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VIXY

VIX - Volatility is skyrocketingIn early August 2022, we warned that volatility would creep back into the market. Not long enough after that, the market started to sell off, and VIX skyrocketed from 20 USD to over 27 USD. Therefore, we stick to our short-term price target of 30 USD for VIX. However, we want to set a new medium-term price target at 35 USD. Illustration 1.01 The chart shows a bullish breakout above the resistance and two opening gaps on VIX. All of these developments are immensely bullish for VIX. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
26
VIX - The market weakness will lead to higher volatility The market volatility is on the rise, with VIX rising over 30% since 12th August 2022. We continue to be bullish on the index as we forecast more pain for the stock market. Our view is based upon fundamental factors. Because of that, we will pay close attention to the upcoming FED meeting. Accordingly, we maintain a short-term price target for VIX at 30 USD and a medium-term price target at 35 USD. Illustration 1.01 Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
10
VIX - LongWe continue to be bearish on the general stock market and, therefore, bullish on the VIX. Accordingly, we stick to our short-term price target of 30 USD and a medium-term price target of 35 USD. We will pay close attention to the FED meeting on Wednesday as we expect the volatility index to rise further after the meeting. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
19
VIXY Bearish inclined Naked Calls 17 June Expiry Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought For some reason the VXX options contracts seems to require a lot of Margin/BP to develop a decent premium. As such I decided to look at other VIX related ETFs and found VIXY well priced and from my research has a closer correlation with the VIX Over the past year of trading options i’ve come to realised that I’m really trading volatility in the different sectors. This trade is my hedge trade and while I believe we are in a bearish situation now, I believe we will be ranging at least for the time being. Hence I am somewhat not directional with VIXY Risk Mitigation I have two S&R points for this trade with the key S&R 1 at 26.64. This will be my guard rails and reaction points for risk mitigation I Feel I feel comfortable on this trade, I’m somewhat still feeling the effects of last month. But I cannot let that influence me Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side This is a possibility given that I am not directional but I could only mark one S&R point Look For New Information By selling Calls, I am accepting that there won’t be a steep reversal How Do I Feel Now Clear on why I have taken this trade Trade Specs Sold 255 Calls @ 0.27 - Strike 27 46.26% to Strike BP Used 85K Max Gain $6630
AMEX:VIXYLong
by Ronin_trader
VIX - Volatility is set to skyrocketWith the FOMC only a week away, the volatility index is set to rise again. Our conclusion is based upon the premise that the upcoming rate hike will negatively impact the U.S. economy, which already started to manifest a return of selling pressure. In our opinion, this marks the resumption of the downtrend. We expect the selloff to accelerate in the coming weeks. Therefore, our short-term price target for VIX stays at 35 USD. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
14
VIX - An opening gap forecasts more pain for the stock marketIn the past week, the market saw a decrease in volatility , which accompanied the relief rally in the stock market. However, just recently, we stated that we expect the rally to be shortlived and to reverse its direction to the downside. We continue to hold this notion also nowadays; indeed, we expect an eventual breakdown in the stock market and new lows to be formed on QQQ , SPX , and the majority of the U.S. indices . Accordingly, we expect this process to be accompanied by another increase in volatility . Therefore, we would like to set a short-term price target for VIX at 30 USD, and a medium-term price target at 35 USD. Our views are supported by tightening economic conditions as well as bearish technical indicators pointing to the more downside in the stock market. Illustration 1.01 The picture shows QQQ on the daily chart . Two parallel white dashed lines constitute a downward moving channel, which is a bearish structure. The recent breakout below the structure indicates a very strong bearish trend of a higher degree. The sloped white dashed line acts as a resistance; on Nasdaq 100 continuous futures , the price is much closer to resistance. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the Nasdaq 100 continuous futures on the hourly chart. The yellow arrow pinpoints a perfect bull trap we outlined in our idea on QQQ . Illustration 1.03 The SPX shows a bearish resemblance with the Nasdaq 100 index . Illustration 1.04 The picture above shows a negative correlation between VIX and SPX, and Nasdaq. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
4
$VIX to Key Levels, Analysis & targets$VIX to 43 I honestly think that I have charting issues… is this just sexy or what??? Let’s see what happens… GL let me know your thoughts. —————— I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence. I have a huge tolerance for volatility so please know that. If you’re new to my trade setups please try them on a small scale first. Then go in with a risk you’re comfortable with. I am not a bull. I am not a bear. I just see what I see in the charts and I don’t pay too much attention to the noise in the news. If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can. (If I have time) And most importantly… Have fun, y’all!! (\_/) ( •_•) / >🚀
TVC:VIXLong
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
3
Keep your cool - I am keeping distance ATMHi folks! The market seems untradeable right now imo - we are in no mans land in terms of technicals (trends, horisontal support/resistance, MACD/RSI etc.) I still believe we will go way further down in the long term, and we have a lot of both immediate and longer term risks in the market. However, a crash/big correction almost always happen over a very long time with a lot of counter-trend rallies - thus, I will only make very short term long-trades when the market is in panic mode and short-trades (through the VIX) if we see extended rallies. My take is thus that the best action is to stay out right now if you are either a long term investor or a medium-term trader - The fewer trades you make and the mote patience your have in a volatile market, the better. DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well :)
AMEX:SPY
by TheDots
2
Complacency/Denial - market does not expect volatility ahead.Hi folks! Just a short take on the VIX: During the last weeks, we have seen some volatility, but the VIX has barely moved (in VIX-scale, that is). This is not a good sign for the market - as the market usually do the unexpected thing. The Fear and Gread index is also neutral, so the market is not afraid at all of a further dump. Every single period of volatility we have seen since the covid lows has had a bottom at a big and rapid VIX spike (25+), so I really do not think we are done with this correction in the S&P500. For the record, I do NOT close my VIX futures (through VIXY) today unless we go above 25 - I will close apx. half then (According to Kelly). DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well :)
TVC:VIX
by TheDots
6
Market feels untradeable ATM - keep your cool.Hi folks! The market just feels untradeable at the moment - there has been significant correlation between BTCUSDT and the stock market in the last couple of months, and that generally holds in periods of fear. Now, the stock market itself seems untradeable ATM (although the overall picture seems bearish): - Intraday Bounce in american stocks during friday. - Mixed stock indexes in Asia tonight. - European stocks slightly in green overall. - U.S. market closed today. Now, I think Bitcoin is technically bullish on, but there has been very little momentum on the bounce although "everything" signalled a big reversal from around 40k. However, we now seem to be in a symmetrical triangle (indecision), so I would hold off until the american markets (or at least the american futures market) opens/ the triangle breaks to either side with confirmation on retest. All eyes are on the US10Y these days - as long as the yield keeps increasing, risk assets will be bought up to a certain point - where "everyone" would want to buy bonds. DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well!
