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Volaility

July VX Futures Rollover: M1 / August M2 to August M1 Roll YieldJuly Protection for Volatility was taken up to Sell M1 as we begin to see M2 (August) uptake 100% of the VXX M1+M2. Settlement will have, at minimum 98% front loaded into August M1. There will be the ever present Gap to close as there is every month. As the CASH VIX and July Contract converge for settlement, the Indices should range. We are looking for 12.30s to 15.50 as the Buy to Open range, but will adjust as necessary should the range fail. We are in the middle of Summer with a number of important Events setting up. Anticipating a large reaction to the undercurrent of RISKS. The VX Complex is the primary guidance for our setups and positions. We are approaching settlement - Thursday, Friday and the following Monday will provide a clear Trend for the short term. We anticipate a large decline in August through October. A Trade Plan is required as there are enormous "what if's" ever-present.
CBOE:VXN2021Short
by HK_L61
Crypto Trading 101: ATR The Ultimate Volatility FilterHave you made a lot of profit during a trend, only to lose it during a range? With Cryptohopper’s Average True Range (ATR) indicator, you can now safely avoid ranges and only trade the profitable trends. Without further due, let’s take a closer look at the ATR! Average True Range The Average True Range indicator (ATR) is a volatility indicator that increases and decreases in value to reflect the changing volatility of the market. For example, when the market is ranging, the ATR will have a relatively low value, while a high value indicates the opposite. This indicator can be used as a filter for trend-following or momentum indicators. Here at Cryptohopper, we have taken this indicator a step further and added an exponential moving average (EMA) to the ATR to generate volatility confirmation signals on the crossovers between the ATR and the EMA. Within this system, a signal will be created when the ATR crosses the EMA upwards, indicating increased volatility. Another confirmation is generated when the ATR crosses the EMA downwards, displaying decreased volatility. To make the ATR easier to spot visually, our team also added a green cloud for the periods with increased volatility and a red cloud for the periods with decreased volatility. The ATR can work well with both momentum and trend-following indicator, so let’s take a look at what happens when we pair it with an indicator that has both components! Moving Average Convergence Divergence The Moving Average Convergence Trend (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator which generates signals on the crossover of two exponential moving averages. When the histogram turns green, a bullish crossover has taken place, and thus a buy signal is given, and when the histogram turns red a bearish crossover has taken place and a sell signal is given. When you combine the MACD with the ATR, you will trade only when the MACD generates a buy signal, and the ATR confirms the volatility as displayed by the blue line on the graph. We have used the following settings in our display of this strategy: Take profit 3% Stop-loss 2%
Long
by cryptohopper
FOMC Madness: volatility risesPowell rocked the markets yesterday: “Let me be clear: What I said was it’s not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts. I didn’t say it’s just one or anything like that. When you think about rate-cutting cycles, they go on for a long time and the committee’s not seeing that. Not seeing us in that place. You would do that if you saw real economic weakness and you thought that the federal funds rate needed to be cut a lot. That’s not what we’re seeing.” But is a 25 basis point cut meaningful in the long run? Markets wanted further easing from the Fed yesterday. Bond traders aren’t as confident a “mid-cycle adjustment” in rates will be enough to keep the economy afloat. Volatility: We saw a -2SD plunge in response. Volatility is back. Hopefully it continues higher from here and lasts at least a few days. VIX reached 16 handle. This ain't over boys. (Normalizing back to the decade average at 17% is still almost 3 weeks late at this point. ) The great thing about trading options strategies is we can hedge this market madness. USD/DXY: This morning has the dollar higher and has got everyone talking. You'd think lower rates are bad for the USD. With more rate cuts on the way, it seems like an unexpected USD move. Perhaps markets priced in too many cuts and are now backtracking. Gold: This alternative asset class hasn't been immune to the vol. A big move in /GC overnight down 2%. Gold bugs coming back in recent hours. Bonds: Treasury yields took another plunge today. The bond yield curve is inverted at the 10y-3mo spread. The 2- to 10-year spread, one of the most closely watched indicators of impending recessions, shrank to the narrowest since March. It is not inverted at the moment, but it ain't bullish when it finally does. Other data: Weekly jobless claims higher than expected 215k vs 214k expected This month, the regional surveys point to further weakening in U.S. manufacturing. US July ISM manufacturing index 51.2 vs 52.0 expected. Black swans still lurking everywhere; Chinese forces building on the HK border. North Korea says it tested crucial new rocket launch system and fired missiles for second time in a week. We continue to watch for opportunities in volatility selling on the main indexes.
AMEX:SPY
by dime
2
No frost in BrazilSeems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out. Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions. Quite oversold and we saw sell signals on RSI and Stochastik a while ago. Also, the 5 hour chart will provide with a sell signal, which has been a superb indicator of short term price action (5-10 days). I am short via 1x2 calendar put spreads, long the 135s in Q and short the 125s in U and various other like this. As we move lower, option vega will come in and provide some nice profits. Also, selling the Sep (U16) contract provides with some good premium as this is considered the frost month. Looking at futures spreads, they have been weak the past two trading sessions and also foreshadow price action. Support at 134, then nothing until 125
KShort
by mjhillpp
5
Generated buy/cover signals on RSI StochastikGold bounced off of the support area for now Light volume during recent bounce indicates this is a retracement in the downtrend --> I threw in some Fibs to indicate where overhead resistance lies. Resistance at: - 7 day MA (currently there); a break would suggest the 20 day MA or the 38% FIb as target (1240ish) - 23% Fib at 1224, 38% Fib at 1240 Overall: the lack of volume on the bounce indicates the lows might be tested again as the downtrend is still prevailing. Took advantage of the break the last 5 days, but covering my short puts now I dont have any sells signals yet, hence I am not doing anything until I see some
COMEX:GC1!
by mjhillpp