Get started

Volatility

The Solana "$Trump Pump" on its way to the Solana "$Trump Dump."Since the Friday launch of the official $Trump Meme Coin, both $Trump and Solana are literally "to the moon" in just a few hours. All I can say is with the inauguration just 48 hours away, this will be the most epic pump and dump in the history of Crypto. I'm sitting this one out. No telling whats going to happen, but its going to be fast and brutal whenever it hits. A telling post from Coinbase Support on Reddit: Poster: "How to cash out Trump coin from Coinbase wallet? It's giving 20k dollars to 2k when you swwp it to USD. " Support: "Hi xxxxxxxxxxx, we're sorry to hear about the significant value difference when trying to cash out Trump Coin from Coinbase Wallet. Verify that there is sufficient liquidity for Trump Coin. Low liquidity often results in a wide gap between the token’s nominal value and the actual cash-out value. Instead of swapping the entire amount at once, consider breaking the transaction into smaller amounts. This can sometimes minimize slippage and get you a better overall rate. If the problem persists, please contact our support team through the Coinbase Help Center for more detailed assistance." Maybe there is a "safe" proxie trade on this, but I haven't found it yet. Sit back and enjoy the show.
COINBASE:SOLUSDShort
by swineninety9
3
BTC Volatility Hits 6-Month High, Options Trading ExplodesImplied and realized volatility indexes hit the highest levels since August's yen carry trade unwind. Bitcoin (BTC), the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has always been synonymous with volatility. However, recent market activity indicates a significant surge in price fluctuations, with both implied and realized volatility indexes reaching levels not seen since August of the previous year. This spike in volatility coincides with a renewed frenzy in the Bitcoin options market, suggesting that traders are anticipating significant price swings in the near future. Understanding Volatility In financial markets, volatility refers to the degree of variation in the price of a trading asset over time. High volatility implies that the price of an asset can fluctuate dramatically over a short period, while low volatility suggests relatively stable price movements. Volatility can be measured in two primary ways: 1. Realized Volatility: This is a historical measure of how much an asset's price has fluctuated in the past. It is typically calculated by looking at the standard deviation of price changes over a specific period, such as 30 days. 2. Implied Volatility: This is a forward-looking measure of how much the market expects an asset's price to fluctuate in the future. It is derived from the pricing of options contracts, which give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a specific price on or before a certain date. Current Market Trends The increase in implied volatility suggests that options traders are pricing in a higher probability of significant price swings in Bitcoin. This could be due to a number of factors, including: • Increased Institutional Participation: The growing involvement of institutional investors in the Bitcoin market has led to larger trading volumes and potentially greater price swings. • Regulatory Uncertainty: The lack of clear regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies in many jurisdictions continues to create uncertainty and contribute to volatility. • Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment towards Bitcoin can also play a significant role in its volatility. Positive news and developments can lead to rapid price increases, while negative news can trigger sharp declines. Options Market Frenzy The surge in Bitcoin volatility is closely linked to a renewed frenzy in the Bitcoin options market. Options contracts provide traders with a way to bet on future price movements without having to directly buy or sell the underlying asset. The recent increase in options trading suggests that traders are actively seeking to capitalize on the expected price swings in Bitcoin. One notable trend in the options market is the increasing demand for call options, which give the holder the right to buy Bitcoin at a specific price. This indicates that many traders are betting on further price increases in the cryptocurrency. Potential Risks While the current market conditions may present opportunities for some traders, it is important to be aware of the potential risks associated with high volatility. Rapid price swings can lead to significant losses for those who are not adequately prepared. For latecomers to the Bitcoin market, the risk of immediate unrealized losses is particularly high. If the price of Bitcoin were to suddenly decline, those who recently bought in at higher prices could see their investments quickly lose value. Conclusion Bitcoin's recent surge in volatility, coupled with the frenzy in the options market, highlights the inherent risks and opportunities associated with this digital asset. While the potential for significant gains exists, traders must also be prepared for the possibility of substantial losses. As the Bitcoin market continues to evolve, it is crucial to stay informed and exercise caution when making investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
