11/04 Weekly SPX Market Analysis with seamless GEX levelsThe U.S. presidential election is on November 5, and this week we can expect increased volatility due to the uncertainty. For options traders, one thing is certain: volatility will likely rise leading up to the election, peak around the results, and then gradually subside as the “fireworks” end. It’s essential to consider this in every trading decision.
While the current Implied Volatility (IVx) isn’t extremely high, the IV Rank (IVR) is quite strong at 41, and this is likely to remain due to the increasing uncertainty. Based on the blue OTM (Out of The Money) delta curves, the market is currently pricing in a strong downward movement for the week, aligning with the negative gamma zone and negative gamma profile. For a bullish shift, we would need a strong push above 5845 to enter positive gamma territory (HVL level is the battleneck).
⏩ The 5700 level is a key PUT support across multiple timeframes. If this level breaks, turbulence is expected, with increased downward movement likely to follow, first to 5650 and potentially down to 5600, where larger PUT gamma walls are located.
⏩ According to the 16-delta OTM curve, a close above the previous all-time high is less likely. If there’s a strong breakout to the upside, the positive gamma threshold stands at 5850, and above this, buyer pressure could extend up to 5925.
⏩ I consider the 5700-5845 range as a “chop zone,” where high volatility is expected this week. In this zone, bears and bulls will be in constant battle, and I do not expect a clear trend. I focused on Friday’s expiration in this analysis, as market outlooks remain highly uncertain ahead of the election.
The strong PUT pricing skew is a natural phenomenon and is expected to increase, especially since we are in a negative gamma zone. For December expirations, PUT options cost nearly twice as much as CALL options, as shown by our oscillator for 12/20 expiry.
There’s already ~6% IV backwardation between the 11/08 and 11/11 expirations, making this ideal for time spreads. However, caution is warranted—front-month PUT calendar and diagonal spreads can easily turn negative if front IV rises more than back IV.
Remember! It’s not mandatory to trade during highly uncertain periods! Staying out of the market is also a position, and sitting in cash is actually the safest choice, especially in a volatile week like this.
⏩ You can check my previous week's analysis, every one was accurate, I hope this one will useful too.
10/28 SPX
10/21 SPX
10/14 SPX
10/28 QQQ
10/14 QQQ
Volatility
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/7/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20923.50
- PR Low: 20889.00
- NZ Spread: 77.0
Key scheduled economic events
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
13:00 | Fed Interest Rate Decision
14:00 | FOMC Statement
14:30 | FOMC Press Conference
AMP Futures increased margin requirements overnight
- Broke above 20800 daily pivot
- Continuing to auction above previous session high
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 11/7)
- Weekend Gap: -0.13 (filled)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 310.36
- Volume: 24K
- Open Int: 262K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -1.3% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Three days after elections and one after FED cutStarting with #VIX the value decreased a lot after elections showing the decrease in investors fear
With less fear we can follow the #SPX #DX1! #BTC1! which strongly rise their value.
Commodites in general seems to had loss some points with Dollar strength, in this chart we can watch #GC1! and #BZ1! as benchmark
In the case of Brent we can see a double top even with line chart.
#US10Y decreased after 25bp cut nevertheless with Trump election US will probably activate more worldwide tariffs and this can lead to an increase in prices, and so the next couple months CPI will be a important measure to look at US economy in the future. So even it's decreasing and bonds are inversly to prices, I should keep an eye on it
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/8/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 21230.75
- PR Low: 21202.50
- NZ Spread: 63.25
No key scheduled economic events
Floating auction in new ATHs
- AMP Futures margins restored to normal
Session Open Stats (As of 1:55 AM 11/8)
- Weekend Gap: -0.13 (filled)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 313.43
- Volume: 22K
- Open Int: 270K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -0.1% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
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NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/6/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20364.75
- PR Low: 20335.75
- NZ Spread: 65.0
Key scheduled economic events
10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories
13:00 | 30-Year Bond Auction
High vol session open, 317 point (~1.43%) range
- AMP temp margin increase remains in place for expected volatility
- Strong auction lift back towards 20800 pivot
Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM 11/6)
- Weekend Gap: -0.13 (filled)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 307.30
- Volume: 81K
- Open Int: 251K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -2.9% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
All-Time High Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Future Bitcoin's mining difficulty has recently reached a new all-time high, a significant milestone that underscores the network's growing security and resilience. This metric, which adjusts every 2016 blocks to maintain a consistent block generation time of approximately 10 minutes, reflects the increasing computational power dedicated to securing the Bitcoin network.
What Does Increased Mining Difficulty Mean?
