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Vixlong

VIX ABOUT TO EXPLODE HIGHERElliot wave counts on VIX. It calls for VIX (volatility and fear) to soon explode higher in line with my Elliotwave bearish projections on the S&P Futures (SPX500USD and SPX) and higher calls for the US Dollar Index (DXY). See below links for Elliotwave counts just posted on S&P Futures and US Dollar Index. RIsk OFF is about to enter the markets in a major way. Even though I call for wave C DOWN in the S&P to reach (slightly exceed) the March lows I believe VIX will reach a LOWER High than the March highs as I see the coming wave C down in the S&P to be more orderly and less violent than the Feb and March crash in the S&P. It is notable the VXN DID NOT MAKE A NEW LOW when the NASDAQ 100 has been making higher highs. This is a Major red flag and warning signal that the NASDAQ has gone too far. See link to he VXN and NASDAQ divergence comparison below also. Cheers! Cyrus
CBOE:VIXLong
by cyrusgr8
ridethepig | VIX Panic Cycle?📍 The main function of the VIX appears to be miles ahead of the relevant flows. In this sense, it itself tends to be mobile. And yet (for it has great vitality!) it is not rare to witness it display considerable activity. Namely: 1️⃣ From the initial ' Swing the Vix into Fed and Q close ' the Vix was prepared . 2️⃣ A certain elasticity, which shows itself in the 'Capitulation Waters' was appropriate to generate the energetic slingshot given the appropriate circumstance. 3️⃣ The journey looked so promising, connection breaks in Vol are usually one way express trains. Stay long. 4️⃣ If we can continue the advance in the absence of capitalism, we are set for a measured return on the expectation of normality but only with more clarity on the timing side. Once reality hits shore, the masses will realise they were sold a turd. 5️⃣ The home run!! A flawless (and serious contender for trade of the year btw) 600%+ swing from the 11/12 lows all the way to 85. Now to put the icing and sprinkles on top, we had to take care of business at the 85 highs. 6️⃣ ...here we are. After a round trip we are back to the strong support at 25 and just below the centre of the flow at 38. The power to develop knowingly here and systematically, unlike during the middle of Covid is to the buyers advantage. The effect of the cycle ending will convey more than one quarter's worth of damage. As soon as the stabilisers (stimulus) is turned off, we are heading for a Sovereign Debt Crisis .
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
11
[TVIX] June Price Target Exit Points... You're Gonna Need ThisOk people, things are about ready to boil over here. Everyone is holding their breath and crossing their fingers that all the economic data dropping first week of June 'won't be as bad as expected' so the market will then rebound. It's all hopes and dreams though. It's gonna be worse, decent chance of MUCH worse. If we get to the end of June, and I have to sell off my $150 TVIX at $100 because it was all smooth sailing the whole month. So f*ckin be it. I'll hold my head high and take the L. But I aint missing a play that could pay up to 5x (proven just two months ago) within a couple weeks when fundamentals are the worst in a century and the global economy is running on hopes and dreams lol. What a setup. ---------------------- Today the price hit the lowest we'll see in awhile at $138 and climbed to $144 by close, that's the bottom. I also expect that we move out of the buy zone by June 5th and begin harvest preparations. You're probably reading this after the spike but here's the targets for the few active TVIX riders out there: Buy Targets: >$280 = Do not buy (risk/reward ratio starts looking substantially worse here) $205-$280 = Okay value $180-$205 = Good value $150-$180 = Great value <$150 = You're crazy like me Sell Targets based on Volume Profile of spike two months ago: $390 - Will sell 20% of my shares $600 - Will sell another 20% chunk $750 - Another 20% $920 - Another 20% Best Value - Final 20% trying to catch the peak :) If at any point a peak looks imminent, prior to the estimated peak here, will dump all. Not trying to be a hero here. Lets hope for a bountiful June harvest :).
TLong
by ProfitHarvest
6
[TVIX] SPX New Local High... TVIX Sideways? New Support ChannelsAlright guys another successful day! But wait... SPX set new highs!? AHHH time to meltdown and unload everything! Not exactly. New SPX highs should be followed by new VIX lows and ESPECIALLY 2x TVIX lows in a proper bull market. This has yet to retest May 12th low and is sitting halfway between two major supports and just under the diagonal support and within the middle horizontal support channel. Do notice that we're quickly approaching the yellow resistance line and wedging into a breakout point, which is really just perfect timing here as it aligns with Thursday and I'm anticipating the market will go south Thursday and Friday on release of devastating fundamental news. MACD is teasing the trend change, RVI can be an indicator for RSI (RSI shooting up means price is spiking) and it crossed above RSI on May 27th and has since gained some divergence on the one week time scale here. I guess tomorrow we'll limp to a brand new high with the last Retail FOMO stragglers blowing a bunch of money and hating on us poor data nerd folk before it all comes crashing down. Happy harvesting!
TLong
by ProfitHarvest
17
[TVIX] 2nd Bar Today Kissed Top of Channel + New Support ChannelI guess lets wait for next week and see if I'm right. So far I had expected it to raise a lot higher by now. I think by ramp projection is a week or two early maybe but I still think we've seen the bottom until we cross the red-line at this point. Not much to do but wait. I'm loaded, plenty of room if it spikes to 3200 too. Probably worst case before crash, if somehow people can swing another upwave amidst the shitstorm of economic news dropping next week. Good luck bulls... I say good luck. TVIX is not just a bet on a market crash, but the side hedge is volatility and no way next week will be smooth.
