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Weekly Volatility SnapshotGood Morning -- I hope everyone had a good week of trading ranges -- although short, we saw some VOLATILITY . Here we will step back with the year-to-date TVC:VIX in the background as we look towards a fresh week trading within the broader market ranges. Let us begin -- Last week the S&P500 -- with the SP:SPX gapped up opening into strength of a short week at $6,007.46 and wicking up to $6,050.83 only to sell off during U.S. wartime engagement threats within the news cycle, closing the weeks range at $5,984.57. This provided a move of $96.96 and is most comparative to what IV (16.18%) stated entering last week -- that was predicting a range of +/- $101.24. Now, looking towards this week -- IV (16.34%) is nearly unchanged as HV10 (9.75%) is showing a 'strength of IV' lowering at only 60% currently. IV within the yearly spectrum sits with an IVp of 74% -- fairly expensive as this can show the majority of money is spending up to protect downside uncertainties. Understandable of course. Our long-term trending volatility of HV63 (30.25%) is showing a 'strength of IV' at 185% which is correlating to an implied move of +/- $188.98 for the week. This is an advantage if reached of $86.90 over stated IV. A massive premium capture potential. With the MACRO news cycle pointing EXTREMELY NEGATIVE, I will be watching for volatility expansion. I believe futures will open up gapping into quarterly marks -- this is just my humble opinion of course. I see the opposite of last week happening, where we gap down and run up into the week. I don't hold a swing position, just an observation that psychologically retail will flip bearish on wartime news with a massive gap down, only to get trapped as broader markets expand upwards into the week. That's all for now. Everyone have a good week trading ranges, and I will see you Saturday to review! As always, know you ABCs and stay hedged for whatever your bias may be! CHEERS
CBOE:VIX
by splitmyIVandmelt
4
Bank of America: Potential BreakoutBank of America squeezed into a range, and now it may be breaking out. The first pattern on today’s chart is $44.84, the high on March 4 as the megabank gapped lower. It spent more than a month pushing against that level while making higher lows. The resulting ascending triangle is a potentially bullish continuation pattern. Second, BAC closed above the resistance on Friday and is now potentially entering the gap from March 4. Is a breakout underway? Third, Bollinger Bandwidth has narrowed. That may create potential for prices to expand following a period of compression. Next, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained above the 21-day EMA. Prices have also held above their 200-day simple moving average. Those signals may reflect bullishness in the short and long terms. Finally, BAC is an active underlier in the options market. Its 122,000 average daily contracts in the last month rank 23rd in the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data. That could help traders take positions with calls and puts. Check out TradingView's The Leap competition sponsored by TradeStation. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See www.TradeStation.com . Visit www.TradeStation.com for full details on the costs and fees associated with options. Margin trading involves risks, and it is important that you fully understand those risks before trading on margin. The Margin Disclosure Statement outlines many of those risks, including that you can lose more funds than you deposit in your margin account; your brokerage firm can force the sale of securities in your account; your brokerage firm can sell your securities without contacting you; and you are not entitled to an extension of time on a margin call. Review the Margin Disclosure Statement at www.TradeStation.com . TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NYSE:BAC
by TradeStation
Jade Lizard on PLTR - My 53DTE Summer Theta PlayMany of you — and yes, I see you in my DMs 😄 — are trading PLTR, whether using LEAPS, wheeling, or covered calls. I took a closer look. And guess what? 📈 After a strong move higher, PLTR was rejected right at the $143 call wall — pretty much all cumulative expiries cluster resistance there Using the GEX Profile indicator, scanning all expirations: After a brief dip, the market is repositioning bullish Squeeze zone extends up to 150 The most distant GEX level is sitting at 160 On the downside, 130 is firm support, with some presence even at 120 — the market isn’t pricing in much risk below that 📉 From a technical standpoint: We’re near all-time highs 125 (previous ATH) and 100 are key support levels The OTM delta curve through August is wide, and the call side is paying well — with a current call pricing skew 🔬 IVx is at 57, trending lower + call pricing skew📉 IV Rank isn't particularly high, but the directional IVx matters more here 💡 Summer Theta Play: Jade Lizard on PLTR Since I’ll be traveling this summer and don’t want to micromanage trades, I looked for something low-touch and high-confidence — and revisited an old favorite: the Jade Lizard. If you're not familiar with the strategy, I recommend checking out Tastytrade's links and videos on Jade Lizards. 