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Volatility

POPCAT: Our Next Crypto Swing PlayIt's been a while since we posted any crypto swing trades. The last few months have been particularly challenging for swing plays, and we made very good profits just by scalping in August. However, we've been closely monitoring the higher time frames, and we believe we've found a potential play with POPCAT. For this trade to work out, we need BTC to behave, but so far, everything looks good, and the depth of the retracement is consistent with prior pullbacks. Recently, POPCAT has shown a change in structure after what seems to be a completed Wave (2). We want to bid on this continuation with a wider stop loss because there's a 12H FVG below that is relatively important for altcoins. There's a chance that we tag this FVG before rising higher, though a body close below it would invalidate our bullish outlook. Therefore, we're cautious but still want to place this bid, and we will DCA down if necessary. We'll keep you updated whenever we make any moves. As for targets, we're looking to go above the high of the latest COS, then the fair value gap above, and finally, a continuation above the current Wave (1). If we get this far, we would let it run as a moonbag, but we'll keep you informed regardless.
Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/4/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024 - PR High: 19005.75 - PR Low: 18947.00 - NZ Spread: 131.25 Key scheduled economic event 10:00 | JOLTs Job Openings Rollover back below daily Keltner average cloud Session Open Stats (As of 11:45 PM 9/3) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 412.95 - Volume: 45K - Open Int: 246K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -10.1% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2024Short
by mv3trader5
4hr BITCOIN mean reversion rejection - Leave the rest for laterIn #Bitcoin's 4-hour chart scenario, we reject the EMA50 we are currently at and take the low at $56k in the next couple of days. We get a lot of economic data in the next few days until Friday, which could strengthen the US dollar and lead Bitcoin into a sell-off. Chart-wise, it looks like a rejection of the 4hr EMA50. The first target would be $56k and if things look really ugly, we should also consider $51k as a possible target.
Short
by reports20netrust
2
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 9/3/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024 - PR High: 19683.00 - PR Low: 19615.50 - NZ Spread: 151.0 Key scheduled economic events 09:45 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 10:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI - ISM Manufacturing Prices Contract rollover month - Holding previous week's range - Near Friday's high Session Open Stats (As of 11:15 PM 9/2) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 388.02 - Volume: 94K - Open Int: 244K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -6.6% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2024Short
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/30/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024 - PR High: 19462.50 - PR Low: 19407.50 - NZ Spread: 123.0 Key scheduled economic events 08:30 | Core PCE Price Index (2x) 09:45 | Chicago PMI Last trading day of the month ahead of long Labor Day weekend - Auctioning near 50% of previous session range - Inventory response long off daily Keltner average cloud Session Open Stats (As of 2:15 AM 8/30) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 392.61 - Volume: 23K - Open Int: 241K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -7.1% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2024
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/29/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024 - PR High: 19264.75 - PR Low: 19140.25 - NZ Spread: 278.5 Key scheduled economic events 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims - GDP Break and follow-through below 19600 - Finding inventory zone around 19200 Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM 8/29) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 388.21 - Volume: 37K - Open Int: 238K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -8.0% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2024
by mv3trader5
QQQ sold off today and plummeted in after hoursQQQ started to finally show selling with momentum for first day in nearly a week of slowly selling. It looks as though distribution phase has passed and selling with momentum has begun. After hours etf continues to slide dramatically Bulls have lost with bears firmly in control at the moment The after hours sell we are experiencing now could possibly cause it to gap down on open then get filled in the morning before selling continues.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by ratchet-mint
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/28/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024 - PR High: 19645.00 - PR Low: 19575.50 - NZ Spread: 155.5 Key scheduled economic event 10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories Quick inventory grab into liquidity below 19500 - Maintaining week range from 19500 to 20000 Session Open Stats (As of 10:45 PM 8/27) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 377.89 - Volume: 18K - Open Int: 237K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -6.7% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2024
by mv3trader5
USD/NOK 1-Hour Long Signal Based on SMA/EMA Crossover and Bull BDescription In this idea, I want to highlight a potential long trading opportunity on the IBKR:USDNOK 1-hour chart, identified through a combination of technical indicators and thorough market analysis. 1-Hour Chart Analysis: A signal was generated as the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossed under the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), triggering a long entry condition. This crossover, highlighted by the yellow background on the chart, marks a potential shift in market momentum, signaling a possible bullish move. The strategy also incorporated the Bull Bear Power indicator to confirm this signal. The indicator showed that the bear power has weakened, falling below a predefined threshold of 0.00140, which further supports the idea of a potential upward move. Additionally, the strategy includes an ATR-based stop-loss and take-profit calculation, providing clear risk management levels for the trade. The stop-loss is set using a 1.2 ATR multiplier, while the take-profit is calculated with an 8.0 ATR multiplier, both rounded to the nearest value ending in 0 or 5 for precision. Daily Chart Analysis: Looking at the daily chart, we can observe that the previous day's candle left a significant shadow, indicating possible rejection of lower prices and potential buying pressure. The MACD histogram on the daily chart shows early signs of upward momentum, suggesting that the market might be gearing up for a bullish move. Moreover, the price is currently hovering around a key Fibonacci retracement level, adding another layer of support to the bullish scenario. Trade Details: Entry Price: 10.5439 Stop Loss: 10.46065 Take Profit: 10.6218
Long
by Tezbot
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/27/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024 - PR High: 19574.00 - PR Low: 19521.50 - NZ Spread: 117.5 Key scheduled economic event 10:00 | CB Consumer Confidence Maintaining daily range - Auctioning in 8/22 lows Session Open Stats (As of 10:45 PM 8/26) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 387.53 - Volume: 13K - Open Int: 232K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -6.7% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2024
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/26/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024 - PR High: 19832.50 - PR Low: 19731.50 - NZ Spread: 226.5 Key scheduled economic event 08:30 | Durable Goods Orders Maintaining Friday's inside print range - QQQ gap below 468 Session Open Stats (As of 10:45 PM 8/25) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 395.80 - Volume: 21K - Open Int: 236K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -5.6% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2024
by mv3trader5
USD/CHF: Signal Triggered - Expecting a Bullish MoveA buy signal has been generated for based on the following technical conditions: SMA50/EMA26 Crossover: The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA50) has crossed above the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA26), which is a strong bullish signal indicating a potential upward trend. Bullish Power Confirmation: Bull Bear Power indicator has confirmed the signal by reaching a specified level that historically correlates with positive price action. This level is carefully selected to filter out false signals and ensure high probability trades. Trade Setup: Entry Level: 0.85225 (Based on SMA50/EMA26 crossover) Stop-Loss: 08508 (Determined by the strategy) Take-Profit: 0.8622 (Calculated with a predefined multiplier on risk) This setup indicates that IBKR:USDCHF is likely to continue its upward movement, supported by strong technical indicators. Traders should consider entering a long position at the current market price.
Long
by Tezbot
1
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/23/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024 - PR High: 19637.25 - PR Low: 19612.50 - NZ Spread: 55.25 Key scheduled economic events 10:00 | Fed Chair Powell Speaks - New Home Sales 20000 pivot short back towards daily Keltner cloud - Maintaining previous session lows ahead of what could be a high vol Friday morning Session Open Stats (As of 1:55 AM 8/23) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 401.27 - Volume: 21K - Open Int: 234K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -6.1% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2024Long
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/22/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024 - PR High: 19944.00 - PR Low: 19912.25 - NZ Spread: 70.75 Key schedule economic events 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims 09:45 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI - S&P Global Services PMI 10:00 | Existing Home Sales Nondirectional volatility spike follow FOMC release - Maintaining range of previous 2 sessions Session Open Stats (As of 10:35 PM 8/21) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 395.55 - Volume: 11K - Open Int: 234K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -5.0% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2024Short
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/21/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024 - PR High: 19819.00 - PR Low: 19787.50 - NZ Spread: 70.5 Key scheduled economic events 10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories 14:00 | FOMC Meeting Minutes Swinging inside range ahead of FOMC day - Auction continues inside previous session range Session Open Stats (As of 11:15 PM 8/20) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 409.61 - Volume: 14K - Open Int: 237K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -5.5% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2024Long
by mv3trader5
How to use Implied Volatility Index to analyze Bitcoin▮ Introduction Bitcoin is known for its price volatility. Analyzing the price chart alone is often not enough to make buy and sell decisions. Implied volatility indexes such as DERIBIT:DVOL and VOLMEX:BVIV can complement traditional technical analysis by providing insights into market sentiment and expectations. ▮ Understanding DVOL/BVIV DVOL and BVIV measure the expected implied volatility of Bitcoin over the next 30 days, derived from real-time call and put options. DVOL is calculated by Deribit, the world's largest Bitcoin and Ether options exchange. BVIV is calculated by Volmex Finance; the data is extracted from exchanges (currently Deribit and OKX), and then combined into a single set. * In addition to Bitcoin, it is possible to analyze Ethereum-specific instruments through the ticks DERIBIT:ETHDVOL and VOLMEX:EVIV, whose line of reasoning is the same. ▮ Interpreting the chart 🔶 High DVOL/BVIV values ​​indicate that the market expects greater volatility in the next 30 days. This is usually associated with uncertainty, fear, or expected major events. 🔶 The index does not indicate the direction of the price, but rather whether volatility will increase or decrease. 🔶 Low values ​​indicate an expectation of lower volatility and are usually associated with calmer and more optimistic markets. 🔶 To get an idea of ​​the expected daily movement of Bitcoin, simply divide the DVOL value by 20. For example, a DVOL of 100 indicates an expected daily movement of 5%. 🔶 Divergences between the price of Bitcoin and DVOL/BVIV can signal inflection points. 🔶 Price rising with a drop in DVOL/BVIV may indicate exhaustion and a potential top. 🔶 Price falling with a drop in DVOL/BVIV may indicate exhaustion and a potential bottom. ▮ Example The price of BTC here is at the top in white. The DVOL and the RSI of DVOL are both in red. The reason I put the RSI here is that it is easier to analyze DVOL, since the values ​​are in a fixed range, therefore easier to interpret. On March 25, 2022, the RSI shows a contracted value of 30, that is, low implied volatility. This foreshadows a period of calm that precedes a period of agitation. In this case, the “agitation” soon materializes in a period of price decline. When the RSI then reaches the upper limit range, at 83 (on May 12, 2022), a peak in volatility is characterized. Then, after that, it begins to decrease. This decrease in volatility in DVOL corroborates the moment of Bitcoin’s lateralization within the orange box. ▮ Conclusion Although DVOL and BVIV should not be used in isolation, they can be valuable tools for confirming price chart signals and anticipating major movements. Incorporating implied volatility analysis into your strategy, can improve the timing of entries/exits and help manage risk. ⚠️ But remember: Just because a strategy worked in the past does not mean it will work forever. Past profitability is no guarantee of future profitability. Do your own analysis and risk management.
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INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by andre_007
11