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VLO

Short MPCIf oil takes a significant dip overnight, I will be short MPC. I don't think there is any fundamental to support this stock to the upside anyways, so I am shorting calls. Plus I am not much of an options buyer unless to trying to hit a home run. The blue line represents options expiration day. These are 4h bars. Important to note that NOT all refiners are trading in tandem. MPC and TSO are down today, while HFC, PSX, and VLO are all up. Note TSO and HFC report their second quarter 2016 results 8/3.
NYSE:MPCShort
by nodiggity
HIGH VOL: KEEP WATCHING!!!Look guys, this is the same Fib retracement that has HELD since the Jan-Feb selloff. Do not take my word for it. Look at my previous predictions, load the new data, and see how much money was made. MPC has had a history of bucking the market. When SPX was down 2%, this was down 7%. When SPX was up 3%, this was up over 8.5%. This is a lower liquidity, higher volatility play. I am NEUTRAL on MPC. To be honest, I've put no money into for a long time. Money could have been made straddling the 2nd fib level, but the reaction to Brexit (not the market reaction to Brexit itself) has caused everybody to look at everything closer, and rightly so.) Here's what we know: MPC is range-bound in the 2nd fib level. We also know it's good for a 8% pop or drop in a one session. Is that within your risk tolerance?? It's not within mine. Conclusion: IF YOU DO NOT HAVE TO TRADE, DO NOT TRADE. I honestly would not look at this stock until after earnings (July 28th). That will give the market plenty of time to digest new capital inflows from stock buy-backs, and allow for a reaction that may be based on technicals vs. fundamentals. There is money to be made, but patience is a virtue. If you see something I don't?....Please share! I need to eat too...
NYSE:MPC
by nodiggity
1
Cash in: No hold weekend for meNo reason to hold anything over the weekend unless you have to. Something smelly about the markets. I can feel the SPY wanting to sell. MPC rallied up testing 37.00 fib level. It tested that level and it did not breach. The chart indicates overall bullish. It has/is building a nice $35 floor for itself. THE MODEL HAS NOT BEEN RE-DRAWN AND MPC IS TRADING PER THOSE FIB LEVELS SINCE MY FIRST MPC FIB POST. You can put a strangle on at 37.00 and 35.00 if you can afford to be that close to the money, but my money is better off elsewhere. Now, if it rallies to $37.80, that'd make a nice cup formation. MPC has history of cup-and-handle breakout (see older chart). Now, if you have followed my posts, you will have noticed me repeatedly saying that MPC has a history of bucking the SPY. It has. With that said, it's outside my own personal risk appetite. Have a good weekend!
NYSE:MPC
by nodiggity
1
Stay Long MPCIf you went bullish on calls per my previous post, you are enjoying a nice pop today. My time horizon is longer so I am holding until $38.75 (the next fib level). The MA just crossed and I want that to marinate for a few sessions. You should be just playing with house money now if you bought the day or day after I posted. This is technicals-only trade devoid of any fundamentals if that had to be said for this website! The narrative is refiners have been oversold for the past couple weeks. The market has realized that now. I'm not paying attention to anything in action in CL or any news about Nigeria. That is all noise to me. The only thing I'm paying attention to is that MA cross and the two fib lines that define my stop/sell positions.
NYSE:MPCLong
by nodiggity
Buy MPC callsGet em while they're cheap! You might find cheaper premiums on HFC as they nose-dived yesterday, but MPC has stronger fundamentals IMO. And a reminder like always, MPC has a history of bucking the market the market: SPY. In regard to fundamentals, this is an oversold reaction to MPC and other refiners' posting losses for Q1 2016. We all knew the refining margins honeymoon would come to a close eventually. This is a response not in rising crude prices, but rather a response to the lack of rise of gasoline prices (the other leg that makes up the refining crack spread).
NYSE:MPCLong
by nodiggity
2
Quant Model Indicates 20-day Upside in VLOOur academically-based quant models indicate that Valero is likely to perform strongly over the next 20 days: Short term indicators: Above 20-day, 50-day, 200-day moving averages Close to 52-week high Not that overbought Our academically-based quant models also indicate that Valero is likely to perform strongly over the next 12 months: Long term indicators: Undervalued on revenue, earnings, book value, and free cash flow basis Strong price momentum Excellent profitability & earnings growth
NYSE:VLOLong
by QuantifiedAlpha.com