US100 Don't be too greedy!!NO FINANCIAL ADVICE!
Looks like smart money wants to grab the stops of the retails... In these times... stay patient and wait for the moment! Trade safe! :)
Volatility
Short VIDT40% on 20x leverage will make generational wealth. The downside is solely based off my model prediction and current volatility measurements and that the asset is being delisted.
GEX Analysis & Options “Game Plan”🔶 Short- and longer-term perspective in a high IV, negative GEX environment
🔶 KEY LEVELS & RANGES
Spot: 221
Gamma Flip / Transition: around 250 (the turquoise zone on the chart)
– This zone typically marks a “power shift.” If price decisively breaks above 250 and holds, market makers’ gamma positioning could flip from neutral/negative to positive.
Put Support: 200
– A large negative gamma position has accumulated here, making 200 a strong support level. If it breaks, the downside may accelerate.
Call Resistance: 400
– A major long-term “call wall” where a significant amount of OTM calls are concentrated. It’s more relevant to LEAPS; currently far from spot, so not a realistic short-term target.
Call Resistance #2: 300
– A medium-term bullish objective, still above the 200-day MA. You’d need to be strongly bullish to aim for ~300 by May (e.g., going for a 16-delta OTM call).
Short-Term / Intermediate GEX Levels:
– There are gamma clusters around 220–230 and 250–260 . These areas often see higher volatility, possible bounces, or stalls (chop) due to hedging flows.
🔶 WHATEVER SCENARIO – SHORT TERM (0–30 DAYS)
A) Upside Continuation / Rebound
– If TSLA closes above 225–230 , the next target is 240–250 (transition / gamma flip).
– If it breaks above 250 and holds (e.g., successful retest), market makers may shift to “long gamma,” fueling a quicker move to 260–270 .
– Resistance: 250, 300, with an extreme LEAPS-level at 400.
B) Downside Move / Bearish Break
– If price dips below ~220 and sustains, the next targets are 210–200 (major put wall / negative gamma).
– If 200 fails, negative gamma may magnify the sell-off. It’s an extreme scenario but still on the table given high IV and macro/geopolitical risks.
– Support: 210, 200 — likely stronger buying interest near 200, possibly a short-term bounce.
– The options chain suggests near-term hedging via puts for this scenario.
C) Chop / Sideways
– If TSLA stays in 210–230 , market makers (short options) might benefit from high IV/time decay.
– Negative GEX, however, can trigger sudden moves in either direction; caution is advised.
🔶 LONGER-TERM FOCUS (6–12 MONTHS, LEAPS)
NET GEX = -61.97M (negative territory) suggests longer-dated positioning is also put-heavy or carries notable negative gamma.
HVL / pTrans = 250 is a key pivot; cTrans+ = 400 is distant call resistance. Between these levels, there’s a mix of put/call dominance.
If Tesla undergoes a fresh growth phase (AI, robotaxi, energy storage, etc.) and clears 250/300 , 400 could become the next significant call wall — but that’s more of a multi-month horizon.
🔶 STRATEGY IDEAS (High IV Environment)
1. Short-Term Bearish
– If you’re bearish and expecting TSLA to test 220–210, consider a bear put spread or net credit put butterfly (lower debit) to leverage high IV.
– Targeting 200, but keep in mind negative gamma may accelerate downside movement.
2. Medium-Term “Contra” Bullish (bounce to 250)
– If GEX suggests a bounce off 210–220, consider a bull call spread (e.g., 220/240) or a net debit call butterfly (220/240/250).
– Be mindful of sudden swings, as we remain in negative gamma territory.
3. Longer-Term Bullish (>3–6 months)
– A call butterfly with upper strikes around 300–350 offers capped debit and higher potential payoff if a bigger rally materializes.
– A diagonal spread (selling nearer-dated calls, buying further-out calls) exploits elevated front-end IV.
4. Neutral / Range-Bound
– If TSLA stays in 200–250 , you could use Iron Condors (e.g., 200/260) to benefit from time decay and any IV collapse.