[01/20] GEX Outlook: Decision, Key Levels and Looming VolatilityLooking at the GEX levels through Friday, we can see that since mid-December, the market has been moving in a slightly downward channel. Above 6000–6025: A call gamma squeeze is expected. Between 5925 and 6000: A sideways “chop zone.” Below 5925: The high-volatility zone begins, with 5800–5850 acting as our major support/resistance level characterized by heavy put dominance. Below that level lies a “total denial zone.” We’ve seen this scenario before—think back to the red candle on December 18, when the price broke below that threshold. This “red zone” is currently around 5800, so below 5925 we can anticipate large-amplitude moves. At this point, the market still does not seem worried about significant volatility. Until Friday, all NETGEX values for every expiration are positive , so market participants are pricing in more of a sideways movement. We haven’t yet seen a big pickup in volatility. I’m not pessimistic, but keep in mind that Trump’s inauguration might usher in a high-volatility period—something the market and many retail traders haven’t experienced in a while. Better safe than sorry.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
BTC Bitcoin goes to $180,000 in June 2024? Price goal 250.000$!Bitcoin's Meteoric Rise: Predictions and BlackRock's ETF Impact In the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin has consistently remained at the forefront, capturing the imagination of investors and enthusiasts alike. As we approach mid-2024, a flurry of predictions and speculations surround the world's most valuable cryptocurrency, with some experts forecasting a staggering rise to $180,000 by June and even setting a price target of $250,000. Several factors contribute to these bullish forecasts. Bitcoin's limited supply of 21 million coins creates an inherent scarcity, making it a coveted asset in times of economic uncertainty. Additionally, growing institutional adoption, favorable regulatory developments in various jurisdictions, and increasing mainstream acceptance have all played pivotal roles in driving up demand and prices. One significant development that could further propel Bitcoin's ascent is the potential introduction of a Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) by BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager. An ETF would provide institutional and retail investors with a more accessible and regulated means of investing in Bitcoin, potentially unlocking billions of dollars in new capital inflows. BlackRock's entry into the Bitcoin ETF arena could serve as a watershed moment for the cryptocurrency market, legitimizing Bitcoin as a viable investment asset class and attracting a broader range of investors. The sheer size and influence of BlackRock could also lead to increased market liquidity and reduced price volatility, making Bitcoin a more attractive investment option for conservative investors. However, it's essential to approach these predictions with a degree of caution. Cryptocurrency markets are notoriously volatile, and unforeseen external factors, such as regulatory changes, technological developments, or macroeconomic shifts, could impact Bitcoin's price trajectory. In conclusion, while the $180,000 and $250,000 price targets for Bitcoin may seem ambitious, they are not entirely out of reach given the current market dynamics and potential catalysts on the horizon. BlackRock's potential Bitcoin ETF could indeed be a game-changer, ushering in a new era of mainstream adoption and pushing Bitcoin prices to new heights. As always, investors should conduct thorough research and exercise prudent risk management strategies when navigating the unpredictable world of cryptocurrencies. Made by Chatgpt.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Loveiceroollss
2
Little rally to trap everyone? Then were caught holding the bag?10-11 expiration for NVDA has way to much open interest at 120 - 130 levels. 118 looks more realistic. I think we can see a climb to 120-130 early in the week and a huge sell off to 118 to end the week. If this happens, it opens the door to max pain of 112 - 113 by 10/18. There are going to be so many traps this months and I think were all in the middle of one now. Inversely, my theory above could be a trap as well haha. If this is truly a blow off top, $149 -$150 is my absolute peak.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by LeapTrades
18
