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Volatility

Trading the Impulse Rally Retracement — Price and Time Symmetry Trend is observed from an impulse run’s lowest/highest point and projected outwards in symmetrical fibonacci retracement via price/time from the first reversal candle to the end of the rally, creating crosshairs. These ‘crosshairs’ visually represent the trending ‘price distribution projection’ in price/time symmetry. Using this concept, I draw a ‘projection trend line’ from the bottom or top of the impulse run thru the projected 78.6% price/time retracement value, to identify the price distribution structure in a linear form. Now to introduce my STOP LOSS TRIANGLE. This is a concept of decaying price and time as an underlying move towards our theoretical projection, where if the underlying enters our built faded cross-section, the SL is triggered to avoid sideways consolidation and decaying contract premiums. This ‘right’ triangle that is ‘sclene’ by nature is created by taking the furthest projection in price/time symmetry (78.6%) and drawing a vertically placed straight line to the highest/lowest point in the rally previously identified. Here, I create a ‘right triangle’ by turning 90 degrees towards my final point, which is made by the nearest projection in price/time symmetry (38.2%). In its entirety, this forms the stop loss triangle. Come follow me on X @askHVtobidIV for more! CHEERS!
NASDAQ:NVDA
by splitmyIVandmelt
[𝟬𝟱/𝟭𝟮] 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗦𝗣𝗫 𝗚𝗘𝗫 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸🔍 IF/THEN QUICK GAMMA PLAYBOOK IF > 5825 THEN path to 5900 → stall/profit-taking likely IF > 5900 THEN path to first 5950, then 6000 → gamma squeeze extension zone IF < 5825 THEN path to 5700 → test of transition zone support Chop Zone: — re-entry = short-term balance/testing zone IF < 5700 THEN path to 5500 → gamma flush / dealer unwind risk 🧭 𝗘𝗫𝗧𝗘𝗡𝗗𝗘𝗗 𝗭𝗢𝗡𝗘 𝗠𝗔𝗣/b] ✅ Gamma Flip Level 5700 → This is the confirmed Gamma Flip level = High Volatility Zone = HVL. We are comfortably above it, confirming positive gamma environment. 🧱 Major Call Walls / Resistance to upside from here 5900 → Significant call resistance zone (highlighted across GEX, profile, and /matrix command). 5825–5900 = Current rally zone → expected stall at 5900 (Profit-taking zone)5950 → Next mid-large positive gamma wall to the upside, mid-station between mounts. Dealers short gamma, adding fuel to breakout.6000 → Positive Gamma squeeze continuation target. Gamma squeeze intensifies → likely extends to 6000.🟦 Transition / Chop Zone 5700–5825 → Previous chop range. Retrace could test this before renewed upside.Currently outside and breaking up from this zone, indicating trend initiation. Balance zone from prior structure. Expect fade setups if price dips back in. Needs catalyst or strong sell flow to re-enter meaningfully. 🛡️ Major Put Supports to the downside 5700 → = HVL, also aligned with pTrans and Put support.Dealer unwind risk, downside opens.5500 → Key level if the 5700 zone fails — “total denial zone” of current FOMO. ----------------------------- This week’s SPX setup remains decisively bullish from a gamma perspective. The GEX profile shows strong positive gamma, with institutional and dealer hedging flows firmly positioned to support continued upside—especially into Friday’s OPEX. The environment is ideal for a controlled melt-up: volatility is softening, implied volatility is trending lower, and there’s no sign of panic in the options market. Put pricing skew is also declining, which suggests reduced fear and a shift toward more aggressive call buying—another sign of bullish sentiment. Dealer positioning implies that any upward momentum is likely to be chased and hedged into, reinforcing the trend. However, traders should stay alert: if SPX slips back below 5825, we may see a pause or retracement back into the 5700–5825 transition zone. Only a decisive break below 5700 would flip the gamma regime back to negative and open the door to real downside volatility.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 5/14/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025 - PR High: 21273.00 - PR Low: 21249.50 - NZ Spread: 52.5 No key scheduled economic events Value continues to creep another 2%, increasing distance from weekend gap - Mechanically, holding previous session highs Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 5/14) - Session Open ATR: 543.13 - Volume: 33K - Open Int: 281K - Trend Grade: Bear - From BA ATH: -5.9% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19246 - Short: 16963 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQM2025Long
by mv3trader5
Historical Volatility Bottoming on NVDANASDAQ:NVDA HV10 (bi-weekly) printed a coiled low for me on Friday May 9th, where today we saw the spring on great macro news release. I expect volatility to continue its regression journey to quarterly means throughout the company earnings report into the end of the month. Should be a wild ride before consolidating with the broader markets. IV on the local monthly closed 50.48% -- this leaves a divergence still from HV10 to IV of 13.05% and is leaving a premium move capture to HV63 of 31%! This is why I love capturing a volatility sweeping move, because the premium per move is advantageous towards capital. I expect bi-weekly HV to trend up over the following week increasing our volatility range. CHEERS!
