of the expansion. I see this as further proof of the enormous vitality of overprotecting support/resistance. If you 'know' where are the stops, you know hot to make use and expose with an appropriate reply. This was one of my favourite calls. 📌 Covid Chapter II This is clear proof that we are in sync with lockdowns and covid providing the manoeuvres. As we enter into the eye of the storm for the second wave, sentiment is definitively turning softer, although this case is much more complicated. If buyers remain passive above the 44/45 highs then we can see a well-timed massage from stimulus. In other words, we need the moves to happen before the elections and are running out of time. Buyers have developed a considerable appetite, bankruptcies are coming and complacency is repeating itself. We have two possibilities here existing for the terrain in Covid Chapter II. The breakout of the highs in this consolidation block to unlock a re-visit of 85 resistance assuming things go tits up in the coming days/weeks. Sellers of volatility have nothing immediately in play because of covid and contested election risk. The only correctness of the thesis comes from stimulus, which is an expectation now for after the elections. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | Surfing the Vix⚠️ Chapter IV: Vix and microstructure ⚠️ For those following the swings in Vix since 2019 you will know we are tracking for the overprotection from sellers and how to try to get rid of the 'all is back to normal' sentiment. This is a shorter update than the previous three chapters, intentionally aimed at casting some light on how sellers are overshooting support and how risk 'may' appear in the microstructure. So let us start by recapping the swings between the starting point of the expansion which set this all in motion: Capitulation waters clearly represents a manoeuvre which is closely intertwined with microstructure and liquidity game theory and indeed must always be so because of the nature of free markets. Nevertheless, there are traces of overshoots to the downside . For example when sellers went overboard to sweep the lows underneath 12 in attempt of opening the single digit block: Buyers loaded and created a strong basing formation as pointed out in chapter II. In the area where sellers overshot is a strategy you will notice me using often. Play through the charts and notice how minimal drawdown was required at the base ( for which we gave incredible respect ) and because we had to keep in mind the unavoidable possibility of economic cycle inversions. Here is the final example in the recap after we exploded towards the 85 final target as called from 12 (+500% and a historic move in volatility). "VIX Completing the Swing to 85" Intending to meet a possible barrier at 38 and 25, only now does it become clear as to why price stalled at the highs instead of developing a three figure vix print. No matter what happens, this has and will remain three superb chapters of effortless unravelling of the soft retail and unaware institutional money . The spare room to 100 remains open. I think the 'everything is back to normal' crowd are too hasty in this and do not realise the tsunami of bankruptcies and debt on the horizon as we enter into year-end and 2021. Every digit retrace point in the VIX from current levels should be bought aggressively for a position way out to the 85 highs and 100 extensions for an epic news headline. This move should by now be chalked on all charts . As usual thanks all for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
23
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TVC:VIXLong
by contemplatingcrypto
Positive Correlation between S&P500 and VIX In the last few weeks, weird things are happening. We currently have a positive correlation between the S&P 500 and VIX, basically VIX grows with the S&P500 together. I used 20 days correlation, currently it's around 0.8, and it's quite high. Usually, you expect to see it around -1, and it makes sense. For the last few years, the correlation was above 0 only a handful of times nothing good happened after that. Last few cases of positive correlation: Jan 2018, May 2019, Jan 2020. What do you think? Can that we a sign of new correction? Disclaimer Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as good as in historical backtesting. This post and/or the script don’t provide any financial advice.
SP:SPXShort
by QuantNomad
8
Market correction I’m shorting small caps here. VIX is on an uptrend. All indexes/ assets starting to top out momentarily IMO. In combination of the stimulus package fallout and important economic data coming out soon plus a lot of highs being reached across most markets I have turned bearish for the time being. I have opened up a short on small caps as I believe they’ll be hit the hardest in a correction. I also have opened some long VIX calls, will most likely post something on that later. I am using this as a sort of hedge for my crypto portfolio. I am still Bullish long term on crypto’s but we’re due for a correction. This is NOT investment advice. My published ideas are my own opinions. I use them to hold myself accountable and to try and improve upon my investing strategy.
TVC:RUTShort
by MambaTrader24
ridethepig | VIX Slingshot In Play 📌 Working in public has given us a live example of Volatility expanding in times of a crisis. Here it is usually a swing recap for those following. As you will remember we made good use of the initial tempo in the retreat : The show must go on... in came buyers with the counter attack and no surprises on the timing, covid was simply the trigger. To save the overshoots, we cleared all and even covered some at the 85 highs. 📌 When a deep retrace came into play it has created enough energy for a slingshot. Buyers of volatility are quite happy to exchange here at the lows as they are in full control and holding the bid at 🔑 support. Sellers of vol and the 'everything is back to normal crowds' will be condemned to liquidation. This wave 2 attempt at breaching support which has miserably failed today is a visual example of pinning your opponent. The key point is liquidations. Global Equities are complacent, retail have bought as much as they can. Large hands have cleared, since the Covid chapter II irritates them (from a retracement perspective at the very least). And it will comedown to a massacre in VIX... Seriously it is just as well we are seeing the back of VVIX...that really was a monster. 📌 How and Why these slingshots occur in VIX? When major forces on both sides clash together, it comes down to an exchange. In this case the health crisis cannot be solved via the monetary or fiscal side, shutting down the economy has caused long term repercussions. Especially with the elderly and overshoots on dependencies. In simply terms the older demographics will be forced into using savings to support families, businesses will be more defensive with capital, the issue is not solved with stimulus, it is solved with CONFIDENCE . The policy mistakes here are off the charts and may even cost Trump the election. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:VIXLong
by ridethepig
18
VIX ABOUT TO EXPLODE HIGHERElliot wave counts on VIX. It calls for VIX (volatility and fear) to soon explode higher in line with my Elliotwave bearish projections on the S&P Futures (SPX500USD and SPX) and higher calls for the US Dollar Index (DXY). See below links for Elliotwave counts just posted on S&P Futures and US Dollar Index. RIsk OFF is about to enter the markets in a major way. Even though I call for wave C DOWN in the S&P to reach (slightly exceed) the March lows I believe VIX will reach a LOWER High than the March highs as I see the coming wave C down in the S&P to be more orderly and less violent than the Feb and March crash in the S&P. It is notable the VXN DID NOT MAKE A NEW LOW when the NASDAQ 100 has been making higher highs. This is a Major red flag and warning signal that the NASDAQ has gone too far. See link to he VXN and NASDAQ divergence comparison below also. Cheers! Cyrus
CBOE:VIXLong
by cyrusgr8