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Volatility is contained, but for how long?Despite the Russia-Ukraine war, despite inflation being at record highs, the DXY making a new high since 2015-2016, the bond market being in its largest bear market and with equities down 20-30%, the VIX hasn't really spiked yet. So far volatility has been contained and every time the VIX would get overbought at 35 or above, it would slowly get back down. However I don't believe that it can get much lower without spiking first. In the short term it could get down to 20, but given the current circumstances, it is very hard for me to imagine that the top for the VIX won't come at around 48 or above. It is also very hard for me to imagine that it would get significantly below 20, therefore going long the VIX at 20 or below is a great strategy until the Fed pivots. However once it gets to 48 or higher it is time to start going long everything as the Fed is probably going to step in and try to save markets.
TVC:VIXLong
by BitcoinMacro
1
End of week recapGBP/AUD GBPAUD has been stuck in a range since the early part of May. This has been a pretty clean trade from range high to rage low. In my own terminology I would consider a range to be an efficient market, one that has defined top and bottom where markets have found equilibrium. These efficient markets can present a separate market characteristic this is another I call inefficient market one that see a quick reset in price. These explanations are made to make this trade seem easier to understand. That being said we are looking for the market to rebound with a stronger British Pound. Looking at the lower portion of the chart Vix indicator says vol is above 50 this is to be taken as bearish moment which indeed we are experiencing. Though I like to look at what price we are experiencing VIX above 50 las time price showed us a 50 VIX was 1.73-1.74 today we are much higher at 1.76. This for me allows me to take the stand that GBP/AUD is bullish at this point on the chart with a return to the upper range of the efficient zone.
Long
by RobinhoodFX
SKEW IndexDespite numerous mentions about the CBOE SKEW Index, we are no where near the 2018/2019 lows (which are the lowest readings on file for the past decade). Understanding how SKEW Index works, it's relationship to Vol Structures, and impact towards Gamma & Vega and how/what it implies by way of Institutional Hedging is another tool for the pros. Do your DD (due diligence) before reading someone's tweet, getting the reddit cliff notes version, and then deploying your personal capital...the markets are not easy, and complex relationships take time to understand all aspects and angles. MMs want you to believe everything is linear, but they just aren't!
S
by VeteranWS
VIX - An opening gap forecasts more pain for the stock marketIn the past week, the market saw a decrease in volatility , which accompanied the relief rally in the stock market. However, just recently, we stated that we expect the rally to be shortlived and to reverse its direction to the downside. We continue to hold this notion also nowadays; indeed, we expect an eventual breakdown in the stock market and new lows to be formed on QQQ , SPX , and the majority of the U.S. indices . Accordingly, we expect this process to be accompanied by another increase in volatility . Therefore, we would like to set a short-term price target for VIX at 30 USD, and a medium-term price target at 35 USD. Our views are supported by tightening economic conditions as well as bearish technical indicators pointing to the more downside in the stock market. Illustration 1.01 The picture shows QQQ on the daily chart . Two parallel white dashed lines constitute a downward moving channel, which is a bearish structure. The recent breakout below the structure indicates a very strong bearish trend of a higher degree. The sloped white dashed line acts as a resistance; on Nasdaq 100 continuous futures , the price is much closer to resistance. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the Nasdaq 100 continuous futures on the hourly chart. The yellow arrow pinpoints a perfect bull trap we outlined in our idea on QQQ . Illustration 1.03 The SPX shows a bearish resemblance with the Nasdaq 100 index . Illustration 1.04 The picture above shows a negative correlation between VIX and SPX, and Nasdaq. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
4
Vix: a tool to anticipate potential market tops & bottomsThis is just a guide for human psychology. Buy some when VIX is between 30 & 40 (FEAR phase). Sell some when VIX is between 15 & 20 (GREED phase). Vix the fear index is currently on an wide upchannel creating a lot of market volatility. However, we can use this channel range to anticipate temporary tops & bottoms until this channel breaks up or down. See chart for all the possible tops & bottoms & where this channel may possibly break down downward (stocks will rise in the last Quarter2022 before a STA CLAUS rally unless another black swan happens). Recession if it will happen may come after a year or 2 when unemployment starts to rise again & inflation/demand starts to plummet. Right now unemployment is very low & inflation is still rising. The action of FED to fight inflation by forcefully raising rates & reducing demand may risk sending US economy into STAGFLATION (slowing economy with rising inflation is very bad for stocks). Not trading advice. Hope this helps someone to understand the power of FEAR & GREED.
