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Volatility
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/14/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 17706.00
- PR Low: 17681.25
- NZ Spread: 55.25
10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories
Found inventory around 17600
- Trading inside prev session lows
- Maintaining range from Feb 7
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 228.07
- Volume: 21K
- Open Int: 296K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -2.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
TBT- an ETF bearish on bondsTBT on the one hour chart demonstrates a clear round bottom reversal in late June
with a good trend up this past week. Price rose above the POC line of the volume profile
on July 3th showing bullish momentum dominating. Price has continued to ascend above
the Chris Moody sling shot indicator affirming that momentum. Given the current fed posture
hawkish for another rate increase fixed rate bonds will suffer yet again. Other indicators
show rising upward volatility and relative volume which further support the strength of the
trend. Time is ripe for a swing trade in TBT.
ROIV - BioTech reporting 2/13 as a LONG earnings tradeRoivant Scientes, on the 15 minute chart is experiencing increase volatility and volume now two
days out from its earnings report. The MACD with zero lag shows a bullish inflection in the lines
On the daily chart, ROIV gained 38% in 2023 but has been down 4 %YTD. The volume and
volatility show both are heightened in the pre-earnings run- up. The last report in November
was a double beat which is good prognosis for the one upcomings. This is a risky earnings
play, ROIV does not yet make money. However, because it lost less than forecasted, buyer
interest has increased. The call option for 2/16 for a strike of $12.50 is priced at $ 5.00
per contract. I suspect a long trade in shares may gain to $ 11.50 targeting the double top
at the turn of the year for a projected gain upside of about 7% (with a stop loss of 2.5%).
Considering that ROIV has gained 12% this past week, 7% in the next two days is about the
same trend angle. As to the call contract, I have considered 100% return as my expections
for the two days before the earnings. If earnings disappoint trader expectations and price fades
I will sell to close the contract. If earnings is as expected, I will roll the contract forward into
the March monthly and add a bit more capital into the trade.
FCEL Energy Penny Stock Buy the near term Bottom LongFCEL a penny alternative energy stock is at a near-term bottom sitting at the POC line
of the volume profile and a standard deviation below the intermediate-term mean VWAP
about a month out from a good earnings beat. Given the current administrations unwavering
support for green enerby sometimes with grants subsidies and other hand- outs I see FCEL
as getting some trader attention of the good kind unlike PLUG which announced a large public
offering to dilute investors. FCEL could steal some of those investors. The supertrend indicator
is signaling a reversal at the confluence of the POC line with the VWAP band as
mentioned. My target is the mean VWAP at 1.50 for about 35% upside with a stop loss at
the recent pivot low of $1.09 making for a reward-to-risk ratio of better than 6.
I see this as a swing trade with potentially 75 days in front of it given the earning report
for 24Q1 is due a bit beyond that and best risk management would be to take a partial
and size down going into earnings.
HE - get it long before the sparks flyHE is obviously an underdog given what happened in Maui and the aftermath of the disaster.
It has that baggage and the ankle weights of litigation public perceptions, electical power
infrastructure and all the rest. Seemingly it is weathering the storm.
The 15 minute chart shows a ranging price action really going no where until last Friday when
volatility struck from a surge of volume. Price jumped out of the high volume area and volume
has persisted and so the high volume area widened. The fast RSI in green moved in quick
momentum as compared with the slower RSI in red. This is a golden cross of the lines showing
a surge of strength. I will take this long. The earnings announce BMO. The make the past
possible trade it must be done in the premarket and without a stop loss since my broker does
not offer them in the premarket. An options trade will be after earnings depending on what is
reported. This is a risky trade so the position will be small relative to buying power.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/13/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 17940.50
- PR Low: 17916.75
- NZ Spread: 53.25
Key economic calendar event
08:30 | CPI (3x)
Second low vols start for the week
- Cheap margins increased for CPI
- Daily print signaling reversal off ATHs
- Near prev session lows
Evening Stats (As of 12:25 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 214.45
- Volume: 14K
- Open Int: 302K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -1.1% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
ZDGE an advertising penny stock LONGZDGE stock price is up 150% in 3 months but can it continue. The analysts are projecting a
forecast of $ 7.00, The chart here is on a 15 minte time frame. Price broke out of consolidation
and got above the high volume area 3 weeks ago. ZDGE has quarterly earnings in two trading
days. This could easily be a quick intraweek swing trade expecting 10-50% as a profit for
the week. The call options for this Friday bought the past Friday morning did 285% for
the day. High ris hi reward it is the nature of the beasts that are penny stocks.
High rising volumes and rising relative strength lend support to immediately raising the
position. The caution here given the volatility is the mass index indicator whose signal line
has exceeded the threshold but not yet triggered. Volume and strength fell a little on the
Friday afternoon market close. I will add to the position but remain cautious that this might
cool down in a hurry on the earnings report.