combined guide for both the **Regime Classifier** and **kNN Here’s the combined guide for both the **Regime Classifier** and **kNN (k-Nearest Neighbors)** indicators with emojis, tailored for your TradingView chart description: --- ### **🔑 Individual Lesson Steps** #### **Lesson 1: What is a Regime Classifier?** 👽 **Defining Market Regimes** - A **market regime** refers to distinct market conditions based on price behavior and volatility. - **Types of Market Regimes:** - 🚀 **Advance** (Uptrend) - 📉 **Decline** (Downtrend) - 🔄 **Accumulation** (Consolidation) - ⬆️⬇️ **Distribution** (Topping/Bottoming Patterns) 👾 **Why it Matters:** - Identifying market regimes helps traders tailor their strategies, manage risk, and make more accurate decisions. --- #### **Lesson 2: Anatomy of the Regime Classifier Indicator** 👽 **Core Components** - **Median Filtering:** Smooths out price data to capture significant trends. - **Clustering Model:** Classifies price trends and volatility into distinct regimes. - **Volatility Analysis:** Analyzes price volatility with rolling windows to detect high and low volatility phases. 👾 **Advanced Features:** - **Dynamic Cycle Oscillator (DCO):** Tracks price momentum and cyclic behavior. - **Regime Visualization:** Color-coded display of market conditions to make trends and patterns clearer. --- #### **Lesson 3: Configuring the Regime Classifier Indicator** 👽 **Customization Settings** - **Filter Window Size:** Adjusts sensitivity for detecting trends. - **ATR Lookback Period:** Determines how far back the volatility is calculated. - **Clustering Window & Refit Interval:** Fine-tunes how the indicator adapts to new market conditions. - **Dynamic Cycle Oscillator Settings:** Tailors lookback periods and smoothing factors. 👾 **Why It’s Useful:** - Customizing these settings helps traders optimize the indicator for different trading styles (e.g., scalping, swing trading, long-term investing). --- #### **Lesson 4: Using the Indicator for Regime-Based Trading Strategies** 👽 **Adapt Strategies Based on Regimes** - **Advance Regime:** Focus on long positions and trend-following strategies. - **Decline Regime:** Prioritize short positions or hedging strategies. - **Accumulation Regime:** Watch for breakout opportunities. - **Distribution Regime:** Look for trend reversals or fading trends. 👾 **Using the Dynamic Cycle Oscillator for Confirmation:** - 🌡️ **Overbought/Oversold Conditions:** Identify potential reversals. - 🔄 **Trend Momentum:** Confirm if the trend is gaining or losing strength. --- #### **Lesson 5: Combining Volatility and Price Trends for High-Confidence Trades** 👽 **Interpreting Volatility Clusters** - 🔥 **High Volatility:** Indicates caution, risk management, or hedging opportunities. - 🌿 **Low Volatility:** Suggests consolidation or trend continuation. 👾 **How Volatility Clusters Interact with Price Trends:** - Combine trend direction with volatility analysis to refine trade entries and exits for more precise decisions. --- #### **Lesson 6: Backtesting and Live Application** 👽 **Validate Using Historical Data** - Guide traders on **backtesting** strategies using historical data to see how the indicator would have performed. 👾 **Real-Time Application:** - Implement the Regime Classifier in **live markets** to monitor ongoing price conditions and gain actionable insights. --- ### **🔑 kNN (k-Nearest Neighbors) Indicator Lesson Steps** #### **Lesson 1: What is kNN?** 👽 **Defining kNN** - **k-Nearest Neighbors** is a machine learning algorithm that makes predictions based on the proximity of data points. - It identifies the nearest neighbors of a data point and classifies it according to the majority class of those neighbors. 👾 **Why it Matters:** - **kNN** helps traders forecast price movement, trends, and potential reversals by analyzing historical data. --- #### **Lesson 2: Anatomy of the kNN Indicator** 👽 **Core Components** - **Training Data:** Historical price data used to identify the neighbors of a point. - **Distance Metric:** Determines the closeness of data points (e.g., Euclidean distance). - **k Parameter:** The number of nearest neighbors to consider for predictions. 👾 **Advanced Features:** - **Distance Calculation:** Helps assess how similar current price movement is to historical patterns. - **Prediction:** The majority of the nearest neighbors determines the expected price movement (up or down). --- #### **Lesson 3: Configuring the kNN Indicator** 👽 **Customization Settings** - **k (Number of Neighbors):** Adjust to control how many historical data points influence predictions. - **Distance Metric:** Choose from Euclidean, Manhattan, or other metrics based on data characteristics. - **Window Size:** Defines how many data points (e.g., time periods) are used for analysis. 