– Exercise caution: negative gamma can generate abrupt, directional moves, making a neutral stance riskier than usual.
🔶 ADDITIONAL NOTES & “BIG PICTURE”
High IV & Negative GEX: TSLA has a track record of large swings. Negative GEX can intensify sell-offs, while forced hedging might trigger rapid rebounds.
Preferred Structures: With expensive premiums, spreads (vertical, diagonal) and butterfly configurations generally fare better than plain long options (less vulnerable to time decay).
Potential Catalysts: AI announcements, Autopilot breakthroughs, new product lines, and macro changes can swiftly alter market dynamics. Keep tracking GEX updates and news flow; TSLA tends to respond dramatically to fresh developments.
🔶 Bottom line: From 221 spot, watch 210–200 on the downside and 240–250 on the upside short term. Medium-term bullish target = 300 , while 400 remains a far LEAPS scenario. High IV + negative gamma = fast, potentially volatile moves — so risk management and spread-based approaches are crucial.
04/07 GEX + Historic VIX Highs: Extreme Volatility with OptionsWow, where to begin? We’ve just come through a week that even the most thorough analysts found surprising.
Last Friday’s brutal sell-off triggered such a massive margin call rally that even the hedge funds were forced to exit gold—which is usually considered a safe haven—on Friday.
The VIX is at a historic high — no joke. We last saw levels like this during the 2008 crisis and the COVID panic in 2020.
📌 High IV = High Theta
When implied volatility (IV) is high, theta (the time decay of options) is also high. This means that maintaining long put protection becomes extremely expensive. From a broker’s hedging perspective, if they are short expensive put options, they can gradually buy back their futures positions over time (all else being equal). As IV rises, this buyback becomes increasingly attractive for them.
Let’s look at our weekly SPY analysis using GEX Profile (Gamma Exposure) indicator first:
It’s definitely not a cheerful chart!
* Below 520: We have strikes dominated by puts. The largest negative GEX “profit-taking zone” sits at 490. If price reaches that level and the support fails (the previous major bottom from April 2024), we could move even further down into a very wide negative squeeze zone, possibly as far as 445.
* HVL zone: 520–546: A choppy area around the gamma flip.
* Above 546: This would signal a +10-15% rally, putting us in a positive gamma zone. However, such a scenario currently seems unlikely—at least based on the gamma levels we see right now.
I won’t sugarcoat it: we’re at levels now where the market could easily move 10% in either direction. So, in my view, forget about conservative option strategies with flat delta exposure.
🤔 What Can We Do?
Important: This analysis reflects my personal opinion only. It’s primarily for those looking to speculate in this highly uncertain environment. If you’re holding put options strictly as a hedge, then this may not be directly relevant to you. In these conditions, the number one rule is to survive—hedges are meant to protect assets or guard against margin calls, not to make profit.
Currently, IV (implied volatility) and VIX are at historic highs. For them to stay this elevated, we’d need new negative headlines and further major market drops. While that could certainly happen, statistically it becomes less and less likely as time goes on.
Buying Put Options …. no way?
First off, there are plenty of challenges if you plan to buy put options right now—most of all their cost. Put options are nearly twice as expensive as calls in many cases.
Does this mean I recommend selling puts or put spreads? I’m not saying you shouldn’t, but be aware: this isn’t for the faint-hearted or for beginners (the risk is high!). It might be worth exploring butterfly or vertical debit spread strategies, as our goal remains the same as always: to maximize the risk–reward ratio.
🐂 If You’re Bullish
This might sound like a ninja move, but one possibility is to buy call butterfly spreads. Yes, the market could still drop—that’s absolutely possible. But statistically, it’s becoming less likely that we’ll see another huge leg down without some form of rebound.
- Slight Move Up: In the event of a mild rise, call spreads and call butterfly strategies can significantly outperform a simple long call. The short legs in a spread/fly offset high theta costs and mitigate the negative effects of falling IV.
- Even with a +10% Move: A long call is often still not the best choice in this environment—even if the option goes deep in the money.