TLong
by ProfitHarvest
12
[TVIX] Indicators and Support Pointing toward BreakoutCheckout that upward support trend from May 12th low. That is particularly interesting given the nature of the TVIX to constantly fall lower. Lookout for ADX crossing the DPO, better the divergence the stronger the trend. Also lookout for RVI crossing and holding just above RSI, could be a leading indicator here of upward movement. Those indicators are really both primed signaling a pretty strong buy right now. MACD still terrifying, it's clear something has to break. I'm betting that the news dropping 1st week of June with ensure that break is downward. I'll be looking to expand my position Thursday and probably get my last bets in Friday before close. Maybe hold till weekend but unlikely we'll need to. Prepare for the harvest!
TLong
by ProfitHarvest
10
[TVIX] 1D, 4H, 1H and 30M All Lined Up for ReferenceMostly reference purposes here. What an epic setup. Buy Signals: 1. RSI flipping from buy to sell on the 1D and 4H and holding closely to the sell dashed line in the 4H or 30M 2. OBV trend change, up or down in the 1D or 4H overall but here the 1H and 30M will give quicker signals of the trend change 3. 1D VPT as RSI flipping from buy to sell and 4h holding close to sell dashed line, 1H should hold to buy dashed line at start of uptrend, 30M should be very volatile crossing both dashed lines back and forth frequently. 4. MACD on the 30 and 1H breaking through zero (We've got 3 beautiful waves in both charts that are still waiting on a fourth due anytime *cough*June*cough*), MACD lines on 1D and 4H primed to break up too 5. POC trending 30M>1H>4H>1D (This ones tricky to dial in properly but that's the idea) There's a lot more there, just some zoomed perspective for all the TVIX riders out there.
TLong
by ProfitHarvest
1
VIX long I usually do not post vix trades... however After some attention was brought to me by traders in my circle.. I have an interesting comparison vix long dated contracts look to be a play uncertainty is in the air... election, virus woes, economic data coming out that is brutal, fed running out of ammo, warren buffet not buying, old large cash sitting out this rally, not wanting to buy the top here... only makes sense we see a spike in volatility and a drop in the broader indices to retest lows or take them out going into 2021 from an expert on vix "Right now you are paying almost 0 carry on the futures, ie. it costs nothing to hold them (VIX = medium term futures). If you hold a VIX ETN, you will have a rolling exposure to the medium term futures always... basically both short term and long term futures cost the same to hold right now (usually long term futures much more expensive). So your exposure will be purely directional from a "cost" standpoint. Short term will be more volatile, medium term less volatile. But have to pay attention to the curve in case that dynamic changes." enjoy... good luck to all traders
TVC:SPXLong
by Freshly_Snipes
ridethepig | VIX Positional PlayLet me begin by congratulating all shorts from the 85 highs , perfect timing in another flawless VIX swing traded live together...btw that is now sharing its significant anniversary moves with a historic crash in Global Equities. Mission accomplished! Sellers of Vol can now really consider themselves as an integral player caught in decent profit taking areas which also happen to be the middle of a WIDE range and to put the cherry on top, buyers of Volatility are still under further protection from the virus impact.... it's time to pay attention. As you look at it be sure to notice how the inner strength which belonging to those who bought the initial breakout, failed immediately on the 85 target as expected. We could go on to consider many points which are worth considering, but for the sake of today's example we are going to look at the bullish cash here. Before we turn to the next strategy, we must sum things up: Volatility Cycles you see, project a point in defensive or attacking behaviour as they expect strategic advances of capital flows. It always comes down to the same situation: any swing complex which could be called sound, must always take in the brutal component of Volatility. It is the centrepiece for measuring confidence...and the return to 'normal' life after covid-19 (whatever that means) is all down to confidence. How fast the consumer comes back and managing these expectations is the one to track and it boils down to whether people have the confidence to return to hotels, travel, shops, bars, restaurants etc. The great charter we have traded together so far has played a vital part in predicting decisions and the economic cycle down. Now it is no surprise...It was an essential ingredient for the insane moves I forecast right on time in Unemployment claims. Economists are the unsung heroes of the financial world and their role as academics will only be recognised by politicians by the time it is too late. Selecting important movers and shakers, preparing flows and insuring facts and history align and summarising the strategy precisely all require expertise, intelligence, care and effort. The moment one starts the think about it, one realises how great an impact economic strategy must have on the development of finance. The VIX is in a position of being able to bring together its own herd of early sellers - those betting on the virus to be a one and done quick bounce, then everything is neatly protected again and the shepherd can turn to other matters with a clear mind. No...the stupid sheep will run away from the shepherd - watch-out for the flock, smells to me like the virus ending has one final manoeuvre and a sweep of 100 for a blockbuster headline would be an easily won ending. Remember, the necessity for sellers to clear shorts from the 85 highs is both strategic and planned! We are entering into key value support. This case for a fresh high in VIX would coincide with a fresh low in Global Equities, another round of demand for USD on the G10 FX board (see related ideas below)....it opens many doors, correct handling of the strategy indicates an extremely difficult few weeks ahead and requires exact knowledge of how to play the advance. So I must leave you, dear reader to your own devices, and hope that fate is kind to you. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
TVC:VIXLong
by ridethepig
13