🔹 Why this setup? Breakeven sits near $100, even with no management On TastyTrade margin:~$1800 initial margin ~$830 max profit 53 DTE — plenty of time for theta to work Earnings hit in August — I plan to close before then Covers all bullish GEX resistance zones Quickly turns profitable if IV doesn’t spike Highly adjustable if needed My conclusion: this strategy covers a much broader range than what the current GEX Profile shows across all expirations — so by my standards, I consider this to be a relatively lower-risk setup compared to most other symbols right now with similar theta strategies. 🔧 How would I adjust if needed? If price moves up: I’d roll the short put up to collect additional credit Hold the call vertical as long as the curve supports it If price drops: Transition into a put ratio spread Either extend or remove the call vertical depending on conditions 🛑 What’s the cut loss plan? I have about 20% wiggle room on the upside, so I’m not too worried — but if price rips through 160 quickly, I’ll have to consider early closure. If that happens, the decision depends on time: If late in the cycle with low DTE:→ Take a small loss & roll out to next month for credit If early with lots of DTE remaining:→ Consider converting to a butterfly, pushing out the call vertical for a small debit→ Offset this with credit from rolling the put upward As always — stay sharp, manage your risk, and may the profit be with you. See you next week!– Greg @ TanukiTrade
NASDAQ:PLTR
by TanukiTrade
US 100 – Potential For Further Geo-Political Volatility AheadEarly trading this Monday morning has been dominated by President Trump's surprise weekend decision to launch airstrikes on three nuclear sites in Iran, which may increase the potential for a wider conflict in the Middle East. After closing at 21,652 on Friday, this news led the US 100 to a gap open lower to 21,375 in early Asian trading, however, this drop didn't last long and the index has since recovered to trade back up to 21600 again at the time of writing (0800 BST). Looking forward, the focus for traders may continue to be on Iran's next move. So far they have confined their retaliation to missile attacks on Israel, but they did issue a statement saying they reserve all options to defend themselves. Fresh attacks on US bases in the region, or deciding to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping supply route for Oil and Gas from the region, may undermine risk sentiment which could lead to renewed selling of the US 100, while any options suggesting a potential quicker resolution to this conflict may be seized upon by traders to push the index back up to higher levels seen in the middle of last week. There are scheduled events released across the week that may also be relevant, these include the testimony of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell to congress at 1500 BST on Tuesday and Wednesday, as well as the next US PCE Index update at 1330 BST on Friday, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Technical Update: Assessing Support and Resistance Levels Escalation of hostilities in the middle east over the weekend may leave traders uncertain as to the direction of the next price activity for the US 100 moving forward. However, technical analysis can help to outline potential support and resistance levels, which if broken to the up or downside, might offer clues on where the index may move. Potential Support Levels: Looking at the chart of the US 100 index below, it could be argued that Monday’s lower opening level has already tested what traders may be viewing as support at 21373. This level is equal to half the May 23rd to June 11th phase of price strength. Having seen an initial recovery following tests of this 21373 level, it may now have been strengthened as a support focus. This means closing breaks below 21373, while not a guarantee of further price declines, may suggest tests of the next support at 20666, which is the May 23rd price low, even 20360, the 38% Fibonacci retracement level, could be possible. Potential Resistance Levels: In terms of resistance levels to monitor this week, as the chart shows, Friday’s activity did see a sell-off from its 21905 session high. This confirms sellers have been active at this level previously and may prove to be again. As such, traders may now be watching the defence of this 21905 level on a closing basis, as breaks above this resistance may now be required to see attempts to push to higher levels which may include a challenge of resistance at 22074, the June 11th session upside extreme, possibly then 2226, the February 18th high. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Pepperstone
