QQQ pressing against monthly resistanceQQQ is looking VERY strong after this CPI print, so many people were net bearish and we likely are seeing a squeeze as well. I would not be surprised to see ATHs next quarter, I do believe the economy is in for some pain next year though and would recommend being cautious.
Volatility
Hood updateI did layer on more calls on the ARK news adding more hood shares. Alphabet did sell their remaining shares which might have caused that large red candle. The HV has plummeted to very low levels along with RSI which makes me believe this is oversold. First sell target is 9.45$, we are approaching the daily gap and I believe this can close very quickly with this bullish CPI print.
Link looking to continue forwardLINK despite the rejection is flashing bullish on all of the long term momentum indicators. RSI is high, HV is climbing, the token has dipped into local demand on the daily and is looking at another test of monthly resistance. LINK was first mover in 2018 and held strong during the covid crash I wouldnt fade that token as one of the most obvious (safer) picks in the market for a hold into BTC price discovery. 22 UPCOM:ISH is next fib level too.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/14/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15561.75
- PR Low: 15551.75
- NZ Spread: 22.5
Key Economic Event
08:30 – CPI (Core/MoM/YoY)
Low participation led to prev session closing virtually flat
- Low PR spread, maintaining low vols
- Expected volatility spike for CPI
- Margin requirement increase
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Gap 8/2: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Gap 7/20: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 234.89
- Volume: 17K
- Open Int: 267K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -7.3% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
WTI Crude Oil :: January 2024 Contract :: CLF2024WTI Crude Oil :: January 2024 Contract :: CLF2024
As of November 13, at a current volatility level of 37, the underlying January 2024 WTI futures price has a 68% chance (1-StdDev) to be inside of the range between 70 and 85 at the CLF24 expiration on December 19, 2023.
CME volume data has shown that traders have been more aggressively trading the 85 Strike Calls and the 70 Strike Puts, perfectly wrapping the 1 Standard Deviation of the December 10 WTI settlement price.
The CFTC COT Report shows that, toward the beginning of October, fund managers have been aggressively subtracting from their long positions.
The CFTC COT Report also shows that, near mid to late October, fund managers have been adding short positions, resulting in a decreasing net positioning.
NYMEX:CLF2024
AVAX cool off before 28$ price targetAVAX along with other alts is looking to cool off for a bit, AVAX did not get the same run as Solana because it actually has price action near the lows, SOL dumped so quickly it pretty much created gaps through multiple weeks. AVAX HV is increasing, the RSI is cooling off, this is good, more volatility, more reward. I expect AVAX to dip into this demand and bounce if BTC behaves. Short-term bearish for a few days at most.
Massive cup and handle on ilvWith the impending 3rd version of the Beta end of month, Iluvium is looking to be fully live early next year. This cup and handle is multi month and massive, RSI picking up steam, HV is reaching a historical level, the road will likely be rocky but I foresee a large upswing in the coming weeks, I am entering into the handle with spot.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/13/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15601.00
- PR Low: 15548.50
- NZ Spread: 117.5
No key calendar events
Opening the week pulling back from Friday high
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Gap 8/2: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Gap 7/20: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 247.80
- Volume: 33K
- Open Int: 272K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -7.3% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/10/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15254.75
- PR Low: 15223.75
- NZ Spread: 69.5
No key economic events
Apparently Powell brought in enough interest to break the green streak
- Open interest and volume increase
- Finding inventory below prev session low
Evening Stats (As of 1:35 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Gap 8/2: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Gap 7/20: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 234.25
- Volume: 33K
- Open Int: 268K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -9.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/9/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15360.00
- PR Low: 15344.50
- NZ Spread: 34.5
Key economic events
08:30 – Initial Jobless Claims
14:00 – Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Prev session closed virtually flat
- Holding the highs
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Gap 8/2: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Gap 7/20: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 235.38
- Volume: 18K
- Open Int: 265K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -8.5% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
The Alarming Volatility of the US Dollar – A Call to Action
The recent turbulent fluctuations witnessed in the strength of the US Dollar have left experts bewildered and traders on edge. As we navigate through these uncertain times, it is crucial that we take a moment to pause and reevaluate our trading positions before potentially exposing ourselves to unnecessary risks.