• Enhanced Network Security: A higher mining difficulty implies that it becomes increasingly challenging for malicious actors to launch attacks like 51% attacks. This strengthens the network's security and protects its integrity.
• Increased Energy Consumption: As more miners join the network to compete for block rewards, energy consumption associated with Bitcoin mining tends to rise. This has sparked debates about the environmental impact of the network.
• Price Volatility: Increased mining difficulty can influence Bitcoin's price volatility. A surge in mining difficulty may lead to price fluctuations as miners adjust their operations to maintain profitability.
Bitcoin Open Interest Surges Ahead of Elections
In the lead-up to the U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin's open interest has seen a significant uptick. Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding futures contracts on a particular asset. A rising open interest indicates increased market activity and potential for heightened price volatility.
Bitcoin Breaks Above $70K
Bitcoin's recent surge above the $70,000 mark has generated considerable excitement and speculation. This milestone highlights the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin as a store of value and a hedge against inflation. However, it's important to note that such rapid price movements can be accompanied by periods of volatility.
"Calm Before the Storm": Anticipating Volatility
The term "calm before the storm" is often used to describe a period of relative tranquility before a significant event. In the context of Bitcoin, it suggests that the current period of relative price stability may precede a period of increased volatility.
Several factors could contribute to this anticipated volatility:
• Election Uncertainty: The outcome of the U.S. presidential election could have a significant impact on global financial markets, including the cryptocurrency market.
• Regulatory Developments: Changes in regulatory policies can influence the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
• Market Sentiment: Shifts in market sentiment, driven by news events, social media trends, or economic indicators, can lead to rapid price fluctuations.
Navigating the Volatile Market
Given the potential for increased volatility, investors and traders must adopt a cautious approach. Here are some tips for navigating the volatile Bitcoin market:
• Do Your Research: Stay informed about the latest news and developments in the cryptocurrency market.
• Diversify Your Portfolio: Spread your investments across different assets to reduce risk.
• Set Stop-Loss Orders: Use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses.
• Manage Your Risk: Avoid overtrading and stick to a well-defined trading strategy.
• Stay Patient: The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility. It's important to maintain a long-term perspective and avoid making impulsive decisions.
In conclusion, Bitcoin's increasing mining difficulty, surging open interest, and recent price surge highlight the dynamic nature of the cryptocurrency market. While the potential for volatility remains, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive, driven by its underlying technology and growing institutional adoption.
Time for manufacturing companies to get paidmanufacturing companies for semi conductors showed a while ago that the direction of semi chip stocks was headed south.
Now, I see a great long term set up for the companies that actually make the parts. After these pop off with IWM soon, then mega cap stocks will see a push up.
Target 1 is $50
Target 2 is $55
May see a pull back right after this and then the rally
Why Trading Sessions Matter in Forex: Key OverlapsThe Forex market is open 24 hours a day during the weekdays, allowing traders flexibility to trade at any time. However, understanding the best times to trade is essential for effective trading. The market is divided into four main sessions: Sydney, Tokyo, London, and New York, each corresponding to peak activity in key financial centers. Using a Forex Market Time Zone Converter can help traders determine which sessions are active in their local time, making it easier to plan around high-liquidity periods.
Although the market is technically always open, not all trading times are equally profitable. Higher trading volume, which generally occurs during session overlaps, creates ideal conditions for traders. For example, the overlap of the London and New York sessions sees the highest volume, with more than 50% of daily trades occurring in these two centers. Trading at this time, especially with currency pairs like GBP/USD, can lead to tighter spreads and quicker order execution, reducing slippage and increasing the likelihood of profitable trades. Similarly, trading AUD/JPY during the Asian session, when the Tokyo market is active, is advantageous due to higher trading activity for these currencies.
Conversely, trading during times when only one session is active, such as during the Sydney session alone, can result in wider spreads and less market movement, making it harder to achieve profitable trades. Planning trades around high-activity sessions and overlaps is key to effective forex trading.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/5/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20132.00
- PR Low: 20084.75
- NZ Spread: 105.75
Key scheduled economic events
05:00 | U.S. Presidential Election
09:45 | S&P Global Services PMI
10:00 | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
13:00 | 10-Year Note Auction
AMP raised margins for expected overnight volatility
- Inside daily print
- Previous session closed virtually unchanged
Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 11/5)
- Weekend Gap: -0.13 (filled)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 288.45
- Volume: 21K
- Open Int: 252K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -5.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Will Today’s Coffee Market See a 15¢ Drop Like April 18?The coffee market is currently testing its support range around 240-260, but recent patterns suggest a bearish outlook. Looking back at April 18 and September 6, we saw sharp price drops of 15¢ and 10¢, respectively, in a single session—both on the back of bearish signals that are resurfacing today. With the added downward pressure of typical Monday trading, today’s movement could follow a similar path, potentially driving prices down to 233 or even challenging the lower blue band at 230.
