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Volatility

NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 3/10/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 20147.00 - PR Low: 19995.50 - NZ Spread: 339.0 No key scheduled economic events Advertising rotation long potential above Friday's high - Auction likely to return to 200, filling weekend gap down - Holding auction inside Friday's range - Mechanically pivoting off 19900s inventory Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 3/10) - Session Open ATR: 462.08 - Volume: 50K - Open Int: 279K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -10.4% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025
by mv3trader5
Backwardated Volatility Curve: A Thesis on Fear and OpportunityWhen the ephemeral grip of fear tightens, it often manifests as a divergence in the volatility landscape. Specifically, when the immediate dread, captured by spot VIX, surges beyond the horizon of longer-term anxieties, represented by VIX 3M, a unique market condition arises: the inverted, or backwardated, volatility term structure. Beyond a mere statistical anomaly, this phenomenon paints a vivid portrait of market psychology. The thesis posits that such an inversion reflects a market bracing for immediate shocks, a perception of heightened risk that overshadows longer-term outlooks. In essence, fear is front-loaded. The implications are profound. This surge in short-term implied volatility, driven by a desperate scramble for immediate protection via options, can trigger dramatic price swings. In its heightened state, the market often succumbs to panic, driving asset prices lower. Yet, the contrarian thesis finds its footing in this very panic, this acute manifestation of fear. The core argument rests on the dichotomy between panic and fundamentals. While short-term volatility spikes may reflect a visceral reaction to immediate threats, the longer-term view, as expressed by VIX 3M, suggests a belief in the eventual dissipation or moderation of these uncertainties. Thus, the inversion becomes a signal, a potential harbinger of near-term capitulation. Historically, when spot VIX eclipses VIX 3M to levels associated with market troughs, astute observers recognize an opportunity. The logic is compelling: once the immediate storm passes, spot VIX should revert, realigning with or falling below VIX 3M. This normalization and the potential for a stock market rebound form the basis of the contrarian play. The underlying principle is that volatility, by its nature, exhibits mean reversion. Extreme deviations, such as a significantly elevated spot VIX relative to longer-term measures, are often unsustainable. The expectation is that volatility will normalize, paving the way for market stabilization or a resurgence. However, a critical caveat remains. The backwardated curve is not a panacea. It can reflect genuine, persistent risks. Major unforeseen events can sustain or even amplify the inversion. Therefore, a contrarian stance is inherently risky. Yet, for those who believe in the market's tendency to overreact, the inverted volatility curve transcends a mere threat. It becomes an opportunity, a moment where the market's fear, though palpable, may be fleeting, paving the way for potential gains. This thesis invites a nuanced perspective, urging traders to discern between transient panic and enduring risk and to recognize the potential for opportunity within perceived chaos.
CBOE:VIXLong
by JonLamb
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 3/7/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 20225.75 - PR Low: 20168.00 - NZ Spread: 129.25 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Average Hourly Earnings - Nonfarm Payrolls - Unemployment Rate 11:00 | Fed Monetary Policy Report 12:30 | Fed Chair Powell Speaks AMP temporary margins increase for tomorrows economic events - Immediate response front running 20000 supply - Holding above previous session close Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 3/7) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 445.63 - Volume: 29K - Open Int: 279K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -10.2% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 3/6/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 20643.50 - PR Low: 20589.00 - NZ Spread: 122.0 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims Maintaining previous 2 session range, daily inside print - Still advertising rotation off 20200 inventory - Auction hovering at previous session close Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 3/6) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 431.72 - Volume: 20K - Open Int: 280K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -8.0% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 3/5/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 20595.25 - PR Low: 20531.75 - NZ Spread: 142.0 Key scheduled economic events: 08:15 | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 09:45 | S&P Global Services PMI 10:00 | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories Heavy swings previous session but closed practically unchanged - Clearing key long-term zones between 20900 to 20672 - Advertising rotation to 20800 off 20000 to 20200 inventory Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 3/5) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 434.50 - Volume: 44K - Open Int: 287K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -8.5% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025Short
by mv3trader5
Bank Nifty Key Levels for the First 10 Days of March### **Bank Nifty Key Levels and Market Outlook for the First 10 Days of March** **Current Position:** Bank Nifty is currently trading near a significant support level at **48,300**. If this level is breached, the index may move toward the **47,750–47,500 range**. **Potential Upside:** If Bank Nifty holds above **48,300**, it could test the **48,750–48,900 zone**. A sustained breakout above this range might push it further towards **49,125 and 49,500**. ### **Market Observations (For Learning Purposes Only):** - **In a bearish scenario**, if Bank Nifty moves below **48,300**, it may decline toward **47,750**, with a logical risk management approach considering a stop-loss slightly above the breakdown level. - **In a bullish scenario**, if the index remains above **48,300**, it could aim for **48,750–48,900**, where market participants often consider trailing stop-loss strategies to manage risk. This analysis is intended purely for educational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice.