Trading the Impulse Rally Retracement — Price and Time Symmetry The Stop Loss Triangle is back! This time with BITSTAMP:BTCUSD coming off its recent impulse rally. For those of you that aren’t familiar with my strategy — let me start from the beginning… This concept involves positioning against the opposing decline in price and time as a precursor to our theoretical projection. If the underlying enters our predetermined faded cross-section, the stop loss is triggered to prevent sideways consolidation and the erosion of contract premiums or leverage decay. This inherently ‘sclene’ triangle is constructed by drawing a straight trend line through the bottoming reversal candle and the furthest projection in price and time symmetry (78.6%) of the retracement. Once connected, draw a vertically positioned straight line from the highest or lowest point in the previously identified retracement to the bottom reversal candle area once again. To create a ‘right triangle’, now turn 90 degrees towards the final point, which is determined by the nearest projection in price and time symmetry (38.2%). This allows time after the imposed price and time date, yet not enough for premium or leverage decay to become significant. In its entirety, this forms the stop loss triangle. I encourage my followers to identify and explore the system on their own. As always, feel free to ask me anything related to it. We’ll follow along and you’ll be amazed at the precision of Fibonacci symmetry. CHEERS
Short
by splitmyIVandmelt
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/24/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025 - PR High: 22217.00 - PR Low: 22065.75 - NZ Spread: 337.75 Key scheduled economic events: 10:00 | CB Consumer Confidence - Fed Chair Powell Testifies Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 6/24) - Session Open ATR: 384.68 - Volume: 45K - Open Int: 240K - Trend Grade: Neutral - From BA ATH: -2.8% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22096 - Mid: 20383 - Short: 19246 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2025
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/23/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025 - PR High: 21787.00 - PR Low: 21566.75 - NZ Spread: 491.75 Key scheduled economic events: 09:45 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI - S&P Global Services PMI 10:00 | Existing Home Sales Open weekend gap down ~0.33% Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 6/23) - Session Open ATR: 382.81 - Volume: 38K - Open Int: 234K - Trend Grade: Neutral - From BA ATH: -4.8% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22096 - Mid: 20383 - Short: 19246 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2025
by mv3trader5
Weekly Volatility Snapshot Good Evening -- Here we are again looking down the barrel of another week tracking the volatility within the broader markets! Let us begin -- Last week, the TVC:VIX was trending down as the S&P500 rotated upwards making it within 1.43% of highs, before selling off on war conflict news to end the week -- spiking the VIX again. We are now 114 days into the correction with uncertainty still being the only thing that is defined. However, it does seem that buyers are stepping in during these times of selling off. But, without lifting the uncertainty of trade deals and deadlines or negative news cycles, we could just be locking in a lower high and within another bear market phase. As we trend into the 2nd half of June, the SP:SPX has an IV (16.18%) entering the week trending 72% to it's yearly range suggesting slightly expensive premium. This is up from 52% IVp last week. Now in comparison to what is happening, HV10 (9.94%) is showing a lower volatility range than stated IV by -6.24%. This can be important when considering a premium disadvantage with a consolidating VIX under already expensive premium. The 'strength of IV' here is 61% -- and in turn my weighted implied ranges for the week are $5,914.78 - $6,039.16. If there happens to be a volatility spike this week due to anything out of the blue, we will find our range expanded to long-term trending means of quarterly values, that being HV63 (30.39%). This would create a 'strength of IV' of 188% and a massive spike in the VIX -- respectfully these weighted implied ranges would be $5,786.82 - $6,161.12. As always, I hope you enjoy the weekly write up and have a great week of trading ranges! Know you ABCs and REMEMBER stay hedged people. Till next week, CHEERS.
