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Vixlong

ridethepig | Vix into the elections and 2021📌  Vix - Volatility An expansion of volatility is coming; the attempt to step against the flow of Covid chapter II is reckless to say the least. According to my models, we have unfinished business to be done at 85 once more. I will continue to hold longs and look to add on dips for example towards 25, or enjoy a momentum gambit when we see the breakup. This idea is very similar to the same struggle we had in Q1. The stratagem of a contraction in globalisation is illustrated via an expansion of volatility . Buyers opened the attack position in a +600% move as capitalism surrendered. Sellers are already on their last legs.
TVC:VIXLong
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | Volatility into the electionsI should like to start with a reminder of the operational plan for the first Covid chapter. 📌 Covid Chapter I The terrain here was clear. My models were picking up on a sweep of the lows in VIX to clear the path for a +600% expansion. In order for us to manoeuvre around this we must understand how large hands move various assets at quite a precise moment. Let's continue to work through this example of the first chapter which will set the scene for our current leg. So the lows were swept in Q419 as expected to prepare the manoeuvres from that point. So the next chart should be considered here as a fortified support with lust to expand. It would only be right and proper for us to describe what comes next as impulsive, a move that was not without reason and certainly not without fear. And finally buyers ran out of steam as we approached the 85 main SWING TARGET . From 85 I was eyeballing a retrace towards 25. Look how easy it is to make use of the expansion. I see this as further proof of the enormous vitality of overprotecting support/resistance. If you 'know' where are the stops, you know hot to make use and expose with an appropriate reply. This was one of my favourite calls. 📌 Covid Chapter II This is clear proof that we are in sync with lockdowns and covid providing the manoeuvres. As we enter into the eye of the storm for the second wave, sentiment is definitively turning softer, although this case is much more complicated. If buyers remain passive above the 44/45 highs then we can see a well-timed massage from stimulus. In other words, we need the moves to happen before the elections and are running out of time. Buyers have developed a considerable appetite, bankruptcies are coming and complacency is repeating itself. We have two possibilities here existing for the terrain in Covid Chapter II. The breakout of the highs in this consolidation block to unlock a re-visit of 85 resistance assuming things go tits up in the coming days/weeks. Sellers of volatility have nothing immediately in play because of covid and contested election risk. The only correctness of the thesis comes from stimulus, which is an expectation now for after the elections. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | Surfing the Vix⚠️ Chapter IV: Vix and microstructure ⚠️ For those following the swings in Vix since 2019 you will know we are tracking for the overprotection from sellers and how to try to get rid of the 'all is back to normal' sentiment. This is a shorter update than the previous three chapters, intentionally aimed at casting some light on how sellers are overshooting support and how risk 'may' appear in the microstructure. So let us start by recapping the swings between the starting point of the expansion which set this all in motion: Capitulation waters clearly represents a manoeuvre which is closely intertwined with microstructure and liquidity game theory and indeed must always be so because of the nature of free markets. Nevertheless, there are traces of overshoots to the downside . For example when sellers went overboard to sweep the lows underneath 12 in attempt of opening the single digit block: Buyers loaded and created a strong basing formation as pointed out in chapter II. In the area where sellers overshot is a strategy you will notice me using often. Play through the charts and notice how minimal drawdown was required at the base ( for which we gave incredible respect ) and because we had to keep in mind the unavoidable possibility of economic cycle inversions. Here is the final example in the recap after we exploded towards the 85 final target as called from 12 (+500% and a historic move in volatility). "VIX Completing the Swing to 85" Intending to meet a possible barrier at 38 and 25, only now does it become clear as to why price stalled at the highs instead of developing a three figure vix print. No matter what happens, this has and will remain three superb chapters of effortless unravelling of the soft retail and unaware institutional money . The spare room to 100 remains open. I think the 'everything is back to normal' crowd are too hasty in this and do not realise the tsunami of bankruptcies and debt on the horizon as we enter into year-end and 2021. Every digit retrace point in the VIX from current levels should be bought aggressively for a position way out to the 85 highs and 100 extensions for an epic news headline. This move should by now be chalked on all charts . As usual thanks all for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
23
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TVC:VIXLong
by contemplatingcrypto
Vix - don't forget about these key levelsHello, Here we are going to start to see VIX lead the way and direct the Global Equity flows in a turbulent election and coronavirus struggle.. The S&P 500 is becoming volatile signs of indecisiveness. We will see the VIX volatile around 18-24.. this zone is and important gap - which has not been filled. - we have been holding losses .. but now easing to profits. Long term hold Psychological aspect - hold losses on this one - this will be an important hedge. imbalance between buyers and sellers is evident within the indexes. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
TVC:VIXLong
by LupaCapital
SPX500 update The sell off, or correction has begun. Now we are at an interest area now where for the second weekly candle close is bearish. Now to some this is a healthy correction or to others the start of a bearish crash prone to a host of reason which we have explained before. We are continuing to hold short positions - again the long term here is to hold to the low of March and beyond [if price shows us a structure to add positions along the way down. The window of opportunity to sell is between August - November - think of the fundamentals attached - that and a newly tested area below to retest. We must note - in order to be successful here patience is key Risk management on the trade is pivotal and once enough in profit - put stop loss to breakeven. Please see related the ideas for our longterm outlook: We hope you enjoy our content: Please leave your thoughts and analysis to why you agree or not. To our followers, many thanks for the support. Team Lupa.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by LupaCapital
