EURUSD Trade UpdateTrade Update for the last EURUSD Trade Idea. We are holding it all the way through this time.
Volatility
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/27/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 17970.00
- PR Low: 17942.50
- NZ Spread: 61.5
Key economic calendar events
08:30 | Core Durable Goods
10:30 | CB Consumer Confidence
Prev session closed virtually unchanged
- Daily printed for reversal short
- Holding below prev session close
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 238.71
- Volume: 18K
- Open Int: 284K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -0.9% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
HCP runs to earnings on March 4th LONGHCP is a computer infrastructure company. The December earnings were a 160% beat. Given the
quicky evolving AI supertrend, the earnings might be expected to be another big beat. However,
that could be baked into the price. However, the explosive volatility of the last trading session
say otherwise. I will take a long trade here and chase this stock. I see it as pulling out of a
pullback and continuing on higher time frames.
WDAY, this software company reports today LONGWDAY provides software for large enterprises; it reports Monday the 26th after market hours.
On the 15-minute chart, it is surging. A recent news catalyst was an upgrade to a target of
$ 350. My call options went double digits from a buy on Friday the 23rd at the opening
bell. This looks like a good one for earnings scalping whether it is with shares or a call option.
(The $320 call option for 3/1 is up 42% so far since the morning open). WDAY is part of the
AI trend; the real question is how much AI integration is built out at this time and what is
waiting for design and testing before deployment.
ADBE- Adobe is an AI stock but gets no credit Buy the Reversal ADBE and its Creative Cloud is most definitely part of the AI supertrend, It will help creative
content work faster and with more creativity. The company has a healthy balance sheet and
not a Johnnie Com-elately. As a megacap it does not move fast but it is as steady as it gets.
Not to be in the headlines with ARM, PLTR, GOOG, MSFT and a whole bunch of others, it
makes its money the old fashioned way it earns it keeping its legions of subscribers productive
with its products and the support of them.
On the 240 minute chart, I have shown price action cycling through a slow trend up and
then a breakdown through the VWAP bands. Price is now reversing with a signal firing on
the mass index indicator. The first target is 590 at the mean VWAP bandline while others
are 615 and 640. In many ways software companies like PLTR and MSFT are hotter than
Super Micro-Computers ASML and the semi-conductors. I need more software companies
in my deployed plays. ABDE is setup for a trade up and I will take a long trade of stocks
and some call options.
Lemonade heads to earnings LONGLMND has upcoming earnings. On the 15 minute chart, price has gained 12% in the past two
weeks. Typically, LMND beats estimates and experiences a surge from the earnings report.
The chart shows a good trend up albeit with corrections along the way where the bears
attempt to take a stand. This is an ascending channel with price currently in the middle of
the channel's invisible histograms. The more shorts give up their positions and buy to cover, the
further they contribute to the large trend. I will take a long position here for about a month
through earnings. The potential profit that seems likely is well worth the risk on balance.
KOLD Natural Gas Pivots Again LONGKOLD on the 15 minute chart has reversed and swung upside. The the anchored VWAP price
dropped through the mean VWAP and is now in the deep undervalued territory of the second
lower VWAP band line. This is an oversold zone for buying. On the chart, a green arrow is a buy
while a red arrow is a sell. New share buys are funded with profits from BOIL positions
now closed. Relative volatility and volume indicators support the analysis.
I will add further to the position whenever there is an entry provided by a correction found
on a lower time frame of 3-10 minutes.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/26/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 17988.50
- PR Low: 17941.25
- NZ Spread: 105.75
Key economic calendar events
10:00 | New Home Sales
Holding just below Friday's close
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 249.54
- Volume: 27K
- Open Int: 286K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -0.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
UCAR a penny China stock now at bottom 300X upside LONGUCAR, a NASDAQ penny stock and a Chinese auto dealership enterprise is experiencing a huge
relative volume spike. UCAR had a great week in very active trading.
Now priced at about 0.07 per share, my near term target is 1.58
representing a consolidation pivot on the chart.
The all time high is the is 300X upside more or less. This is a risky play. It could get delisted
although NASDAQ will give it some more quarterly reports to make a case for regulatory
compliance and stock price stability I will take a small position here given the
risk. Warren Buffet got in on the cheap with BYD over the counter, he has been massively
rewarded for his very large position. Retail traders can make good profits with undervalued
penny stocks. I think that this right now is one of them. I will use a zig zag strategy
to take profits at high pivots and add into the position at low pivots along the way.
TSLA moves yield volatility and trader profit LONGTSLA is shown here on a 15 minute chart with a set of anchored VWAP bands. A relative volume
indicator shows spiking volumes each and every morning and fades as the trading session wears
on. Overall, TSLA trends between the upper and higher VWAP bands and their counterparts
below the mean VWAP. Like most other stocks, TSLA has periods of ranging and other periods
where it trends. Day traders can capture intraday volatility while swing traders can sometimes
get a 10% move over 2-3 days. In the past month TSLA moved 5% up overall. However, in that
move price fluctuated widely which has been exploited by traders. The high trading volumes
keep spreads very low while the volatility makes options trading very challenging. Que sera,
sera.
SOGP looks for trader capitulation SOGP is a company in the AI subsector focused on voice to text and vice-versa with the twist of
between different languages marketing itself internationally as a penny stock with great
potential upside. If a trader on a low budget wants AI exposure for high potential profit if
patient this one may be better than PLTR because it is a value at a lower price
per share and has not surged already like PLTR. This is similar from SOUN.
On the 120 minute chart, SOGP had a big pop and then a slow fade. The volume has
disappeared as quickly as it came. A descending and falling wedge pattern is seen.
SOGP did 100% in a day and could do it again in the unpredictable near term future.
I will take a long trade in SOGP and hold it for inevitable pop again.
SRZN a Penny biotech LONGSRZN has had good momentum. It has no revenues. Clinical trials but a lot of cash. SRZN has
advanced trials underway for a product to treat alcoholic hepatitis presumably settling it down
before it becomes irreversible cirrhosis (only for patients who are alcohol-free) and also useful
for liver metabolic disorders from a genetic basis.
SRZN has been trending up for a week with a bit of a pause in the middle of it. It picked up
60% of its price while breaking out through the anchored VWAP lines and the volume profile.
The far greater market is the former.
It is priced at 90 or more off it's all-time high of about $160. IF it picks up hype from the
last clinical trial getting a report and a calendared review by the, SRZN could reach for that
all time high. This is speculative and risky as are most biotechnology penny stocks. They are
trading news and potential not current net revenues. A small position with room in the stop
loss for the average range and volatility is best. This is a typical high risk higher potential
reward type of trade.
Beating the S&P500 (SPX) Buy&Hold strategy by 16 timesS&P500 (SPX) strategy using Stochastic RSI Min-Max, normalized Volatility and Trailing Stop signals, beats the Buy&Hold strategy by 16 times
Embarking on the quest to time the market accurately, the 'Holy Grail' of strategies, led me to create a script to approach this goal. Unlike other strategies that I tested, this one not only surpasses the long-term S&P500 Buy&Hold approach but does so by a remarkable 16.38 times!
Initially, I employed an A.I. program based on an LSTM Neural Network using TensorFlow. Despite achieving a 55% next-day prediction accuracy for short/long positions, I sought improvement using a heuristic pine-scripting approach, incorporating stochastic RSI oscillators, moving averages, and volatility signals.
With default parameters, this strategy, freely available as "XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Detection Strategy v2" delivered a staggering 2,663,001% profit since February 1871. In the same period, the Buy&Hold strategy "only" generated 162,599% profit. Picture this: a $1,000 investment in 1871 would now be worth $26,630,014 by February 2024. Check it out for yourself loading this strategy.
The script operates as a Stochastic RSI Min-Max script, automatically generating buy and sell alerts on the S&P500 SPX. What sets it apart? The strategy detects "corrections," minimizes losses using Trailing Stop and Moving Average parameters, and strategically re-enters the market after detecting bottoms using tuned Stochastic RSI signals and normalized Volatility thresholds.
Tailor its parameters to your preference, use it for strategic exits and entries, or stick to the Buy&Hold strategy and start new buy trades at regular intervals using buy signals only. In the pursuit of minimizing losses, the script has learned the effectiveness of a 9% trailing stop on trades. As you can clearly see on the upper graph (revolving around 100), the average overall green surfaces (profits) of all trades are much bigger than the average red surfaces (losses). This follows Warren Buffets first rule of trading to "Never lose money" and thus minimizing losses.
Update: Advanced S&P500 Stochastic RSI Min-Max Buy/Sell Alert Generator
I have also created an Alerter script based on the same engine as this script, which auto-generates buy and sell alert signals (via e-mail, in-app push-notifications, pop-ups etc.).
The script is currently fine-tuned for the S&P500 SPX tracker, but parameters can be fine-tuned upon request for other trackers or stocks.
If you are interested in this alerter-version script or fine-tuning other trackers, please drop me a message or mail xplorr at live dot com.
How to use this Strategy?
Select the SPX (S&P500) graph and set the value to "Day" values (top) and set "Auto Fit Data To Screen" (bottom-right).
Select in the Indicators the "XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Detection Strategy v2" script and set "Auto Fit Data To Screen" (bottom-right)
Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values "Percent Profitable" and "Net Profit" (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters).
How to interpret the graphical information?
In the SPX graph, you will see the Buy(Blue) and Sell(Purple) labels created by the strategy.
The green/red graph below shows the accumulated profit/loss in % of to the initial buy value of the trade (it revolves around 100%, 110 means 10% profit, 95 means 5% loss)
The small purple blocks indicate out-of-trade periods
The green graph below the zero line is the stochastic RSI buy signal. You can set a threshold (green horizontal line). The vertical green lines show minima below that threshold and indicate possible buy signals.
The blue graph above the zero line is the normalized volatility signal. You can set a threshold (blue horizontal line) affecting buy signals.
The red graph above the zero line is the slower stochastic RSI sell signal. You can set a threshold (red horizontal line). The red areas indicate values above that threshold.
However real exits are triggered if close values are crossing below the trailing stop value or optionally when the fast moving average crosses under the slow one. The red areas above the threshold are rather indicative to show that the SPX is expensive and not ideal to enter. Please note that in bullish periods the red line and areas can stay at a permanent high value, so it is not ideal to use as a strict sell signal. However, when it drops below zero and the green vertical lines appear, these are strong buy signals together with a high volatility.
These Parameters can be changed
Buy Stochastic Lookback
Buy Stochastic Smoother
Buy Threshold
Buy Only After Fall
Minimum % Fall
Sell Stochastic Lookback
Sell Stochastic Smoother
Sell Threshold
Sell Only With Profit
Minimum % Profit
Use Sell MA
Fast MA Sell
Slow MA Sell
MA Sell Threshold
Use Buy Volatility
Volatility Smoother
Volatility Threshold
Use Trailing Stop
Use ATR (iso of a fixed percentage for the trailing stop)
ATR Lookback
Trailing Stop Factor(or fixed percentage if "use ATR" is false)
Trailing Stop Smoother
Important : optimizing and using these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades!
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/23/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 18049.75
- PR Low: 18019.00
- NZ Spread: 68.75
No significant calendar events
Back near ATHs, last explored 2/12
- Holding above 2/16 pivot
Evening Stats (As of 1:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 252.25
- Volume: 23K
- Open Int: 296K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -0.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
AAPL has settled into support and is good to go LONGAAPL is shown here on the 15-minute chart. The nuts and bolts of the idea are there as well.
AAPL is done with sideways action. Big players have accumulated their positions in small
parcels t not disturb the status quo. Apple no matter the headwinds nor the tailwinds
of other tech stocks in recent earnings is ready to fly some more on its own merits.
I will bite the apple now.
$BMY - bullishNYSE:BMY - bullish chart
Mean ^
Var ^
Autocorrelation crossed 0 into positive territory, which means trending
Last indicator shows a measure of information; the higher the information, the higher the uncertainty. You want to be trading when the indicators is decreasing.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/22/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 17710.00
- PR Low: 17675.50
- NZ Spread: 77.25
Significant calendar events
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
09:45 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
- S&P Global Services PMI
10:00 | Existing Home Sales
11:00 | Crude Oil Inventories
FOMC volatility driving price back to weekly supply
- Daily print, pivot long
- Pushing ~70 points above prev session high
- Finding resistance near Tuesday's highs
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 248.28
- Volume: 47K
- Open Int: 286K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -1.8% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NIFTY 22 FEB 2024 viewIf we look at derivative data
0.80% % DECREASE, with a 3.6% addition in open interest.
if we look at volume, there is a 23% rise compared to yesterdays volume
iv down by 4 points , pcr is at low point of week and IVP AT 89 percentile .
support now at 21930-21960 while after todays cool offnow 22250 -22280 likely to act as a resistance zone
rejection at previous swing highs A rejection took place in polycan at swing highs is something to b e cautious about
volumes were 17X more than average volume in a week
resistance at the higher end at swing highs and till that is taken out fresh long side trade comes with a risk
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/21/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2024
- PR High: 17590.75
- PR Low: 17563.25
- NZ Spread: 61.5
FOMC day
14:00 | FOMC Meeting Minutes
Sold to 17550 inventory zone
- Volume returned to avg
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 236.34
- Volume: 22K
- Open Int: 286K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -3.1% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18106
- Mid: 16963
- Short: 16391
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
AVAX 2 Hour ZoomI suspect a pullback to the 36$ to $31 range. There I will place my longs.
Using the Order block finder indicator I can see a range of shorts and longs. Gann fans help visualize where the price may go.
This chart is a follow up to the weekly Avax chart here
V-V-V-V-V
$APD - potential bottomNYSE:APD NYSE:APD - potential bottom. Can layer bids from $215.92 - $180.88 if needed.
