VIXY_
VIX - Market Crash Cycles | Indices | Macro Trends*Please support this idea with a LIKE if it helps you. Thanks!
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VIX should be able to resume the down-trend soon and complete the "greed" cycle, which in turn would translate bullish momentum for Indices and a postpone on the inevitable Market Crash sequence.
If however a break-out would occur, then a proper spike could be in play, translating into a prolonged "fear" period.Nevertheless, these are crucial times and the movements will be epic.
Just need to be on top of it and keep on tracking, confirm and then tap into the real trend.Eat, sleep, trade and visualize those pips piling up.
INDICE VIX (VOLATILIDAD) GATILLA ALZA HACIA CRASH EMERGENTECBOE:VIX TVC:VIX AMEX:VIXY AMEX:VIXY
TAL COMO ADELANTARA OPORTUNANMENTE, NUNCA EXISTIERON AVANCES DE NEGOCIACION ENTRE EEUU Y CHINA CON RESPECTO HACIA LOS ARANCELES.
SINO, UNA ESTRATEGIA COORDINADA CON FONDOS DE INVERSION PRESOS DE POSICIONES IRREALIZABLES, YA QUE SE POSTERGO DICHA CONCRECION DE NEGOCIACION EN TRES OPORTUNIDADES, ALGO QUE LA SECUENCIA DE PISOS ESTABLECIDOS EN EL DOLAR YUAN FX_IDC:USDCNY .
WALL STREET A TRAVES DE LA MANIPULACION DEL VIXY (ETF DEL VIX) PUDO LLEGAR A ESTABLECER MAXIMOS CUANDO EN REALIDAD , EL MUNDO DE LOS MERCADOS EMERGENTES ESTABLECIERON ONDA B) CONTRATENDENCIAL.
LA SALIDA FUERTE DEL INDICE VIX HACIA UN PRIMER IMPULSO CERCANO A 21 DOLARES, GATILLA TIPO CRASH, PERO LA SECUENCIA DEBERA SER PROGRESIVA PARA ENTRAR EN CLIMAX ENTRE JULIO-NOVIEMBRE, AL ESTILO SUBPRIME EEUU, PERO CON IMPORTACION POR CRISIS FINANCIERA EMERGENTE, Y ACTIVACION CRISIS BANCA EUROPEA CON CONSECUENCIAS EN ASIA.
VIXY Is anyone seeing what im seeing???A topped out market showing major bearish divergences on multiple oscillators, volatility is dirt cheap and just using the most very simple basic TA anyone looking at the S and P 500 can say it is extremely overbought and just damn expensive, how much more upside can be possible in this market???? Do not get sucked in for 27 a share the upside is out of control especially if we get a major 2008 type scenario which seems to be closer and closer you will make more $$$. these are once a decade opportunities
Market Timing W/ VIX MomentumSimple chart - using VIX moving average crosses can help you time when to sell in markets quite well. I like using exponential moving averages, and using the 15 day and 45 day works really well historically. In short, if you're bearish, watch when the 15 day EMA of the VIX index crosses higher than the 45 day EMA for your signal to sell.
Trade War Volatility! VIXY Pending a BreakoutVIXY is getting ready for a breakout. Currently testing the MA30. If it passes this test with a strong move above, I think this is a buy. Wait for a retest of the MA30 before entering.
VIXY Cup-and-Handle - Busted, or Just a Little Late?Market uncertainty continues.
The VIXY started tracing out a cup-and-handle pattern from August 2017 to April 2018 but has waffled in the last couple weeks.
Fed decisions, peak earnings, trade concerns, geopolitical uncertainty, rising inflation, and bond rates are all contributing to uneasiness.
Thanks in advance for lending me your attention!
Is the VIXY ready to rally, or is the cup-and-handle busted?
Traders are struggling to find a reason for the markets to go higher (aside from alleviation of trade fears and smart Fed choices), and we're still seeing relatively large daily price swings in intraday trading. A large-scale selloff and plummeting market would send the VIXY soaring.
We've seen a run in the price of the cryptos - is a selloff only on hold because Wall Street doesn't know where to put its money?
Please like, follow, and share, and maybe we can have fun and do great things together.
Thanks again!
See it on the site: holsturr.com/category/markets/charts/
** For speculative and research purposes only - good luck! **
VIXY Volatility VIX Breakout or breakdown soonIt appears that volatility is preparing to breakout or breakdown soon. There is good reason for it due to the fear in the marketplace. Have investor fears reached their peak? Or are we just getting started? I think we will have the answer soon. On the price chart, it appears we have an ascending triangle. On the MACD, we have a symmetric triangle. The apex on the MACD lands on April 9.
I am fully expecting volatility to break upward. But the market overall is expecting this. What we think does not always happen. I still think odds point towards it, but either way, I expect we will know soon.
We can play volatility with ETFs like VIXY or 2x UVXY. When we expect volatility to go down there is SVXY but that fund has too much risk. It had over a 90% decline in February. Shorting SVXY could be an option if we expect volatility to go up, but my broker does not allow that. Does anyone know a broker that allows us to short SVXY?
Please share your thoughts and comments here.
Cup-and-Handle in the VIXY: Volatility Upside, Market Gloom?Hello again Tradingview community,
Some unexpected life events pulled me away from the market (and everything else) for a few days, but I'm back and ready to share a new idea.
Thank you for taking the time to take a look :))
We have a cup-and-handle technical pattern tracing out in the VIXY, indicating a break to the upside in volatility and inductively suggesting a break downward in the overall market.