NSE:BANKNIFTY1!
by tusharbedekar
1
S&P500 $SPY | SPY’s All-Time High - Where to Next? | Feb23'25S&P500 AMEX:SPY | SPY’s All-Time High - Where to Next? | Feb23'25 AMEX:SPY BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $597.50 - $613.23 AMEX:SPY DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $584.88 - $597.50 AMEX:SPY SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $574.00 - $584.88 AMEX:SPY Trends: AMEX:SPY Weekly Trend: Bullish AMEX:SPY Daily Trend: Bullish AMEX:SPY 4H Trend: Bullish AMEX:SPY 1H Trend: Bearish AMEX:SPY just reached a new all-time high! How did price get there? AMEX:SPY experienced a small range between 602.45 – 604.00, followed by bearish momentum, leading to a 3% drop in price. However, bullish momentum quickly stepped in, pushing the price up before continuing downward again. This bearish trend was short-lived and appears to have formed a developing range rather than a sustained downtrend. Shortly after, price broke back above 597.50, signaling the start of a new bullish trend. SPY then established a ranging pattern between 597.50 - 608.00 before ultimately breaking out to a new all-time high of 613.23. Despite the breakout, price action has now dropped back into the range between 597.50 - 608.00. Where to next? Will SPY hold its new highs, or is this the start of a reversal? This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas. ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! trendanalysis, trendtrading, priceaction, priceactiontrading, technicalindicators, supportandresistance, rangebreakout, rangebreakdown, rangetrading, chartpatterntrading, chartpatterns, spy, sp500, s&p, fed, federalreserve, fedrate, AMEX:SPY , snp, snp500, usmarket, usmarkets, stockmarket, overallmarket, spyath, spyalltimehigh, all-time high, price action, bullish trend, bearish momentum, trading range, breakout, support and resistance, choppy market, untradable zone, stock market, technical analysis, market trends, price breakout, volatility, trend reversal, stock trading, SPY analysis, market momentum, trading strategy, sparros, sparrosexchange,
AMEX:SPYLong
by TonyAiello
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 3/4/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 20557.75 - PR Low: 20490.00 - NZ Spread: 151.25 No key scheduled economic events Friday range supply sweep, placing auction at the lows of previous 2 sessions - Rotating off 20400 inventory - Advertising continued selling into new week lows Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 3/4) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 418.05 - Volume: 52K - Open Int: 287K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -8.5% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025
by mv3trader5
Solana: Intra-week Setup Locked In I’m targeting an intra-week play on Solana, but staying cautious. That’s why I’m using a tighter stop-loss and placing my entry slightly lower. Still, this is a strong level for me because multiple key factors are lining up. We have the midpoint of the 30-minute Fair Value Gap, an untouched VWAP (which I’ve hidden to avoid clutter), the VAL from VWAP (Volume Area Low), and a huge liquidity zone above the Previous Weekly High, including an order block – acting as a potential magnet. On the 30-minute time frame, the RSI is trending further into oversold territory, adding more confluence to the setup. Lower time frames are still looking bullish, as long as we hold this level. If not, things could get messy. But until then, everything looks solid.
Long
by stromm
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 3/3/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 21036.25 - PR Low: 20949.00 - NZ Spread: 195.25 Key scheduled economic events: 09:45 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 10:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI - ISM Manufacturing Prices Weekend gap up quickly filled - Holding above Friday's high - Advertising rotation back into previous 3 month range - 21200 key level remains zone of interest - Busy economic week ahead Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 3/3) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 397.27 - Volume: 53K - Open Int: 291K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -6.4% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQH2025Short
by mv3trader5
Largest Dark Pool Sweep Order Since 2023...On a ranked scale since inception, there was a relatively small DP sweep order ranked #58 Price purchased at $63.90. The reason why its so substantial is that it was the largest trade made since 2023 when the stock found major support at levels we are still consolidating in to this day. The even bigger reason on why this means we are most likely bottoming for the last time is that the #58 trade was a DP SWEEP. Meaning they bought the stock at market value to fill it as fast as possible. They did not set a limit order and wait patiently.
