VIX Potential For A Pop In this update we review the recent price action the VIX (Volatility S&P500 Index) and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
Volatilityindex
VIX - The recent high to be taken out soonThe volatility index, VIX, has spiked again, with the market marking new lows for the year. With these grim developments, we continue to be bullish on the index and expect it to reach our short-term price target of 35 USD soon. As if it was not enough, we expect VIX to continue higher over time. Therefore, we want to set a medium-term price target for VIX at 37 USD. Our preceding articles are attached to this idea.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
What do USD/MXN and S&P 500 VIX have in common?The Mexican peso (MXN) is one of the conventional high-beta currencies traded on the forex market, making it extremely susceptible to changes in risk sentiment on global financial markets. When MXN inflows occur, it usually signals that investors are willing to take risks. In the last three months, USD/MXN has lost 3%, making the peso one of the best-performing currency in 2022.
Much of the MXN's outperformance has been the result of a very hawkish Mexican Central Bank, which hiked interest rates up to 9.25%, the highest since 2005. Another 75bps hike is expected at November 10th meeting, which would bring Mexican rates to 10%.
Aside from the Banxico hiking cycle in Mexico, the Peso has a strong correlation with global risk factors, namely the stock market volatility. To put it another way, historically, the USD/MXN pair and the S&P volatility index ( VIX ) have behaved similarly.
What are we seeing now?
The USD/MXN 14-day RSI indicator has entered oversold territory, highlighting the need for caution for investors willing to take on more risk at this stage, as MXN valuations are beginning to appear rather stretched.
Therefore, the bearish momentum for both USD/MXN and the VIX might have reached a peak.
Aside from the results of the midterm elections, investors will almost definitely have to digest another strong US CPI data this week. Analysts predict 8% annual inflation in October, with core inflation at 6.5%.
If actual results match or exceed estimates, Fed interest rate expectations will likely be reassessed higher. As the U.S. and Mexican economies are highly interdependent, the anticipated cyclical weakening of the U.S. economy bodes poorly for the Mexican economy and adds to MXN downward pressures.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity market specialist at Capital.com
Band Protocol: Anticipating Major Volatility In The Near FutureBand has already had a huge move upbut despite that it's not trading anywhere near the levels it used to trade at relative to it's highs. I think that now that the RSI has cooled down from it's recent highs that we will now see Band Continue the Bullish Momentum and make a move up to around $4.50 thereby completing a the Bull Flag it's Developed here.
Overview of Cryptocurrency Volatility - October, 2022.Analysis of the volatility index in October on different timeframes.
Currency - US Dollar (Calculated using Tradingview), or analogues of USDT, BUSD.
The selection is carried out according to the lists of cryptocurrencies that are represented on the spot and futures markets, with a total of more than a hundred coins.
Top 15 Coins (1 hour):
1. LIT - 821.42% (High&Low: 1061.56%)
2. MASK - 657.69% (High&Low: 1330.04%)
3. INJ - 638.83% (High&Low: 1340.52%)
4. KLAY - 616.82% (High&Low: 1308.41%)
5. SUSHI - 614.19% (High&Low: 1232.87%)
6. RSR - 604.01% (High&Low: 1270.21%)
7. OP - 573.36% (High&Low: 1080.69%)
8. DOGE - 555.22% (High&Low: 1243.72%)
9. REEF - 544.62% (High&Low: 1177.31%)
10. JASMY - 544.37% (High&Low: 1104.02%)
11. ENS - 525.54% (High&Low: 1073.75%)
12. LINA - 524.26% (High&Low: 1072.65%)
13. LDO - 518.83% (High&Low: 991.55%)
14. DODO - 515.82% (High&Low: 1052.47%)
15. CHZ - 494.96% (High&Low: 1020.97%)
The coin showed the worst result: BTC - 187.65% (High&Low: 434.12%)
Top 15 Coins (1 day):
1. KLAY - 211.88% (High&Low: 415.78%)
2. LIT - 191.73% (High&Low: 408.44%)
3. MASK - 161.83% (High&Low: 347.11%)
4. SUSHI - 161.16% (High&Low: 298.66%)
5. INJ - 140.81% (High&Low: 311.64%)
6. OP - 137.32% (High&Low: 290.38%)
7. DOGE - 133.23% (High&Low: 293.44%)
8. RSR - 132.17% (High&Low: 301.14%)
9. REEF - 119.91% (High&Low: 296.06%)
10. JASMY - 115.56% (High&Low: 268.9%)
11. LDO - 114.36% (High&Low: 230%)
12. ENS - 111.9% (High&Low: 247.81%)
13. CHZ - 106.25% (High&Low: 238.25%)
14. LINA - 103.79% (High&Low: 232.37%)
