NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/9/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15076.00
- PR Low: 14990.50
- NZ Spread: 190.75
No Significant Economic Events
Huge weekend gap down
- Relatively super wide open session range
Evening Stats (As of 1:25 AM)
- Weekend Gap: -0.65% (open > 15132)
- Session Gap: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 269.15
- Volume: 44K
- Open Int: 257K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -10.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 16105
- Mid: 15247
- Short: 14675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
Volatility
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/6/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 14861.25
- PR Low: 14853.75
- NZ Spread: 17.0
Key Economic Events:
08:30 – Average Hourly Earnings
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- Unemployment Rate
Micro NZ Spread ahead of high volatility expectation
- Brokers raise margin requirement for news
- Prev session printed as inside day
Evening Stats (As of 1:25 AM)
- Weekend Gap: +0.49% (filled)
- Session Gap: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 244.15
- Volume: 26K
- Open Int: 249K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -11.5% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 16105
- Mid: 15247
- Short: 14675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
A Guide to Effective Trading with the Keltner Channel
The Keltner Channel is a technical indicator that helps traders analyze price volatility and identify possible entry and exit points. It was developed by Charles Keltner in the 1960s and remains popular among technical traders today.
The main components of the Keltner Channel include:
Moving Average (SMA): This is the average of the price over a certain period of time. The moving average is used as the center line of the Keltner Channel and serves as a reference level for analysis.
Keltner Channel Upper Band: This band sits above the moving average and is usually calculated as the sum of the moving average and the average true range (ATR) multiplied by a factor. It provides information about potential resistance levels.
Lower Keltner Channel Band: This band is below the moving average and is calculated in a similar manner as the upper band, but subtracting the ATR multiplied by a factor. It indicates possible support levels.
The basic idea behind using the Keltner channel is as follows:
Trend Analysis: If the price is above the upper band of the Keltner Channel, it may indicate an uptrend. If the price is below the lower band, it may indicate a downtrend.
Volatility: A widening Keltner Channel indicates an increase in volatility, while a contraction indicates a decrease.
Entry and Exit Points: Traders use Keltner Channels to determine when to enter and exit the market. For example, crossing the upper band may signal a possible price decline and be considered a sell signal, while crossing the lower band may be a buy signal. However, in the original methodology it is considered that the crossing of the upper line by the price is a signal to open a long position, and the lower one - to open a short position
Signal Filtering: Some traders use other indicators, such as Average Directional Index (ADX), to filter Keltner Channel signals and confirm trend strength.
Let's consider this strategy. Entry into a long position will occur when the candle closes above the upper boundary of the Keltner channel and the DMI is above the threshold and shows a green band. Stop loss can be placed on the opposite side of the counter channel and make the risk reward ratio 2:1, for example. For a short position, it will be the opposite when the candle closes below the Keltner channel and the DMI bar will be red and above fresh hope with the same risk reward ratio and the position will reach the target.
This strategy is quite simple and can be traded quite effectively if taking into account risk and money management. You can see one of our realized trading bots using Keltner channel breakdowns here.
Wunder Keltner bot:
Wunder Keltner bot is based on the breakout of the Keltner channel. Therefore we will need two indicators for a complete strategy: DMI and Keltner Channel.
What is DMI?
DMI stands for Directional Movement Index, and it is a technical indicator used in financial markets, particularly in the field of technical analysis. DMI is designed to assess the strength and direction of a trend, helping traders identify potential trend breakouts and the overall market momentum. It is a straightforward yet powerful tool that can be applied to various trading strategies.
The Directional Movement Index consists of two components: the Positive Directional Indicator (+DI) and the Negative Directional Indicator (-DI), which are both calculated using price movement data. Here's how these components work:
Positive Directional Indicator (+DI): This component measures the strength of the upward price movement or the bullish trend. It is calculated by comparing the difference between today's high price and yesterday's high price to the difference between yesterday's high and yesterday's low. The result is then smoothed to provide a more accurate reading.
Negative Directional Indicator (-DI): On the other hand, the -DI measures the strength of the downward price movement or the bearish trend. It is calculated similarly to the +DI but focuses on the downside price movements.
Once the +DI and -DI values are calculated, the DMI itself is often represented as a single line, along with a complementary line known as the Average Directional Index (ADX). The ADX helps traders assess the overall strength of the trend, regardless of whether it's bullish or bearish.
Let's take a look at the key entry points. To enter Long, we need to see the deviation above the norm, and it is also important for us that the ADX value is above the specified level. You can see an example of a long position and also an example of a short position.
For calculation, 2 channels are used, one for long trades, and the other for short trades. The division into 2 channels is used for more accurate entry calculations depending on trend directions. The ADX indicator is used to filter signals and determine the trend strength. ADX determines the strength of the trend and confirms the entry into the strategy if the value is greater than the level indicated in the settings.
A function for calculating risk on the portfolio (your deposit) has been added to the script. When this option is enabled, you get a calculation of the entry amount in dollars relative to your Stop Loss. In the settings, you can select the risk percentage on your portfolio. The loss will be calculated from the amount that will be displayed on the chart.
Conclusion:
The Keltner Channel is a valuable technical indicator that can help traders assess price volatility and make informed decisions about entering and exiting positions in the financial markets. Developed by Charles Keltner in the 1960s, it remains a popular tool among technical analysts due to its simplicity and effectiveness.
Remember that no trading strategy is foolproof, and success in the financial markets requires discipline, continuous learning, and adaptability. It's essential to backtest and practice any strategy in a risk-controlled environment before implementing it with real capital. Additionally, always stay informed about market news and events that can impact your trades.
Ultimately, the Keltner Channel, when used in conjunction with other tools and a well-thought-out strategy, can be a valuable asset in your trading toolkit, helping you navigate the complexities of financial markets and work toward your trading goals.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/5/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 14913.75
- PR Low: 14894.25
- NZ Spread: 43.5
Key Economic Event
08:30 – Initial Jobless Claims
Back to highs of daily range
- Holding prev session highs
Evening Stats (As of 2:25 AM)
- Weekend Gap: +0.49% (filled)
- Session Gap: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 247.12
- Volume: 39K
- Open Int: 253K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -11.1% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 16105
- Mid: 15247
- Short: 14675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/4/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 14720.00
- PR Low: 14700.50
- NZ Spread: 43.5
Key Economic Events
08:15 – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
09:45 – S&P Global Services
10:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
10:30 – Crude Oil Inventories
Heavy volume and Open Interest
- Returned to daily inventory over 14600
Evening Stats (As of 12:15 AM)
- Weekend Gap: +0.49% (filled)
- Session Gap: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 242.14
- Volume: 46K
- Open Int: 254K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -12.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 16105
- Mid: 15247
- Short: 14675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
Exploding MOVE/VIX Ratio: A Major Warning SignHey everyone 👋
Guess what? This post was created by two TradingView users! @SquishTrade and I collaborated on this post.
We wanted to share our thoughts about the MOVE/VIX ratio, which has been exploding recently, and which may be presenting a warning about the future movement of the S&P 500 ( SPX ).
Before we begin, here's a bit more about the MOVE index:
The MOVE Bond Market Volatility Index measures the expected volatility of the U.S. Treasury bond market. It is calculated based on the prices of options contracts on Treasury bonds. The higher the price of these options, the higher the expected volatility of the market. The MOVE index is widely used by investors, traders, and analysts as a measure of risk in the bond market, as changes in market volatility can have a significant impact on the prices of bonds and other financial instruments.
The above image shows a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond issued in 1976.
Here's a bit more about the VIX volatility index:
The VIX is a measure of volatility in the stock market. More specifically, the VIX measures volatility by using weighted prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates. When the VIX volatility index was created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) in 1993, it was calculated using at-the-money (ATM) options. In 2003, the calculation was modified to include a much wider range of ATM and out-of-the-money (OTM) strikes with a non-zero bid. The only SPX options that are considered by the volatility index calculation are those whose expiry period lies within more than 23 days and less than 37 days.
The above image shows the highest VIX ever recorded at the close of a trading day. It occurred near the start of the COVID-19 pandemic shutdown.
Recently, @SquishTrade discovered that the ratio between the MOVE bond volatility index and the VIX volatility index has been rising along a trend line (as shown below).
Indeed, since 2021, the MOVE/VIX ratio has been exploding higher and is now approaching the highest level ever.
@SquishTrade identified that the daily chart of the MOVE/VIX ratio has shown a moderately strong positive correlation to moves in the S&P 500, this correlation appears to be statistically significant.
Citing the above chart, @SquishTrade further explains that:
The peaks in MOVE/VIX seem to correlate with peaks in SPX, especially since late 2021 (exceptions in yellow circles). This makes sense. When a rise in MOVE occurs, but VIX stays low, this raises the ratio. Of course, when VIX stays low, it's almost always because SPX price has risen or remains supported. Overall, higher MOVE and lower VIX suggest underlying problems in broader bond markets / financial system / economy AND that this is not being reflected in implied volatility (IV) for SPX. In other words, for a variety of reasons, some of which may have to do with volatility players, equity volatility shows that equities don't care yet.
When the VIX rises, the ratio falls. The interesting thing is that the peaks in MOVE/VIX correspond with the peaks in the SPX. The other interesting thing is the general trend up in MOVE/VIX and the corresponding trend down in SPX since late 2021.
So when MOVE/VIX peaks, it is as if rates markets are flashing red, and SPX is rallying like all is well. That process continues until a top in both SPX and MOVE/VIX occurs, at which time SPX gets the memo, VIX rises, and the MOVE/VIX and SPX fall together.
My response to @SquishTrade's above analysis is that: It is my belief that the explosive move higher in the MOVE/VIX ratio relates to the capital dislocation hypothesis, which I explain in further detail in my TradingView post below:
In short, the capital dislocation hypothesis is that there is far too much capital in the stock market (SPX) for bond yields to be as high as they are (and while GDP growth is also as low as it currently is). Similarly, S&P 500 volatility (VIX) is far too low for bond volatility (MOVE) to be as high as it is, as @SquishTrade alludes above.
Exeter's inverted pyramid (shown below) ranks financial assets according to safety, with the safest assets at the bottom of the inverted pyramid. Whenever an asset lower down on the inverted pyramid becomes volatile, riskier assets above it tend to experience some greater degree of volatility. This often occurs on a lagging basis since macroeconomic processes are not instantaneous.
Therefore, we can extrapolate that the extreme volatility of U.S. Treasury bonds will likely precede extreme volatility in riskier asset classes, including stocks. Consequently, the exploding MOVE/VIX ratio is likely a warning that the VIX may move much higher soon. Chart analysis of the VIX, as shown below, potentially supports this conclusion.
Bond volatility, as measured by the MOVE index, has likely increased due to the market's extreme uncertainty about the future of interest rates and monetary policy. This extreme uncertainty underpins the stagflation paradox: persistently high inflation pulls the central bank toward monetary tightening (higher bond yields) while liquidity issues and slowing economic growth pull the central bank toward monetary easing (lower bond yields), thus resulting in bond volatility. The explosion of bond volatility is likely a sign of impending stagflation, which may be severe. For more of my stagflation analysis, you can read the below post:
Certain futures markets, such as the Eurodollar futures market, which typically guides the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, have been experiencing historically high volatility, as shown below.
The above futures chart suggests that the uncertainty about future interest rates stems directly from ambivalent market participants. Since the Federal Reserve generally follows the market, if there is extreme uncertainty and ambivalence about the future of interest rates among market participants then the result will likely be a period of whipsawing monetary policy (whereby the Fed hikes, cuts, hikes, and cuts interest rates in rapid succession). In the quarters and years to come, we will likely see extreme monetary policy whipsaw as the Federal Reserve grapples with the dueling high inflation and slowing economic growth crises that characterize stagflation.
Be sure to follow @SquishTrade on TradingView, and let us know in the comments below if you would like us to collaborate on additional posts! If you're interested in collaborating with us, also let us know!
