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VIXY_

ridethepig | VIX Market Commentary 2020.02.23Here we are tracking the massive breakup in Vol; this is looking dangerous and is right on time with Coronavirus kicking in. This was forecast miles in advance (see charts below) and has followed the mapped flows flawlessly since the previous swing we began tracking earlier last year: The sweep of the lows was a textbook example of clearing the board to open up the runway towards 38 and 85. We can continue to just keep recycling positions in the same levels and same direction. The price drivers keep telling us that; US Equities will also receive a major hammer as they are complete dislocated from reality. Good luck all those in VIX from the lows... a flawless +60% position in the @ridethepig portfolio so far from the infamous "Capitulation Waters". Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
1
The creeping VIX-just what the fed orderedSlow & boring-just what the fed ordered (or printed). Our manufacturing data may be in the dumps but we're sure good at manufacturing lies and artificial markets. Volatility coiling up-watch for possible wave to (D) before retracement/sideways movement to (E). I want a solid test of upper trend line-Vix could blow through the roof or coil up for months until after apex of this triangle. For now, they're keeping a tight lid on this.. The circus is in town and we're all in it. (renko blocks not playable from tradingview ideas window - I'll update this idea by posting snapshots as price moves along or when I feel something significant is happening)
TVC:VIXLong
by gghsusa
2
ridethepig | VIX Market Commentary 2019.12.20A quick update to the Vix chart as we enter into the final important NY session of the year with quadruple witching. For those tracking the previous flows we remain in the same levels with the same targets and the same flows to track: After we cleared TP1 we ran out of steam and decided to trade the retrace back towards Capitulation territory. This was enough to sweep the stops and absorb the floor: We then got the spike in VVIX as it dislocated the from the flows while Vix remained comatose. This is an important highlight to make as we enter into year end with markets happy to trade the reflationary theme something that smells very very off; With 2s5s screaming recession and protectionism hijacking the world what could possibly go wrong? Tracking closely Vix today for the year end flows and 2020 positioning...We will update in depth the fundamentals and technicals 2020 maps for Vix over the holiday period. Thanks for keeping all the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc! Best of luck those tracking VIX for signs of end of the cycle/reflationary 1H20 !!
CBOE:VIXLong
by ridethepig
8
VIXY / TVIX - Weekly View Confirms Bullish Flip ComingWeekly view on VIXY/TVIX confirms the trend should be flipping to Bullish by next week. Weekly RSI trend has just broken to the upside. Recently broke out of the shoe/banana pattern. VIXY has followed this pattern for years, so I feel this is strong. Everything is lining up to next week sometime we should see SPY go down and VIXY/TVIX go up. EXITS -At pink line around $19 -If Daily RSI gets to 70 or higher If we don't get a bullish trend by next week on VIXY, I am wrong. For Daily view posted yesterday see chart below. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, and VIXY. Short SPY, AAPL
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
10
VIXY / TVIX - Going Higher - Keep On Your Toes HereVIXY/TVIX showing a Buy Signal on the Daily yesterday. Yellow bull flag formation (kind of sloppy but its there). Price currently broke out bullishly. 10WeekMA is reaching out farther by the day to reach price. Rate is currently $1 per day closer to price (which is fast). If we cross 10WeekMA, price should continue higher. Based on current rate, 10WeekMA should reach price in less than 1 week if we don't pullback. Based on the action in VIXY, I feel that SPY/SPX has possibility to continue lower into Xmas. Exits -Pink wedge top around $19ish -First gap fill around $14. May pause. -Second gap fill around $18. -Last gap fill around $20. RSI trend should be watched closely for exiting trade or possible reversal. VIXY/TVIX moves fast so keep on your toes if you want to keep those profits (or set your sell orders/stop losses). Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, and VIXY. Short SPY, AAPL.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
5
VIXY / TVIX - Bull Flag - Inverse Relationship with SPX/SPY VIXY is forming a Bull Flag as SPX (or SPY) forms a Bear Flag. Price is reaching out to 10WeekMA just like SPX. The inverse relationship continues between these two, which confirms to me that the "hidden trend" is still in play. We are basically consolidating on the way down. Much like oxygen masks come out when a plane goes down to keep people calm, they are slowing the descent to keep people from panicking. Exits Exit 1 - I am waiting to pink line/top gap fill. Looking back I see VIXY filling all Daily gaps - despite it being full of gaps. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, and VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
4
