NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 4/24/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2023
- PR High: 13073.75
- PR Low: 13060.50
- NZ Spread: 29.75
Evening Stats (As of 12:25 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Open ATR: 199.74
- Volume: 18K
- Open Int: 244K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From ATH: -22.1% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 13531
- Mid: 12959
- Short: 12392
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
Volatility
How to interpret Gaussian Channel Indicator.This is a supplementary post to the Analysis I posted yesterday (Link attached in Related Ideas).
Mathematically, the mid band is smoothed version of current Price just like a moving average but smoothening in Gaussian Channel is done recursively to filter out noise even more.
The top and lower bands are created by drawing them certain standard deviation away from the mid band.
We can use GC's direction to get a sense of the overall trend. Top and lower bands can be used to judge overbought and oversold conditions.
The width of the full channel is directly proportional to volatility.
Here is how I use the Gaussian channel:
1. All the bands act as Support and resistance levels so I look for buying and selling at those levels if I have other confluences like a harmonic PRZ, or S/R levels determined using some other method.
2. If I see Price going above or below the channel then I use the width of channel to determine how much it will deviate, if the Channel is narrow, it should not deviate much but if channel is huge price can take larger swings out of the channel once the price close above or below them on a particular timeframe. I have illustrated this in the chart.
3. I visually look for patterns of Price and Gaussian channel formation in the past and use that pattern to guess what will happen in future if the pattern is repeating. (Shown in the chart).
Idea with up 100% growth potential In a sense, Peloton stock is a record holder.
Its stock is down 95% from its historic high.
In such companies, as a rule, a huge amount of short is collected.
With a small positive, the price begins to grow and shortists are forced to buy back securities at high prices, which accelerates the asset even more.
In NASDAQ:PTON shares, you can try the following trade:
• Long off price: $8.5
• Goals: $13.5, HKEX:17
• Growth potential up to 100%
• Volume per trade: up to 0.5-1% of the portfolio.
At current prices, the largest volume profile for the year.
The stock has been sideways for a long time and we believe that there may be a good upward momentum.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 4/21/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2023
- PR High: 13090.00
- PR Low: 13076.75
- NZ Spread: 29.75
Evening Stats (As of 12:55 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Open ATR: 208.85
- Volume: 17K
- Open Int: 245K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From ATH: -22.0% (Rounded)
Closed flat 4 days in a row.
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 13531
- Mid: 12959
- Short: 12392
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
Dow Activity Decelerating...For How LongI don't think it escapes anyone's attention that market activity levels (volatility) are exceptionally low compared to recent history.
The VIX dropped below 17 and the innate activity levels on the major indices (like the ATRs) have followed the same course. The medium-term activity reading on the Dow (20-day) has dropped to the lowest levels since before the market topped and reversed at the beginning of 2022.
That marries nicely to the very narrow range that the blue chip index has made recently. The AMEX:DJIA cleared the smallest three-day range in a long time this morning with the gap down, but it probably isn't signaling 'breakout' follow through expectations for many outside of those with 5 minute time frame charts.
What is remarkable to me is that the activity levels are still decelerating - meaning short-term volatility is still dropping faster than medium-term. Here is the ratio of the 5-day (1 week) to 20-day (1 month) ATR ratio. There is natural 'mean' to this acceleration/deceleration.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 4/20/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2023
- PR High: 13166.00
- PR Low: 13141.75
- NZ Spread: 54.25
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Open ATR: 208.85
- Volume: 22K
- Open Int: 247K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From ATH: -21.5% (Rounded)
Closed flat 4 days in a row.
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 13531
- Mid: 12959
- Short: 12392
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
Bitcoin.
I am correcting the idea.
The upper limit of the flat been held yesterday. Here both Dpoc and large traded volumes. The lower border is being pushed through at the moment, there is an increased interest of players in the current levels.
I have two options: Safe – go above Dpoc (abt 30400) and above the flat border (blue rectangular) draw the pattern, look for a place for SL by vertical volumes, the first TP is 31700. Unsafe – we catch the price at 28500 – 28700 (volume protection). Here is the accumulation retest (orange rectangle) SL 28150-28170. TP - 31700
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 4/19/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2023
- PR High: 13182.25
- PR Low: 13170.50
- NZ Spread: 26.25
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Open ATR: 211.62
- Volume: 13K
- Open Int: 242K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From ATH: -21.4% (Rounded)
Closed flat 3 days in a row.
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 13531
- Mid: 12959
- Short: 12392
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
Understanding the Parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR) IndicatorThe Parabolic Stop and Reverse (PSAR) indicator is a technical analysis tool that helps traders identify potential reversals in price movements. It is represented by a series of dots that appear above or below the price chart. When the dots are below the price, it indicates a bullish trend potential, and when the dots are above the price, it signals a bearish trend potential. The indicator is calculated based on the price and time, and it adjusts its position as the price moves. When the price crosses the SAR, it signals a potential reversal. The indicator should be used in combination with other technical indicators to confirm trading signals.
One strategy for entries using the PSAR indicator is using it with another technical indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI). When using this strategy, traders can look for oversold conditions on the RSI and then wait for a buy signal from the PSAR indicator. This can help identify potential entry points for long positions. On the other hand, traders can look for overbought conditions on the RSI and then wait for a sell signal from the PSAR to identify potential entry points for short positions. However, it's important to keep in mind that no trading strategy is foolproof, and risk management should always be a top priority.
The PSAR indicator can also be used as a stop loss by traders. One way is to use it as a trailing stop loss, whereby the stop loss price is adjusted upwards as the price of the asset increases. Price crossing over the PSAR against the trade direction would signal the trader to close their position. This helps to lock in profits or limit potential losses. This can help to minimize losses and protect capital. Overall, the SAR indicator can be a useful tool for traders when used in combination with other technical indicators and risk management strategies.
NKLA Is Nikola puting in a bottom ?NKLA is trying to make an all time low. Fundamentally, the last earnings were okay. Some members of
the board are retiring soon. Technically, the relative selling volume is much higher than the moving 50 day average.
The zero lag MACD shows no bullish divergence suggesting that that there is no impending reversal. The
indicators K/D lines have not crossed indicating the moving average compression / convergence are continuing.
Price has fallen outside the Bollinger Bands. NKLA finished out the week with some engulfing bear candles
on the news of instability on its governing board. This is unlike the candlestick pattern when NKLA did minor
pullbacks on the downtrend foreseen by small body red candles to setup up the minor pullbacks.
All in all, as a penny stock, this is probably not shortable but it does have put options for $23.00 per contract
for the $1.00 strike DTE 5 with a spread of 5% with high volatility and open interest ( reasonable liquidity) I will
take a put option trade of several contracts targeting 50% return and setting a stop loss at 10%.
I have always found it helpful to have some naked puts in the portfolio so when the general market of SPY / QQQ reverses t
o the downside they can help the put options capture some profit in the synergy.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 4/18/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2023
- PR High: 13186.00
- PR Low: 13175.75
- NZ Spread: 22.75 🧊
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Open ATR: 215.89
- Volume: 15K
- Open Int: 238K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From ATH: -21.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 13531
- Mid: 12959
- Short: 12392
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
AAL LONG American AirlinesAAL is shown here on a one hour chart with anchored VWAP bands shown.
The anchoring is set for the beginning of the year. Based on the price action
drawn in are support and resistance zones. When price is one or more standard
deviations below the mean VWAP, the stock is undervalued and institutional buyers will
set buy orders. ( Short sellers will close there position to provide shares to
the buyers and take their profit off the table
(When the price is one or more standard deviations above the mean
VWAP, the stock is overvalued. Institutional sellers will sell their shares ( either
shares at a profit or short sell )
At present price, action has retreated to the upper part of the support zone.
AAL is getting to a buying point.
The relative volume indicator shows huge increases in volume compared with the
rolling average volume of the past 50 days. Essentially current volume is 10X
that average meaning there is extreme interest in this stock and great liquidity.