Despite the brevity of this idea, I intend to provide more detailed analysis and more engaging discussion in my future posts as time becomes available in my day-to-day activity. I am excited to engage further with my fellow traders, and thank you again for stopping by!
Holst
** This post does not represent any recommendations and is intended only for speculative and research purposes **
VIX Long: Quantitative analysisThe following data is meant to help guide the decision as to when to buy/go long on the short term and midterm VIX related etfs/etfs. The VIX daily minimum and closing prices were downloaded from the CBOE website. The % of days with daily minimums and daily closing prices were then calculated in three over 3 time periods ((the last 12 1/2 years, the last 9 years, and the last 2 years).
Note that there are periods of low volatility during strong bull markets, especially the housing bubble .
DATASET #1 Last 12 1/12 years:
CBOE VIX daily minimum prices from 1/5/2004 to 7/29/2016.
Last 3165 trading days days (from 1/5/2004 to 7/29/2016).
Vix Value Number of days % of days
< 10 12 0.38
< 10.5 62 1.96
< 11 144 4.55
< 11.5 250 7.90
< 12 384 12.1
CBOE VIX daily closing prices from 1/5/2004 to 7/29/2016.
Last 3165 trading days days (from 1/5/2004 to 7/29/2016).
Vix Value Number of days % of days
< 10 4 0.12
< 10.5 35 1.11
< 11 92 2.90
< 11.5 174 5.50
< 12 302 9.54
There was an extended period of low volatility during the bull market run from November 2004 through June 2007 (the housing bubble).
Since then, low volatility has been much less frequent.
DATASET #2 Last 9 years:
(9 years plus 1 month)
CBOE VIX daily minimum prices from 7/2/2007 to 7/29/2016.
Last 2287 trading days (from 7/2/2007 to 7/29/2016).
Vix Value Number of days % of days
< 10 0 0.00
< 10.5 3 0.13
< 11 14 0.612
< 11.5 39 1.71
< 12 83 3.63
CBOE VIX daily closing prices from 7/2/2007 to 7/29/2016
Last 2287 trading days (from 7/2/2007 to 7/29/2016).
Vix Value Number of days % of days
< 10 0 0.00
< 10.5 1 0.04
< 11 9 0.39
< 11.5 18 0.79
< 12 50 2.19
DATASET #3 Last 2 years:
CBOE VIX daily minimum prices from 8/1/2014 to 7/29/2016.
Last 504 trading days (from 8/1/2014 to 7/29/2016).
Vix Value Number of days % of days
< 10 0 0.00
< 10.5 0 0.00
< 11 1 0.20
< 11.5 5 0.99
< 12 31 6.15
CBOE VIX daily closing prices from 8/1/2014 to 7/29/2016.
Last 504 trading days (from 8/1/2014 to 7/29/2016).
Vix Value Number of days % of days
< 10 0 0.00
< 10.5 0 0.00
< 11 0 0.00
< 11.5 1 0.20
< 12 12 2.38
The net results:
I am setting trade alerts to notify me of VIX trading <12, < 11.5, and < 11.0.
I will buy the midterm VIXM and VXZ when the VIX is < 12.
I will consider buying the short term VIXY and VXX and the short term 2x leveraged UVXY when the VIX is < 11.0. The short term etfs/etns should not be held long term due to losses due to cotango. The daily leveraged etfs also usually decline due to daily rebalancing (I haver not checked UVXY on this0. The midterm etfs/etns decay more slowly over time (see my other posted VIX idea).
Note that if we enter a sustained strong bull market like the bull market run from November 2004 through June 2007 (the housing bubble), this strategy will not work well. I am in the camp that a debt crash will occur at some point in the next couple of years. Also the US population will be going over its demographic cliff. .
Note that, if we undergo a major crash, we may not see VIX below 12 for Note the highly respected chartwatchers (whom I trust a great deal) thinks we will be in a bull market for the next 1-2 years.
Volatility Outlook (VIX) June 2016During periods of risk the VIX tends to get inverted- typically during times of stress this has stay inverted for quite some time, 6 weeks after last years shock valuation from China.
When this curve goes back to a normal upwards sloping curve, this is usually a very good sign.
The US equity markets has been pricing in the UK as an 'island', the risk of Brexit is enormous.
The problem is and this is where the options market gets it right, it's going to be like watching a really boring movie in slow motion.
There are not a lot of near time trading events from an options point of view, or a risk point of view.
Borris has taken himself out, how do you really trade that? there are not a lot of really tradable events in the near-term.
The end of quarter beta chase were not as important had be not had the Brexit and market been up 9% YTD
The volatility floor, globally will rise to a higher level - it really comes down to the political dynamics in the euro-zone, if these can be contained.
SPX/VIX 4/22/2016It seems to have been rejected by the primary downtrend line (purple) on 4/20/2016. We need to watch it closely.
SPY/VIX 4/22/2016It seems to have been rejected by the primary downtrend line (purple) on 4/20/2016. We need to watch it closely.
Amadeo Ratio 4/19/2016Use it with benevolence and love. Use it to pursue peace and serenity. Keep in mind that Doing cannot do much without Non-doing.
SPY/USO/VXX/GLD/SLV Ratio 4/18/2016 (Short-Term View)There is giant rising wedge forming. This ratio seems to indicate the aggregate perception of the US economy - the higher the better. As you can see in August 2015, there was a huge leg down which was unprecedented in this chart.