👾 **Why It’s Useful:** - Tuning these settings allows traders to adjust the sensitivity and precision of predictions, optimizing for various trading styles. --- #### **Lesson 4: Using the kNN Indicator for Predictive Trading Strategies** 👽 **Predicting Price Movements** - Use **kNN** to identify trend directions and price reversals based on historical proximity. - **Uptrend Prediction:** Identify moments where the nearest neighbors suggest a continuation of the trend. - **Downtrend Prediction:** Signal when the majority of neighbors point toward price decline. 👾 **Using Predictions to Enhance Trade Entries:** - Use **kNN** signals in conjunction with **Regime Classifier** regimes to validate and enhance entry and exit points. --- #### **Lesson 5: Combining kNN Predictions with Regime Classifier for Precision** 👽 **Refining Trade Confidence** - Cross-reference **kNN predictions** (uptrend/downtrend) with **Regime Classifier’s** regime identification for higher precision trades. - **Example:** If **kNN** predicts an uptrend and the **Regime Classifier** signals an **Advance** regime, you can confidently go long. --- #### **Lesson 6: Backtesting and Live Application** 👽 **Validate Predictions with Historical Data** - Backtest using **kNN** on past price data to measure accuracy in predicting trends and reversals. - **Real-Time Application:** Implement **kNN** in live markets alongside **Regime Classifier** for comprehensive decision-making. --- ### **🔄 Combined Lessons for Advanced Mastery** #### **Combo 1: Regime Identification and kNN Predictions for Strategy Optimization** 💡 **Objective:** Combine market regime identification with kNN predictions to refine trading strategies. - Merge **Lesson 1 (Understanding Regimes)** and **Lesson 1 (What is kNN?)**. - **Practical Exercise:** Use both indicators to identify regimes and predict price trends in live charts. --- #### **Combo 2: Customization, Practical Usage, and Enhanced Predictions** 💡 **Objective:** Equip traders to fine-tune both indicators for their unique strategies. - Merge **Lesson 3 (Settings Configuration for Regime Classifier)** and **Lesson 3 (kNN Indicator Configuration)**. - Walkthrough: Customize settings and combine both indicators to predict price trends and adjust strategies accordingly. --- #### **Combo 3: Comprehensive Trading Strategy with Regime Classifier and kNN** 💡 **Objective:** Build a full-fledged trading system using both indicators for market regime analysis and predictive signals. - Combine **all lessons** for a complete, systematic trading approach: - 🔍 **Identify market regimes** - 🔄 **Use kNN predictions** to assess potential price movements - 📈 **Combine with Dynamic Cycle Oscillator** for entry/exit timing - 💥 **Execute trades** with a comprehensive strategy --- These lessons and combos provide traders with the essential tools to master both the **Regime Classifier** and **k-Nearest Neighbors** indicators, from understanding the fundamentals to implementing advanced strategies and refining predictions for more accurate market analysis.
Education
by bencryptoknight
Potential bottom, turnaround; catalyst today?Buenos dias, This stock is crazy and I won't get into the details except at high level: The stock has, until recently, only had ~6.5m issued shares. Some dingus (or genius) cashed in their warrants for ~130m new shares, which sent the trade volume into a craze the past few days. Yesterday GCTK was the most traded stock and the most shorted stock on NASDAQ. Today the market cap of the company based on issued shares is approximately $ 20m. We do not know if the original owner of the warrants cashed out, is holding, or plans to cash out, although they received an outsized portion of shares for their warrants and could dump on the market, although I suspect the massive volume is related to their offloading of shares. Take a look at the larger chart - it has been dump city for years. So goes the life of a R&D company with no products. The company, however, has developed a novel diabetic monitor that is implantable, lasts 2-3 years, and gives real-time accurate data. This is an order of magnitude more efficient and capable than the best version of implantable devices today. The predict $ 1B in revenue early on after product launch. Today, they are presenting their latest trial data, presumably from their human subjects, at a major biotech conference at 12:30pm Eastern. This will be their first human-based data release. Taking a look at the past few days on the chart, despite a flood of new shares and despite a flood of shorting, the price has effectively triple bottomed at $0.11 and has withstood the great flood. I suspect that this is a new floor, and we will see a period of upward price movement, likely preceded by a large spike today due to speculators. I believe shorters are massively offside here, and there is opportunity to make a significant gain today and potentially over the next few years. Once they go to launch their product, it will be too late for speculators to make massive ROIs.