NYSE:XYZLong
by LeapTrades
5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/28/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 20680.50 - PR Low: 20639.75 - NZ Spread: 91.25 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Core PCE Price Index (MoM|YoY) 09:45 | Chicago PMI Strong selling pushed value below 3 month range - Advertising continued value decline - Key level 20800 - Holding auction above previous session close - Last trading day of the month (month end) Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 2/28) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 390.33 - Volume: 61K - Open Int: 287K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -8.0% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025Short
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/27/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 21261.75 - PR Low: 21160.00 - NZ Spread: 228.0 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims - Durable Goods Orders - GDP Previous session closed as daily inside print - Value holding above previous session close, below the wide wick low - Advertising potential rotation above 21400 Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 2/27) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 361.47 - Volume: 42K - Open Int: 285K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -5.6% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025
by mv3trader5
02/26 Special GEX Outlook: NVDA Earnings, GEX LevelsNVDA Earnings Announcement 🔥 NVIDIA reports earnings today, after market close, and this release could create significant movement. Let’s dive right into the charts and see what the technicals are telling us! With earnings so close, I typically look only at the nearest expiration, which in this case is 02/28 (Friday). The implied move (IV) is around 10%, or approximately 12 points in either direction. That’s what the market has priced in for this binary event. Key Observations The price is hovering around the Transition Zone and very close to the HVL (High Volume Level) around 130–132. This suggests the market maker is trying to remain delta-neutral leading into earnings. Once the report hits, expect potential volatility on Wall Street! 🚀 GEX Levels for Friday 🔴 Bearish Scenario The bottom of the Transition Zone is at 126. If price drops below 126, the next major put support is at 120 and extends to 115 (a negative gamma squeeze zone). In other words, a breach of 126 could lead to a quick slide down to 120. 🟢Bullish Scenario Major call resistance stands at 150, with a secondary call wall at 145. Above 133 (top of the Transition Zone), calls dominate, meaning the path to 145–150 could open up if we break above the HVL. Longer-Term Perspective 📊 We’re still in an overall uptrend, but history shows that even with positive surprises on 2 out of the last 4 earnings calls, the market had already priced in those expectations—often leading to a sell-the-news reaction. I do not recommend trading right before the earnings with a binary mindset. It’s like walking into a casino and putting all your chips on red or black—it’s pure gamble! 🎰 Call pricing skew has been on a downward trend since DeepSeek (likely referencing a volatility event), indicating that call butterflies might not be as attractive on NVDA now as they were in the past few weeks. Fundamental Analysis 💡 NVIDIA is a hype stock, much like TSLA was a few years back. Its current price has factored in a lot of the future potential. Based on FastGraphs and other valuation tools, NVDA 1.44%↑ seems overpriced relative to its underlying performance. A correction might bring it closer to fair value (the “green zone”), like it did in October 2022. Until then, I’m not considering it for a 5+ year long-term investment—no matter what the short-term price action is. Conclusion & Post-Earnings Strategy 👉 We simply don’t know which direction NVDA will move after earnings. Typically, implied volatility (IV) expands before earnings (~90% of the time) and collapses for the nearest expiration immediately afterward. Even IV on farther-dated expirations can continue to drift lower for a week or two post-earnings. My Plan Since I haven’t opened a time spread trade, I’m focusing on post-earnings setups. If NVDA makes a huge move (breaking out of the 120–150 range), I’ll likely wait at least one more day before placing any new position to let open interest (OI) restructure. April expirations will be more interesting for me after the dust settles.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by TanukiTrade
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/26/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 21240.75 - PR Low: 21210.00 - NZ Spread: 68.75 Key scheduled economic events: 10:00 | Crude Oil Inventories - New Home Sales Continuing strong value decline to 21000 long-term inventory - Pivot off previous session close, retracing 50% to 21300 - Maintaining inventory low range of previous 3 months Session Open Stats (As of 1:05 AM 2/26) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 357.48 - Volume: 23K - Open Int: 287K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -5.1% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025Long
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/25/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 21453.75 - PR Low: 21366.50 - NZ Spread: 195.25 Key scheduled economic events: 10:00 | CB Consumer Confidence Value decline below daily Keltner average cloud to 21415 pivot - Rotating back above previous session close, same as the low - Quick dip into 21400 supply zone Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 2/25) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 351.43 - Volume: 44K - Open Int: 287K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -4.5% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025
by mv3trader5
Bitcoin | 60-Day OutlookYou may wonder, where did I get this price path prediction from? I audited the entire chart of bitcoin from when it was created to now. Compared every top, bottom and consolidation move to present. The one you see here does not accurately predict the EXACT price it rejects, supports from BUT, it has predicted the last few months of price action for me so far. First target is FWB:88K Second target is $85K-$84K then a bounce back to $105K and a drop. For the next few months, Bitcoin is going to be volatile and consolidate during its top formation.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by LeapTrades
1
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/24/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 21774.50 - PR Low: 21676.75 - NZ Spread: 218.25 No key scheduled economic events Daily levels updated: pivots and expansion - Faded back to daily Keltner average cloud - Auction holding above Friday's close, retraced ~20% Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 2/24) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 352.52 - Volume: 36K - Open Int: 282K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -2.9% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025
by mv3trader5