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VIXY

VIX soars after hitting levels unseen since November 2019After returning to a level unseen since November 2019, the Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX) soared nearly 30% within a matter of seven days. In the process, it broke above the resistance indicated by the lower bound of the fan pattern that we have been observing since late December 2023. On top of that, yesterday, VIX formed an opening gap, and today another one. Illustration 1.01 Above is the daily graph of the Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX). The yellow arrow indicates a breakout through the lower bound of the fan pattern, acting previously as resistance and now as support. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIX
by Tradersweekly
2
VIX back to $20?With economists celebrating the "goldilocks economy" and VIX breaking below the lower bound of the pattern, the big question lingers: "Is this another fakeout before resurgence to $20?" Illustration 1.01 The yellow arrow indicates a breakout below the lower bound of the pattern we have been observing since its early formation. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
6
Volatility will be put to the test this weekWhile volatility pulled back following a spike earlier this month, this week will put it back to the test with the FOMC meeting (on Tuesday and Wednesday) and economic releases throughout the week, including S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTs job openings, S&P Global Composite PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, ISM Services PMI, nonfarm payrolls, participation rate, and unemployment rate. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
VIX is getting ready to roll The VIX failed to close the opening gap it formed yesterday, which is slightly concerning news (especially if also considering an ongoing bloodbath in the Asian market and the potential spillover effect into Western equity markets). As a result, we are closely monitoring the resistance at $14.49; a breakout above it will bolster the bullish case for the VIX, while the gap's closing will suggest otherwise. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
9
VIX is showing signs of awakeningAs the stock market is beginning to manifest weakness, we are paying close attention to the VIX, which is starting to exhibit signs of awakening. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
The odds of another spike in the VIX are growingOn Friday, the Volatility S&P 500 Index reached new lows unseen since January 2020. What is intriguing about this situation is that new lows in the value of the VIX tended to be followed by a subsequent spike in the index and weakness in the U.S. stock market (over the past year or so). Considering that the recovery of the Chinese stock market is starting to show signs of stagnation, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index moving increasingly sideways, we are again on high alert. The odds of stock market reversal and spike in the VIX are growing. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of the Shanghai Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and S&P 500 Index. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for an individual investor to take any trade action. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
2
$SPX analysis short & longer termCBOE:SPX chart is quite INTERESTING. We can see the obvious short term downtrend. We're currently at the bottom part of the GAP. Volume has been a lil lighter, holiday is likely the reason. RSI broke the downtrend it was in Maintained the longer term 2022 low up trend. Can AMEX:SPY reach the top part of the current downtrend? AMEX:SPXS AMEX:SPXL ------- Weekly CBOE:SPX Trading under the red moving avgerage. Still looks similar to 2022. Monthly AMEX:SPY MACD & RSI bounce do not look very strong from 9/22 lows. Does look like a lil bit like a cup & handle formation, interesting. Time will tell if that is what is forming/formed. TVC:VIX not showing much on the Monthly charts. Weekly MACD & RSI is showing some strength.
SP:SPX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Opening gap not retraced yetOne thing we would like to point out is yesterday's opening gap in the Volatility S&P 500 Index. A failure of the price to fill the gap risks rekindling the volatility in the short-term future. As such, it is something we are paying attention to. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
10
VIX - The 72-Handle PreludeI will reiterate again, as I have in my past posts, notably: Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal That if you are bullish on US equities into the future and want to see a healthy economy into '24 and '25, you DO NOT want to see a new all time high to be set yet. Instead, you want a correction. A major correction is just that: a correction. A correction gives a number of elements an opportunity to rebalance and reload so that a new phase of markup, and thus profits for longs, can unfold. The VIX controls a lot of things, namely the price of options. Really, what this means for most people is it controls the price of "protection," i.e. puts. And since the VIX is now trading at a low not seen since June of '21 and in an area of accumulation that spanned 3 years between '18 and '20, if you think a new all time high on equities is coming, you're actually saying that VIX is going to trade to 5. And you may very well be right. It's a very difficult situation. However, net liquidity is coming out of the system, and the indexes and equities rallied from mid-June to mid-August of last year. The algorithm rarely runs the same pattern at the same time twice. Moreover, there's a lot of problems brewing in this world with the War in Ukraine connected to Vladimir Putin and the situation in mainland China with Xi Jinping still at the helm of the notorious and unforgivable Chinese Communist Party. There are handles a major arranged correction in the markets are not going to print on VIX. 1. VIX will not print GFC highs 2. VIX will not print the millennial-titled "Coronavirus Disease 2019" highs 3. VIX will not print 50-handles Instead, VIX, in my opinion, will print a 72-handle. One of the truths in the market place is the easiest and most consistent money is not only that the market goes up, but selling volatility after the dust on periodical propaganda has settled is free money. A free money train always continues and you're never a part of it because you're trying to long MULN and Bed Bloodbath and Beyond for a MOASS. So, let's take a look at the ETFs. There are some notable pieces of evidence in the price action that show something ought to change, and quickly. The first is in the SVXY inverse VIX ETF, which has taken out the pre-COVID high, and by a lot. LT short seller funds: they dead. But a more notable case is that of the UVIX 2x leveraged bull ETF It was 5:1 reverse split to start the year, had one bounce during the bank collapse hysteria, and then lost 80% of its value. UVIX trades under $1 pre-split. You're looking for a MOASS on shitcoins, but here's a real opportunity. Notable is also that HUV, the Toronto Stock Exchange VIX (non-levered bull) ETF, is in a similar boat. It 6:1 reverse split in February, had one bounce, and lost half its value, trading to barely over $3 pre-split. You can care about Canada because there are arbitrage opportunities with the USDCAD currency pair and because our holidays and your holidays are not the same, like "Juneteenth," and so there is opportunity in manipulation. What I can say is that there's an argument, if nothing else, to long volatility in extreme situations as a way of defending your long positions. People are willing to allocate 40 percent of their portfolio to bonds that just don't go up when the market pumps and don't go up when the market goes down. So why not hedge with volatility? That being said, if Nasdaq goes to 9,000 points, are you really willing to hold your $400 NVDIA? Humans never believe in what they don't see. They only believe after they've been shown, and then it's too late. What I truly hope for everyone who has a kind heart is not only that you can preserve your money through the chaos and manipulation, but walk out of the machinations stronger, better, healthier, and with a bright future. For this, and only this, is what you have waited for.
