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VIX soars after hitting levels unseen since November 2019After returning to a level unseen since November 2019, the Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX) soared nearly 30% within a matter of seven days. In the process, it broke above the resistance indicated by the lower bound of the fan pattern that we have been observing since late December 2023. On top of that, yesterday, VIX formed an opening gap, and today another one. Illustration 1.01 Above is the daily graph of the Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX). The yellow arrow indicates a breakout through the lower bound of the fan pattern, acting previously as resistance and now as support. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIX
by Tradersweekly
2
VIX back to $20?With economists celebrating the "goldilocks economy" and VIX breaking below the lower bound of the pattern, the big question lingers: "Is this another fakeout before resurgence to $20?" Illustration 1.01 The yellow arrow indicates a breakout below the lower bound of the pattern we have been observing since its early formation. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
6
Volatility will be put to the test this weekWhile volatility pulled back following a spike earlier this month, this week will put it back to the test with the FOMC meeting (on Tuesday and Wednesday) and economic releases throughout the week, including S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTs job openings, S&P Global Composite PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, ISM Services PMI, nonfarm payrolls, participation rate, and unemployment rate. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
VIX is making higher highs and higher lowsWhile the market continues to rise and investors grow confident the rally won't stop, the VIX keeps subtly making higher highs and higher lows. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
4
VIX is getting ready to roll The VIX failed to close the opening gap it formed yesterday, which is slightly concerning news (especially if also considering an ongoing bloodbath in the Asian market and the potential spillover effect into Western equity markets). As a result, we are closely monitoring the resistance at $14.49; a breakout above it will bolster the bullish case for the VIX, while the gap's closing will suggest otherwise. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
9
VIX is showing signs of awakeningAs the stock market is beginning to manifest weakness, we are paying close attention to the VIX, which is starting to exhibit signs of awakening. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
The odds of another spike in the VIX are growingOn Friday, the Volatility S&P 500 Index reached new lows unseen since January 2020. What is intriguing about this situation is that new lows in the value of the VIX tended to be followed by a subsequent spike in the index and weakness in the U.S. stock market (over the past year or so). Considering that the recovery of the Chinese stock market is starting to show signs of stagnation, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index moving increasingly sideways, we are again on high alert. The odds of stock market reversal and spike in the VIX are growing. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of the Shanghai Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and S&P 500 Index. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for an individual investor to take any trade action. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
2
Opening gap not retraced yetOne thing we would like to point out is yesterday's opening gap in the Volatility S&P 500 Index. A failure of the price to fill the gap risks rekindling the volatility in the short-term future. As such, it is something we are paying attention to. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
10
VIX is back to the pre-2020 market crash levelsIn early June 2023, we noted that VIX reached levels that preceded the 2022 market meltdown. After that, the index continued lower and advanced toward levels unseen since January 2020 (levels that preceded the 2020 market crash). The current low value of VIX reflects extremely high complacency in the market and the growing dismissal of any economic downturn on the horizon. With many people already thinking that recession is averted and the market is poised to continue only up, we wonder whether the time for contrarian play is slowly approaching us. As a result, we will monitor the market very closely and look for signs that will prompt us to action. We will update our thoughts on the subject with the emergence of new significant developments. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
4
VIX is dangerously lowThe Volatility S&P 500 Index rose slightly today, following a short period with a relatively low value. As is displayed on the chart, within the past year, these moments often coincided with tops in SPX and preceded times of increased volatility with significant selling pressure. Therefore, we will monitor this metric closely in the following days. *The orange line represents SPX. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
12
Opening gap, and VIX rising more than 9%We want to hint at the opening gap in the Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX), potentially foreshadowing big moves in the market. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
13
VIX - The recent high to be taken out soonThe volatility index, VIX, has spiked again, with the market marking new lows for the year. With these grim developments, we continue to be bullish on the index and expect it to reach our short-term price target of 35 USD soon. As if it was not enough, we expect VIX to continue higher over time. Therefore, we want to set a medium-term price target for VIX at 37 USD. Our preceding articles are attached to this idea. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
24
VIX - Volatility is likely to continue higher In tandem with our expectations, VIX reached our short-term price target of 30 USD during the FED meeting, constituting a new high. This development hints at a deepening bear market, which foreshadows a more significant spike in volatility over the coming months. We draw this conclusion from a combination of factors. These include fundamental factors on the level of central banks, like higher interest rates and quantitative tightening, and technical factors associated with major stock market indices, all pointing to more weakness ahead. Due to that, we have no reason to change our bullish bias on the volatility index. Accordingly, we stick to our price target of 35 USD; however, we would like to change it from a medium-term price target to a short-term price target. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
14
VIX - Volatility about to creep back in the marketIn tandem with our bearish assessment of the stock market, we predict the return of increased volatility in the market. As a result, we would like to set a medium-term price target for VIX at 30 USD. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the weekly chart of VIX. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
29
VIX - Volatility is skyrocketingIn early August 2022, we warned that volatility would creep back into the market. Not long enough after that, the market started to sell off, and VIX skyrocketed from 20 USD to over 27 USD. Therefore, we stick to our short-term price target of 30 USD for VIX. However, we want to set a new medium-term price target at 35 USD. Illustration 1.01 The chart shows a bullish breakout above the resistance and two opening gaps on VIX. All of these developments are immensely bullish for VIX. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
26
VIX - The market weakness will lead to higher volatility The market volatility is on the rise, with VIX rising over 30% since 12th August 2022. We continue to be bullish on the index as we forecast more pain for the stock market. Our view is based upon fundamental factors. Because of that, we will pay close attention to the upcoming FED meeting. Accordingly, we maintain a short-term price target for VIX at 30 USD and a medium-term price target at 35 USD. Illustration 1.01 Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
10
VIX - LongWe continue to be bearish on the general stock market and, therefore, bullish on the VIX. Accordingly, we stick to our short-term price target of 30 USD and a medium-term price target of 35 USD. We will pay close attention to the FED meeting on Wednesday as we expect the volatility index to rise further after the meeting. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
19
VIX - Volatility is set to skyrocketWith the FOMC only a week away, the volatility index is set to rise again. Our conclusion is based upon the premise that the upcoming rate hike will negatively impact the U.S. economy, which already started to manifest a return of selling pressure. In our opinion, this marks the resumption of the downtrend. We expect the selloff to accelerate in the coming weeks. Therefore, our short-term price target for VIX stays at 35 USD. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
14