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VNQ

Real Estate Sector; A Very Bearish FractalJust like in the lead up to the 2008 the REITs have been going up with no sign of slowingh down whilst inside of an Ascending Broadenign Wedge/Channel and has on it's 4th attempt gone above the Supply Line Breifly only to very quickly come back down again and now it's cracked below botht the 21 and 55 Month EMAs; The last time it's done marked the beginning of an accelerated move down and the eventual Breakdown of the wedge where it then went for the measured move of the wedge which is the price where the wedge began; In this case that would be back down at $289.91 For more context as to how this dump started check the Idea in the Related Ideas Tab as that has a Weekly Timeframed Chart of the VNQ ETF that was showing Bearish Variables before the REIT's Decline Began.
DJ:REITShort
by RizeSenpai
$VNQ: At a buy zone...This could be a substantial bottom in $VNQ here, worth monitoring at the very least. I have no position here, but tracking thee main ETFs and top 30 market cap stocks at all times, as well as my own watchlist for my long term account, and my screening tool output. Sentiment has been quite bad, and we had a rapid worsening of financial conditions for home buyers, akin to that of 1982, which is a very dramatic move, affordability wise. Let's see how this evolves, I'm thinking bond yields and mortgage rates will likely start to come down hard from here onwards as well, so naturally, Real Estate will breathe some fresh air. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:VNQLong
by IvanLabrie
Silver versus Real EstatePotential relationship between real estate (using VNQ etf as a proxy) and silver. I drew this several months ago and so far the arc and channel have held. I've heard of the 18 year RE cycle but wonder if that's only valid during a prolonged bull market. I expect at least a 10 year bear market in the SPX to begin in the next few years after a final top is made. Will that 18 year cycle get affected as well? In 1980 one could buy a median sized home for approx 1272 ounces. Then in 2011 it took 4647 ounces. How many ounces will one need at the next cycle high for silver expected this decade vs home price? Ref: www.silvercoins.com
TVC:SILVER
by hypersonic78
2
Is BTC Inflation Proof? Is BTC Solid against Inflation? Well, my little inquisitive love muffins, let’s find out! What is inflation? Inflation refers to the increase in prices of goods AND services within an economy. It is commonly referred to devaluation of the dollar. What causes inflation? Complex question that maybe many don’t agree on but in essence; - Excessive money printing by the Federal Government (i.e. the Venezuela crises and kind of like North America now); - Central bank policy, regulations and laws (i.e. 1970s inflation crises) - Availability of goods and services (i.e. currently) - List goes on Theoretical basis for the position that BTC is inflation proof? I think different arguments have been advanced for this, but in general, under the law in North America (Canada and the USA), BTC and Cryptocurrency is not actually considered a currency. It is classified as a “good” (and there is a reason for this, that being TAXATION! If the Government recognized Crypto as a currency, they would not be able to legally tax you on it, so you can BET that Crypto will NEVER be considered a currency!!!). Yes, you can use Crypto to buy things, but at the end of the day, policy and regulation views Crypto as a “good” that a person “owns”. And thus, the presumption would be, if it is a good and inflation causes prices of goods to rise, then BTC should, technically, rise with the price of goods and services. So is BTC inflation proof? Quick answer is, not really in the way that I think people intended it to be. But so far, sort of. Long answer, below: What is Cryptocurrency, really? Its interesting, I was excited to write this post because in law school I had to write a legal brief on what the classification of Ethereum should be under the law in Canada (I argued a security like a stock). And what’s interesting is Crypto in general and BTC generally behave like a stock! And particularly they behave like a growth stock. They grow with time and peoples’ interest, and continued investment of holders (or should I say HOLDERS? Is that the term?). I recently did an analysis on BTC where I briefly compared it to SPY (S&P 500) and we saw BTC had much better growth than SPY but was behaving quite similarly to SPY. And BTC and other Cryptos have all they key makings of a stock, you can hold them on a exchange, trade them either on an exchange or through blockchain, buy, sell, short, long, hold, etc. While, it is not IDENTICAL to a stock, the key makeup is there (at least, legally and technically). And, perhaps unfortunately or perhaps not so unfortunately, depending on your stance, BTC and Crypto has begun to follow the market almost to a T. In preparing to write this, I correlated BTC to 3 other equities, SPY (S&P 500 ETF), USO (United States Oil ETF), GLD (Gold ETF) and VNQ (Real-Estate Index ETF). I will post the raw statistical data in the image below. In this chart, we look at the Pearson Correlation (or R value, you linear regression analysts will know this well!) to determine the strength of the relationship. And we see, BTC has a HUGELY strong POSITIVE relationship to SPY. What does that mean? It means, we can expect BTC to follow SPY fairly consistently. In fact, from this degree of a relationship, I can actually use BTC data to accurately predict SPY data (like highs, lows, ranges, etc.) without even looking at SPY data. That is how strong the relationship is! Inversely, we see