TVC:VIXLong
by LordWrymouth
4
VIX is back to the pre-2020 market crash levelsIn early June 2023, we noted that VIX reached levels that preceded the 2022 market meltdown. After that, the index continued lower and advanced toward levels unseen since January 2020 (levels that preceded the 2020 market crash). The current low value of VIX reflects extremely high complacency in the market and the growing dismissal of any economic downturn on the horizon. With many people already thinking that recession is averted and the market is poised to continue only up, we wonder whether the time for contrarian play is slowly approaching us. As a result, we will monitor the market very closely and look for signs that will prompt us to action. We will update our thoughts on the subject with the emergence of new significant developments. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
4
VIX is back to the 2021 level that preceeded market meltdownVIX fell below $16 after trying to take hold of $20 last week. The current value of VIX coincides with that, which it contained in November 2021, just before the market meltdown began. Taking into consideration that interest rates are nothing like they were in 2021 and the rally in stocks has been thus far driven mainly by a handful of companies, we are growing increasingly worried about the complacency present in the market. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
8
VIXY ready higher, in the silence of the running of the bullsVIXY is poised for a run now. Chyna inflation going to spike ours, and FED is watching they are fully aware. They may think they have a handle on US CPI but not Chyna's. And Japan still easing against the tide of others, just asking begging for more inflation there. While third world country's currencies failing, indicating huge inflation. And we print false numbers so the MSM can spread the better than reality news.... I could go on but the obvious will never become that to those dedicated and addicted to lies...
AMEX:VIXYLong
by claydoctor
VIX is dangerously lowThe Volatility S&P 500 Index rose slightly today, following a short period with a relatively low value. As is displayed on the chart, within the past year, these moments often coincided with tops in SPX and preceded times of increased volatility with significant selling pressure. Therefore, we will monitor this metric closely in the following days. *The orange line represents SPX. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
12
Opening gap, and VIX rising more than 9%We want to hint at the opening gap in the Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX), potentially foreshadowing big moves in the market. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
13
VIX - The recent high to be taken out soonThe volatility index, VIX, has spiked again, with the market marking new lows for the year. With these grim developments, we continue to be bullish on the index and expect it to reach our short-term price target of 35 USD soon. As if it was not enough, we expect VIX to continue higher over time. Therefore, we want to set a medium-term price target for VIX at 37 USD. Our preceding articles are attached to this idea. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
24
VIX - Will the FED spark another rally in the volatility index?On 18th October 2022, we warned investors that our short-term price target of 35 USD would be pushed further into the future if the market rallied until the FED meeting. Now, we are growing increasingly bullish on the index and expect it to return above 30 USD and then continue toward our short-term and medium-term price targets. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
18
VIX - A strong warning to inexperienced investors! In September 2022, we warned investors about the volatility creeping back into the market and set price targets of 30 USD and 35 USD. Subsequently, in the following days after our warning, VIX skyrocketed, hit our price target of 30 USD, and halted its rise at 34.88 USD. Despite the index halting its climb merely 0.12 USD below our price target, we remain very bullish. Indeed, we still expect our short-term price target of 35 USD to be reached within days or weeks. However, we believe that VIX will not stop there but will continue higher, increasing the odds of a market crash. In our opinion, once VIX breaks above the range shown in the title picture, the market volatility conditions will start to resemble the market crash in 2020. That would align with what we outlined about the general stock market progressing into the second stage of the bear market, which will be confirmed by declining corporate earnings over time. As a result, we expect trading conditions to become substantially more challenging; therefore, we voice a word of caution to inexperienced and lay traders. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of VIX and two trendlines highlighting the uptrend. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of the Nasdaq continuous futures, which have declined more than 30%. Additionally, the graph shows other major U.S. indices, all in the bear market territory. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
24
VIX - Volatility is likely to continue higher In tandem with our expectations, VIX reached our short-term price target of 30 USD during the FED meeting, constituting a new high. This development hints at a deepening bear market, which foreshadows a more significant spike in volatility over the coming months. We draw this conclusion from a combination of factors. These include fundamental factors on the level of central banks, like higher interest rates and quantitative tightening, and technical factors associated with major stock market indices, all pointing to more weakness ahead. Due to that, we have no reason to change our bullish bias on the volatility index. Accordingly, we stick to our price target of 35 USD; however, we would like to change it from a medium-term price target to a short-term price target. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
14
VIX - Volatility about to creep back in the marketIn tandem with our bearish assessment of the stock market, we predict the return of increased volatility in the market. As a result, we would like to set a medium-term price target for VIX at 30 USD. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the weekly chart of VIX. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
29