The unprecedented volatility of the US Dollar has sent shockwaves across the global financial markets, stemming from a multitude of economic, political, and social events. These complexities have made it exceedingly challenging for even the most experienced traders to predict or decipher the future direction of the dollar accurately. The sudden shifts and erratic movements have destabilized not only its inherent value but also significantly influenced the correlation with other major currencies.
Given the circumstances, I implore you all to reflect upon your current dollar trading strategies. It is paramount that we reassess the potential risks and rewards associated with trading the US Dollar in the present climate. As responsible traders, it is vital to exercise caution and adjust our positions accordingly, considering the magnitude of uncertainty that envelopes the dollar's market stability.
I strongly encourage you to undertake a thorough analysis of your portfolios, taking into account the potential consequences of sustained volatility and the possible ripple effects on other currencies and financial assets. It is prudent to diversify your holdings, exploring alternative investment options that may help mitigate the potential risks associated with the current dollar turbulence.
In these challenging times, it is crucial for us to remain vigilant, responsible, and adaptable in our approach. By taking a pause and reevaluating our dollar trading strategies, we can safeguard our investments and insulate ourselves from sudden and adverse market movements. Remember, preserving capital is equally as important as pursuing profits.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/8/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15374.75
- PR Low: 15362.75
- NZ Spread: 27.0
Key Economic Events
09:15 – Fed Chair Powell Speaks
10:30 – Crude Oil Inventories
Daily supply lift continues
Evening Stats (As of 12:25 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Gap 8/2: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Gap 7/20: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 243.71
- Volume: 22K
- Open Int: 265K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -8.5% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
XRP Daily Chart Analysis
🚀 Major Resistance Levels:
$0.69
$0.73
🔍 Trend-Based Fib Extension Targets:
$0.79
$0.85
$0.96
📊 Key Indicators and Insights:
1️⃣ Accumulation/Distribution Indicator:
Showing steady growth in accumulation is a positive sign for XRP.
2️⃣ Chaikin Money Flow (CMF):
Indicating an increase in money flows into XRP, potentially signalling growing interest.
3️⃣ Correlation Coefficient:
XRP is showing signs of decreased correlation with Bitcoin.
Recent examples of XRP not following BTC's price movements include May 27th, June 30th, and July 8th.
Currently, the correlation is around 70%, down from 100% last week, suggesting potential independent price action.
4️⃣ Parabolic SAR:
When SAR dots move below the price, it's a bullish (buy) signal.
This indicator is more effective on shorter time frames, complementing the accuracy of MACD.
5️⃣ Relative Volatility Index (RVI):
Reading between 65 and 85, signalling a bullish sentiment.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/7/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15222.50
- PR Low: 15203.25
- NZ Spread: 43.25
No key economic events
Slight lift of daily supply
- Print shows potential for reversal
- High anticipation for selling
Evening Stats (As of 12:25 AM)
- Weekend Gap: +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Gap 8/2: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap 7/20: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 245.39
- Volume: 24K
- Open Int: 258K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -9.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
POSSIBLE SELL OFFThe current market prices have recently undergone a significant change in liquidity, resulting in a likely minor retracement to collect additional orders before confirming a suitable buy for medium to long-term investments.
After a market sweep, entering into a "turtle soup" strategy may prove effective, although it is imperative to wait for confirmations to ensure that all necessary criteria have been met.
The current price has created an opportunity for character development, and an inducement has been identified.