VIXY / TVIX - Weekly ViewVIXY just turned bullish on trend for Weekly view yesterday. We have close gaps to fill above to $20. RSI has bullish divergence on Weekly view. Normally goes to 70 before calming down again. Looking at VIXY, SPY, and AAPL together I think the bigger picture is we are headed lower. Market is overbought. All these charts are correlating together in direct or inverse relationships. Massive gap fill opportunity at $55ish (when market goes into massive correction we fill $55 gap). Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, and VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
5
VIXY / TVIX - Volatility Pays $$$ - Not Done YetExit Points Top gap fills or pink resistance line around $19. RSI at 75 exit. Last two bullish runs RSI topped around 75 before downtrend. I think we are just getting started here. Bigger money coming in! Unusual Activity 22K ATM Calls on VIXY purchased TODAY. John Najarian uploaded a video. Can't believe I beat this dude to the punch. Charts rule! www.youtube.com This confirms to me that SPY downtrend and DJI downtrend continues. Stay frosty and on your toes my friends! Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, and VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
14
VIXY / TVIX - Turning BullishBuy signal triggered on Daily. RSI divergence is bullish. RSI still at 30 ( oversold). Fisher Transform shows trend flipped bullish (need to watch to make sure trend stays bullish). Gaps to fill above price and past 10WeekMA. If price goes above red zigzag, then I believe we fill top gaps to $20. SPY is showing a Sell signal on the Daily. I will update chart shortly. SPX chart was updated this morning. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
2
VIXY - Up Gaps to Fill & Pattern End Suggest Upcoming TurmoilNote - When dealing with VIXY and other VIX derivatives, keep in mind these are "volatility" plays. This means using risk management, stop losses, and price alerts IS A MUST. VIXY and VIX related derivatives look to have some excellent short-term and long-term potential. This also confirms for me the SPY downturn coming. In the past, VIXY has closed all gaps with the exception of 2 recent price gaps and 4 other gaps going back to June 2016. As the gaps are not too far back in time, the price is irrelevant to whether the gaps can be filled in my opinion. If we are close enough, meaning a few years (maybe even a decade) things can flip and gaps get filled. Short Term Repeating banana pattern is ending in days. By 12/1 we should see some kind of issue or spike in VIXY. Two recent gaps up are easy to fill, up to $20. We should hit the pink top resistance, and go back down (allowing for entry to short, but puts, or call credit spread possibly). Long Term Pink main wedge is coming to an end around April 2020. Bond yield curve inversion happened August 2019. Around 8 months. Coincidence? We have EPIC gaps to fill above. I could be wrong, but this could also fulfill 10X potential. Stock is $14 with gaps to fill up to $200. At this level, this is extremely cheap insurance if market goes down. If I were to buy the stock, I would set stop loss limits or be willing to dollar-cost-average into the stock from here, and willing to hold for 1 year or more. If I were to use options, I would play the reversal points of bottom (now) and top ( in a few weeks or less). Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
14
VIXY - BULLISH - Making Turn TodayWatching SPY and VIXY recently and the inverse relationship between them. VIXY is at all time lows, RSI bottomed out. SPY is at all time highs, RSI topped out. Perfect time to do a Bullish Put Credit Spread on VIXY - collect the premium. $340 risk, $2500 reward. Then buy SPY put 30 days out. $485 risk, unlimited payout (but realistically $775-$1500) We should see VIXY and the VIX related derivatives bullish through December. The charts are overly suppressed for long periods of time. If price is like a beach ball held under water, the longer its held down and deeper....the stronger the rebound towards the surface. I will update this chart for as long as I am in the position. What is a vertical credit spread? It's what insurance companies do - collect a premium, and if sh*t doesn't happen they keep it. If it does, they pay you with your own money. www.youtube.com Previous Charts Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
2
VIXY - Get In or Get Left OutVIXY and VIX derivatives are ready to spike. RSI, MACD, Fisher Transform, and Filter Dots all show reversal coming in next 5 business days. There are 4 gaps to fill, indicating a possible 44% positive correction to around $20 for VIXY. The reversal period is short here. I believe it may last until Christmas. Going to green curved line (Gaussian Channel midline) would be normal given the chart history. November 26th or sooner, I feel we will exit the current pattern up. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
TVIX - Same bannana pattern as VIXYSome people wanted another chart for a similar symbol (TVIX vs VIXY). Not everyone can trade same ticker. Not trying to duplicate my last post. So....this is for the hommies LOL RSI getting to all time low - about to turn BULLISH. Same pattern as the VIXY chart - confirmation that we will see VIX increase. Happy Holiday$ :) Bannana pattern ends around December 1st. SPY, AAPL, and GOOG (GOOGL) all seem topped out and maximum RSI around....December 1st. Seems like we are about to see some action. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL. For the VIXY chart:
TLong
by MoneyPatterns
7