15. LEVER - 102.28% (High&Low: 232.06%)
The coin showed the worst result: TRX - 32.26% (High&Low: 81.59%)
Top 15 Coins (October):
1. DOGE - 106.01% (High&Low: 156.01%)
2. MASK - 96.62% (High&Low: 179.12%)
3. LIT - 56.74% (High&Low: 71.9%)
4. SUSHI - 44.99% (High&Low: 79.45%)
5. INJ - 43.12% (High&Low: 67.71%)
6. KLAY - 32.79% (High&Low: 114.76%)
7. DYDX - 28.94% (High&Low: 58.54%)
8. WOO - 28.38% (High&Low: 45.07%)
9. BAL - 28.23% (High&Low: 56.07%)
10. AXS - 26.73% (High&Low: 39.09%)
11. HNT - 24.53% (High&Low: 35.66%)
12. RSR - 24.33% (High&Low: 62.71%)
13. KNC - 23.04% (High&Low: 32.84%)
14. EGLD - 22.74% (High&Low: 28.78%)
15. JASMY - 22.32% (High&Low: 42.21%)
The coin showed the worst result: CELR - 0.07% (High&Low: 23.74%)
Thanks for your attention!
DAX: Upper Bouhmidi-Band is a important resistance today$DAX is turning up and is on its way towards 13,500. However, the air is thin in this area, already at the start of trading the index reversed even before the upper #BouhmidiBands
VIX - Will the FED spark another rally in the volatility index?On 18th October 2022, we warned investors that our short-term price target of 35 USD would be pushed further into the future if the market rallied until the FED meeting. Now, we are growing increasingly bullish on the index and expect it to return above 30 USD and then continue toward our short-term and medium-term price targets.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
VIX Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022 VIX Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022
Currently the volatility for this week is around 12.11% , up from expected 8.8% last week.
According to ATR calculation, currently the volatility is located around 10th percentile.
Under this circumstances the expected movement of the candle is :
BEAR : 9.4% from the opening point of the weekly candle
BULL : 11.6% from the opening point of the weekly candle
At the same time, currently there is 22.8% that the movement within this weekly candle is going to
break and close either above or below the next channel:
TOP: 29.3
BOT: 24.5
Lastly, taking into account the previous weekly high and low there is a :
35% chance that we are going to touch the previous week high
60% chance that we are going to touch the previous week low
UVXY 4hr Bull FlagI sold in May and went away... It worked. I am back and charting part time until the weather chills more, then full time. The UVXY is potentially playing out a bull flag with good momentum potential to the upside (stoch rsi being low and moving up). We have clear stair stepping action as you zoom out. Not financial advice. Blessings!
Bitcoin: Volatitly cylce at the lowsVolatility on bitcoin is still very low, so there is no real interest in the crypto space which is normal in a risk-off environment. Keep in mind that everything is linked to FED policy, which is in a hawkish cycle right now, so higher yields, mean higher costs, thus its less free cash to be invested into the cryptos, stocks, etc. However, this hawkish cycle may come to an end if economic conditions will worsen in weeks and months ahead. A recession should force FED to slow down the hawks, and that's when new cycle will be seen in the markets. Ideally, this will be later this year or in 2023. That's when stocks could find a base and cryptos bounce away from the support as volatily may increase.
Pop or Drop? Only 5x in History has BTC done this!Traders,
Bitcoin has recently become less volatile than the markets. The chart here represents Bitcoin's volatility over the Dow's. In the bottom pane you will see that as the red line rises, it indicates BTC is becoming more volatile than the Dow. As it falls? Less. Rarely, has it touched the zero point (horizontal red line in bottom pane).
As you can see from my chart, we have only touched the zero point area only 4x in previous history. We are now on the 5th. After each touch (represented by the vertical line), huge moves have followed. The first was a 50% drop. Everything else thereafter was fairly significant pops. So far, the data shows a 75% probability of a pop. Will we make it 80% with this touch or is another big drop in store?
Either way, a big move is incoming? What's your call? Post in the comments below.
Stew
VIX - A strong warning to inexperienced investors! In September 2022, we warned investors about the volatility creeping back into the market and set price targets of 30 USD and 35 USD. Subsequently, in the following days after our warning, VIX skyrocketed, hit our price target of 30 USD, and halted its rise at 34.88 USD.