NASDAQ:GCTKLong
by nothximgood
HOW-TO: Optimize Risk in Volatile Markets on TradingViewThe Fractional Accumulation Distribution Strategy (FADS) is designed to dynamically optimize entry points and position sizing based on market conditions. It leverages volatility-based trend detection and adaptive scaling to identify high-probability demand and supply zones using ranges from higher timeframes. In volatile markets, traders can improve capital allocation and optimize their personal risk preference in various ways when using FADS. The settings used in this demonstration differ from the default script settings to highlight specific features or behaviors under unique market conditions. Users are encouraged to experiment with these parameters to suit their trading preferences. USE CASES: Adjust volatility setting to adapt to any timeframe Traders with high risk tolerance can use lower volatility period to increase the frequency of accumulation and distribution phases which often results in entering at higher price levels. To optimize for a better trend capture, the period can be increased to filter out minor fluctuations resulting in better entry and exit price levels. Adjusting Volatility Input and Range for Higher Timeframes Working with higher timeframes such as daily in a volatile market, reducing risk can be achieved by increasing the volatility input and reducing the period. Adjusting Positions Spacing via Spreads Settings The Accumulation and Distribution Spreads are one of the conditional components, defining how the strategy scales into positions during separate phases. Accumulation Spread determines the distance between additional buy positions during the accumulation phase. A trader with a lower risk tolerance can use larger value to increase the distance between buy orders, leading to fewer trades and a more conservative accumulation. In contrast, smaller values increase frequency of buy orders leading to a more aggressive accumulation. In extreme volatile markets, a larger distance between entry positions can significantly improve average cost of trades and capital conservation. Distribution Spread determines the distance between exits during the Distribution Phase. Larger value increases the distance between sell orders, reducing sell frequency and leading to more deliberate distribution. Smaller value decreases the distance, making the strategy more aggressive in taking profits or scaling out of positions. Increased DS forces strategy to distribute at higher price levels which in its turn increases potential profits as well as risks! Keep in mind that markets are unpredictable so increase it considering y risk tolerance. Cross-Functional Setup for FADS Here’s how the setup impacts performance across two scenarios: Default Setup for 15-Minute Timeframe: Using the default setting on smaller timeframes like 15 minutes naturally reduces the number of trades. This is due to filtering out short-term fluctuations and focusing on extreme price levels influenced by weekly volatility metrics. This approach works well for traders seeking fewer but more strategic entries and exits. Custom Setup for Higher Trade Frequency for 15-Minute Timeframe: For traders using smaller timeframes and seeking to capture more frequent fluctuations, the following adjustment approaches can help balance increased trade frequency while reducing risk. Adjust Volatility Factor Reduce the volatility factor to 'Daily' from 'Weekly' to increase the number of trades by capturing more fluctuations. Increase Period Increase the period to smooth trends and compensate for higher volatility, which helps filter out minor fluctuations and reduces overall trade count. Increase Accumulation Threshold Raise the accumulation threshold to target lower price levels, which reduces trade frequency and lowers risk by focusing on more significant price drops. Adjust Accumulation Spread Increase the accumulation spread to leave larger gaps between entry points during the accumulation phase, reducing risk. Additionally, uncheck the accumulation spread checkbox to increase frequency of trades at targeted zones. Rationale: By reducing the volatility factor to 'Daily,' the number of trades increases as smaller price fluctuations are captured. To offset the associated risks, adjustments to the accumulation threshold and spread help filter for better trade opportunities.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by fract
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/17/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 21239.50 - PR Low: 21209.25 - NZ Spread: 67.75 No key scheduled economic events Inside print rotation back to 21000 - Retraced nearly 50% of Wednesday momentum breakout range - Advertising daily pivot high off 216000 zone Session Open Stats (As of 1:25 AM 1/17) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 384.63 - Volume: 24K - Open Int: 252K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -5.1% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025Long
by mv3trader5
#1.) AEON → CL: $0.22 → 52wk-L: $0.16 / 52wk-H: $17.17 - Setup?AMEX:AEON AEON appeared on a custom TV scanner I created, here are somethings I believe are worth considering: - Avg Vol: 5.06m / 1/7 Vol: 48.30m - Public offering announced 1/5, crashing stock by 66% - (Offering close 1/7). - HUGE Volume in the last two days, just hit 52wk-L... - Penny stocks have been rocketing lately, this one is primed IMO.. - Accumulation has risen and held above recent dip while just above 52wk-L - (dip-7/15/24) - TF: D → VP-POC: $0.18 / TF: 5m → VP-POC: $0.19 / TF: 1m → VP-POC: $0.23 - According to Fintel – Shorts Available: 0 (Just info, not laying my neck on accuracy) S-Shot. - Avg Vol (30d): 5.06m – Today’s Vol: 48.30M. - It held $0.20 AH / Higher lows all day. – Nearly x8 daily volume / Bottom heavy VP. Overall: Stock is really beat down off of the public offering. I don’t see it going much lower based on the chart review, 52wk-L, and PA strength viewed on 1/7/25. The last two days carry the largest volume candles currently printed on the daily chart. This is a risk play obviously being pharma – but overall, when I’m looking for strength, I like to see large orders confirm my thesis. If this gets attention, then I see some real movement. Price is @ ½ of companies offering price – Moving quickly to $0.50 would put it on even more radars. Looks good AHs... Cheers 🍾
AMEX:AEONLong
by Kase22
8
ACHR VOLATILITY CAPTUREShould everything fall to plan I was able to spot an EMA convergence with injunction of timing via the day of the week in market anticipation of the return of the previous Admin. Entry Point • Entry Price: $9.14 I initiated deployment at $9.14, identifying this level as an entry point right before the inauguration of the next admin. This is Driven my 3hr Volatility contraction, at a support level on the green 100 EMA. Take Profit Level • Take Profit: $9.41 On this long I am anticipating the swipe of $9.41. Take profit level is in aim to secure calculated gain of $0.27 per share, approximately a 2.95% profit on your position. Stop Loss • Stop Loss: $8.53 In an effort to cover capital, stop loss is at $8.53. This level ensures that your maximum loss is capped at $0.61 per share, equating to about a 6.67% aggressive downside risk. Risk-Reward Ratio Risk-reward ratio of this trade is approximately 1:0.45. This implies I am risking $0.61 to potentially gain $0.27 per share. While the reward is lower than the risk, the trade aligns with broader portfolio strategies and short-term technical signals supporting a high-probability outcome.