TVC:VIX
by splitmyIVandmelt
Nvidia - Weekly Volatility SnapshotGood Afternoon! Let's talk NASDAQ:NVDA Last week we saw HV10 (24.96%) increase above HV21 (23.67%) after starting what could be a regression towards HV63 (39.13%). IV (37.37%) entering this week reflects within 6% of it's sliding yearly lows and resonating around quarterly means. This could be showing a fair prediction to the regression potential and a volatility spike. Here, the RSI has room but is elevated and hinged down with the MACD crossed red -- lagging indicators showing trend reversal. If bi-weekly values can find regression to quarterly; the implied range I would be watching is $135.47 - $148.47 with IV increasing affecting premium positively. If the grind up continues slowly, expect IV to melt and be watching for contracting HV10 ranges between $137.82 - $146.12 -- Keep an eye on the news, it will ever affect the broader markets and any underlying within. Follow along through the week as we track our volatility prediction -- I will pull the charts back in at the end of the week to review! CHEERS!
NASDAQ:NVDA
by splitmyIVandmelt
[06/16] Weekly GEX Roadmap - Diagonal Spreads or Put Hedges?📊 Weekly GEX Map (SPX) This week’s GEX profile looks nearly identical to last week: Positive bias above 6020 up to 6100 But a sticky chop zone remains from 5975 to 6020 Below 5950? That’s where things get interesting… ⚠️ What Happens If 5950 Fails? In that case - welcome to negative gamma territory: Delta becomes unstable → fast, erratic moves Gamma loses influence → hedging effectiveness drops Dealer hedging lags → market makers chase, not lead Vega + theta distort readings → charm decay accelerates Result: GEX zones lose clarity. Pinning breaks down. Reactions become nonlinear and emotional. If we drop below 5950, we might see acceleration instead of stabilization — despite the positive GEX profile. 💡 Trade Idea of the Week – With Caution If not for Wednesday's macro risk (Fed rate decision), I'd suggest a bullish diagonal spread toward 6100–6150: Limited downside Defined risk Covers the full squeeze zone But with FOMC looming, I'd only hold this trade until Thursday and close once the debit doubles or earlier. 🧨 Macro + Geo Risks Fed is priced for “no move” → any surprise = volatility spike Rising tensions with Iran → oil and futures could react violently Recommendation : Avoid OIL this week, especially futures and naked strategies 🛡️ Prefer Downside Protection? If you expect weakness on SPX weekly: Consider a put debit spread with the short leg at 5950, where the second strongest Put Support sits. This type of structure can offer up to 6:1 reward-to-risk, making it one of the most efficient bearish hedges for this week. If you enjoyed the above breakdown, feel free to check out my previous weekly analyses or explore my tools as well. Until next time – Trade what you see, not what you hope, – Greg @ TanukiTrade
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/20/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025 - PR High: 21930.25 - PR Low: 21745.75 - NZ Spread: 412.0 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Session Open Stats (As of 1:05 AM 6/20) - Session Open ATR: 377.21 - Volume: 155K - Open Int: 230K - Trend Grade: Neutral - From BA ATH: -4.2% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22096 - Mid: 20383 - Short: 19246 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2025
by mv3trader5
German 40 Index – Sentiment Facing a Sterm TestSince hitting its most recent all time high of 24469 on June 5th the Germany 40 index has experienced some downside pressure as traders have moved to lock in profits on a very strong start to the year. This move has the potential to turn June into the worst monthly performance of 2025 so far, although there is still another 8 trading days to go. This short-term shift in sentiment has been related to a combination of factors. The new all time high of 24469 hit on June 5th coincided with the latest ECB interest rate cut. However, at that meeting Madame Lagarde indicated in the press conference that more data on the path of inflation, trade tariffs with the US and Eurozone growth would be required before the ECB would consider cutting interest rates again. This was followed by comments and headlines which suggested that progress on a trade deal between the US and EU was slow and would potentially continue past the original July 9th pause deadline set by President Trump. Then in the last week sentiment has been rocked further by the spike in Oil prices driven by an escalating conflict between Israel and Iran that has seen them trade missile attacks for 7 straight days, alongside a growing concern that the US may also be seriously considering entering a direct conflict with Iran after Bloomberg reported yesterday that senior US officials are preparing for a possible strike in the coming days. At the time of writing (0700 BST) this leaves the Germany 40 