If the price breaks below 230, it would signal a shift in momentum and open the door for further declines. I should watch for strong volume on any drop below this level, as it could confirm a break in support and set a new range in motion.
Given my strategy to enter on a reversal bar, consider waiting for confirmation that price has indeed tested or broken the support around 233 or 230. If the price drops to those levels, look for a reversal signal—such as a bullish engulfing or hammer pattern—forming at or just below these key support zones.
My entry level:
Short Strategy
First Level: Follow advanced school run strategy as it is quite a break-out set-up.
Second Level: Reversal bar around Yesterday High 249
Long Strategy
First Level: If the price reaches around 233 and shows a reversal bar with strong buying volume, this could be a favorable entry.
Second Level: Should the price break to 230 and quickly rebound with a clear reversal pattern, this would serve as another possible entry point.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/4/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20158.00
- PR Low: 20070.50
- NZ Spread: 195.5
No key scheduled economic events
High energy start to the week with significant gap down, quickly filled
- QQQ daily gap above ~493
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 11/4)
- Weekend Gap: -0.13 (filled)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 299.59
- Volume: 40K
- Open Int: 250K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -4.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Little rally to trap everyone? Then were caught holding the bag?10-11 expiration for NVDA has way to much open interest at 120 - 130 levels. 118 looks more realistic.
I think we can see a climb to 120-130 early in the week and a huge sell off to 118 to end the week.
If this happens, it opens the door to max pain of 112 - 113 by 10/18.
There are going to be so many traps this months and I think were all in the middle of one now.
Inversely, my theory above could be a trap as well haha. If this is truly a blow off top, $149 -$150 is my absolute peak.
BTC Long- Day trading The first line of defense didn’t hold, and price has moved toward the Overlapping defense alongside the Fair Value Area.
I believe this level may hold, though once it reaches the target or gets close, we might see a temporary pullback or consolidation. For this reason, this trade requires close monitoring of price action, especially on a day full of important news. Be safe
Dowjones on Hourly Timeframe | Big Bullish CandleCould this be a trend reveral for short term?
Market Trend: The overall trend is labeled as bearish, confirmed by the "Strong" trend indicator in the dashboard.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): At 53.34, the RSI suggests neutral to slightly bearish momentum. However, this reading doesn’t yet indicate an overbought or oversold condition.
Volatility: High volatility at 84.54% signals potential for sharp price movements.
2. Chart Patterns
Swing High and Swing Low: Marked points of recent high and low levels indicate a clear downtrend, as shown by the sequence of lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL).
Supply and Demand Zones: The red zone above the entry level (42771.24) is labeled as a supply area, suggesting strong resistance, while the green area at the bottom is a demand zone, indicating support.
Descending Trendline: A blue trendline connects the lower highs, reinforcing the bearish trend and potential resistance for any upward move.
3. Entry and Target Levels
Entry Level: The chart recommends a short (sell) entry at 42771.24.
Stop Loss (SL): Placed at 42953.61, this stop loss is set above the supply zone to protect against unexpected upward movements.
Take Profit (TP) Levels:
TP1: 42488.87
TP2: 42256.49
TP3: 42024.12
TP4: 41791.74
These levels suggest a step-down approach in profit-taking, aiming to capture gains as the price moves toward the demand zone.
4. Performance Metrics
Accuracy: The indicator shows a historical accuracy of 69.48% for this setup, suggesting relatively high reliability.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/1/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20112.50
- PR Low: 20064.00
- NZ Spread: 108.5
Key scheduled economic events
08:30 | Average Hourly Earnings
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- Unemployment Rate
10:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI
- ISM Manufacturing Prices
10:45 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
New lows to close October below 20100
- Holding previous session lows
Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 11/1)
- Weekend Gap: +0.24 (filled)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 296.40
- Volume: 28K
- Open Int: 257K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -5.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/31/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20495.75
- PR Low: 20426.75
- NZ Spread: 154.5
Key scheduled economic events
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
- Core PCE Price Index (YoY|MoM)
09:45 | Chicago PMI
Daily rotation off 20800, taking out Tuesday's low
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 10/31)
- Weekend Gap: +0.24 (filled)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 283.82
- Volume: 31K
- Open Int: 277K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -3.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone