VIX vs S&P500 A simple correlation for buy/sell signalsVIX has been trading within a Channel Down since late April 2020 after the markets started to correct themselves following the COVID led March 2020 crash.
I have plotted the S&P500 on the chart and as you see from the comparison, the pattern is quite useful in determining when to sell stocks and when to buy. When VIX enters its Lower Lows zone, S&P500 starts to correct. If not immediately, then at least some days after it records a lower low from its previous price. Exception is August 6, 2020 when after the VIX hit the Lower Lows zone of the Channel Down, S&P500 continued to rise but still dropped lower than the VIX hit point even though it took it around 1 month to do so.
At the same time, when the VIX hits the Lower Highs zone of the Channel, it represents an optimal opportunity to buy stocks as it where S&P roughly makes its bottom.
Right now VIX is coming off a (near) Lower High and still has some way to go before hitting the Lower Lows Zone. This indicates that S&P should continue to rise, at least for the current month. Of course every pattern can be broken and this one will at some point but it is a fact that for over 1 year it has been giving the most consistent buy/ sell signals. Until it gets invalidate, the trend is your friend.
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Volatilityindex
VIX Breaks Key Uptrend!? [BULLISH]This will be a quick post as today we are witnessing something in the market that could prove to be bullish for the S&P500 in the near future. Most importantly, this could be a move that FINALLY leads to a definitive direction for the markets and that is in the fact that the S&P500 Volatility Index today has broken its trend that we have been in and now appears to be heading down toward lower, less volatile areas.
The ultimate goal we would like to see is a retest and eventual breaking of the 15 basis point level. A breaking of this level would mean a return to the ultra bullish buy-and-hold area that we are accustomed to seeing the market trade in.
If this occurs it could be fun times ahead for S&P500 stocks.
VIX Decision Time. 3 month rally or -6% correction on stocks?VIX has been trading within a Channel Down since March 2020, which is natural as the huge volatility spike following the COVID outbreak as a global pandemic has been normalized gradually.
Every bottom on this Channel Down was in the form of a Cup and a spike to the Lower Highs trend-line followed. Every time that was translated into a strong correction on the stock markets.
Right now it is the first time (on the 1D time-frame) that the price broke below this Cup. A break below the Green Line will indicate in my opinion a strong stock market rally for Q3. On the other hand a break above the Red Line may cause a medium-term correction on stocks within -3% and -6%.
What do you think will happen?
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Vix suggesting income Volatility?The signals on the 4 hr chart suggest that volatility on the S&P 500 should spike within the next day or so.
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Volatility S&P 500 index 1D-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS 💡Volatility S&P 500 index 1D-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS 💡
Hello ladies and gentlemen
This is my new idea for VIX
My idea is that VIX will go long to 55 Target
TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE COVID_19 MARKETS DROP
I hope my idea is clear
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Good luck💰💯
BTCUSD May See A Slow Down Based On Bitcoin Volatility IndexHello traders!
Today we will talk about Bitcoin Volatility Index and we will show you how to understand and read it compared to the BTCUSD chart using Elliott Wave theory.
Well, BTCUSD is in an impulsive rise from March lows and currently we are observing the final wave 5, mainly because of a rise out of wave 4 triangle, which in EW theory suggests the final move before we may see a deeper A-B-C corrective decline.
If we take a look at the BTC Volatility Index chart, we can see it approaching the lows again. And always, when BTC Volatility comes to the lows, we can expect some big action and huge volatility, especially if this is a wave 5 of a bigger ending diagonal.
So, considering that BTCUSD can be finishing wave 5 and BTC Volatility Index coming to the lows, we should be aware of a bigger corrective decline soon, ideally somewhere here at the end of August and beginning of September.
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W Recovery? VIX certainly looks like it!Crazy if true, but this VIX chart looks ready to explode IMO. Lots of complacency building up with the stock market being at (or near) all time highs. Meanwhile, bond yields are plummeting, gold is rocketing, and VIX is staying stubbornly high.
Determining what information is signal and what is noise is probably the hardest & most important job of a successful trader/investor. I think the way these stars are aligning they are the true signals while the stock market highs are noise. Buyers of stocks at these historically stretched valuations need to beware.
US30 SUPPLY AND DEMAND ORDER BLOCKS (UPDATE!!) Another 2 zones hit, retest of order block expansion price followed by a smooth move up in price to the next key liquidity line outlined.
VIX DecliningThe S&P500 Volatility Index(VIX) shows price testing the 78.6% Fib level near $28 and the first reading back below $30 since February. With the VIX below the 61.8% Fib retracement price is technically back in a bear trend and indicates that forward-volatility in the SPX is expected to dissipate. The VIX represents the market’s expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility and is derived from price inputs of the S&P500 index options, and it provies a measure of market risk and investors’ sentiment. It is also known as the “Fear Guage” or “Fear Index”. The ideal level for the VIX to be trading during an uptrend in the SP500 is below $20 as a signal that no implied volatility is expected in stocks.
The Relative Strength Index(RSI) shows the green RSI line and purple signal line both declining below the 50 level which indicates bearish momentum in the VIX, or a continued decline in SP500 volatility.
The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) shows the green PPO line and purple signal line both declining below the 0 level which indicates bearish momentum in the VIX.
The Average Directional Movement Index(ADX) shows the purple line rising above the green line which indicates a bearish trend in the VIX.
Overall, the VIX is showing that fear has subsided in the S&P500.
FEAR index - VIX vs. SPYHello traders,
we will try to implant a new point of view on the markets today. What if I told you that there is a tool that can find a bottom in the AMEX:SPY market?
This tool exists and is called CBOE:VIX .
If you compare these two graphs, you will easily see, that almost every extreme in the VIX market found the bottom in the SPY market.
Yes, it's that simple. Try to implant this tool in your trading. You will appreciate that. 100% guaranteed.
Good trading.
FINEIGHT team
VIX: Hit the Trade War highs. Cyclical decline starting.The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) which measures the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility, has almost hit last Friday the highs (50.30) of the U.S. - China trade war in
February 2018. Going further back on the time line, the 53.30 high of VIX during China's economic slowdown fears in late August 2015, isn't far off either.
Today's lower opening was a natural response but even then the index remains overbought (RSI = 80.163) and when it does it is historically unlikely to stay that high for low. We are expecting a strong decline back to the ease levels of 12.75 - 13.30 in around 2 months. As you see on the chart and the last two highs, this is a cyclical process of VIX and the occurence of the next shock event can even be timed. Regardless of timing, the current VIX levels present an optimal sell opportunity.
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ridethepig | VIX Market Commentary 2019.12.20A quick update to the Vix chart as we enter into the final important NY session of the year with quadruple witching. For those tracking the previous flows we remain in the same levels with the same targets and the same flows to track:
After we cleared TP1 we ran out of steam and decided to trade the retrace back towards Capitulation territory. This was enough to sweep the stops and absorb the floor:
We then got the spike in VVIX as it dislocated the from the flows while Vix remained comatose. This is an important highlight to make as we enter into year end with markets happy to trade the reflationary theme something that smells very very off;
With 2s5s screaming recession and protectionism hijacking the world what could possibly go wrong?
Tracking closely Vix today for the year end flows and 2020 positioning...We will update in depth the fundamentals and technicals 2020 maps for Vix over the holiday period.
Thanks for keeping all the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc! Best of luck those tracking VIX for signs of end of the cycle/reflationary 1H20 !!
VIX: at 12 in Pivot ZoneSimple idea. In May & Aug VIX tapped 12 briefly before volatility returned. Here we are again.
There is a bullish trend ongoing with successively weaker spats of volatility. Next jump might tap 18-20.
The interval of rotation appears to be three months; May +3mo > Aug +3mo > November. Prices at ATH; rotation soon seems likely.
This is rank speculation and in no way constitutes investment advice; trade at your own risk; GLTA!
VIX HXHistorical view. What's in store? ATL: 8.5. Typical reversal zone: ~10-11. Price now: ~13.
This year we've had volatility spikes when VIX <12-13. Are we in for another frantic bull run that crushes VIX sub-10?
Historically after three rate cuts markets rise 5-10%. Will we see SPX 3300?! If so, shorts will be just destroyed. Something to ponder...
I've been expecting pullback to lower TL in the rising SPY wedgie to 295, but it has been stubbornly resilient... will new money flow in?
Let's be careful! Not investing advice; trade at your own risk; GLTA!