Volatility
NSIT longNASDAQ:NSIT bullish
Insight Enterprises is a Fortune 500 global provider of IT solutions that helps businesses and organizations digitally transform their operations. The company specializes in delivering technology solutions to optimize IT environments, improve business outcomes, and enhance productivity.
Key Details
Founded: 1988
Headquarters: Chandler, Arizona, USA
Ticker: NSIT (NASDAQ)
Industry: IT services, consulting, and hardware/software solutions
Revenue (2023): Over $10 billion
Employees: Approximately 12,000
Operations: Active in more than 19 countries across North America, Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region.
Business Segments
Hardware and Software Procurement:
Offers a wide range of IT hardware (e.g., laptops, servers, networking equipment) and software from leading brands like Microsoft, Cisco, Dell, and HP.
Cloud and Data Center Solutions:
Helps businesses adopt cloud technologies, manage data centers, and streamline operations using modern infrastructure.
Digital Innovation:
Focuses on emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), and advanced analytics to drive business transformation.
Managed IT Services:
Provides IT support and management services, including cybersecurity, disaster recovery, and help desk services.
Consulting and Strategy:
Advises businesses on IT strategy, enterprise architecture, and technology implementation to align with organizational goals.
Volatility metrics are pointing to short vol trade -> long SVXYThis volatility barometer takes signals for 12 different metrics. We are back to a short volatility trade (until we aren't). But I just watch this signals and stay nimble. Contango or backwardation is helpful but not the entire story.
This is a helpful site:
vixcentral.com
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/25/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20954.25
- PR Low: 20928.50
- NZ Spread: 57.50
No key scheduled economic events
US Thanksgiving week
Unfilled weekend gap up >50 points
- QQQ filling gap below ~508
- Above previous week's high, inside Nov 15 highs, teasing breakout
- Auction has been held inside Nov 15 range since its close
Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 11/25)
- Weekend Gap: +0.24 (open > 20877)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 299.77
- Volume: 23K
- Open Int: 273K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -1.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 21525
- Mid: 20954
- Short: 19815
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Raw VS Percentage Volatility FormatA Quantitative Comparison of "Buying & Selling Pressure" and "Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change"
In market analysis, the choice of averaging method can profoundly influence the insights derived. The "Buying & Selling Pressure " and "Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change" indicators demonstrate the unique strengths of fixed-period and candle-count-based averaging approaches.
Key Differences Between Fixed-Period and Candle-Count Averaging
Fixed-Period Averaging in BSP:
➡︎ In "Buying & Selling Pressure", candle metrics are averaged over a defined period (e.g., 14 bars).
➡︎ This provides rapid insights into market sentiment changes, making it ideal for tracking incentive shifts and volatility in real time.
➡︎ However, because this method includes all candles in the averaging window, it may reflect short-term fluctuations, offering less stability compared to candle-count-based methods.
Candle-Count Averaging in ABBPC:
➡︎ "Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change"uses a predefined count of bullish or bearish candles for averaging percentage changes.
➡︎ This produces stable and reliable values, which are less sensitive to noise and better suited for risk and reward assessment.
➡︎ The focus on specific candle states ensures that only relevant market behaviors contribute to the averages.
Using Percentage Change for Risk Definition
One of the greatest strengths of the "Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change" indicator is its ability to assist in risk and reward calculations with much more market related figures instead of raw values of volatility:
Defining Risk
The average percentage change of bearish candles can serve as a dynamic stop-loss level.
For example, if the average bearish percentage change over the last 10 candles is 2%, a trader can set a stop-loss at 2% below their entry to account for typical market behavior.
Quantifying Reward:
The average bullish percentage change helps identify realistic profit targets.
If the average bullish percentage change over the last 10 candles is 3%, a trader can set a target at 3% above their entry to maintain a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
Dynamic Adjustments:
As the market evolves, these average percentage changes update, allowing traders to adjust their risk and reward levels in real time for better precision.
Quantitative Advantages of Percentage Change Averaging
Normalization Across Price Levels:
Percentage changes enable consistent comparison across assets with vastly different price ranges.
Enhanced Stability for Risk Assessment:
Candle-count averaging smooths out noise, offering a reliable basis for setting risk parameters like stop-losses and profit targets.
Improved Predictability:
By isolating specific candle behaviors, percentage-based metrics provide clearer signals for trend-following or mean-reversion strategies.
Advantages of BSP’s Fixed-Period Averaging
Despite being less stable, "Buying & Selling Pressure " excels in areas requiring speed and adaptability:
Fast Incentive Tracking:
Period-based averaging adapts quickly to changing market conditions, providing timely insights into shifts in buying or selling pressure.
Broad Volatility Capture:
BSP includes all candles in the defined period, capturing overall market dynamics, including sudden spikes or reversals.
Real-Time Decision Making:
Its responsiveness makes it highly suitable for momentum or breakout trading strategies.
Bottomline:
Use "Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change" for stable, consistent data ideal for risk assessment, particularly when defining dynamic stop-loss levels or profit targets based on average percentage changes.
Use "Buying & Selling Pressure " for its speed and adaptability in tracking real-time shifts in market incentives and capturing volatility.
Sui cool off then 5$SUI has been on a tear lately and I have started to add to the position simply due to its general momentum and strength related to BTC. I would love to see a cool off here as the BBWP has fired red multiple times and the weekly stochastic has been very high for a while. A week or two consolidation above 3.2 would be very bullish before a rip to 5$. This would allow the 5 EMA to catch up to current price and reset volatility/momentum indicators. I firmly expect to see 11-12$ next year.
FTM to 1.4$FTM I expect to run to 1.2-1.5$ in December, this token has been consolidating and waiting for a while, a real dark horse. When FTM becomes S, we really need a coinbase listing for a long-term success of this token, the fact it is not listed is actually obnoxious to me. I have been in the FTM ecosystem for a very long time and wait for the day we finally see the listing. We could really see this one run next year 5-15$ tbh, I do not have any sell targets for myself here since I want to see how this plays out.
NEAR to runNEAR is a top position of mine as well and has just started its pivot as BTC finally stalls around 100k. I expect a nice run to 9$ in December, with my first real sell target around 12.6$. I plan on holding this one through the journey next year as I believe it could become a major winner longer term. Note the low BBWP volatility with rising stochastic RSI on low volume.
INJ to runINJ has been one of my largest positions and I am eager to sell the rest of this older token. My first area of interest is marked PT1 around 50$. Where I would like to sell is at the golden ratio of 77$. Note the BBWP is very low with a rising stochastic, buying pressure is building but average volatility has barely picked up.
AKT a top 3 postionAKT is one of my top 3 positions, I took meme profits from MYRO a long time ago into this and started adding large amounts from some airdrops I had received. I expect AKT to test around 7$ by Christmas. Note how low this BBWP is despite a rising stochastic RSI. I am partial to tokens on Cosmos to begin with. Add this nice staking reward I have been receiving for months and you have my attention.
11/18 Volatility Zones: Gamma Squeeze, Chop, and Support LevelsWeekly GEX Levels for SPX:
The SPX analysis from last week’s free newsletter seems to have played out well. If you recall, based on the weekly GEX levels, there were no significant gamma levels below 5950. As soon as the price dropped below that, we saw the anticipated red gap-down to 5850 by Friday.
With Friday's move, SPX shifted from a positive NETGEX range to a negative one:
Let’s not forget: a negative gamma range means that market makers move in the same direction as retail traders, increasing the likelihood of stronger price movements, regardless of the market’s direction. Until the 5900 HVL level is reclaimed, I don’t expect this to change. As we saw today, there was a nice bounce off this level with a rejection, making it a tough resistance to break.
If it does manage to break through, there’s currently a call gamma wall at 5925. Clearing this level could open the door to higher ranges again.
While the week is still long, if the market fails to regain stability by Friday, breaking below the major 5850 PUT gamma wall could lead to another rapid move down, similar to last Friday, targeting the 5810–5800 range.
Gamma Squeeze Zones for SP:SPX & AMEX:SPY this week:
Above 5925:
Gamma squeeze zone, where upward momentum can accelerate.
Chop Zone:
Between 5900 and 5930: Sideways movement expected, with the market consolidating in this range.
High Volatility Zone:
Below 5900: High volatility zone, indicating increased intensity in market movements.
Market Makers Hedging Behavior Shift Zone:
Around 5900: A critical zone where market makers may adjust their hedging strategies.
Call Resistance:
Below 5940: Reduced volatility expected as call resistance limits upward movement.
Put Support Levels:
Around 5850: Highest negative NETGEX/PUT support level.
Between 5810 and 5800: Additional put support levels acting as key supports; if 5850 broken, turbulence is expected.
IV and Skew Data:
IVR: 16.9 increasing
IV Average: 14.9 increasing
PUT pricing skew: 31.5%
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/22/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20808.00
- PR Low: 20758.50
- NZ Spread: 110.50
Key scheduled economic events
09:45 | S&P Global US Marketing PMI
- S&P Global Services PMI
Retaining value inside Friday 11/15 range, below 20880
- Holding auction in week highs
Session Open Stats (As of 1:45 AM 11/22)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 308.57
- Volume: 38K
- Open Int: 273K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -2.5% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 21525
- Mid: 20954
- Short: 19815
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Nasdaq Listed Red Cat Holdings Inc.NASDAQ:RCAT Red Cat Holdings Inc Nasdaq Listed.
Lots of buyers have stepped in pushing the stock up I have the gaps marked looking for any possible pullback entries aligning with next month Dec options. Could keep pumping I am good for entry at 4 if it pulls back. Green arrow is upside potential Red is option expiration pullback. This stock is volatile and has been very low. This is a High Risk Stock! Don't get burned Make sure you look at a long term chart before getting in to this. Similar to NYSE:IONQ Not a Full Port Idea, but everyone needs a little lotto in their life. Have Stop Loss in Place! Gaps are marked so is volume profile. Make your own investment decisions. Not Financial Advice.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/21/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20762.25
- PR Low: 20687.50
- NZ Spread: 167.50
Key scheduled economic events
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 | Existing Home Sales
Rotation back inside Tuesday range following failed breakout above 20840
- Return to daily Keltner average cloud
Session Open Stats (As of 1:05 AM 11/21)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 307.87
- Volume: 42K
- Open Int: 277K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -2.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 21525
- Mid: 20954
- Short: 19815
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/20/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20787.75
- PR Low: 20750.25
- NZ Spread: 84.0
Key scheduled economic calendar event
10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories
Rotation back into 20800 supply
- Break above daily Keltner average cloud
Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 11/20)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 300.47
- Volume: 32K
- Open Int: 270K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -2.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 21525
- Mid: 20954
- Short: 19815
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/19/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20640.25
- PR Low: 20603.50
- NZ Spread: 82.25
No key scheduled economic events
Retraced ~50% of Friday's selloff
- Auctioned contained inside of daily Keltner average cloud
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 11/19)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 294.52
- Volume: 26K
- Open Int: 268K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -3.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 21525
- Mid: 20954
- Short: 19815
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
GBP/JPY 1H - Bearish Setup Awaiting Liquidity ClearanceIn this GBP/JPY 1-hour chart, we are preparing for a potential bearish trade setup based on liquidity principles from ICT (Inner Circle Trader) concepts. Here's a breakdown of the key elements:
Market Structure and Bias
The chart shows a clear bearish bias, as noted by the significant down move, but no short positions should be taken until the Buy-Side Liquidity (BS) above is cleared. This liquidity is within the premium zone of the recent range, and smart money may push prices higher to fill orders and grab liquidity before resuming the bearish trend.
Liquidity Targets
The Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) is highlighted above the current price, showing that there are likely stop-loss orders and pending orders above this level. Price is expected to gravitate towards this liquidity before any significant downward movement.
Additionally, during the Asian session, we see a liquidity grab, which could indicate that the market makers have engineered a move to take out weaker hands before continuing higher into the premium zone.
Optimal Trade Entry (OTE)
The Fibonacci retracement tool has been applied to the recent swing high to swing low. The 61.8% - 70.5% retracement levels coincide with a Bearish Order Block, offering a potential area for the market to reverse lower. This area of confluence adds to the potential for a high-probability short setup once the BSL is cleared.
Change of Character (CHOCH)
A Change of Character (CHOCH) is present, showing that the market has already given an early indication of a potential reversal to the upside. This CHOCH supports the idea that the price may need to grab buy-side liquidity above before continuing the bearish trend.
Bearish Continuation Setup
Once the buy-side liquidity is taken and price enters into the premium zone (61.8% - 70.5% Fibonacci retracement), we expect a bearish continuation. This aligns with the overall market structure and liquidity principles.
Execution Plan
Entry: Wait for price to clear the buy-side liquidity and enter the premium zone (61.8% - 70.5% Fibonacci retracement) before considering short positions.
Stop Loss: Place stops above the 78.6% Fibonacci level, protecting against a deeper liquidity grab.
Take Profit: Target the sell-side liquidity below, with the potential for extended targets lower if the bearish trend continues.
GEX levels of SPX for Weekly Option TradersAlthough the SPX is currently trading within a relatively neutral positive gamma range, it’s worth taking a closer look at what the week might hold.
This week, SPX is moving between critical resistance and support levels, which are showing significant options activity. The 5900 level is the key CALL resistance, acting as the gamma wall for the next 7 days (7DTE) . This suggests that as long as the price remains below this level, it will face strong resistance in moving higher. If the market breaks through this level, it could signal a bullish breakout, leading to increased turbulence.
🟨 DETAILED VIEW:
In case of a breakout, keep an eye on the second weaker CALL wall at 5925 and the third weaker CALL wall at 5940, which are the next potential resistance levels once the market moves past the 5900 gamma wall. These levels could play a pivotal role in the price’s upward movement and indicate further buying pressure.
🔶 HVL Level and Gamma Environment: 5830
The 5830 level represents the High Volatility Level (HVL), which determines whether we are in a positive or negative gamma environment. If SPX closes below this level, we enter the negative gamma zone, which could lead to increased market volatility. This could result in sharper price movements during the week if this level does not hold. In that case, the PUT supports come into focus.
The 5750 level marks the strongest PUT support, providing substantial downward support for the market. However, before reaching this level, it’s important to consider the emerging PUT wall at 5765, which may stop the price from falling lower. This could act as an intermediate support, slowing or even halting a decline before the 5750 level comes into play.
🔶 Implied Volatility and Time-Based Strategic Opportunities NOW
The decrease in implied volatility, as shown by the IV and IVx indicators, signals a calmer market environment. Based on IV rank and average IV levels, volatility is running lower, which presents good opportunities for various spread strategies, especially time spreads that can be optimized between the 11/01 and 11/04 time frame.
Key levels above could fuel further market movement throughout the week if a breakout occurs. CALL/PUT gamma levels on the options chain strongly outline the potential resistance and support levels, but these levels can change dynamically, especially if SPX breaks through the 5900 level.
🔶 SPX Key Levels This Week:
5900 CALL resistance – Main gamma wall, strong resistance.
5925 and 5940 – Second and third weaker CALL walls, offering additional resistance if broken.
5830 HVL – Key level determining the gamma environment.
5765 PUT wall – Emerging intermediate PUT support, which could slow a decline.
5750 PUT support – Strongest PUT gamma wall and support.
Keep these levels in mind throughout the week, as they will likely influence market movements and the volatility environment. By applying the right options strategies, this information can help you structure profitable positions.
10/28 GEX of SPX for this weekThis week is especially exciting because, on Thursday, we’ll be releasing our automatic GEX level indicator! (Halloween night, yes, very spooky...) Here's a little preview of what’s coming—just a few more days to go, and we can hardly wait!
Based on the key aggregated GEX levels valid as of today's market open, we can see that SPX started the week in a positive territory following last week's minor correction. Currently, the gamma profile suggests positive outlooks through Friday as the market opened above the HVL level, which is now at 5820.
The primary levels to watch are:
Call Wall (5900): This level, with the highest positive Net GEX value, may serve as a strong resistance point this week. As the price approaches this level, upward momentum may slow as market liquidity tends to stabilize movements here.
Put Support (5800): This is the key support level where negative gamma presence helps cushion price declines. Should the price dip below this level, moves might accelerate, so it’s worth monitoring movements around 5800.
With the gamma profile above the current HVL level (5820), GEX is positive , which can help stabilize the market and support further gains. Observing options market dynamics, this level suggests the direction of momentum, where market participants may anticipate further upside. As we saw last week, this level could mark a point of heightened volatility for SPX!
Additional important levels, like the 2nd Call Wall and 2nd Put Wall, can also be seen on the chart, providing potential barriers and support points for price movements throughout the week. Gamma levels are updated multiple times daily and may shift with market moves.
BTC 18.11.24#BTC - I’m expecting a pullback to test the EMA 20. BTC has had an incredible push, with a nearly 40% pump in under a month, so a pullback would be healthy after such a move. For now, I’m staying patient and waiting to see how the price reacts to the EMA 20.
Lower volume and a bearish MACD cross are also forming. I don’t think this will matter much for the overall trend, but it does suggest a higher chance of retesting the EMA 20
#BTC Price Action - Catch the last pullback As a follow up to my last #BTC analysis, price is printing the exact pattern I expected
Will it continue to sell-off right down to the extreme demand?
I believe so. And if that happens, make sure to prepare the longs because the next leg up will be very explosive to 95-100k