VIXY - Reversal Area - Bannana/Shoe PatternI have heard this pattern be called a "shoe" or a "bannana". Downward straight trendline with curved supporting line (more than 3 points of contact). Pattern repeats in VIXY chart as seen. Bullish reversal is short 7-10 days. We are currently in the bottom of the bannana, ready to breakout. RSI shows wedge pattern as well, indicating breakout in RSI. We are close to all time low RSI. I was able to use a bullish Put Credit Spread here for 5 contracts 12/20/2019 14/19 spread ($3.83 each) and take an upfront credit of $1925 for $575 risk. IV is over 60 for both put options in the spread. Theta works positively for us here and we should see VIXY spike during Christmas. This trade has over 70% probability of success based on the numbers. Please see the videos below and do your own research. For excellent free training on options (Options Industry Council) www.optionseducation.org How Theta works positively for us as sellers - www.youtube.com Bullish Put Credit Spread - www.youtube.com Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY and short AAPL.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
VIXY - Waiting to POPThe longer VIXY is held down, the stronger it generally pops. Good hedge against SPY downturn. Use dollar cost average to pick up a few shares every day or every other day. These turn great profits in short time. Options are also cheap. I recommend monthly's here which give you time for either a pop or a slow 7-10 day run up (plus extra time). I am a buyer of Calls here although you could sell Puts and get the stock cheap if your option fails. Good either way :) When the recession does happen using VIXY with GDX and SPY (shorts or puts) I believe will turn profits even in down market. FREE Resource for those inexperienced with options - www.optionseducation.org Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
2
VIXY - Bullish Uptrend VIXY, VIXX, TVIX All looking to make the turn higher. Using the VIXY chart (all charts are almost identical except price), we see Bullish EMA Cross incoming. If we close above the 1HR Gaussian Channel, we turn Bullish / Green and continue higher for sure. Updates daily on VIXY until we reach target or pattern breaks down. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY and short SPY.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
VIXY - Waiting to pop - Set to restest $20's before year end"The VIX projects a test of major resistance in the upper-20’s before year-end," says Addison, who is is the author of THE INSTITUTIONAL VIEW, a research service that specializes in technical analysis. "Once the VIX has a weekly close above 32, then my work would confirm upside projections to 50-55," he continues. He sees additional stock market declines ahead if the VIX does indeed rise. Source - www.investopedia.com Market seems like the rug is about to be pulled out. Everyone singing Kumbaya with market at ATH, QE money printing, negative interest, ballooning corporate and government debt. Does total fiscal irresponsibility seem like the place that "normal people" are putting their money? I think not. Please feel free to comment, like, or follow. Thank you to all who comment and further the discussion (good or bad). All opinions are welcomed. Thumbs up are appreciated as well. :)
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
SPY - Bearish - Ascending Wedge Running Out of SteamAll indicators are turning Bearish on Daily - MACD, RSI, Fisher Transform. Everything is overbought. Average downturn was 15 days last two times. This is part of a very large ascending wedge which pattern suggests will fail sometime 2020. Nov 18 Put at Strike Price is $250ish...but return to SPY 270 level turns $250 into $2900 :) We probably get to SPY 290 which could be a double. Nice risk reward. 1:10x SPY down = GDX and VIX up. (and vice versa) Just my opinion. Not financial advice. Disclosure - I am long BTC, GBTC, GDX, and MARA. Puts - SPY. Calls - MARA, GDX, VIXY.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by MoneyPatterns
VIXY - Reversal In PlayFisher Transform, MACD, and RSI turned bullish on Daily. Falling wedge within falling wedge is turning to breakout higher. Going into the holidays it may go super-bullish and blast through the top of wedge. Otherwise rejection at top of wedge in November/December provides another entry in January at point of wedge. By Mid-2020 to Late-2020 we should see VIXY get above $30 with elections and market peaking. Monthly Call options are fairly cheap for VIXY. Or a person can dollar cost average from now until about January for good position. Excellent risk to reward payout on options. I am long VIXY, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, and MARA.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
3
9 Year Falling Wedge - Sh*t going to hit the fan soonA falling wedge of this magnitude is rare in my opinion. This level for the VIX is also great for GBTC and Bitcoin. 9 years show this wedge is falling to lowest levels ever - Right before presidential race, qualitative easing, negative interest, and ballooning corporate debt. Comes to a point February 2020 but could take off before. But it should retest $30+ in my opinion. I am using Call options on Nov 1 and Nov 8 currently. $16.5 Call for $0.30 each ($30 bucks). Cheap for roughly 1:7 (risk/reward) ratio, make $500 off $70. Shows a buy on the Daily today - But if you want to watch for more time, look for another entry in 4-8 weeks back at this level. I will be getting Calls for March - June depending on how chart looks.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns