BTC Will Go Sideways Until August 8th 2024, Then Up!!There will be a high of 48,000.
A possible test of the local low at 16,000.
Volatility will significantly drop for 100 days before August 8th.
Bitcoin will go on a new bullrun after that period.
Please Check the 11/27/2023 Livestream in my profile for in depth details.
Bye!
Volatility
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/27/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 16010.00
- PR Low: 15982.75
- NZ Spread: 60.75
Key economic calendar events
08:00 | Building Permits
10:00 | New Home Sales
Still hovering above last weeks low
- Key inventory zone around 15830
Evening Stats (As of 12:25 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 216.43
- Volume: 30K
- Open Int: 278K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -5.0% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
LINK contraction , bullishLINK is contracting huge on the price action as well as RSI. Volatility is slowing to a standstill and volume has dropped heavily. The 20 and 50 ema are riding right on each other. Combine all of these facts and what does this generally mean? Buyers and sellers are more and more unsure about placing limit orders further out from the current price. The volatility can only expand from here, these consolidations usually resolve in a big move. Since the longer term trend is your friend, I favor a bullish move here attempting the huge resistances I shared on the long-term chart. We are also seeing a potential end to a reverse head and shoulders here. The dashed greens are the historical resistances before the price action is way off to the races, 20 $. I am long.
VIX Spike - BIG Crash PendingThe VIX will spike again, nothing to do about it.
Fundamentally, a perfect storm is brewing.
We had/have many events in the markets:
- Covid Pandemic
- Supply Chain Disrupted
- Ukraine Invasion
- Russia Sanctions
- Inflation Spike
- Energy Crisis
- Global Drought
- Interest Rates Hikes
What's next, a full-blown WAR?
The ADX DeFi (Definace of the ADX)The ADX indicator has always been a eye sore for me. I thought it was time to clean it up a bit. While its been around for a long time, it never really seems to get better. The new releases I keep seeing are just more lines and more zigzags etc.
So this is my take on the ADX which I call "The ADX DeFi (Adx Defiance)"
I dont want to know that the momentum is almost there or just about bla bla. I want to know either there IS or IS NOT what I need and why.
Decent growth on the short and long positions.With the technical showing a strong buy, this looks like a tech stock that shouldn't be overlooked. With data cloud client sentiment, and the dynamic of competitive businesses, this looks to be a good long-term growth. Be sure to keep your eye on financial balance sheet.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/22/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15970.00
- PR Low: 15942.50
- NZ Spread: 61.5
Key economic events
08:30 – Core Durable Goods Orders
- Initial Jobless Claims
10:30 – Crude Oil Inventories
14:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes
Last full trading day of the week
- Market closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 223.43
- Volume: 21K
- Open Int: 279K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -5.0% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/21/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 16102.25
- PR Low: 16082.50
- NZ Spread: 44.25
Key economic events
10:00 – Existing Home Sales
14:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes
19:30 – FOMC Meeting Minutes
Continuation of supply lift since Oct 27
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 225.23
- Volume: 24K
- Open Int: 283K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -4.0% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
Brazil ETF Could Be Breaking OutThe iShares MSCI Brazil ETF has squeezed into a tight range since the coronavirus pandemic, but now it could be nearing a breakout.
Today’s chart uses two-week candles to display the price action since 2016.
First consider the falling trendline since December 2019, along the highs of 2021, 2022 and earlier this year. EWZ jumped above the line last week after cooler-than-expected inflation sank the U.S. dollar. Traders may watch to see whether EWZ can hold these levels or add to the gains.
Second is the gradually rising trendline since 2016. Notice how the ETF made a higher low at the end of September above the support. That may reflect an accelerating uptrend.
Third, prices bounced around $25 in July 2022 and March 2023. That double bottom may confirm the presence of lurking buyers.
Fourth, the recent price compression (highlighted by Bollinger Bandwidth) may give way to price expansion .
Finally, investors could focus on valuations and the macro environment as the New Year approaches. EWZ trades for less than half the P/E ratio of the S&P 500. Investors may also see opportunities in global assets if the Federal Reserve is done hiking rates and the U.S. dollar continues to weaken.
Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above:
iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ):
1-year: -8.88%
5-years: -25.85%
10-years: -40.65%
(As of Oct. 31, 2023)
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NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/20/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15903.75
- PR Low: 15848.00
- NZ Spread: 125.0
No significant economic events
- Heavy FOMC week Tue and Wed
Strong volatile open to start the week
- Wide NZ spread
- Maintaining lows from prev Thu & Fri
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 223.52
- Volume: 26K
- Open Int: 279K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -5.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
Vale contracting monthly volatilityVale is a play I have been thinking about adding as I have sold my BHP holdings for other opportunities. The stock provides a strong dividend, international and metals (mostly iron) exposure. The company is a high cash flow company and does fluctuate with the iron markets for the most part. Iron is a lot different than gold and silver, and is showing an uptrend on the monthly time frame.
Chart wise we see contracting volatility, a retake of the .382 fib level and I am eying a retest of the .5. RSI shows a very similar structure to price action which confirms contraction. The stock sits right at the center of the Bollinger bands. If you look at the blue line on volume which is an SMA, you will notice a growing uptick. Investors are flocking to quality and value these days with many overheated technology and non-profitable stocks reaching obnoxious PE ratios and valuations. A search for a yield that overtakes the short-term treasury but has limited downside is what many larger funds are looking for, I believe Vale is one of those opporunities, much like my large Verizon bet ~ 30$.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/17/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15900.00
- PR Low: 15882.25
- NZ Spread: 39.75
Key economic calendar event
08:30 – Building Permits
Minor change from prev session
- Maintaining inventory at key level ~15832
Evening Stats (As of 1:55 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 230.04
- Volume: 22K
- Open Int: 282K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -5.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/16/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15866.00
- PR Low: 15844.00
- NZ Spread: 49.0
Key Calendar Events:
08:30 – Initial Jobless Claims
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Prev session closed virtually flat
- Daily printed for potential reversal short
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Gap 7/20: -0.11% (filled)
- Session Open ATR: 242.00
- Volume: 30K
- Open Int: 275K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -5.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/15/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15913.00
- PR Low: 15894.25
- NZ Spread: 41.75
Key economic events
08:30 – Retail Sales (Core/MoM)
- PPI
10:30 – Crude Oil Inventories
Another day of expected news driven volatility
- Continues to drive supply towards ATHs
Evening Stats (As of 12:35 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Gap 8/2: -0.33% (closed)
- Gap 7/20: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 243.93
- Volume: 27K
- Open Int: 271K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -5.3% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
QQQ pressing against monthly resistanceQQQ is looking VERY strong after this CPI print, so many people were net bearish and we likely are seeing a squeeze as well. I would not be surprised to see ATHs next quarter, I do believe the economy is in for some pain next year though and would recommend being cautious.
Hood updateI did layer on more calls on the ARK news adding more hood shares. Alphabet did sell their remaining shares which might have caused that large red candle. The HV has plummeted to very low levels along with RSI which makes me believe this is oversold. First sell target is 9.45$, we are approaching the daily gap and I believe this can close very quickly with this bullish CPI print.
Link looking to continue forwardLINK despite the rejection is flashing bullish on all of the long term momentum indicators. RSI is high, HV is climbing, the token has dipped into local demand on the daily and is looking at another test of monthly resistance. LINK was first mover in 2018 and held strong during the covid crash I wouldnt fade that token as one of the most obvious (safer) picks in the market for a hold into BTC price discovery. 22 UPCOM:ISH is next fib level too.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/14/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15561.75
- PR Low: 15551.75
- NZ Spread: 22.5
Key Economic Event
08:30 – CPI (Core/MoM/YoY)
Low participation led to prev session closing virtually flat
- Low PR spread, maintaining low vols
- Expected volatility spike for CPI
- Margin requirement increase
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Gap 8/2: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Gap 7/20: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 234.89
- Volume: 17K
- Open Int: 267K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -7.3% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
WTI Crude Oil :: January 2024 Contract :: CLF2024WTI Crude Oil :: January 2024 Contract :: CLF2024
As of November 13, at a current volatility level of 37, the underlying January 2024 WTI futures price has a 68% chance (1-StdDev) to be inside of the range between 70 and 85 at the CLF24 expiration on December 19, 2023.
CME volume data has shown that traders have been more aggressively trading the 85 Strike Calls and the 70 Strike Puts, perfectly wrapping the 1 Standard Deviation of the December 10 WTI settlement price.
The CFTC COT Report shows that, toward the beginning of October, fund managers have been aggressively subtracting from their long positions.
The CFTC COT Report also shows that, near mid to late October, fund managers have been adding short positions, resulting in a decreasing net positioning.
NYMEX:CLF2024
AVAX cool off before 28$ price targetAVAX along with other alts is looking to cool off for a bit, AVAX did not get the same run as Solana because it actually has price action near the lows, SOL dumped so quickly it pretty much created gaps through multiple weeks. AVAX HV is increasing, the RSI is cooling off, this is good, more volatility, more reward. I expect AVAX to dip into this demand and bounce if BTC behaves. Short-term bearish for a few days at most.
Massive cup and handle on ilvWith the impending 3rd version of the Beta end of month, Iluvium is looking to be fully live early next year. This cup and handle is multi month and massive, RSI picking up steam, HV is reaching a historical level, the road will likely be rocky but I foresee a large upswing in the coming weeks, I am entering into the handle with spot.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/13/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15601.00
- PR Low: 15548.50
- NZ Spread: 117.5
No key calendar events
Opening the week pulling back from Friday high
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Gap 8/2: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Gap 7/20: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 247.80
- Volume: 33K
- Open Int: 272K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -7.3% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.