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ridethepig | VIX Slingshot In Play 📌 Working in public has given us a live example of Volatility expanding in times of a crisis. Here it is usually a swing recap for those following. As you will remember we made good use of the initial tempo in the retreat : The show must go on... in came buyers with the counter attack and no surprises on the timing, covid was simply the trigger. To save the overshoots, we cleared all and even covered some at the 85 highs. 📌 When a deep retrace came into play it has created enough energy for a slingshot. Buyers of volatility are quite happy to exchange here at the lows as they are in full control and holding the bid at 🔑 support. Sellers of vol and the 'everything is back to normal crowds' will be condemned to liquidation. This wave 2 attempt at breaching support which has miserably failed today is a visual example of pinning your opponent. The key point is liquidations. Global Equities are complacent, retail have bought as much as they can. Large hands have cleared, since the Covid chapter II irritates them (from a retracement perspective at the very least). And it will comedown to a massacre in VIX... Seriously it is just as well we are seeing the back of VVIX...that really was a monster. 📌 How and Why these slingshots occur in VIX? When major forces on both sides clash together, it comes down to an exchange. In this case the health crisis cannot be solved via the monetary or fiscal side, shutting down the economy has caused long term repercussions. Especially with the elderly and overshoots on dependencies. In simply terms the older demographics will be forced into using savings to support families, businesses will be more defensive with capital, the issue is not solved with stimulus, it is solved with CONFIDENCE . The policy mistakes here are off the charts and may even cost Trump the election. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Editors' picks
TVC:VIXLong
by ridethepig
18
ridethepig | VIX Positional PlayLet me begin by congratulating all shorts from the 85 highs , perfect timing in another flawless VIX swing traded live together...btw that is now sharing its significant anniversary moves with a historic crash in Global Equities. Mission accomplished! Sellers of Vol can now really consider themselves as an integral player caught in decent profit taking areas which also happen to be the middle of a WIDE range and to put the cherry on top, buyers of Volatility are still under further protection from the virus impact.... it's time to pay attention. As you look at it be sure to notice how the inner strength which belonging to those who bought the initial breakout, failed immediately on the 85 target as expected. We could go on to consider many points which are worth considering, but for the sake of today's example we are going to look at the bullish cash here. Before we turn to the next strategy, we must sum things up: Volatility Cycles you see, project a point in defensive or attacking behaviour as they expect strategic advances of capital flows. It always comes down to the same situation: any swing complex which could be called sound, must always take in the brutal component of Volatility. It is the centrepiece for measuring confidence...and the return to 'normal' life after covid-19 (whatever that means) is all down to confidence. How fast the consumer comes back and managing these expectations is the one to track and it boils down to whether people have the confidence to return to hotels, travel, shops, bars, restaurants etc. The great charter we have traded together so far has played a vital part in predicting decisions and the economic cycle down. Now it is no surprise...It was an essential ingredient for the insane moves I forecast right on time in Unemployment claims. Economists are the unsung heroes of the financial world and their role as academics will only be recognised by politicians by the time it is too late. Selecting important movers and shakers, preparing flows and insuring facts and history align and summarising the strategy precisely all require expertise, intelligence, care and effort. The moment one starts the think about it, one realises how great an impact economic strategy must have on the development of finance. The VIX is in a position of being able to bring together its own herd of early sellers - those betting on the virus to be a one and done quick bounce, then everything is neatly protected again and the shepherd can turn to other matters with a clear mind. No...the stupid sheep will run away from the shepherd - watch-out for the flock, smells to me like the virus ending has one final manoeuvre and a sweep of 100 for a blockbuster headline would be an easily won ending. Remember, the necessity for sellers to clear shorts from the 85 highs is both strategic and planned! We are entering into key value support. This case for a fresh high in VIX would coincide with a fresh low in Global Equities, another round of demand for USD on the G10 FX board (see related ideas below)....it opens many doors, correct handling of the strategy indicates an extremely difficult few weeks ahead and requires exact knowledge of how to play the advance. So I must leave you, dear reader to your own devices, and hope that fate is kind to you. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
TVC:VIXLong
by ridethepig
13
ridethepig | VIX Completing the Swing to 85!!A Vix swing, which did not require "majority" or "consensus", rolled forward under the noses of retail and even some of the larger macro hands. It advanced incredibly far reaching a high of 84.8 ... Don't be a dick for a tick !!! Finally there is an opportunity to clear all targets in the breakthrough. As an example of this, let us turn to the well-know chart VIX - Capitulation Waters. There followed the initial 38 target and 85 extension. The attack was carried out with sufficient substance via Covid-19, if the panic subsides or is reaching a "peak" then Vol must fight for places to make a stand. So the natural indications are 38 and 25 (now that sellers can advance once more). Until this excellent swing was played, the closing of the highs was more of an ideal than reality... Coronavirus turned this ideal into the said reality. This corresponds to the process I have remarked on, that the notional restraint of price gives way to an information block. So much for the strategic and theoretical manoeuvre, the practicality of VIX at these levels creates two new inevitabilities: (1) ... Recession (2) ... Consumer Confidence reaching decade highs Here I would like to point out that, selling VIX remains the correct strategic plan; you can see why in the note in Gold's move. Buyers forsakes the main plan - and tries once more to get in the 1700 highs; but only manages to do so because sellers failed to spot a subtle resource . Naturally in VIX it is pragmatic to aim for 38 and 25 driving Vol buyers all the way back, but one must not go so far as to subordinate the strategically necessary plan to the idea of recessionary effect. As a whole, the classical weakness for art! Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comments, charts and etc coming! I hope it has helped, finally time to unwind a flawless +500% swing to the topside from Q419. Well done all those that caught the move!