NYSE:ACHRLong
by Ra_way
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/16/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 21421.00 - PR Low: 21378.25 - NZ Spread: 95.75 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims - Retail Sales (Core|MoM) - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Full rotation back to 21400 range supply - Pressure applied to long-term shorts below 21200 - Auction halted at edge of daily Keltner average cloud - Holding below previous session close Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 1/16) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 383.66 - Volume: 23K - Open Int: 253K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -4.8% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/15/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 20977.00 - PR Low: 20938.50 - NZ Spread: 86.0 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | CPI (Core|YoY|MoM) 10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories Previous session printed volatile swings raising emotional value of participants - Holding auction inside 21000 range - Daily print advertising to indecision narrative - Another AMP temp margin increase for expected economic news event vol spike Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 1/15) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 372.13 - Volume: 17K - Open Int: 252K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -6.6% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/14/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 21088.50 - PR Low: 21011.00 - NZ Spread: 173.5 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | PPI Advertising daily rotation long back above 21000 - Holding auction near Friday's close and previous session high following slight session gap - AMP margin increase for expected economic news release vol spike Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 1/14) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Gap +0.13% (filled) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 377.30 - Volume: 27K - Open Int: 251K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -6.3% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025
by mv3trader5
USDJPY SHORTUSDJPY: Rising Wedge Consolidation with Bearish Momentum Building Market Overview: USDJPY has been moving within a large Rising Wedge pattern on the Daily timeframe, currently consolidating near the top. We are observing Daily RSI divergence, signaling potential exhaustion at these elevated levels. The 4H intermediate structure has broken below the 50 SMA, indicating early signs of bearish momentum. Key Observations: 1. Bearish Momentum Building: • The rejection at the top of the wedge coincides with increased volatility, as shown by the Bollinger Bands, suggesting that the anticipated downward move may have already begun. • Confirmation of bearish momentum on lower timeframes (LTF) is required for precise entry into this move, targeting the 153-154 region. 2. Weekly Perspective: • USDJPY has recently broken out of a long-term downward trendline on the Weekly chart, marking a shift in macro sentiment. • This pullback is setting up for a potential Higher Low (HL) on the Daily timeframe, creating a base for a continuation move beyond 158. 3. Fibonacci Confluence: • The anticipated downward move aligns with the 0.5-0.618 retracement of the larger upward move—a strong area for liquidity gathering and a potential bullish HL formation on the higher timeframes. 4. 4H Bullish Order Block: • The 4H bullish order block near the retracement zone adds further confluence as a key area to watch for reversal and liquidity accumulation. Trading Plan: • Current Focus: Await confirmation of bearish momentum on LTF for a high-probability entry into the pullback. • Target Zone: 153-154 region, aligning with the Rising Wedge breakdown and retracement levels. • Larger Trend: The pullback is viewed as part of a macro bullish structure, setting up for a significant continuation move beyond 158 in the coming weeks. Stay tuned for precise entry signals as we monitor bearish momentum and key levels for validation. Trade with discipline and proper risk management!