Important Disclaimer
Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/3/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15010.00
- PR Low: 14985.75
- NZ Spread: 54.25
Main Calendar Event:
10:00 – JOLTs Job Openings
Prev session closed relatively flat
- Double daily inside print
- Strong potential to break either direction
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: +0.49% (filled)
- Session Gap: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 230.02
- Volume: 29K
- Open Int: 247K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -10.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 16105
- Mid: 15247
- Short: 14675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/2/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15007.25
- PR Low: 14934.75
- NZ Spread: 161.75
Main Economic Calendar Events:
10:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI
- ISM Manufacturing Prices
11:00 – Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Strong weekend gap up, unfilled
- Huge NZ spread
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: +0.49% (open <14900)
- Session Gap: -0.01% (closed)
- Session Gap: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 236.70
- Volume: 36K
- Open Int: 243K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -10.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 16105
- Mid: 15247
- Short: 14675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/29/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 14894.75
- PR Low: 14872.75
- NZ Spread: 49.0
Significant Calendar Event
08:30 – Core PCE Price Index
Last trading day of the month
- Took a few more dips into long-term inventory
- Continuing supply run back to 14949 micro gap
Evening Stats (As of 1:15 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap: -0.01% (open > 14949)
- Session Gap: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 232.88
- Volume: 30K
- Open Int: 242K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -11.3% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 16105
- Mid: 15247
- Short: 14675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/28/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 14775.00
- PR Low: 14743.25
- NZ Spread: 70.5
Major Calendar Events
08:30 – Initial Jobless Claims
- GDP
10:00 – Pending Home Sales
16:00 – Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Strong response of the 14670 inventory zone
- Supply run started afternoon of prev session
- Continued volatility 1st hour, creating wide NZ spread
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap: -0.01% (open > 14949)
- Session Gap: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 230.61
- Volume: 33K
- Open Int: 242K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -12.1% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 16105
- Mid: 15247
- Short: 14675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
SN LongBought half size this afternoon as SN cleared a recent consolidation pivot after gapping up this morning. In a better environment, I'd have bought in full size today, but I'll look to hold and buy more if / when the stock reaches its debut-day high of $52.90 and the environment improves. Reasons for entry are simple... stock gapped up on earnings, pulled in and then gapped away again on even higher volume than the earnings day. It has continued to show solid volume patterns with volume surges accompanying big up days (including today) & had a nice volume dry-up leading into today's gap and push.
Stop is just below where a complete gap fill would occur. Will be looking to slide the stop up as soon as I can given the poor environment. Would like to see a big volume up day bring us back to the debut-day high to drag that anchored VWAP from the 9/11/23 gap up above my breakeven price.
BTC Implied Volatility Surpasses ETH, Urging Traders to ExerciseIntroduction:
In recent times, the cryptocurrency market has witnessed a significant surge in volatility, causing traders to reassess their strategies and approach. Notably, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced an unprecedented level of implied volatility, surpassing that of Ethereum (ETH) over the last 10 days. As a trader, it is crucial to recognize this heightened uncertainty and take a conservative stance to protect your investments. This article aims to shed light on the current market conditions and provide a call-to-action for traders to exercise caution until a more predictable trend takes shape.
Understanding Implied Volatility:
Implied volatility refers to the market's expectations of future price fluctuations. It is an essential metric that traders utilize to assess the potential risks and rewards associated with a particular asset. When implied volatility is high, it indicates increased uncertainty and potential price swings, making trading decisions more challenging.
BTC Implied Volatility Surpasses ETH:
Over the past 10 days, Bitcoin has experienced a surge in implied volatility, surpassing that of Ethereum. This development suggests that the market perceives Bitcoin to be more unpredictable and prone to sudden price movements compared to its counterpart. While Bitcoin's volatility has always been a characteristic of the cryptocurrency, the current levels are noteworthy and demand careful consideration.
The Importance of a Predictable Trend:
In times of heightened volatility, it becomes increasingly difficult to make accurate predictions and execute profitable trades. As a conservative trader, it is crucial to prioritize risk management and protect your capital. By pausing BTC trading until a more predictable trend emerges, you can avoid unnecessary exposure to potential losses and navigate the market more effectively.
Call-to-Action: Exercise Caution and Wait for a Predictable Trend:
Considering the current market conditions, it is prudent for traders to exercise caution and refrain from trading Bitcoin until a more predictable trend takes shape. By adopting a conservative approach, you can minimize the risks associated with heightened volatility and protect your investments. Instead, focus on monitoring the market, analyzing price patterns, and identifying key indicators that may indicate a more stable trend.
In the meantime, consider diversifying your portfolio by exploring other cryptocurrencies or traditional assets that may offer more stability. This approach allows you to mitigate potential losses and maintain a balanced investment strategy.
Conclusion:
As BTC implied volatility tops ETH for a record over the last 10 days, it is essential for traders to acknowledge the increased uncertainty in the market. By adopting a conservative tone and urging caution, this article emphasizes the significance of waiting for a predictable trend before resuming BTC trading. Remember, protecting your capital and prioritizing risk management are key to long-term success in the ever-evolving cryptocurrency market.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/27/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 14729.75
- PR Low: 14713.00
- NZ Spread: 37.25
Major Calendar Events:
08:30 – Core Durable Goods Orders
10:30 – Crude Oil Inventories
Inventory decline below 14800
- Trading into 8/18 pivot
- Holding above prev session low
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap: -0.01% (open > 14949)
- Session Gap: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 228.03
- Volume: 26K
- Open Int: 241K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -12.1% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 16105
- Mid: 15247
- Short: 14675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/26/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 14952.50
- PR Low: 14941.00
- NZ Spread: 25.5
Major Calendar Events
08:30 – Building Permits
10:00 – CB Consumer Confidence
- New Home Sales
Odd, unfilled micro gap down into inventory run
- Tight NZ spread
- Holding daily inventory
- High probability to fill gap within session
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap: -0.01% (open > 14949)
- Session Gap: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 229.32
- Volume: 27K
- Open Int: 232K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -11.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 16105
- Mid: 15247
- Short: 14675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/25/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 14915.00
- PR Low: 14878.00
- NZ Spread: 82.5
NO SIGNIFICANT CALENDAR EVENTS
Relatively wide NZ spread
Evening Stats (As of 1:15 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 231.28
- Volume: 25K
- Open Int: 228K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -11.1% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 16105
- Mid: 15247
- Short: 14675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/22/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 14871.25
- PR Low: 14850.00
- NZ Spread: 47.75
Significant Economic event:
09:45 – S&P Global Services PMI
Continuing inventory decline
- Near 14800 pivot from 8/25
Evening Stats (As of 1:15 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 235.77
- Volume: 32K
- Open Int: 236K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -11.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 16105
- Mid: 15247
- Short: 14675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
Crude Oil Shows Potential Signs of ToppingCrude oil has been running since early summer, but there may be signs of a top.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the “shooting star” candlestick on Tuesday. Prices climbed to their highest level of the year before reversing lower. They dropped further on Wednesday, confirming the potentially bearish reversal pattern.
Second, CL1! has been at the top of its Keltner Channel. A potential reversion down the range could imply a drop of about 10 percent.
Third, Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is dipping from its most overbought condition since March 2022.
Fourth, Rate of Change made a lower high this week as price made a higher high. That kind of bearish divergence often precedes reversals lower.
Finally, these patterns have occurred below the 93.50 area where crude oil had a double top in October and November 2022. That may suggest its longer-term trend has failed to become truly bullish.
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NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/21/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15148.00
- PR Low: 15114.00
- NZ Spread: 75.75
Volume increase following FOMC afternoon
Up Next...
08:30 – Initial Jobless Claims
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
10:00 – Existing Home Sales
Broke daily inventory floor of prev weeks
- Continuing to sell into London hours
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 231.45
- Volume: 35K
- Open Int: 238K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -10.0% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 16105
- Mid: 15247
- Short: 14675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/20/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15386.50
- PR Low: 15377.25
- NZ Spread: 20.75
Tight NZ spread ahead of FOMC day
14:00 – FOMC Economic Projections
- FOMC Statement
- Fed Interest Rate Decision
14:30 – FOMC Press Conference
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 224.75
- Volume: 17K
- Open Int: 235K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -8.5% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 16105
- Mid: 15247
- Short: 14675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
Will Vertex Get More Vertical?Vertex Pharmaceuticals has been quietly sitting near record highs, and now some traders may look for movement to the upside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the tight consolidation pattern since early August. VRTX barely fell despite a steeper pullback in the broader market -- a potential sign of relative strength.
The narrow range also pushed Bollinger Bandwidth to its narrowest since early 2020. Are prices due to start moving again?
Next, the stock ended Monday at $352, its highest closing price in six weeks. That might draw fence sitters from the sidelines.
Also consider the series of higher weekly lows since the spring. It could be a sign of buyers lurking near current prices.
Finally, prices have remained near the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) without breaking under them. That could suggest the longer-term uptrend remains in effect.
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NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/19/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15430.75
- PR Low: 15421.25
- NZ Spread: 21.0
Significant Economic Event:
08:30 – Building Permits
Prev session closed virtually flat
- Small NZ spread returns
Evening Stats (As of 12:15 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 227.41
- Volume: 16K
- Open Int: 240K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -8.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 16105
- Mid: 15247
- Short: 14675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.