Consequently, we propose taking an entry for a 1:2 risk/reward ratio to the previous low. We will monitor the market closely to evaluate how the investment performs.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/6/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 15203.00
- PR Low: 15172.50
- NZ Spread: 68.0
Lite week for key economic events
- Nothing scheduled for today's session
Holding Friday's highs
- 5 Green daily bars in a row
Evening Stats (As of 12:25 AM)
- Weekend Gap: +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Gap 8/2: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap 7/20: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 247.60
- Volume: 26K
- Open Int: 258K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -9.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/3/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 14962.00
- PR Low: 14924.25
- NZ Spread: 84.25
Key Economic Events
08:30 – Average Hourly Earnings
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- Unemployment Rate
09:45 – S&P Global Services PMI
10:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
Continuing to push supply with strength
- Breaking multiple levels of long-term sell interest
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Gap 8/2: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap 7/20: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 254.67
- Volume: 20K
- Open Int: 255K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -10.8% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/2/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 14773.75
- PR Low: 14759.75
- NZ Spread: 31.5
Key Economic Event
08:30 – Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing to lift supply away from weekend gap
- Near Oct 24 pivot high
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Gap 8/2: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap 7/20: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 256.53
- Volume: 28K
- Open Int: 254K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -11.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/1/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 14478.00
- PR Low: 14453.00
- NZ Spread: 56.0
FOMC Day
08:15 – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
10:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI
- ISM Manufacturing Prices
- JOLTs Job Openings
10:30 – Crude Oil Inventories
14:00 – FOMC Statement
- Fed Interest Rate Decision
14:30 – FOMC Press Conference
Holding over Monday's high
- NZ spread increase
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Gap 8/2: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap 7/20: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 249.56
- Volume: 18K
- Open Int: 258K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -13.8% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/31/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2023
- PR High: 14416.50
- PR Low: 14403.50
- NZ Spread: 29.0
Key Economic Event
10:00 – CB Consumer Confidence
Weekend gap still open
- Inside prev session range
- Broke into bear zone early
- Inventory response near prev session lows
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Gap 8/2: -0.33% (open > 15807)
- Session Gap 7/20: -0.11% (open > 15939)
- Session Open ATR: 258.34
- Volume: 31K
- Open Int: 256K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -14.5% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 15247
- Mid: 14675
- Short: 13531
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
VIX/VVIX warning shot!Per www.tradingview.com analysis here , I'd like to point out an update that we have just set a higher low from the multiple compression low of VIX and VIX/VVIX from the mega bull run early this summer.
This is a sort-of warning shot that the market is starting to become unsettled about sustaining these prices long term. Does that mean sell it all right now? No, certainly not. This is only the first higher low on the weekly chart.
But, if we see another successive higher low in VIX/VVIX as the price action in AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ bounce back in the coming weeks to possibly re-challenge the summer's highs if not even go past them some, it's time to start thinking about taking profits and taking a net short position, if you ask me.
That might be a month away, maybe a couple months away, it's hard to say. Just keep an eye out.
For options plays starting from yesterday (Friday 8/19/23) I'd start positioning with some positive delta exposure for the coming weeks, but keep an eye out to flatten and reverse that trade in the not distant future. Maybe we get a nice reversal to the upside to end August, but September has historically been the worst month for bulls on average.
I have a feeling that no matter what the Fed says at Jackson Hole this week, the re-positioning that happens around it after having been down in the couple weeks leading upto it, we may have a pop to the upside as big players re-hedge, and IV may well drop again as the market de-risks after digesting what they have to say.
But, as we round out August, if it appears the new IV and VIX/VVIX low post Jackson Hole is a higher low than the previous dip, I'd start flipping to have a negative delta exposure for sure, possibly for a longer term trade towards the end of the year. This could be somewhat like 2H 2018 all over again, but can't say if there is an aggressive bounce off a big low towards the end of the year. Will have to keep an eye on economic data. We're in a much more tenuous position than we were at the end of 2018.
FTNT update attempting to break divergence notedWith RSI rising and price falling we have clear bullish divergence. FTNT is taking another attempt at the medium term resistance of the teal line. The candles are also flirting with the 20SMA which is needed to confirm a bullish posture. This narrowing volatility should oscillate back to a wide pattern if RSI continues. My call setups are for 65$ ish. 59$ is first profit take.