CBOE:VIXShort
by ridethepig
23
The creeping VIX-just what the fed orderedSlow & boring-just what the fed ordered (or printed). Our manufacturing data may be in the dumps but we're sure good at manufacturing lies and artificial markets. Volatility coiling up-watch for possible wave to (D) before retracement/sideways movement to (E). I want a solid test of upper trend line-Vix could blow through the roof or coil up for months until after apex of this triangle. For now, they're keeping a tight lid on this.. The circus is in town and we're all in it. (renko blocks not playable from tradingview ideas window - I'll update this idea by posting snapshots as price moves along or when I feel something significant is happening)
TVC:VIXLong
by gghsusa
2
VIXY / TVIX - Weekly View Confirms Bullish Flip ComingWeekly view on VIXY/TVIX confirms the trend should be flipping to Bullish by next week. Weekly RSI trend has just broken to the upside. Recently broke out of the shoe/banana pattern. VIXY has followed this pattern for years, so I feel this is strong. Everything is lining up to next week sometime we should see SPY go down and VIXY/TVIX go up. EXITS -At pink line around $19 -If Daily RSI gets to 70 or higher If we don't get a bullish trend by next week on VIXY, I am wrong. For Daily view posted yesterday see chart below. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, and VIXY. Short SPY, AAPL
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
10
VIXY / TVIX - Going Higher - Keep On Your Toes HereVIXY/TVIX showing a Buy Signal on the Daily yesterday. Yellow bull flag formation (kind of sloppy but its there). Price currently broke out bullishly. 10WeekMA is reaching out farther by the day to reach price. Rate is currently $1 per day closer to price (which is fast). If we cross 10WeekMA, price should continue higher. Based on current rate, 10WeekMA should reach price in less than 1 week if we don't pullback. Based on the action in VIXY, I feel that SPY/SPX has possibility to continue lower into Xmas. Exits -Pink wedge top around $19ish -First gap fill around $14. May pause. -Second gap fill around $18. -Last gap fill around $20. RSI trend should be watched closely for exiting trade or possible reversal. VIXY/TVIX moves fast so keep on your toes if you want to keep those profits (or set your sell orders/stop losses). Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, and VIXY. Short SPY, AAPL.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
5
VIXY - Up Gaps to Fill & Pattern End Suggest Upcoming TurmoilNote - When dealing with VIXY and other VIX derivatives, keep in mind these are "volatility" plays. This means using risk management, stop losses, and price alerts IS A MUST. VIXY and VIX related derivatives look to have some excellent short-term and long-term potential. This also confirms for me the SPY downturn coming. In the past, VIXY has closed all gaps with the exception of 2 recent price gaps and 4 other gaps going back to June 2016. As the gaps are not too far back in time, the price is irrelevant to whether the gaps can be filled in my opinion. If we are close enough, meaning a few years (maybe even a decade) things can flip and gaps get filled. Short Term Repeating banana pattern is ending in days. By 12/1 we should see some kind of issue or spike in VIXY. Two recent gaps up are easy to fill, up to $20. We should hit the pink top resistance, and go back down (allowing for entry to short, but puts, or call credit spread possibly). Long Term Pink main wedge is coming to an end around April 2020. Bond yield curve inversion happened August 2019. Around 8 months. Coincidence? We have EPIC gaps to fill above. I could be wrong, but this could also fulfill 10X potential. Stock is $14 with gaps to fill up to $200. At this level, this is extremely cheap insurance if market goes down. If I were to buy the stock, I would set stop loss limits or be willing to dollar-cost-average into the stock from here, and willing to hold for 1 year or more. If I were to use options, I would play the reversal points of bottom (now) and top ( in a few weeks or less). Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
14
VIXY - BULLISH - Making Turn TodayWatching SPY and VIXY recently and the inverse relationship between them. VIXY is at all time lows, RSI bottomed out. SPY is at all time highs, RSI topped out. Perfect time to do a Bullish Put Credit Spread on VIXY - collect the premium. $340 risk, $2500 reward. Then buy SPY put 30 days out. $485 risk, unlimited payout (but realistically $775-$1500) We should see VIXY and the VIX related derivatives bullish through December. The charts are overly suppressed for long periods of time. If price is like a beach ball held under water, the longer its held down and deeper....the stronger the rebound towards the surface. I will update this chart for as long as I am in the position. What is a vertical credit spread? It's what insurance companies do - collect a premium, and if sh*t doesn't happen they keep it. If it does, they pay you with your own money. www.youtube.com Previous Charts Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
2
VIXY - Reversal Area - Bannana/Shoe PatternI have heard this pattern be called a "shoe" or a "bannana". Downward straight trendline with curved supporting line (more than 3 points of contact). Pattern repeats in VIXY chart as seen. Bullish reversal is short 7-10 days. We are currently in the bottom of the bannana, ready to breakout. RSI shows wedge pattern as well, indicating breakout in RSI. We are close to all time low RSI. I was able to use a bullish Put Credit Spread here for 5 contracts 12/20/2019 14/19 spread ($3.83 each) and take an upfront credit of $1925 for $575 risk. IV is over 60 for both put options in the spread. Theta works positively for us here and we should see VIXY spike during Christmas. This trade has over 70% probability of success based on the numbers. Please see the videos below and do your own research. For excellent free training on options (Options Industry Council) www.optionseducation.org How Theta works positively for us as sellers - www.youtube.com Bullish Put Credit Spread - www.youtube.com Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY and short AAPL.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
VIXY - Bullish Uptrend VIXY, VIXX, TVIX All looking to make the turn higher. Using the VIXY chart (all charts are almost identical except price), we see Bullish EMA Cross incoming. If we close above the 1HR Gaussian Channel, we turn Bullish / Green and continue higher for sure. Updates daily on VIXY until we reach target or pattern breaks down. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY and short SPY.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns