Bump in the Night - VXX Similar looking chart pattern in VXX just prior to big spike. Divergence indicator recently went bullish.
Not financial advice.
VIXY_
Technical analysis update: VIX (13th May 2021)VIX has spiked over last week as markets dropped. There is still moderate possibility of VIX going above 30 points before finally reversing to the downside. However, we think that VIX is currently overbought as it traveled too far away from its 20-day SMA. Furthermore, RSI supports this thesis as it shows overbought condition and possible peak in VIX.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Volatility - UVXY - Insider GamesIdea for UVXY:
- UVXY has announced a 10:1 reverse split on May 25.
- Time for panic?
- No. Plan the Trade. Execute the Trade.
GLHF
- DPT
UVXY - Entropy, Gravity, and LightIdea for UVXY:
- Attached is Fundamental Analyses.
- We do not expect UVXY to reach $1.00 before the reversal of the greater trend.
- Why would Volatility enter an increasing trend? We expect global economic contraction, before stagflation, then finally deflation.
GLHF,
DPT
Disclaimer:
We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
$VIXY time to bounce?Looking at the Historical Volatility (HV) for clues on the next bounce in the ProShares Trust II VIX Short Term Futures ETF ($VIXY).
A drop to the range of 20 to 25 on the HV has previous indicated a incoming bounce. We are almost there.
I have a few June 18th $12 calls currently will add on a drop to or below 25 on the HV.
Mr. Market remains fearless even with the recent default of Archegos - lets see if that holds.
VIX PT 04/2021VIX finally broke 2020 support levels & is struggling to pass it as resistance. Will trade sideways while money flows back into stocks & the correction eases throughout the month. The market wants to go even higher.
VOLATILITY - $VIX - Q1-Q2 Bullish Elliot Wave ForecastJust working on the forecast model. Practice makes perfect. This is my bullish Elliot Wave Forecast.
I think bullish (for VIX) - just look at M1 for a start, but there is more investigation to be done...
However:
“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.” - F. Scott Fitzgerald
Always need to have multiple threads in order to survive any sort of market or economic condition!
Should we minimize damage, or is the best defense a good offense?
GLHF
Are we there yet?Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of the crew I ask that you please direct your attention to the monitors above as we review the emergency procedures. There are six emergency exits on this aircraft. Take a minute to locate the exit closest to you. Note that the nearest exit may be behind you. Count the number of rows to this exit. Should the cabin experience sudden pressure loss, stay calm and listen for instructions from the cabin crew. Oxygen masks will drop down from above your seat. Place the mask over your mouth and nose, like this. Pull the strap to tighten it. If you are traveling with children, make sure that your own mask is on first before helping your children. In the unlikely event of an emergency landing and evacuation, leave your carry-on items behind. Life rafts are located below your seats and emergency lighting will lead you to your closest exit and slide. We ask that you make sure that all carry-on luggage is stowed away safely during the flight. While we wait for take off, please take a moment to review the safety data card in the seat pocket in front of you.
ridethepig | VIX Exploding 📌 ridethepig | VIX Exploding
Morning all... a short post, but one that is full of dramatic events. The 'discovered naked short' from wsb is a wildfire burning...the cleanest place to see the damage is in vol. This discovered vector in GME clarified the damaged relationship between central banks and market pricing while QE infinity provides a cover a 'risk free' environment. It's very similar to the round trip explosion we traded last year from 12 to 85 and back again.
When you pin shorts (the root of all evil), whether its GME, BB or VIX... it has enormous mobility. The magic of reddit has exposed Melvin Capital, Blackrock (own +/- 10% of GME) et al, while Citadel cheerlead in the background and will of course be fine and make money either way.
Let us take a closer look at the possible moves with the VIX; I find that the 44 pivot which is in the crosshairs can do one of two things;
a) The offer can evaporate rather quickly, even if it was previously nailed by barrier, which will trigger a momentum gambit towards 85.
b) We can attack and our opponent (sellers) without any anxiety step back in to occupy the control since it is their jurisdiction, i.e. one ladder that is controlled by your opponent.
Now consider the latest chart update:
Here a) was very much dependent on the October 2020 highs. Bear in mind how unafraid the buyers which are moving with force are. The wildfires are capable of satisfying a healthy appetite from retailers. with that in mind we are going to see capitulation across some more names.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
[UVXY] Still Exactly Bouncing Off Predicted Upchannel FractalYou can't make this stuff up lol.
Fractal Theory FTW!
OG thread:
[UVXY] Fractal Theory at Its Finest... Devastating 15M ChartI laid some of these lines months ago lol (green, white, blue dotted).
Upchannel fractal (gray dotted line) from weeks ago hit exactly.
It's pretty tippy, can't wait to see us puncture straight up into this target B).
VIX held the key to the heads up for a cliff hanger...Seen here is the VIX chart, and notably, two segments are highlighted.
First the Green box where VIX dropped to 21 as SPX rose higher.
However, later on, in the Red box area, a siumilar rise to the same level was not concomitantly seen with VIX retracement. In fact, the VIX was resilient in holding its ground at a higher level.
Subtle, but very significant.
A good learning point and we should see more of such... usually the downside moves are significant under these circumstances.
THE NEXT WAVE OF VOLATILITYMarket volume is drying up and we're seeing historic put:call ratio's on the indices. We have the necessary ingredients in the cake for a another wave of volatility to hit the market. Please see my previous post about the VIX and the compression patterns that often occur. Volatility tends to get bottled up and then erupt. We are likely in a bottling-up zone where fear is gone, and all is calm.. I suppose this can continue but I like to think we're nearing a volatility cycle low. I am of the opinion that the VIX is in a new, giant, price wedge. If you look at this chart, I think (a) will be tagged.. but perhaps it already has? I don't know. It could be now or it could be weeks from now. I'm speculating on the pattern some, but I will be looking to hedge my portfolio with long calls in volatility over the coming weeks.. and even months if necessary. I have learned to completely ignore mainstream news and focus entirely on the data. The math doesn't lie. People do.
Something to think about- Let's pretend I'm right about this being a new, giant price wedge. If this forecast turns out to hold water, then the market is likely to go significantly higher over the next couple of years.. I don't want to even mention numbers because this could be a big pattern. Regardless, I'm looking for the next wave of volatility to come rolling in. I've been around long enough to know that the market can creep & creep for weeks or months before pivots. Timing a market top is extremely difficult so one must not be too biased or emotional.
Another possibility: What if the VIX is already out of the cage? What if this isn't a new compression wedge? This pattern is my "optimistic" perspective for the markets.. It's possible that the vix could take off like a rocket to new highs where markets completely unravel. In time, the fundamentals WILL take over. I have no idea how much time we have.. all I can do is analyze the data.
TQQQ to 60s-70s - BearishWe all know the market is overdue for a correction. Many market makers estimate an approximately 10% sell off - corresponding to a +/- 30% sell off in TQQQ.
VXN and VIXY are setting up for a potential volatility breakout +/- Feb 02. Potential catalyst could be an underwhelming NFP? Rising corporate bond yields may also put pressure on valuations.
ridethepig | VIX for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig VIX Market Commentary 18.12.2020
A good time to update the VIX chart for the traditional Quad witching flows....After an exchange in Q1 2020 with VIX exploding to the topside as widely expected for all those following, there is now what follows, an opportunity for a panic cycle next week (21st December) followed by another window in January for the extraction. A weaker sell side has allowed the zig zag advance, buyers are threatening to decisively break the highs once more unlocking an execution at 85 for another board clear.
The position in my books is finally won by buyers, the ending will be instructive of US equities in particular. The position also has a chance of drawing at 20.0x support. While the same 85 targets (the position is an important link to the GA run off in Jan), taking the highs means we must chase and play from the centre. Buyers will wish to prove that 'resistance' is hanging by a thread, it might work.
Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
ridethepig | VIX Panic Cycle📍 The theme we have set ourselves here for an expansion in Vol into next week, would usually provide enough material for an entire website, but lack of space compels me to moderate this into a short and snappy post.
I shall only point out the most important notions and events from 2019 and save a deeper examination for later.
The most brilliant post covid act, to be sure the idea of an expansion in volatility is not only linked to the increase in danger from a health rollercoaster which I propagated, based on the models. But VIX's move is surprising and I will not deny the brilliance of the full retrace.
Also interesting is our earlier attempts to break up and make use of the flexible highs which we discovered ahead of US elections. All models are ticking up for the NY session today and looks set to last into next week. Aiming for the full set-up with 42 and 85.
It is also worth noting that 42 is an interesting defence, going on to pressurise Biden with a 'hospital pass' for those familiar with the terminology in Rugby, it is where you are so fixated on catching the ball while it is in the air, that you forget about everything else around you. This early complacency, looks as anti-pseudo-capitalist as possible, but has found a good number of followers and turned out to be an extremely fruitful trade in equities. Major chart updates coming across the board over the coming hours and weekend.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎...
ridethepig | Vix into the elections and 2021📌 Vix - Volatility
An expansion of volatility is coming; the attempt to step against the flow of Covid chapter II is reckless to say the least. According to my models, we have unfinished business to be done at 85 once more. I will continue to hold longs and look to add on dips for example towards 25, or enjoy a momentum gambit when we see the breakup.
This idea is very similar to the same struggle we had in Q1.
The stratagem of a contraction in globalisation is illustrated via an expansion of volatility . Buyers opened the attack position in a +600% move as capitalism surrendered. Sellers are already on their last legs.