Short
by EliteMarketAnalysis
Progressive Corp Progressively Degrading. PGRThere is a confirmation of short enter with break of the most recent lows. Fibs are indicative of some of the goals. I've decided to bring this example forward, as it is evident how a pure indicator based approach would be detrimental. In this case, you would thing the position in building stochastically and volatility wise giving a false sense of a likely long. Always consider price action beyond the pure mechanical indicator based approach, which are almost always of the lagging variety.
NYSE:PGRShort
by Rykin_Capital
Anticipating a Drop on Goldman. GSIt is looking like a start of Wave 3 or C, as per Elliott. We are inclined to believe that the drop will be impulsive, secondary to a short time in the correction post Wave 1 (or A), suggesting Wave 2 completion, rather than B. Technically, stochastics and volatility zones are about to flip, momentum down going. Also, there is a cross of both the Smoother by Ehlers and MIDAS curve. This is a highly suggestive bearish picture from and eagle's eye view. Aiming to reverse position in the event of contralateral MIDAS curve cross.
NYSE:GSShort
by Rykin_Capital
1
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/13/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 21027.75 - PR Low: 20942.50 - NZ Spread: 191.0 No key scheduled economic events Breaking below 21000 inventory pivots from Nov 27, Dec 20 and Jan 2 - Should peak the interest of both buyers and sellers (liquidity boost) - Buyers expecting repeat rotation - Sellers expecting bullish breakdown - First full trading week since the week before Christmas Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 1/13) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 387.17 - Volume: 39K - Open Int: 242K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -7.0% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025Short
by mv3trader5
Kickstart 2025: SPX GEX Outlook & Options InsightsNew Year, Renewed Energy — Critical Levels and Strategies for the Week Critical Levels Se detailed image below: Above 5940 (HVL): Expect some “chop zone” between 5940 and 6000, but with a generally bullish bias based on our Auto-GEX Profiles until friday. Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could ignite by Friday, pulling the index toward the next major resistance. Below 5900: Significant bearish momentum may take hold, targeting around 5800 (PUT support), though this scenario seems less likely right now. Gamma Conditions Short DTE options (0–2 days) exhibit positive gamma, which tends to buoy prices and make steep sell-offs more difficult. There’s notable IV skew in the very near-term expirations (01/08–01/09). Consider focusing on the Friday (01/10) and Monday (01/13) expirations for timespread strategies. Summary Upside: Holding above 5940 supports a move toward the 6000 target. Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could propel the SPX higher. Below 5900: Watch out for a stronger bearish move toward 5800. IV and skew may be erratic this week, but the positive gamma backdrop favors upside momentum. There are several announcements due this week. If price whipsaws around these times, remember it’s often directly tied to those scheduled news releases—try not to panic. Wishing everyone a responsible and successful year of options trading in 2025!
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
BTCUSDT Analysis: Preparing for a Critical Zone TestThe 4-hour chart of BTCUSDT reveals a textbook retest of key levels following a sharp breakdown from the resistance near $105,268 . This move is consistent with a broader bearish structure that began forming after rejection at $108,366 . The current trajectory suggests Bitcoin may continue its downward momentum toward a high-probability liquidity zone between $85,883 and $89,510 . Here's why this area deserves close attention: Technical Breakdown: 1. Descending Trendline Rejection: The price recently respected the long-term yellow descending trendline, emphasizing the strength of sellers around $102,934. 2. Support Zones: Immediate support at $96,920 has seen a weak bounce, increasing the likelihood of deeper retracements. A stronger accumulation zone lies between $85,883 and $89,510 (highlighted in orange), which aligns with historical demand zones and Fibonacci retracement levels. 3. Bearish Momentum: The rapid fall post-breakout indicates strong bearish momentum, confirmed by increasing sell volumes on key levels. Any short-term pullback toward $96,436 or $98,000 could serve as an opportunity to position for further declines. 4. Indicators and Risk Management: Divergence signals suggest momentum exhaustion, and traders should anticipate potential short-term volatility. Use tight stop-loss placements and avoid overleveraging. For this setup, a stop-loss above $98,920 is recommended to limit risk. Trade Plan: Short Opportunity: If BTC retraces to $96,436 or $98,000, consider entering short positions with targets in the $89,510–$85,883 range. Stay vigilant and be prepared to pivot based on price action near critical levels. *** Final Note: Remember, no strategy is foolproof. Always consider market risks, manage positions carefully, and align trades with your broader portfolio strategy. Let the price action guide your decisions.
Short
by DegenTrader100X
3