Where Call Spread/Butterfly Can Fail
If stocks rally 15–20% or more and IV also increases (which would be unprecedented in just a few days).
If the market crashes and VIX spikes above 100 (IV would skyrocket, raising the cost of all options further).
Cheap Bullish Calendar Spread
In a situation like this, even a cheap calendar spread can be a good play — the risk is relatively low, especially if managed well and the breakeven range is wide. Of course, if implied volatility drops, the spread could narrow, but that would likely come with a market rally, which theta can help capitalize on.
🐻 If You’re Bearish
I strongly advise against buying single-leg puts, even on a 0DTE (zero-days-to-expiration) basis. If you’re convinced the market will keep dropping, I’d only consider debit spreads, aiming for a solid risk–reward ratio (in my case, I look for at least 1:2 risk-to-reward).
⚖️ If You Want to Stay Neutral / Omni bullish
If you prefer not to pick a direction, you could try to capitalize on historically high IV with a May-expiration Iron Condor. This is the classic TastyTrade approach, with the caveat that you must monitor GEX levels and IV daily and adjust the far side as needed.
Risk Management: If the spot price threatens one of your short strikes, you probably shouldn’t wait around in this volatile environment. It’s usually better to close the position and take a small loss than to hope for a reversal—hoping can become very expensive!
Conclusion
The market is extremely volatile, and expensive options mean traditional strategies may not work as well as they usually do. Stay cautious, manage risk meticulously, and don’t be afraid to close out losing trades quickly. As always, surviving to trade another day is the most important rule.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 4/11/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025
- PR High: 18597.75
- PR Low: 18464.50
- NZ Spread: 297.25
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | PPI
Retraced 50% of Wednesday's range
- Rotating off 18400 zone pivot, above previous session close
- High volatility sentiment continues
Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 4/11)
- Session Open ATR: 865.12
- Volume: 54K
- Open Int: 236K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From BA ATH: -17.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19246
- Short: 16963
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Irregular Volume22% on 50x leverage will make millions. The 22% downside is solely based off my model prediction and current volatility measurements.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 4/10/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025
- PR High: 19359.00
- PR Low: 19242.25
- NZ Spread: 261.25
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
- CPI (Core|YoY|MoM)
13:00 | 30-Year Bond Auction
FOMC gave 1900 point lift back to April 2 range
- Mechanical rotation off daily Keltner average crowd
- No change in volatility expectations
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 4/10)
- Session Open ATR: 815.83
- Volume: 58K
- Open Int: 243K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From BA ATH: -16.0% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19246
- Short: 16963
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Path to 100 VIXI wrote this note on TVC:VIX a few days ago:
www.tradingview.com
And am now expanding it a bit more.
As someone who was working middle office during the original 2016 Trump Election, Brexit, during the Taper Tantrum and a few other major events - I want to lay out my principles on trading the VIX because spikes like this bring a lot of "first time" VIX traders to something that trades like NOTHING ELSE in the market.
This is not a stock in a short squeeze, this is not a generic index.
This is like nothing you've ever traded before. In fact, I'd encourage you to take advantage of TradingView's chart options and instead look at the chart of -1*$TVC:VIX.
That alone should give you pause.
----------------------------------
So - let's start with the principles of the finance business as laid out in the masterclass which was the movie "Margin Call" .
"John Tuld: There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat."
1. Be First.
You are not first if you are buying above the historic average of VIX 20-21.
If you were buying CBOE:UVXY since Jan 2025, you'd be up 175% right now and likely looking to re-balance into your desired long term asset positions.
2. Be Smarter.
* Are you taking into consideration the VIXEX Cycle?
* Do you know the effect of VIXEX before or after monthly OpEx?
* Do you know the current implied volatility curve of options ON the VIX?
* Do you know that of the last 4 times the VIX has hit 50, it went on to 80+ 50% of the time after that?
* Yes, I've seen the charts going around about forward S&P X year returns but did you know that after the VIX spike to 80 in October 2008, the market (in a decreasing volatility environment) went on a further 35% decline in the next 4-5 months?
* Where is the MOVE? What are the bond indexes & bond volatility measures doing? And if you don't yet understand that equities ALWAYS reacts to what is going on in the rates / yield world... you'll find out eventually. I hope.
3. Cheat
When things start going wrong, everyone wants an easy solution.
That's why its called a relief rally. It feels like relief - the bottom is in, the worst part is over.
But that is what the really big players have the biggest opportunity to play with the day to day environment.
They know our heuristics. They encourage the formation of cargo cult style investing whether that's HODL in the cryptocurrencies or Bogleheads in the vanguard ETFs.
It's all the same and encourages you to forgot first principles thinking about things like:
1. Is this actually a good price or is it just relatively cheap to recent history?
2. Who's going to have to dilute to survive the next period of tighter lending, import costs from tariffs, or whatever the problem of the day is.
3. VIX correlation - volatility is just a description of the markets. Its not a description of the direction. There is periods where volatility is positively correlated to the price movement (like during earnings beats). Know about this and know when it changes.
4. Etc.
Some have pointed out that is more appropriately a measure of liquidity in the SPX.
When VIX is low, that means there is lots of "friction" to price movement. It means that there is tons of orders on the L2 book keeping the current price from moving in any direction too quickly.
When VIX is high, that means there is very low "friction" to price movement. It means there are very few orders on the L2 book and market makers can "cheat" by appearing to create a low volume rally and then rug pull that price movement very quickly (not via spoofing, more just dynamic management of gamma & delta hedging requirements).
Additionally - volume itself becomes deceptive. Volume is just indicating that a trade happened.
Its not telling you to what degree the spread between the bid and ask has blown out to 1x, 2x, or 5x normal and that trades are executing only at the highest slippage prices in that spread.
All of these things are considerations that the market makers can use to make a "buy the dip" situation that works heavily to their advantage.
TLDR: "If you can't spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker"
----------------------------------
So - why / when would VIX go to 100?
In 2020, its easy to forget that a culmination of things stopped the crash at -35%.
* March 17, 2020 VIXEX wiped out a significant amount of long volatility positions.
* March 20, 2020 Opex wiped out a significant proportion of the short term put positions
* March 20, 2020 Fed Reserve announced to provide "enhanced" (i.e. unlimited) liquidity to the
markets starting Monday March 23, 2020.
* April 6th, 2020 Peak of Implied Volatility (point where options "most expensive") - which meant that buyers / sellers started providing more & more liquidity following this point.
In 2025, we have yet to see:
* Any motion towards intervention from the Fed for liquidity.
* Any motion from the significant fundamental investors (we're not close to an attractive P/S or P/E on most stocks for Buffett & Co to start buying)
* Any significant motion from companies on indicating strategies about capital raises, layoffs, or other company level liquidity reactions.
* Any "reset" of options in either volatility or hedging. Numbers below as of April 9, 2025:
- SPY 2.8M Put OI for April 17
- VIX 3.5M Call OI for April 16
Just an example but maybe IF we see those clear and NOT get re-bought for May Opex... we might be ready to call a top here at 50 VIX.
Otherwise.... we're just at another stop on the path to 100.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 4/9/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025
- PR High: 17240.00
- PR Low: 16971.00
- NZ Spread: 601.5 ⚠
Key scheduled economic events:
10:30 | Crude Inventories
13:00 | 10-Year Note Auction
14:00 | FOMC Meeting Minutes
Mechanical pivot off Monday's high
- Rotating back into 16700s inventory
- AMP margins and volatile session open indicates we're still in the volatility storm
Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 4/9)
- Session Open ATR: 692.29
- Volume: 84K
- Open Int: 256K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From BA ATH: -24.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19246
- Short: 16963
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Need clarity on what's most likely to come? I got u!Price has followed my path to a tea (Not exact prices but more of the cycles of price movement)
We will hit 450 on QQQ by Tuesday and Trump is most likely to back peddle on tariffs for select countries.