Fundamentally, AAL has had two prior quarters of earnings reports and the upcoming
earnings could be fueling volatility and potential price surge.
I see this as reversal setup for great entry for a 45-60 DTE call option at or in the money or a
long swing trade targetting just below the resistance zone or one standard deviation
above the VWAP.
🟩 VIX is coming to 18 month low🚨🚨 ONE LINER 🚨🚨
Attention, traders! The Volatility Index ( TVC:VIX ) is approaching an 18-month low, which could indicate a strong bullish signal for the market.
Background : Two months ago, in December 2022, I discussed the significance of the VIX dipping below the 20 level as a key milestone for a bullish market. Today, I want to dive deeper into this topic and share with you three compelling ideas that support the notion of an imminent bullish market. Let's explore the historical context and see how this information can help us make informed decisions in the current market.
💎 IDEA 1 OF 3: VIX as a Key Reversal Indicator
Since 2022, the TVC:VIX has demonstrated a strong correlation with market reversals when positioned under the 20 level. This pattern suggests two possible outcomes:
If the correlation breaks and VIX continues to stay low, we might see a sustained bullish trend.
If the market reacts positively to today's FED communication, it could further solidify the bullish sentiment.
It's essential to keep an eye on the market's reaction and the VIX's behavior from this point forward. During the bear market, the VIX typically fluctuated between 20 and 32, so a sustained drop below 20 could indicate a significant shift in market dynamics.
💎 IDEA 2 OF 3: VIX Levels During Market Rallies
Historically, a VIX level below 20 is often associated with market rallies. Although we are currently above 20, the VIX remains relatively elevated compared to periods of strong upward trends. As the VIX moves closer to the 20 level, it's important to watch for signs of an impending bullish market rally, similar to what we experienced on December 4, 2022.
💎 IDEA 3 OF 3: VIX as a Market Transition Indicator
In previous market transitions from high volatility bear markets to low volatility bull markets, the VIX played a crucial role. As the VIX pushed below the 20 level and remained there long-term, it allowed the market to rally upwards. We can use this historical precedent to study the current market and determine the probable direction.
CONCLUSION :
The VIX nearing an 18-month low presents a compelling bullish signal for traders. By analyzing the VIX's behavior as a key reversal indicator, its levels during market rallies, and its role in market transitions, we can gain valuable insights into the market's probable direction. Keep an eye on the VIX as it approaches the critical 20 level, and stay tuned for updates on the evolving market landscape.
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Here is a section for the real trading geeks who want to learn further:
Let's examine some historical examples that highlight the VIX's behavior in relation to market trends.
Example 1: 2009 Bull Market Rally
In March 2009, the VIX dipped below 40, a significant milestone after the 2008 financial crisis when it had reached an all-time high of 89.53. As the VIX continued to decline, the S&P 500 rallied more than 60% by the end of the year, marking the beginning of a new bull market.
Example 2: 2012 Market Rebound
In 2011, the VIX spiked above 40 during the European debt crisis, causing increased market volatility. However, by early 2012, the VIX had fallen back below 20, coinciding with a strong market rebound. The S&P 500 gained over 13% that year, reflecting a renewed sense of optimism and stability in the market.
Example 3: 2016 Post-Election Rally
In the months leading up to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, the VIX experienced increased volatility, hovering around the 20-25 range. After the election, the VIX dropped below 15, and the stock market began a multi-year rally that continued into 2018. This period of low VIX levels correlated with significant gains in the S&P 500.
These historical examples illustrate the VIX's ability to signal market sentiment and direction. When the VIX drops below key levels, such as 20, it often precedes a bullish market rally. By monitoring the VIX and its relationship with the overall market, traders can make more informed decisions and capitalize on potential opportunities.
Happy trading from TinTinTrading!
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 4/17/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2023
- PR High: 13214.75
- PR Low: 13186.00
- NZ Spread: 64.25
Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Open ATR: 223.82
- Volume: 18K
- Open Int: 229K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From ATH: -21.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 13531
- Mid: 12959
- Short: 12392
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.