NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/16/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20352.00
- PR Low: 20306.00
- NZ Spread: 102.75
No key scheduled economic events
Swing back below Monday's low
- Inventory front run Keltner avg cloud
Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 10/16)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 306.42
- Volume: 19K
- Open Int: 240K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -4.0% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Volatility
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/15/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20640.75
- PR Low: 20614.25
- NZ Spread: 59.5
No key scheduled economic events
New month highs, holding in previous session highs
Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 10/15)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 297.77
- Volume: 16K
- Open Int: 254K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -2.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Significant Move Expected for Walgreens Boots AllianceToday, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) is highly volatile with an IVRank of 102.6, indicating elevated implied volatility.
The expected move is ±11.78% in the near term, showing potential for significant price swings.
Skew across expiries suggests a stronger preference for calls, as evidenced by the CALL skew of 36.5%, particularly notable for the 11/15 expiry where the IVx is 102.7%.
Despite a slight IVx decline across some expiries, the volatility remains high, signaling traders are bracing for large earnings-driven moves.
Weekly GEX of SPX | Option Chain Analysis for Option TradersI’d like to share my thoughts below after analyzing the SPX option chain. In this analysis, I focus exclusively on the weekly time range, examining the SPX option chain and the changes in top-tier options metrics.
🔶 Breakout and Bullish Outlook
Last Friday's price action saw the SPX break through the 5800 call gamma wall, generating strong bullish momentum . This breakout opens the door for further upward movement throughout the week, especially if buying pressure persists. Breaking through a call gamma wall often leads to a rapid price increase, as these levels act as resistance, but once broken, they support further upward moves.
However, caution is advised, as additional call gamma levels (around 5850 and 5875) could act as resistance, where the price may stall. These levels can reverse roles and, if the price falters, could act as significant resistance, potentially leading to a pullback toward the 5800 level.
🔴 Put Skew and IVx Changes
The put pricing skew on the Options Oscillator shows a declining trend, meaning that while put options are still more expensive than calls at equivalent strikes, this trend is softening when looking at the November expiration. This indicates a weakening of put options relative to calls, which could be another bullish signal as demand for puts may be declining.
The five-day IVx average declining , indicating a decrease in market volatility = VIX is melting down.
🟨 Backwardation and Diagonal/Calendar Strategy Opportunities
It's also worth noting the 10.5% backwardation based on the IV skew for the expirations between 10/18 and 10/21 (4/7DTE). This backwardation (downward sloping volatility curve) could benefit calendar and diagonal spread strategies, as options with different expirations have varying volatility conditions.
🔶 GEX Wall Levels: Where Is Support and Resistance?
🔹Gamma Exposure (GEX) levels continue to play a crucial role in the market’s movements:
🔹On the upside, the largest call gamma wall for the next 7 days is at 5850, while the 5875 level may also act as significant resistance. The 5875 is a more likely a realistic bullish target, supported by the Options Overlay’s blue OTM delta 16 probability curve.
🔹On the downside, the 5750 put support level currently offers strong support, with sellers forming a barrier here. The 5800 level is also interesting because it was the largest call gamma level last week, meaning there could be significant volatility as bulls and bears battle around this point.
(NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available by the end of October.)
🟨 How Delta 16 Curves Define My Rational Price Range in Options Trading
The blue OTM Delta 16 curves from the Options Overlay define the rational probability range for me based on a lognormal distribution. This is important because there’s a 68% chance the price will stay within this range by expiration. These values are also visible in the Overlay Expiry table.
This represents the 68% probability range defined by OTM 16 delta PUTs and OTM 16 delta CALLs, showing a clear directional expected move value. It provides an insightful view of the expected price movement’s directional range, often used by delta-neutral strangle traders like those at TastyTrade.
⅀ SPX Summary
The SPX options chain is showing a bullish direction with the breakout above 5800, but it will be key to watch the gamma levels where the market might stall this week. The rising IV and declining put skew trend could provide further signals that the bull market might continue, but the possibility of resistance or a pullback remains. For those considering diagonal strategies, the backwardation may offer interesting opportunities to capitalize on.
(NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available soon, by the end of October!)
Regression Channel for Predictive Price Analysis - LAURUSLABSUnderstanding the Regression Channel
A regression channel is a powerful tool in technical analysis, helping traders identify and predict price trends. It consists of a central regression line flanked by parallel lines, forming a channel that contains the majority of price movements.
Step-by-Step Guide to Drawing a Regression Channel
Identify the Trend: Start by identifying the trend you want to analyze. In this chart of Laurus Labs Ltd., we observe the trend from August 2023 to October 2024.
Draw the Regression Line: The central regression line represents the best-fit line through the price data, minimizing the distance between the line and data points. Use charting tools like TradingView to draw this line automatically.
Add Parallel Lines: Draw parallel lines above and below the regression line to form the channel. These lines should encompass most of the price data. The distance between the regression line and the parallel lines is typically determined by the standard deviation of the price data.
Using the Regression Channel for Predictive Analysis
Trend Identification: The upper boundary of the channel acts as a resistance level, while the lower boundary acts as a support level. Price movements within these boundaries are considered normal.
Reversal Signals: If the price breaks through the upper or lower boundary, it may signal a trend reversal. A breakout above the upper boundary suggests a bullish trend, while a break below the lower boundary indicates a bearish trend.
Entry and Exit Points: Traders can use the boundaries of the channel to determine entry and exit points. Buying near the lower boundary and selling near the upper boundary can be a profitable strategy.
Volume Analysis: Volume bars at the bottom of the chart show trading activity. Green bars indicate buying pressure, while red bars suggest selling pressure. Pay attention to volume spikes during price movements.
Conclusion
Drawing and analyzing a regression channel provides valuable insights into price movements. For Laurus Labs Ltd., the channel helps identify key levels where the price may stall or reverse, guiding your trading decisions. By understanding how to draw and interpret this channel, you can enhance your predictive analysis and improve your chances of success in the market.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/14/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20443.75
- PR Low: 20407.50
- NZ Spread: 81.25
No key scheduled economic events
- Technically a US holiday
Maintaining Thu-Fri range
Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 10/14)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 300.40
- Volume: 19K
- Open Int: 251K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -3.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
CHF/JPY October Forecast: Bearish Divergence and Key Sell Setup
CHF/JPY October Market Structure and Trading Analysis
In the CHF/JPY pair, the October monthly structure reveals an open high-low-close pattern, which points towards a potential sell setup. As of now, we are awaiting confirmation through a TDI (Traders Dynamic Index) cross to validate entry points for sell trades.
Key Technical Highlights:
1. Bearish Divergence: A clear bearish divergence has been forming since July 19, 2024 , extending to the current market price. This divergence signals a potential shift in market sentiment, suggesting a downward move may be imminent.
2. Open High Structure on Daily Chart: The daily timeframe for October continues to display an open-high structure, reinforcing the bearish outlook for the month.
3. Overbought Market Conditions: The price is showing signs of being significantly overbought following a strong bullish breakout from October 1, 2024. This overbought condition makes the pair vulnerable to a correction, further strengthening the sell setup.
4. TDI Cross for Confirmation: A bearish cross in the TDI indicator will provide confirmation of the presence of sellers in the market. This signal is crucial before initiating sell positions.
Take Profit Levels:
- Take Profit 1: 172.000
- Take Profit 2: 170.750
- Take Profit 3: 170.000
Trading Recommendations:
Patience is key—wait for clear, valid signals such as the TDI cross to confirm entry points. As always, exercise caution and apply proper risk management when trading to protect your capital.
If you find this analysis insightful, please like, leave a comment, and follow for more updates. I will happily follow back. Good luck with your trades!
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NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/11/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20440.00
- PR Low: 20426.00
- NZ Spread: 31.5
Key scheduled economic event
08:30 | PPI
Previous session closed relatively unchanged
- Holding week highs, daily inside print
Session Open Stats (As of 2:05 AM 10/11)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 309.33
- Volume: 17K
- Open Int: 251K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -2.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NTL New Talisman Gold Mines LtdBuying long term position in high risk gold miner today
Exploration company but just purchased plant to start producing gold...
Technically this has bollinger band squeeze at $0.023 cents per share - it definitely is a penny stock! don't think I've ever bought something so low in 20 years...!!
Could have massive reward to risk if it turns profitable i.e. reward to risk >50X
I'm happy to lose the entire investment in this as the potential reward to risk is massive (and very rare...) especially in businesses that are involved in producing something of value that is tangible...
High risk for sure, but I believe they have done 11 years of research and starting to buy equipment to produce so they see value there...
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/10/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20452.75
- PR Low: 20435.75
- NZ Spread: 38.0
Key scheduled economic events
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
- Core CPI (MoM/YoY)
13:00 | 30-Year Bond Auction
--Temp AMP margin increase
Pushing auction to Sep 26 pivot high
- Inside previous session highs
Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 10/10)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 316.95
- Volume: 14K
- Open Int: 253K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -2.5% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
BTC Longterm playWhile there is optimism for BTC this year, it seems the asset can only realistically reach 67,800 due to a lack of buying that would be willing to expose themselves to that level of risk. On the technical side BTC also seems prime for a retracement down to the $37k region which goes against a majority of majority of prediction including the 100k end of year assessment made by some economist. Considerations were also made for the war in the Middle East, Ukraine and Africa.
Potential Breakout in Palo Alto NetworksPalo Alto Networks has been rangebound most of the year, but now the cybersecurity firm could be breaking out.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs since August 20. PANW pushed against that trendline last week and broke it on Tuesday.
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is above the 100-day SMA. Both are above the 200-day SMA. That kind of sequence, with faster averages above slower averages, may reflect a longer-term uptrend.
Next, higher quarterly lows are also potentially consistent with a longer-term uptrend.
Finally, Bollinger Band Width shows narrowing volatility. Will that tight range of motion give way to faster movement?
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NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/9/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20294.25
- PR Low: 20271.00
- NZ Spread: 51.75
FOMC Afternoon:
10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories
13:00 | 10-Year Note Auction
14:00 | FOMC Meeting Minutes
Slight lift of weekly high
- Auctioning inside previous session highs
Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 10/9)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 323.21
- Volume: 19K
- Open Int: 249K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -3.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
TRON Crypto + 3 Step Rocket Booster StrategyThe market is in a very steep decline.
Everything is on sale..and if you are into dip-buying
this is your moment
-
This is my first time experiencing
a dip buy in the market it kinda sucks
because the volatility is insane.
This is the time to focus on risk management
but if you are looking for a high
edge in the cryptocurrency side of things
then BINANCE:TRXUSDT
is the play I think that will
go on the high end of prices.
Which means:
#1-The price is above the 50 ema
#2-The price is above the 200 ema
#3-The price will go up in a trend.
Because this is a bear market
my last trade ideas have been dip-buy patterns
so if you got caught up in the volatility
without risk management am sorry
that's the nature of trading.
The 3 steps above are the rocket booster strategy.
Rocket boost this content to learn more.
Disclaimer: Trading is risky please learn risk
management and profit
taking strategies.
Because you will lose money wether you like it or not.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/8/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20031.00
- PR Low: 19902.50
- NZ Spread: 287.5
No key scheduled economic events
Auction contained within Friday's range
- Super wide opening range on quick inventory dip below previous session low
Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 10/8)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 321.04
- Volume: 36K
- Open Int: 239K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -4.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/7/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20267.25
- PR Low: 20208.00
- NZ Spread: 132.25
No key scheduled economic events
Inside Friday's highs
- Daily pivot off KA cloud, 19800 zone
Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 10/7)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 317.77
- Volume: 27K
- Open Int: 245K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -3.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
USD/CHF Bullish Breakout with Potential Retest and Rally to 0.8Analysis:
Recent Trend: The price has shown a clear rally after a period of consolidation between 0.8440 and 0.8510. After testing the lower bound near 0.8440, there was a significant breakout above 0.8510, leading to a sharp upward movement, peaking around 0.8574.
Support & Resistance:
Support: 0.8470 - The previous consolidation area and where the price bounced several times before breaking out.
Resistance: 0.8570 - 0.8580 - The area where the price is currently facing some resistance after the breakout.
Momentum: The sharp rise indicates strong buying momentum, with buyers pushing the price higher. However, as it approaches the resistance zone, traders might take profits, leading to short-term pullbacks.
Volume: There seems to be an increase in volume as the breakout happened, which validates the strength of the move. Higher volume during breakouts typically signals confidence in the trend.
Prediction:
The breakout from the 0.8510 consolidation zone signals a bullish trend. The pair is likely to continue upward momentum, with the next significant resistance zone around 0.8580-0.8600. However, a pullback to retest the support zone at 0.8510 could occur before further upward movement.
Trade Idea:
Entry: Consider entering a buy position if the price consolidates above 0.8510 after a pullback, with confirmation from bullish candlesticks or technical indicators (like RSI or MACD).
Profit Target: Aim for a target of 0.8600, which is the next resistance zone.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below 0.8470 to account for false breakouts and downside risk.
Let me know if you need any more detailed suggestions or would like adjustments to this strategy.