NASDAQ:NVDA
by splitmyIVandmelt
How to use Dynamic Market Structure to track market moves🔍 Idea Overview This chart demonstrates the effectiveness of the Dynamic Market Structure Indicator in live conditions, capturing key Break of Structure (BoS) and Change of Character (ChoCH) points. Each zone dynamically adapts based on price behavior and helps identify crucial turning points. 📌 Highlights from the Chart • ✅ Early BoS detection led to accurate identification of the bullish breakout before the major rally starting May 7. • ✅ Multiple successful ChoCH zones indicated potential reversal areas and pause zones during sideways consolidation. • ✅ The green (BoS) and red (ChoCH) horizontal zones aligned perfectly with price reaction levels, acting as reliable support/resistance. • ✅ During the pullback post-high, the indicator caught clear bearish ChoCH before price dropped nearly $2,000, showing high responsiveness. 📊 Summary of Performance • Rally captured from ~95,000 to ~104,000 with early BoS signals. • Sideways zones around 103,000–104,000 marked with structural shifts that predicted stalling. • Post-drop behavior accurately highlighted re-test of ChoCH zones before reversal attempts. ⚙️ Indicator Logic (Brief) • BoS (Green): Confirms trend continuation when structure breaks in the direction of the trend. • ChoCH (Red): Signals a potential trend reversal with key level break. No repainting. Zones are locked once confirmed. In volatile markets like BTC, accurate detection of structural shifts can define risk and opportunity. This indicator consistently tracked evolving zones and highlighted major inflection points — without lag or overfitting.
by TradeTechanalysis
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 5/13/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025 - PR High: 20963.50 - PR Low: 20913.25 - NZ Spread: 112.25 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | CPI (Core|MoM|YoY) Weekend gap strongly remains unfilled - 25% AMP margins increase for expected CPI volatility spike Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 5/13) - Session Open ATR: 551.55 - Volume: 32K - Open Int: 275K - Trend Grade: Bear - From BA ATH: -7.9% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19246 - Short: 16963 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQM2025Short
by mv3trader5
Trading the Impulse Rally Retracement — Price and Time Symmetry This is a concept of decaying price and time as an underlying move towards our theoretical projection, where if the underlying enters our built faded cross-section, the SL is triggered to avoid sideways consolidation and decaying contract premiums. This ‘right’ triangle that is ‘sclene’ by nature is created by taking the furthest projection in price/time symmetry (78.6%) and drawing a vertically placed straight line to the highest/lowest point in the rally previously identified. Here, I create a ‘right triangle’ by turning 90 degrees towards my final point, which is made by the nearest projection in price/time symmetry (38.2%). In its entirety, this forms the stop loss triangle. Rules — 1. Enter position with strike of 38.5% retracement in price and expiration of +21 days past 78.6% retracement in time. 2. SL is LOW or HIGH in PRICE from rally. Structure invalidates with new low or high made that expands rally — this protects against price decay. 3. SL is STOP LOSS TRIANGLE cross-sectional zone built. Structure invalidates with horizontal extension into faded cross-section to protect against time decay. The beauty of this concept is the ability to trade with rules the potential retracement in price/time symmetry distinctively and without emotion, as the underlying trades to potential harmonic reversals.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by splitmyIVandmelt
Using Historical Volatility and HarmonicsI track bi-weekly, monthly, and quarterly volatility to have a feel for how trending markets elasticity is and I weight this volatility percentage to the ever sliding IV environment and calculate an implied range for the week. This helps me gauge the weekly candle potential. Here you see my HV10/21/63 implied ranges for the week listed from my spreadsheet and visualized on the daily perspective of CBOE:BITX -- What I would like to point out entering the week as this run will begin to cool off, is the confluence around $60.00 with HV63 regression and 'Point D' completion of my harmonic shown. I hope everyone has a great week. If you like to talk volatility and enjoy fibonacci drop me a comment.