S&P 500 - Megaphone complete, now sellUpdate to our long term S&P analysis. Check the link below: Hello traders and analysts, Here is update to our weekly outlook provided April 24th and July 22 judging by the closeness of our results so far - we are pretty much on track to our prediction. We are already short on this and will hold our sells in conjunctions with longs and close out longs as price hits highs. Do not over leverage and apply risk management if you use our analysis for your own benefit. Technicals: 1. Looking back to 2000, 2008 - the dotcom, financial banking crisis and now 'Covid' - we can see a nice megaphone pattern which has emerged looking back since February 2018. We have completed the the downward impulse of the wave pattern 1-5, with all waves forming without breaking the structure. we are now in the minor wave 2 structure. and next up is the 5 wave corrective structure and looking to complete wave on the trendline . 2. From an imbalance method, we have a good double top retest which is showing profit and greed taking helped on from the Fed and using Fibonacci extension - price can over shoot to create an upper supply zone . Price has seen a bounce back to 'normal priced of demand' however this is not really how halted economies can return so fast. it is artificial. Divergence - we did not use this but looking at the pattern, we have a huge distinguishing gap. However this keeps widening - whilst we do not look at the divergence indicator, it does show a good area for sells - and according to RSI - we are not there yet technically speaking 80 zone is a major sell. 3. Looking at the VIX - the dollar is weakening to a 90-91 lows - however the buying of this at the lows will produce huge rewards. Check out or Vix for long inverse 4. Looking at Russell and SPY has the gap to fill to $340.00 per share , is this sustainable growth which is being propped up - with earnings quarter now in play, we will see those numbers finally provide profit targets either severely missed or the few will beat earnings . Fundamentals: US election rallies before taking place at the end of the year with campaigning - enter volatility state We have NFP numbers showing millions return to work.. but also high unemployment still looming. Trade war with China, Hong Kong unfolding with US responding - constantly.. High figures in multiple states which are concerns for large communities- record numbers still being released Fiscal intervention in July, August for stimulus.. constant printing money is not good for the economy. US tech stocks have seen the highest returns and zero confirmation by Dow30 and S&P following suit. - will this last? no.. billionaires just adding wealth, SME businesses not receiving the correct funding at all.. Dow 30 is in a fragile state and desperate to keep pushing higher but limited upside will cause a steep decline - refer to Dow chart.. around 28,500 is a good point for a previous monthly high but it may fall over at 28000 tops. - this is now being challenged Crippling 1trillion money printing exercise to be released to prop up false growth. enter sovereign debt crisis Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by LupaCapital
Positive Correlation between S&P500 and VIX In the last few weeks, weird things are happening. We currently have a positive correlation between the S&P 500 and VIX, basically VIX grows with the S&P500 together. I used 20 days correlation, currently it's around 0.8, and it's quite high. Usually, you expect to see it around -1, and it makes sense. For the last few years, the correlation was above 0 only a handful of times nothing good happened after that. Last few cases of positive correlation: Jan 2018, May 2019, Jan 2020. What do you think? Can that we a sign of new correction? Disclaimer Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as good as in historical backtesting. This post and/or the script don’t provide any financial advice.
SP:SPXShort
by QuantNomad
8
Market correction I’m shorting small caps here. VIX is on an uptrend. All indexes/ assets starting to top out momentarily IMO. In combination of the stimulus package fallout and important economic data coming out soon plus a lot of highs being reached across most markets I have turned bearish for the time being. I have opened up a short on small caps as I believe they’ll be hit the hardest in a correction. I also have opened some long VIX calls, will most likely post something on that later. I am using this as a sort of hedge for my crypto portfolio. I am still Bullish long term on crypto’s but we’re due for a correction. This is NOT investment advice. My published ideas are my own opinions. I use them to hold myself accountable and to try and improve upon my investing strategy.
TVC:RUTShort
by MambaTrader24
ridethepig | VIX Slingshot In Play 📌 Working in public has given us a live example of Volatility expanding in times of a crisis. Here it is usually a swing recap for those following. As you will remember we made good use of the initial tempo in the retreat : The show must go on... in came buyers with the counter attack and no surprises on the timing, covid was simply the trigger. To save the overshoots, we cleared all and even covered some at the 85 highs. 📌 When a deep retrace came into play it has created enough energy for a slingshot. Buyers of volatility are quite happy to exchange here at the lows as they are in full control and holding the bid at 🔑 support. Sellers of vol and the 'everything is back to normal crowds' will be condemned to liquidation. This wave 2 attempt at breaching support which has miserably failed today is a visual example of pinning your opponent. The key point is liquidations. Global Equities are complacent, retail have bought as much as they can. Large hands have cleared, since the Covid chapter II irritates them (from a retracement perspective at the very least). And it will comedown to a massacre in VIX... Seriously it is just as well we are seeing the back of VVIX...that really was a monster. 📌 How and Why these slingshots occur in VIX? When major forces on both sides clash together, it comes down to an exchange. In this case the health crisis cannot be solved via the monetary or fiscal side, shutting down the economy has caused long term repercussions. Especially with the elderly and overshoots on dependencies. In simply terms the older demographics will be forced into using savings to support families, businesses will be more defensive with capital, the issue is not solved with stimulus, it is solved with CONFIDENCE . The policy mistakes here are off the charts and may even cost Trump the election. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:VIXLong
by ridethepig
18