a really and NEGATIVE relationship between BTC and OIL, and that is shared between SPY and OIL, which means that Oil will do the INVERSE of SPY and BTC. SPY and BTC go up, Oil will likely go down, etc. So what does it all mean? Well, it means a couple of things: - BTC behaves like a growth stock. This, in general, is neutral, it’s neither good nor bad. And I would argue its kind of good because we buy BTC with the aspiration of it “going to the moon”. - BTC is vulnerable to market conditions. There is just no way to deny this unfortunately. The relationship BTC has wit the market is undeniable statistically and I would be feeding you lies if I said “its okay, its completely independent of the market, you will be fine”. Because, the statistics are strong and compelling here. - That said, just because BTC follows the market, does not mean it will behave in the same way as other growth stocks. This is the area that we still don’t know for sure. As of right now, BTC is actually trading normally (you can refer to my other post), meaning that it has not sold off to a point where BTC would be considered “negative growth”. IF you look at PayPal stock, that stock has sold off into negative growth. Same with NFLX. BTC has not! It is still holding its, let’s call it “statistically expected” value based on its position as a growth “good”. Just because BTC follows SPY, does not mean that the annualized return rates and value are identical (GLD has technically outperformed SPY and it still is fairly strongly linked to SPY). It just means, the behaviour is similar. And because it currently retains its expected value, we can say that so far it has technically warded off inflation. Yes, there is some devaluation here, but this devaluation cannot be attributed to inflation alone at this point in time, because this devaluation is a “statistically expected” happening in the lifespan of BTC, whether there be inflation or not (I am trying to explain this as simply as I can haha). - The other thing is, BTC and Crypto has a sizeable fan base and a sizeable portion of the population that may think that this will aid in holding off inflation. Thus we may see more people place larger holdings into BTC and Crypto in general during times of high inflation, which would ultimately cause the price to rise and thus, at least at face value, appear to be warding off inflation dramas. Conclusion So, should you buy BTC to ward off inflation? My answer is, it depends. If you are TRULY concerned about inflation and inflation alone and you have a sizeable net worth that you want to guard against inflation and you are nearing retirement or you may need a sizeable portion of this money in the near future, then no. The answer is no. You should follow conventional recommendations of financial analysts and invest in Gold, commodities, bonds, etc. Consult with a Financial Planner for sure, but I wouldn’t recommend BTC. Anyone else, my motto is diversification! I wouldn’t put all my eggs in one basket, but investing in BTC or Ethereum or Doge, it wouldn’t hurt. I personally have a sizeable holding in Tezos (XTZ) that I continually add to every once in a while and stake. DO I think its going to protect me against inflation? No, probably not, but that’s not the point. I believe in it, I like it, I think it has potential and if it does ward off inflation, well, great! At the end of the day, there is more chance that Tezos or BTC will increase dramatically in price than say Gold or commodities. Yes, Gold is a stable investment, but its not going to go “to the moon” anytime soon. That's it! Thanks for reading! These are my opinions that I have drawn from a look at math and chart based data. It is not financial advice. If you are truly concerned about inflation, I would advise speaking to a financial advisor. These markets can be difficult to navigate! Let me know your questions/comments/critiques below!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Steversteves
10
RE - Real Estate Double Top Before FOMCIdea for Real Estate: - Real Estate testing a double top after some exhaustion Sept-Oct. - MBB's rolling over, rejected at -1 Std Dev: - Because every other market component is already at +2/-2 Std Dev, and Real Estate is relatively less volatile than say S&P 500, I think the +1/-1 Std Dev is a good signal. - We will have more confirmation next week depending on Fed's decision to taper MBS purchases. I think the Fed will stick to their signaled schedule in hopes of avoiding any sort of a "tantrum". - Historically, RE and MBS's lead declines in equities. - We have seen both commodity prices, Building Permits and pending Home Sales come down, so a decline is natural: - Overseas property market declining is likely to have headwinds as well: GLHF - DPT
AMEX:XLREShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
4
Why Im Watching Real Estate [VNQ]Vanguard Real Estate is showing some interesting things after quietly consolidating since early June. And now, it finds itself in the midst of a breakout of its previous all time high at $105.77. It is still very early, but if the VNQ can confirm any sort of sustained price action above the $105.77 price level on the daily and weekly time frames, fireworks could be in store for the REITs sector of the market. It should be mentioned that VNQ's price action has not properly back-tested the always important .786 fib level ($99.35) I have plotted here. So a pull back to this level before having enough juice to push decisively through the all time high would not be out of the ordinary. On the flipside, if the VNQ can get a close above the major level we are at this week, a setup for price to run to $124 could be in the cards in the not-so-distant future.