TARIFFS ARE ONLY MEANT TO REDUCE THE 10 YY FOR TRUMP TO REFINANCE OUR NATIONAL DEBT.
Nothing else.
Please see my black line of what I think price action will do.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 4/8/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025
- PR High: 17753.75
- PR Low: 17644.50
- NZ Spread: 244.0
No key scheduled economic events
Volatility remains high with Trump tariff excitement
- Advertising rotation off previous session low
- Holding above the close below the high, inside Friday's range
- AMP margins temp increase remains
Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 4/8)
- Session Open ATR: 627.37
- Volume: 48K
- Open Int: 272K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From BA ATH: -21.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19246
- Short: 16963
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 4/7/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025
- PR High: 17100.00
- PR Low: 16550.00
- NZ Spread: 1231.0 ⚠
No key scheduled economic events
AMP margins remain increased due to tariff news
- Continue high volatility value decline, 2.45% weekend gap
- Weekend gap fills above 17417
- Overall sentiment: anxiously hesitant in hopes of a nearby bottom
Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM 4/7)
- Session Open ATR: 593.15
- Volume: 131K
- Open Int: 276K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From BA ATH: -25.8% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19246
- Short: 16963
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
$VIX Hits 45! $BTC Historically Pumps Soon AfterThe TVC:VIX has only hit above 45 on 5 occasions in the history of CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Each time it did, BTC pumped at least 20%
$SPY Bollinger Bands and RSI Oversold SignalThe AMEX:SPY aka S&P 500 is delivering a daily Bollinger Bands and RSI oversold signal today
In the last ten years there has been a bigger recovery shortly after such an signal
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 4/4/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025
- PR High: 18698.00
- PR Low: 18588.25
- NZ Spread: 245.25
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Average Hourly Earnings
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- Unemployment Rate
11:25 | Fed Chair Powell Speaks
AMP margins remains increased but lowered to 25%
- Value decline continues, dipping into 18400s inventory
- Auction holding just below previous session low
Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 4/4)
- Session Open ATR: 482.31
- Volume: 48K
- Open Int: 261K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From BA ATH: -18.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 18106
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 4/3/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025
- PR High: 19037.00
- PR Low: 18819.00
- NZ Spread: 487.25
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
09:45 | S&P Global Services PMI
10:00 | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
AMP temporarily increased margin requirements to double the standard rate ahead of Trump tariff announcement
- Over 740 point session gap down
- Extreme volatile open aligned with tariff anticipation
- Value decline continues to 18000 inventory following touch and go off daily Keltner average cloud
- Auction rotating back to previous session low
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 4/3)
- Session Open ATR: 484.77
- Volume: 85K
- Open Int: 249K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From BA ATH: -15.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 18675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
S&P 500 Short Setup – Key Resistance in Focus!🔥 I’m watching this critical resistance zone on the S&P 500 (US500)! A rejection at this level could spark strong bearish momentum. A clear reaction at resistance is key for confirmation.
📍Entry: 5,726.50 USD – just below the key resistance, but only after rejection is confirmed
🎯Targets:
TP1: 5,645.00 USD
TP2: 5,610.00 USD
TP3: 5,585.00 USD
⛔Stop-Loss: 5,768.00 USD
⚡ Patience is crucial, waiting for confirmation reduces risk and boosts accuracy! Would you take this trade? Let me know below! 👇
Bitcoin Analysis: Trump Tariffs AnnouncementAs of April 2nd, 2025, Bitcoin finds itself at a pivotal technical crossroads, with price action consolidating within a well-defined range as markets prepare for Trump's upcoming tariff policy speech. The cryptocurrency has experienced significant volatility in recent weeks, with a sharp decline from the $98,000 level followed by a consolidation phase.
Technical Structure and Price Action
The daily chart reveals Bitcoin trading in a rectangular consolidation pattern between approximately $79,800 and $88,800. This range-bound price action follows a substantial corrective move from recent highs, with the market now seeking direction. Current price hovers around $84,890, sitting below the mid-point of this established range.