trading at 1 month lows around 23142 and suggests a consideration of the technical outlook, including potential support and resistance levels could be useful. Technical Update: Watching 23235 Last Correction Low Having posted a new all-time high on June 5th at 24469, a more extended price correction has developed in the Germany 40 index. Interestingly, as the chart below shows, this phase of weakness has seen closing breaks under what some might have anticipated would be support, marked by the Bollinger mid-average (currently 23862). In previous reports, we have suggested that traders may use the Bollinger mid-average as an indicator of the possible direction of the current price trend. If the mid-average is rising with prices above it, the trend may be classed as an uptrend, while if the mid-average is falling with price activity below it, a downtrend might be in place. As the chart shows, following the latest breaks below the mid-average, this has now turned lower, and traders might now be focusing on the possibilities for an extended phase of price weakness. Let's consider the possible support or resistance levels that could be worthwhile for traders to focus on. Potential Support Levels: With Thursday’s initial price activity so far seeing further selling pressure, as the chart below shows, it might be suggested the next relevant support is already currently being tested with moves below 23235. This level is equal to the last correction low posted on May 23rd at 23235. Traders might now be watching how this 23235 low support is defended on a closing basis over coming sessions, as confirmed breaks lower, while no guarantee of deeper price declines, might skew risks towards tests of the next potential support at 22303, which is equal to the 38.2% retracement of April 7th to June 5th strength. Potential Resistance Levels: Since the June 5th all-time high, an extended decline in price has already been seen, so a reactive recovery might be a possibility. However, having recently seen the mid-average turn lower, closing breaks back above its current 23862 level might now be required to trigger a phase of price recovery. While much will depend on future price trends and market sentiment, if successful upside breaks above the 23862 mid-average are seen, it might lead to tests of 24469 which is the June 5th all-time high. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40
by Pepperstone
4
Best Free Volatility Indicator on TradingView for Gold Forex This free technical indicator will help you easily measure the market volatility on Forex, Gold or any other market. It will show you when the market is quiet , when it's active and when it's dangerous . We will go through the settings of this indicator, and you will learn how to set it up on TradingView. Historical Volatility Indicator This technical indicator is called Historical Volatility. It is absolutely free and available on TradingView, MetaTrader 4/5 and other popular trading terminals. TradingView Setup Let me show you how to find it on TradingView and add it to your price chart. Open a technical price chart on TradingView and open the "Indicators" menu (you will find it at the top of the screen). Search "Historical Volatility" and click on it. It will automatically appear on your chart. "Length" parameter will define how many candles the indicator will take for measuring the average volatility. (I recommend keeping the default number, but if you need longer/shorter-term volatility, you can play with that) Timeframe drop-down list defines what time frame the indicator takes for measuring the volatility. (I recommend choosing a daily timeframe) And keep the checkboxes unchanged . How to Use the Indicator Now, let me show you how to use it properly. Wider the indicator and analyse its movement at least for the last 4 months. Find the volatility range - its low levels will be based on the lower boundary of the range, high levels will be based on its upper boundary. This is an example of such a range on USDCAD pair. When the volatility stays within the range, it is your safe time to trade. When volatility approaches its lows, it may indicate that the market might be slow . Highs of the range imply that the market is very active In-between will mean a healthy market. The Extremes The violation of a volatility range to the downside is the signal that the market is very slow . This would be the recommended period to not trade because of high chance of occurrence of fakeouts. An upward breakout of a voliatlity range is the signal of the extreme volatility . It will signify that the market is unstable , and it will be better to let it calm down before placing any trade. Volatility Analysis That is how a complete volatility analysis should look. At the moment, volatility reached extreme levels on CADJPY pair. The best strategy will be to wait till it returns within the range. Remember This With the current geopolitical uncertainty and trade wars, market volatility reaches the extreme levels. Such a volatility is very dangerous , especially for newbie traders. Historical volatility technical indicator will help you to easily spot the best period for trading and the moment when it is better to stay away. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
9
Trading the VIX – Part 2Trading the VIX – Part 2: VIX ETPs and Strategic Applications In Part 1 of this series, we explored the structure of VIX Futures, focusing on the roll-down effect in a contango VIX futures curve—common in calm market conditions. In Part 2, we turn our attention to VIX-related Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs)—specifically, the popular and liquid: • VXX – unleveraged long VIX ETP • UVXY – leveraged long VIX ETP • SVXY – inverse VIX ETP Each of these products is based on a specific VIX futures strategy, the “S&P500 VIX Short Term Futures Index” , which is maintained by S&P, Dow Jones (the “SPDJ-Index”). The Fact Sheet and Methodology can be obtained from the S&P Global website. What is the SPDJ Index that these ETPs track? The SPDJ-Index is a strategy index that maintains a rolling long position in the first- and second-month VIX futures to maintain a constant 30-day weighted average maturity. Key Features of the SPDJ Index: • Starts with 100% exposure to VX1 (the front-month future) when it’s 30 days from expiration. • Gradually it rolls from VX1 to VX2 (next-month future) each day to maintain a 30-day average expiration. • At all times, the index is long either one or both VX1 and VX2, with exposure shifting daily from VX1 to VX2. • This roll mechanism causes value erosion in contango (normal markets) and gains in backwardation (during volatility spikes). • Since contango is the dominant market state, the index loses value over time—with occasional short-lived gains during sharp volatility increases. Importantly, the SPDJ Index does not represent the VIX or any other volatility level, it simply reflects the value of this futures-based rolling strategy. ________________________________________ Breakdown of the ETPs: VXX, UVXY, and SVXY VXX – Long SPDJ Index (1x) • Tracks the SPDJ Index directly • Suffers from the roll-down drag in contango environments. • Useful only for short-term exposure during expected volatility spikes. • Timing for long positions is critical UVXY – Leveraged Long (Currently +1.5x) • Replicates a strategy that maintains a constant leverage of 1.5 to the SPDJ Index. • Formerly +2x leverage; reduced in April 2024. • Highly sensitive to VIX moves; underperforms long term due to both roll-down drag and leverage decay (see below). Timing for long positions is even more important than for the VXX. SVXY – Inverse (-0.5x) • Replicates a strategy that maintains a constant exposure of -0.5 to the SPDJ Index. • Benefits from falling VIX levels as well as from contango in the front part of the VIX futures curve. • Formerly -1x before the Feb 2018 volatility spike triggered massive losses (XIV, a competing ETP, collapsed at that time). • Performs well in calm conditions but is vulnerable to sharp volatility spikes. Leveraged & Inverse ETPs – Important Notes affecting the UVXY and SVXY (without going into details): • Daily resetting for the replicating strategies to maintain constant exposure factors (different from 1x) are pro-cyclical and can cause compounding errors, specifically in turbulent markets (e.g. Feb 2018). • The real volatility of the VIX futures itself acts as a drag on returns, independent of the index’s direction. • Risk management is essential—especially with inverse products like SVXY. All three of these ETPs track a VIX futures strategy, they are not levered or unlevered versions of the original VIX index. Each of these ETPs benefits from liquid option markets, enhancing the toolkit for volatility trading. Trading Strategies Using VIX ETPs Here are several practical approaches to trading these products: VXX and UVXY • Best used for short-term trades aiming to capture volatility spikes. • Options strategies such as zero-cost collars, vertical and calendar spreads can help mitigate the challenge of precise timing. • Avoid long-term holds due to erosion from roll-down and leverage decay (see historical performance!). SVXY – The Carry Trade Proxy • Ideal for profiting from prolonged calm periods and the contango structure. • Acts like a carry trade, offering a positive drift—but must be paired with robust stop-loss rules or exit strategy to guard against sharp spikes in volatility. Switching Strategies • Tactically rotate in/out of SVXY based on short-term volatility indicators. • One common signal: VIX9D crossing above or below VIX, i.e. long SVXY if VIX9D crosses under VIX, staying long while VIX9D < VIX, closing long SVXY position when VIX9D crosses over VIX. Some traders also use crossovers with VIX3M or the individual expirations of the VIX futures curve to manage