Metis contractionMetis shows a bullish contraction right above the daily demand zone, this type of price contraction tends to lead to an expansion especially if volatility or stochastic RSI bottoms. I chose to use HV here to display how low the volatility is historically. If BTC doesnt dead cat right now I would expect a run here. Another test of 106$ in the cards.
A downside target is the dashed red.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/12/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 18042.50
- PR Low: 18003.25
- NZ Spread: 87.75
No significant calendar events
Maintaining Friday's highs
- Relatively low energy start to the week
Evening Stats (As of 1:15 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 217.03
- Volume: 14K
- Open Int: 306K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -0.3% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
TLT Long at VWAP Bounce T- Bills 20 yearsTLT on the 15 minute chart in the past two trading sessions consolidated and then fell into
a pullback to the support of the anchored mean VWAP. Relative volatility spiked and has
now contracted. I see this as a good entry to add to my TLT position having sold a good portion
of it three trading days ago when price showed topping wicks outside the fibonacci highest
band. This will be about $ 1.00 cheaper than before that sale and is part of a zig-zag
strategy for TLT overall.
Spirit (SAVE) a distressed merger partner with Jet Blue LONGSAVE on the 50-minute chart reversed a trend down that started on January 23 which was a
continuation of a previous downtrend which corrected. SAVE is in critical condition. There is a
merger with JBLU which has been successfully challenged in court. The two airlines have a
narrow window in which to file a notice of appeal after which briefing and oral argument
will be calendared. This is a slow process. I cannot find a positive piece of news in this
current week. No matter, price crossed over both short and longer moving averages and had
little bit of more volume. Is this a fakeout? Is this a short squeeze without volume to keep
it going? Are shorts buying to cover? Could this turn into something or is it nothing ?
Who knows ! I think it is worth watching.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/9/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 17871.25
- PR Low: 17851.75
- NZ Spread: 43.5
NO SIGNIFICANT EVENTS
Another low energy session start
- Continuing to lift ATH
- Maintaining prev RTH range
Evening Stats (As of 1:15 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 216.81
- Volume: 14K
- Open Int: 298K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -0.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Potential bull flag on ASX futures (SPI 200)The ASX 200 cash market rose for a second day, although the SPI 200 futures closed flat with a potential bullish pinbar on the daily chart. The 1-hour chart also shows a potential bull flag, which projects a target around 7640 (or the Feb 2nd overnight VPOC - volume point of control).
For today, bulls could seek pullbacks towards 7580 - 7587 (overnight VPOC) in anticipation of a break higher. Or wait for the break to enter long.
Upside targets include 7600, 7614 (cycle high), and 7640 / 100% projection.
NVIDIA possible pathMultiple volume profiles drawn at various points to current day:
1. Swing high
2. Swing low
3. Point of recent lift off
4. Large timeframe low
Excluding "4", fair value is 500's
Current point of control is 450's
Note dropping volume into the rise. Not typically a bullish sign.
"4" can be achieved. See published chart of ARKK for similarities...
Reproduced these from user @beanotrader on Twitter / X
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/8/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 17854.75
- PR Low: 17835.00
- NZ Spread: 44.25
No significant calendar events
Pushing the ATH
- Maintaining prev session highs
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 225.67
- Volume: 13K
- Open Int: 298K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -0.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/7/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 17662.75
- PR Low: 17646.00
- NZ Spread: 37.25
Key economic calendar events
10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories
13:00 | 10-Year Note Auction
Prev session faded into daily inventory
- Trading inside range of prev 3 sessions
- Maintaining high and low liquidity
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 228.54
- Volume: 25K
- Open Int: 285K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -0.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/6/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 17711.00
- PR Low: 17693.00
- NZ Spread: 40.0
No key economic calendar events
Prev session closed practically no change
- Still hanging out near ATHs
- Daily print painted for potential break long
- Liquidity pool below 17600
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 230.29
- Volume: 19K
- Open Int: 287K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -0.3% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Demand on OilOil is presenting to us clear (marked with green rectangle) demand zone presented on chart. Yesterday there were multiple strong demand signals there identified real-time by Scanner. This zone becomes still valid, especially as it's placed within today's Balance Zone (between Gamma +0.25 and Gamma -0.25). Following price structure, it is supposed to retest demand zone from top and continue up move. Alternative scenario would expect to observe on chart consolidation in demand zone, as it's marked by market as fair price area.
VIX explosion is coming Feb 2024 !I've used 3 indicators, namely, MACD, RSI & BB width to show the idea of momentum building up in the background. If VIX spikes that's definitely not a good thing for the markets.
Volatility is a mean reverting animal so its just simple statistics that a big spike is coming.
TIMEFRAME: If vix starts to pop this week, the rally could end 3-4 weeks from now.