The blue box on the chart highlights this recent consolidation zone, where price has been oscillating for several trading sessions. This pattern typically represents a pause in the market as buyers and sellers reach temporary equilibrium before the next directional move.
Volume Analysis Provides Crucial Insights
Looking at the Relative Volume Indicator (RVOL) at the bottom of the chart, we can observe several noteworthy volume patterns:
-Several green bars exceeding the 2.0x threshold indicate periods of significantly above-average volume during the decline and subsequent consolidation
-More recent trading sessions show predominantly yellow and red bars, suggesting a return to average and below-average volume as the market consolidates
-The most recent green volume spike coincides with a bullish candle, potentially indicating renewed buying interest
This volume profile suggests that while the initial selloff occurred on strong volume (confirming the downtrend's validity), the recent consolidation is happening on decreasing volume – often a precursor to a significant move.
Critical Levels to Watch
With Trump's tariff announcement looming, traders should monitor these key levels:
Support: $79,800 (lower range boundary)
Intermediate resistance: $88,800 (higher range high)
Intermediate support: $82,000 (recent swing low)
What Could Happen Next?
The cryptocurrency market's reaction will likely hinge on the tone and specifics of Trump's tariff policies:
Bullish Scenario
If Trump's tariff policies are perceived as positive for risk assets or specifically favorable for cryptocurrency:
A break above $90,000 could trigger a relief rally toward previous highs
The declining volume during consolidation could represent a coiling effect before an explosive move higher
Target zones would be $95,000 and potentially a retest of the $98,000 area
Bearish Scenario
If the announcement creates market uncertainty or suggests policies that might negatively impact risk assets:
A breakdown below $79,800 would confirm continuation of the larger downtrend
Volume would likely expand on a breakdown, providing confirmation
The next major support zones would become $75,000 and $70,000
Conclusion
Bitcoin stands at a technical inflection point, with the upcoming tariff announcement serving as a potential catalyst for its next major move. The consolidation pattern, coupled with the volume profile shown in the RVOL indicator, suggests traders should prepare for increased volatility.
Given the mixed signals – bearish price structure but consolidation with occasional above-average volume spikes – a measured approach is prudent. Traders would be wise to wait for a definitive break of either range boundary with confirming volume before establishing significant positions.
The next 24-48 hours could determine whether Bitcoin resumes its longer-term uptrend or continues the correction that began from the $98,000 level.
INTRADAY MOVEMENT EXPECTEDi can see still there is liquidity above at the poc of the weekly volume
but if the price can cross up the level it can visit the next resistance above
so if the price at london session cross down the value area i will expect visit the levels shown on the chart as support and make the rejection
so we have to follow the plan and and use the levels on the chart risk management safe the profit secure the orders after the price move stop at break even
we wish happy trade for all
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 4/2/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025
- PR High: 19697.00
- PR Low: 19595.25
- NZ Spread: 228.25
Key scheduled economic events:
08:15 | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
10:30 | Crude Inventories
Key daily zones updated
- 200+ point rotation above Monday's high
- Auction back inside previous week range
- Retraced 1/3 of Friday's selloff
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 4/2)
- Session Open ATR: 437.34
- Volume: 31K
- Open Int: 248K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From BA ATH: -13.5% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 18675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
PEB Pacific Edge NZBreakout and retest with bollinger band squeeze
I've posted multiple times about this stock and it is no doubt high risk and speculative,
but technically it is showing bullish signs in my opinion and looking ready to move
Full disclosure I've owned this stock for a while now, and looking at long term (years) play
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 4/1/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025
- PR High: 19413.75
- PR Low: 19326.75
- NZ Spread: 194.25
Key scheduled economic events:
09:45 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
10:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI
- ISM Manufacturing Prices
- JOLTs Job Openings
Holding below previous week's low
- Advertising rotation above previous session high, into breakout range
Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 4/1)
- Session Open ATR: 442.17
- Volume: 38K
- Open Int: 247K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From BA ATH: -14.5% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 18675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