AMEX:VNQLong
by TradeVibez
Housing - Bubble PopIdea for Housing/REITs (VNQ): - The Housing Market will crash. I am short REITs. - Lumber rose 400% in a year during a global crisis and then dropped 50% in a month... This is not a correction, but a bubble pop. - China reining in commodity prices. They announce that they will soon release state stockpiles of metals: www.bloomberg.com - State firms ordered to curb overseas commodities exposure. - Fed continues MBS purchasing with QE, despite RRP skyrocketing. Why? The MBS and Housing bubble is critical, and it is ready to collapse. - Homebuyer sentiment drops to 10 year low: finance.yahoo.com - Homebuilder sentiment declines to reach a 10 month low (NAHB): news.yahoo.com - Housing prices being speculated such that locals are priced out of the market. Institutional investors and State-backed institutions buy up neighborhoods as they seek yield in an overheated global market. - The Credit Cycle has turned down, and the liquidity flows have been shut off. Institutions can no longer bid up their own assets. - As commodities prices crash, it will become cheaper to build a house than to buy one off the market, leading to increasing supply and decreasing demand. - When housing no longer provides yield, institutions will dump their assets onto the market and prices will crater. - MBS's and Lumber leading the crash, the REITs will soon get the hint. GLHF - DPT
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AMEX:VNQShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
41
SHORT VNQ, GET OUT WHILE YOU CANI have been tracking this ETF for a long period of time. We just broke one-year resistance and clear evidence on the fib retracement (specifically level 0.5) shows that the price was weakening. Technicals aside, there is no reason as to why this should move upwards. This pandemic has taken out firms with high leverage, left more than 25 million Americans jobless, and monetary policy hasn't been as effective because people haven't been going out. Not only that, but the government will also now have to think twice about their spending, as our debt has dramatically increased this year accompanied by a significant drop in tax revenue. Consumers have less income and are looking towards their savings to live through this pandemic. As we move to reopen, firms will look to deleverage and cut spending. This means that unemployment will most certainly not go back to its previous levels anytime soon and the average American will be in no position to take in debt in the form of a mortgage. I'd even argue to some extent that many will look to sell their homes. So how does this relate to VNQ? Home prices haven't adjusted because a decrease in supply helped remedy the decrease in demand. If you analyze active listing for the months of April, you will see that in almost every market, there has been a significantly smaller number of homes being listed. Hence, there have been fewer homes being sold at the price pre-virus. These price levels were already thought to be reaching a bubble, but with this sudden change in demand, these prices will correct most certainly. As we look to reopen, people will look to sell their houses. Realtors will push people to sell their homes. This increase in supply accompanied by the withstanding lack of demand will drive housing prices all the way down. I expect we will see these prices fall in areas with typically less demand than others first. Looking at listings in suburban areas, we are already seeing sellers change listings and drop their price, with still no buyer. It is still early to get out as prices haven't adjusted and many cities haven't reopened. Now, residential real estate accounts for 14.53% of VNQ. The problem lies in commercial real estate, 40.48% of VNQ. As said before, firms will want to deleverage and cut spending. Not only that, but offices will be dead anytime soon as many companies will want to remain online for the next quarter or two. The only downside will have to do with hospitals and clinics, but as we flatten the curve, the need for hospitals will not be any larger than the need for them a month or two ago. Regarding specialized REITs, there are going to be numbers of people that will not be able to pay rent or will find the price of rent too high in comparison to their income. All in all, all we can see is red! Hopefully, this doesn't truly occur because many will be hurt by this crash, but it is hard not to warn against the inevitable.
AMEX:VNQShort
by FrancescoChiappe