CBOE:VIX
by xtremerider8
India VIXWith FOMC outcome due tonight, volatility is increasing sharply (pre-event uncertainty) We are in the dark as to what FED will do tonight - so many possibilities, add to that statement - hawkish or dovish 25 bps market will rally 50 bps appears discounted 75 bps market will panic Hence better to stay light Above 21.75 the crucial resistance is at 2.80 if that breaches then be prepared for extreme moves (we have just seen the trailer in that case) all the way till 28 This would be mean large intra-day candles & gap openings. Avoid writing PE during such time unless well hedged. Also reduce derivative exposure its not worth it during such times. Post event wait for VIX to start cooling down, trend direction will become clear by then
NSE:INDIAVIX
by Dinesh_C_Nagpal
🔥 Using The VIX To Time Bitcoin BottomsFrom Investopedia: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index that represents the market’s expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the S&P 500 index (SPX). Because it is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates, it generates a 30-day forward projection of volatility. Volatility, or how fast prices change, is often seen as a way to gauge market sentiment, and in particular the degree of fear among market participants. In short, the VIX is a way to measure fear in the (stock) market. Higher values means more fear and mostly coincide with bearish price action. Consequently, a falling VIX means that investors gain confidence, which in turn in good for the markets. In addition, the VIX can be used to determine if the bottom is likely to be in or not, see the chart for some examples. VIX tops often coincide with short- and/or long-term Bitcoin bottoms. A strategy that I use it to wait for a strong reversal in the VIX to occur before scaling in back into the market. You won't time the market perfectly, but you're able to capture the majority of the bullish reversal. Furthermore, wait for the VIX to become overbought on the RSI on higher timeframes (>4H) before trying to time a reversal. As of yesterday, the VIX is falling sharply after seeing a big rise since April 3rd. This could signal that we're now trading at a (temporary) bottom and that we're likely to see more bullish price action in the near future. Keep in mind that the VIX will only tell one part of the story. Never solely rely on the VIX giving you a signal to either buy or sell.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by FieryTrading
11
New VIX Cycle - 4/11/2022VIX at the daily view. VIX finally broke its downtrend and RSI downtrend. It seem to have bounced off of the white pivot line (for now). April seems to be set as a rollercoaster of a month. There is earnings season which provides some liquidity. At the same time, the US tax deadline is coming up (April 18th). The wealthy usually wait until the last minute to cash out to pay their tax liability. The bond market has been sinking like no tomorrow since QE ended. At the same time, money mainly shifted to defensive sectors (e.g. utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples). Push-pull. On Twitter, I saw posts a month ago calling for VIX to be above 50. As stated before, it would be pretty hard for the VIX to break 50 unless the Federal Reserve does something highly expected like hiking rates to 5% by end of 2022... which is unlikely as it would require several conditions to reach that level of desperation. There is another reason why the VIX would have a hard time reaching 50 in the next few months. The VIX is the measurement of implied volatility within the options market of the ES/SPX. Options is not the entire market. Bigger investors have not been using options as much to hedge their portfolios. In a clever way, bigger investors have been using futures to hedge their portfolios. Why is it clever? Futures qualify under section 1256 which is not 100% short-term capital gains. It's a tax advantage. VIX would have a hard time to measure the implied volatility if the bigger hedges are heading into the futures market and not the options market. This is why most have a hard time understanding the VIX. It's a piece of the puzzle. You have to look at the bond market, credit market, FOREX market, options market, and individual sectors to see the full picture. Furthermore, one needs to master timing and risk management as well. Most traders think they know everything and stop learning after a few wins. Most become trapped in their dream of an epic crash or rally. The VIX doesn't care about your dreams or opinions. It's algorithms and formulas. VIX might have an uptrend leading to May FOMC. The Fed minutes indicate that quantitative tightening might start as soon as May instead of June/July. Furthermore, OPEX and taxes are coming up. That might cause some whiplash. VIX might be back to elevated levels again (above 24). I won't be surprised to hover above 24 for a little while. As for timing it, that's the issue. With hedges being split between options and futures, timing VIX spikes became even harder.
TVC:VIX
by Itsallsotiresome
VIX-S&P 500 FEAR INDEX-LESS FEAR, MARKETS CORRECTINGThe VIX measures the fear in the S&P 500. Even if you only trade or invest in crypto or stocks watching the VIX is critical in learning how to measure the sentiment of the general market regardless of what you are trading or investing. I use the VIX for even crypto trading and suits me well. It does the complete opposite of the what other stocks or cryptos do. Master understanding this chart and you will be better prepared at making successful trading entries and exits in the market. So despite the Russian Ukranian invasion the markets are correcting slowly and beginning to show promise once again. For details watch this video and give me a thumbs up and please subscribe to show support for my channel. Thank You Astreaus otherwise know as Cryptobuzzanalyst Disclaimer I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this TA,(Technical Analysis) are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, trading, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using or reading this technical analysis or site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this analysis, or post.
CBOE:VIX
by CryptoBuzzAnalyst
4
Bond Market Volatility & EconomyBond yields serve as a leading indicator of economic performance, with major headwinds in the form of inflation and labor shortages, short-term yields have begun to invert demanding higher premiums than longer-term bonds. As the bond market moves in anticipation, volatility increases and serves as a signal to the broader economy. $MOVE provides a benchmark with bond market volatility, with an uptrend and spikes nearing Feb/Mar 2020. The chart presents measurements going back to lat 2002, reflecting a dramatic uptick in volatility as the housing market collapsed in 2008. The uptrend reflected now is serving as another warning to the markets that turbulent times lay ahead.
TVC:MOVEShort
by R0MM3LL
1
VOLX bullish momentum! | 14th March 2022Prices are on bullish momentum and consolidating in a parallel channel . We see the potential for a bounce from our buy entry at 28.89 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Projection towards our Take Profit at 35.98 in line with 100% Fibonacci Projection . RSI is at levels where bounces previously occurred. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website
FX:VOLXLong
by FXCM