entries. • Switching between SVXY and VXX based on crossover triggers through the VIX futures curve is often advertised, but very hard to get working in practice due to the importance of timing the VXX entry and exit – signals from the VIX curve may not signal VXX entries and exits timely enough. Term Structure-Based Combinations • Combine short VXX with long VXZ (an ETP tracking longer-dated VIX futures, balancing the 4th to 7th VIX contracts to achieve a constant expiration of 60days). • Weighting is determined by the Implied Volatility Term Structure (IVTS), calculated as VIX / VIX3M. This approach adjusts positions based on the shape of the VIX futures curve, indicated by the IVTS. For instance, when the VIX futures curve shifts from contango (where near-term futures are cheaper than longer-term ones) to backwardation (where near-term futures are more expensive), it involves reducing short positions in VXX and increasing long positions in VXZ. • This approach mimics the spirit of a calendar spread strategy in VIX futures and reflects the “S&P 500 Dynamic VIX Futures Index” , with weightings backed by research from Donninger (2011) and Sinclair (2013) - see performance chart and weighting-matrix enclosed in the introductory chart). ________________________________________ VIX Curves as Market Indicators Beyond trading, VIX instruments and their term structure are widely used as market sentiment gauges. For instance: Signs of Market Calm: • VIX9D < VIX • VIX < VIX3M • VIX < VX1 • VX1 < VX2 These relationships imply that short-term volatility is lower than longer-term expectations, indicating near-term calmness in markets, occasionally leading to market complacency. Traders and institutions use these signals to: • Adjust positioning in broad market indices • Determine hedging requirements • Evaluate suitability of selling naked options ________________________________________ Final Thoughts VIX ETPs offer a powerful toolkit for traders seeking to profit from or hedge against volatility. But they come with structural decay, leverage dynamics, and curve risk. Timing, strategy, and risk control are key.
CBOE:VXXEducation
by parsifaltrading
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/18/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025 - PR High: 21940.50 - PR Low: 21863.00 - NZ Spread: 173.50 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims 10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories 14:00 | FOMC Economic Projections - FOMC Statement - Fed Interest Rate Decision 14:30 | FOMC Press Conference AMP margins increase to 25% for expected FOMC volatility spike Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 6/18) - Session Open ATR: 375.35 - Volume: 31K - Open Int: 213K - Trend Grade: Neutral - From BA ATH: -3.8% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22096 - Mid: 20383 - Short: 19246 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2025Long
by mv3trader5
BITx - Weekly Volatility Snapshot Good Morning -- Happy Father's day to any dad's out there! Let's took a weekly look at CBOE:BITX -- our 2x leveraged BITSTAMP:BTCUSD fund. Last week, we saw a beautiful gap up to the upper HV63 implied ranges were profit was taken and accelerated selling begin. Our bi-weekly trending values have increased due to the increasing volatility. The weekly candle ended with some body to it, but was mostly flat due to the gap closing with a big wick up. Our IV (85.47%) entering the week is trending within 4% of the sliding yearly lows and seemingly increasing as it tracks near-term trending markets -- HV10 (70.04%) has increased from the movement last week +7.35% and is now +22.17% off sliding yearly lows. As the spring is uncoiling, and bi-weekly regresses towards quarterly means our premium capture erodes and our range expands. I love trading volatility and ranges. The 'strength of IV' here for HV10 is 82% -- so you have to account when positioning that the trending near-term volatility IS INCREASING but IS WEAKER than what is predicted. The 'strength of IV' here for HV63 is 101% -- showing that what is predicted is fairly valued to me on a regression scale. Please -- Pull my chart onto your layout and use my implied ranges and data, follow along through the week on your own screen as we track and measure the volatility -- let's get this conversation started! CHEERS
CBOE:BITXLong
by splitmyIVandmelt
2