CBOE:BITXLong
by splitmyIVandmelt
05/05 SPX Weekly Playbook - GEX Zone Outlook🔮 What-If Scenarios for This Week – Based on GEX Structure until Firday Last week’s market momentum pushed the S&P 500 up by almost 3%, effectively erasing the price gap left behind on Liberation Day. The index also strung together nine straight days of gains—something we haven’t seen since late 2004. Meanwhile, implied volatility dropped significantly, with the VIX touching its lowest level since the holiday, falling to around 22.5. Several factors seem to have fueled this bullish tone, including a more measured approach from Trump on trade policies and strong quarterly results from major tech names like Microsoft and Meta. Still, the nature of the buying raises questions—was this a thoughtful rotation, or just a broad sweep of optimism? ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 🔄 Chop Zone: 5650 – 5670 (wide transition zone) 🔹 Gamma Flip: 5615 🔺 Key Call Wall: 5725 (5800 potential shift) 🔻 Key Put Wall: 5500 (5400 major support below) 🔼 Upside Path IF > 5670 → transition cleared → ➡️ 5700 stall / reaction IF > 5725 → call wall breached → ➡️ Path to 5750 / 5775 → stall at 5800 (largest net call OI) IF > 5800 → gamma resistance breaks down → ➡️ 5825/5850 zone opens up 🔽 Downside Path IF < 5615 → gamma flip triggered → ➡️ 5500 = battle zone (massive put wall + high negative GEX) IF < 5500 → negative gamma squeeze likely → ➡️ Stall zone: 5450 → flush to 5400 IF < 5400 → high-volatility regime → ➡️ Possible acceleration to 5375 / 5340 depending on IV spike ⚖️ Neutral Setup IF 5650–5670 holds → dealer hedging = balanced → ➡️ Ideal for non-directional spreads / theta plays ➡️ Wait for breakout confirmation above 5670 or below 5615 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 🔍 Final Thoughts We’ve seen a sharp rally since the Trump trade war scare, with barely any meaningful pullback. The market appears to be looking for one—as a breath. Based on current GEX positioning, there’s significantly more downside hedging than upside, especially in the mid-term May expirations. That doesn’t necessarily mean we crash—but it does mean that moves lower can accelerate faster, while upward breakouts may require more energy or time. In this environment, consider: Bearish or neutral spreads (put debit spreads, call credit spreads) Volatility-based strategies Avoiding naked upside trades unless we see a strong reclaim of 5725+ Stay safe and adapt—GEX doesn’t tell direction, but it does tell where the fire might start, beacuse of reflexting to hedging activity.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 5/12/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025 - PR High: 20474.75 - PR Low: 20376.75 - NZ Spread: 218.75 No key scheduled economic events Unfilled weekend gap up over 1% - Gap fills below 20160 - Auction pausing at March 26 pivot Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM 5/12) - Session Open ATR: 551.42 - Volume: 47K - Open Int: 260K - Trend Grade: Bear - From BA ATH: -10.9% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19246 - Short: 16963 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQM2025Long
by mv3trader5
The 'Fibonacci Triangle' and Historical Volatility Along with the harmonic I just posted to the community showing confluence with HV63 regression that started to take place last week, I wanted to include my 'Fibonacci Triangle' with my predictive volatility range idea. I see HV10 (bi-weekly) resonating off HV21 (monthly) to enter the week. This would create roughly a $4.92 range if correct for tomorrow. From there we can continue to increase in volatility into the week until full means regression to quarterly trending averages are met. This can be reflected in the daily candle through the trending bi-weekly daily volatility print on the day, then calculated into range. Of course as always, my ranges are weighted to the current IV environment. If my target range of monthly volatility is reached tomorrow, which holds confluence in the 78.60% retracement value from selling off with BTC for 70 days..i'd say there is probability to move another $2.21 in regression, putting us just below $60.00. CBOE:BITX
CBOE:BITXLong
by splitmyIVandmelt
Agree to disagree... Gold is topping right now.My price path seen above is a complete guess but it stems from long term trend lines and more importantly order flow from last week. On Thursday there was a #1 trade on AMEX:PHYS for $200+ Million at the green levels in my chart above (Equivalent levels). PRICE WILL 100% go to my green lines by end of this week 04/25. We are over shooting the dark pool sale but a lot, however, this is always to trap retail and create fomo/peak fear. In the correction/recession cycles, gold ALWAYS TOPS LAST before the crash...
COMEX:GC1!Short
by LeapTrades
7
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 5/9/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025 - PR High: 20182.50 - PR Low: 20137.00 - NZ Spread: 101.5 No key scheduled economic events Auction maintaining week range, holding in the highs Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 5/9) - Session Open ATR: 555.12 - Volume: 33K - Open Int: 260K - Trend Grade: Bear - From BA ATH: -10.9% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19246 - Short: 16963 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQM2025Short
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 5/8/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025 - PR High: 19957.25 - PR Low: 19910.75 - NZ Spread: 103.75 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims 13:00 | 30-Year Bond Auction Auction remains inside week range, 19920 to 20200 - Contained inside Friday's range, advertising return to 20280 high - Strong value increase through Asian hours Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 5/8) - Session Open ATR: 578.32 - Volume: 43K - Open Int: 257K - Trend Grade: Bear - From BA ATH: -10.9% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19246 - Short: 16963 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQM2025Long
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 5/7/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025 - PR High: 20133.75 - PR Low: 19799.50 - NZ Spread: 746.25 Key scheduled economic events: 10:30 | Crude Inventories 14:00 | FOMC Statement Fed Interest Rate Decision 14:30 | FOMC Press Conference Temporary AMP margins increase for upcoming FOMC (25%) - Session open volatility creates 334 point initial range - Maintaining Friday's range, holding 20200 rotation advertisement Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 5/7) - Session Open ATR: 592.41 - Volume: 57K - Open Int: 257K - Trend Grade: Bear - From BA ATH: -11.5% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19246 - Short: 16963 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQM2025
by mv3trader5