by TheDots
SPY H&S & at short-term trend support - Be careful.Hi folks! As you all know the fundamentals behind the stock market rally is not great - and it is driven by one thing and one thing only: All time low real interest rates (U.S. CPI - US10y is almost 5.5 percentage points - that is insane!). Since the market has kept on going far longer than I expected, I have turned much more into T.A. in the last couple of months. Right now, there are a lot of technicals signs warning about a correction imo: - The massive wedge broke in September and was retested with rejection in November. - We have a massive bearish divergence on both the 1D and the 1W - where the latter has historically signalled very large corrections. - A Head and Shoulder pattern has formed - both it you count from the september and the the november tops (they were double tops). - The S&P500 is now exactly at the support line since the september lows. - The VIX is way too low according to the correction we have seen - which signals complacency. As I have stated earlier, I have jumped ship a long time ago and only trade the VIX these days - However, I do not recommend this to anyone. DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well :)
AMEX:SPYShort
by TheDots
Pullback stronger than I expected - wait for big support?Hi folks! As I stated in my last two posts about BTCUSDT (see linked), I bought at the long-term trend line (purple), as we saw buy signals in the MACD, RSI (not shown), Bollinger and the Money Flow Index. However, the volume was still very low on the bounce and the pullback larger than expected - in addition to the apparent bull trap in the stock indexes worldwide in the last couple of days. Thus, I am waiting for to se what is happening on the trend lines - if the red one breaks, I will be shorting, but I will buy in the case of a bounce at both the purple and the red - which was both well well respected on monday. For the record, I am still very bearish on stocks, and I believe that a potential correction/crash here will affect Bitcoin as well. DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well.
by TheDots
What a waste of capital - A market in denialHi folks! I really think that the bullish trend is broken and that the market will soon realize that the pricing is built on easy money and Bigger Fool bets very soon - tight movie theatre door etc etc. The end of a market cycle is always a fool's game - the smart money is gone and only those in denial are left trading for the great honor of holding the bags. I believe that is exactly what is going on in the moment: The only actors left are those believing they can always find a bigger fool to sell to. Mainstream financial media makes money by keeping market sentiment bullish, so they provide a medium for - Asset managers, who make money by keeping market sentiment bullish - Banks, who make money by keeping market sentiment bullish - Exchanges, who make money by keeping market sentiment bullish - Financial advisors, who make money by keeping market sentiment bullish = > Bubbles pop way before we see it in mainstream media and market price. My opinion is that one should either stay out right now - or make bets to the downside if have the stomach for it. I personally trade the VIX, but I would not recommend this to most! DYOR. NFA. I wish you al well!
AMEX:SPY
by TheDots
2
"You cannot T.A. the VIX"Hi folks! There is a saying that you cannot T.A. the VIX - as it is not directly tradeable and is derived from a complex computation based on short term options premiums of the S&P500. However, the VIX also is an estimate of the expected short term volatility in the market (i.e. in the next 30 days), and by definition should be significantly correlated with realised volatility. Thus, there are some measures you can take to try predicting market moves: The Bollinger bands explicitly aims to model the short term realised volatility and the fact that periods of VERY low volatility often preceded periods of high volatility. In my opinion, it makes perfect sense to analyse the VIX in terms of Bollinger Bands - on the 4h, which I usually use to trade both the VIX and the SPY in general. I want to test a hypothesis that a very tight BB gap often leads to relatively large VIX spikes. I also tried to combine it with the MACD indicator to see if we could find an even stronger buy signal, and here are my result based on my extremely brief study: - A very tight BB gap "always" leads to a relatively large VIX spike. - If you find a divergence in the MACD at the same time, the signal is even stronger (although the tight BB in itself seems to be the most important signal). I did only include a chart since the covid-correction until now, as the findings are hard to vizualise over longer time frames. In my humble opinion, it is absolutely time to buy the VIX now (although it may continue further down, it does not make a huge difference unless you have a tight SL/very short duration of your contracts). DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well :)
TVC:VIXLong
by TheDots
4