Cisco Is Pushing a Generational HighCisco Systems has climbed as AI investment helps power growth, and some traders may think the move will continue. The first pattern on today’s chart is the February 13 peak of $66.50. It was the highest level since September 2000, when the dotcom bubble was deflating. The networking giant come within $0.14 of that level on June 9 and remains in close proximity. Is a breakout coming? (If CSCO were to clear this year’s peak, investors may next eye $82, its previous all-time high from March 2000.) Next consider the May 15 closing price of $64.26 following strong quarterly results. The stock probed below the level last week and bounced. That may suggest old resistance has become new support. Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has stayed above the 21-day EMA. Such a sequence may reflect a short-term uptrend. Finally, Bollinger Band Width has dropped as price moves narrow. Could that tightening price action open the door to price expansion? Check out TradingView's The Leap competition sponsored by TradeStation. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NASDAQ:CSCO
by TradeStation
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/17/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025 - PR High: 22177.25 - PR Low: 22065.25 - NZ Spread: 250.25 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Retail Sales (Core|MoM) Contract rollover week Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 6/17) - Session Open ATR: 385.81 - Volume: 47K - Open Int: 178K - Trend Grade: Neutral - From BA ATH: -3.5% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22096 - Mid: 20383 - Short: 19246 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2025
by mv3trader5
Oil (WTI) – Geo-Political Concerns Drive SentimentA quickly escalating conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran has seen Oil (WTI) volatility increase dramatically as the focus for traders has shifted overnight from worries about an on-going lack of demand due to a slowing global economy over to major supply concerns moving forward from this oil rich region. This shift has seen Oil trade from lows of 60.17 on May 30th, to an early Monday high of 76.31, as weekend attacks by Israel on Iran's energy infrastructure introduced more uncertainty at the start of this new trading week regarding Israel's future strategy in this conflict. Prices have since settled down and moved back towards 72.80 (0830 BST) at time of writing but looking forward traders may need to balance the potential for further escalation/duration of this conflict against extra Oil production/supply from OPEC+ and the US. Also important for Oil prices across the week could be the outcome of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision (Wed 1900 BST) and Press Conference (Wed 1930 BST). No change to interest rates is expected, but the updates from Fed policymakers to their inflation and interest rate expectations for the rest of 2025 could have a major impact on risk sentiment, the dollar and anticipated Oil demand. Technical Update: Utilising Bollinger Bands A rise in tensions in the Middle East last week prompted a sharp acceleration higher in the price of Oil. This saw price volatility increase, reflected by the widening upper and lower Bollinger bands and prices trading to levels last seen in late January 2025, as the chart below shows. Traders will now likely be wondering if this type of price strength can continue, or if prices can enter a correction phase, even possibly a more extended period of price weakness. Much will clearly depend on future market sentiment and price trends, and on any easing or escalation in geo-political tensions. However, with this in mind let's consider what may be the relevant support and resistance levels . Potential Resistance Levels: As the chart shows below, interestingly, last weeks price strength stalled against 75.99, which is equal to the February 3rd session high and with a setback in price developing from it so far today, this might be viewed by some as a potential first resistance. As such, while not a guarantee of further price strength, closing breaks above 75.99 may be a sign of continued upside momentum towards 81.01, which is the January 15th price high and a potential next resistance focus for traders. Potential Support Levels: After such a strong advance in price, it might be harder to establish support levels, although, Fibonacci retracement levels on the recent May 30th to June 16th upside move in price, might prove useful. These retracement levels are highlighted on the chart below. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the price strength stands at 70.12 and this might prove to be a possible first support focus, if price weakness is seen over coming days. Closing breaks below 70.12, if seen, may then lead to declines towards 66.32, the deeper 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE
by Pepperstone
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/16/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2025 - PR High: 21903.75 - PR Low: 21726.00 - NZ Spread: 396.75 No key scheduled economic events Contract rollover week Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM 6/16) - Session Open ATR: 382.14 - Volume: 18K - Open Int: 62K - Trend Grade: Neutral - From BA ATH: -4.1% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22096 - Mid: 20383 - Short: 19246 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2025
by mv3trader5