Despite the index halting its climb merely 0.12 USD below our price target, we remain very bullish. Indeed, we still expect our short-term price target of 35 USD to be reached within days or weeks.
However, we believe that VIX will not stop there but will continue higher, increasing the odds of a market crash. In our opinion, once VIX breaks above the range shown in the title picture, the market volatility conditions will start to resemble the market crash in 2020.
That would align with what we outlined about the general stock market progressing into the second stage of the bear market, which will be confirmed by declining corporate earnings over time. As a result, we expect trading conditions to become substantially more challenging; therefore, we voice a word of caution to inexperienced and lay traders.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of VIX and two trendlines highlighting the uptrend.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of the Nasdaq continuous futures, which have declined more than 30%. Additionally, the graph shows other major U.S. indices, all in the bear market territory.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
VIX - Volatility is likely to continue higher In tandem with our expectations, VIX reached our short-term price target of 30 USD during the FED meeting, constituting a new high. This development hints at a deepening bear market, which foreshadows a more significant spike in volatility over the coming months. We draw this conclusion from a combination of factors. These include fundamental factors on the level of central banks, like higher interest rates and quantitative tightening, and technical factors associated with major stock market indices, all pointing to more weakness ahead. Due to that, we have no reason to change our bullish bias on the volatility index. Accordingly, we stick to our price target of 35 USD; however, we would like to change it from a medium-term price target to a short-term price target.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
VIX Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022 VIX Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022
We can see that currently the volatility is around 14.08% for this week, decrising from the 14.3% from the last week.
Currently there is around 35.5% that the asset is going to close either above or below the channel:
TOP 37.72
BOT 28.28
The current volatility percentile is around 15th. With this situations in general the market moves:
AVG weekly bull candle = 12.73%
AVG weekly bear candle = 9.15%
With this mind, from the opening price it would situate us around
TOP 37.2
BOT 29.98
At the same time, due to the nature of the opening price, making this weekly candle a bearish candle, there is currently a
37% that we will break the ath of previous weekly candle of 35, and there is a 60% that we will touch the low of the previous week of 29.4
From the technical analysis point of view:
The majority of moving averages ranging from 10 to 200, are currently around 92% agreement that the market is in a bearish trend ( the current price is above those moving averages)
News that can affect the price of this asset this week:
- Monday 3 October : ISM PMI
- Tuesday 4 October : JOLT Job
- Wednesday 5 October : ADP and ISM release
- Thursday 6 October : Initial Jobless Claims and ECB Report
- Friday 7 October: Nonfarm Payrolls
Overview of Cryptocurrency Volatility - September, 2022.Analysis of the volatility index in September on different timeframes.
Currency - US Dollar (Calculated using Tradingview), or analogues of USDT, BUSD.
The selection is carried out according to the lists of cryptocurrencies that are represented on the spot and futures markets, with a total of more than a hundred coins.
Top 15 Coins (1 hour):
1. LUNA - 1237.95% (High&Low: 2727.19%)
2. ANC - 1189.61% (High&Low: 2402.57%)
3. RVN - 931.56% (High&Low: 2068.59%)
4. HNT - 817.05% (High&Low: 1703.06%)
5. REEF - 797.21% (High&Low: 1689.16%)
6. DGB - 764.07% (High&Low: 1977.38%)
7. LDO - 744.15% (High&Low: 1542.13%)
8. TRB - 692.71% (High&Low: 1374.5%)
9. INJ - 687.04% (High&Low: 1349.52%)
10. GAL - 673.92% (High&Low: 1254.45%)
11. STG - 671.25% (High&Low: 1386.23%)
12. IOST - 669.77% (High&Low: 1695.57%)
13. CHZ - 637.55% (High&Low: 1364.21%)
14. OP - 637.49% (High&Low: 1265.55%)
15. ATOM - 632.1% (High&Low: 1346.44%)
The coin showed the worst result: TRX - 243.47% (High&Low: 721.14%)
Top 15 Coins (1 day):
1. LUNA - 418.22% (High&Low: 846.11%)
2. HNT - 273.06% (High&Low: 460.79%)
3. ANC - 263.11% (High&Low: 616.52%)
4. RVN - 252.21% (High&Low: 484.85%)
5. TRB - 182.52% (High&Low: 352.18%)
6. REEF - 177.74% (High&Low: 393.28%)
7. ATOM - 150.09% (High&Low: 304.98%)
8. EOS - 146.22% (High&Low: 275.49%)
9. PEOPLE - 139.43% (High&Low: 271.83%)
10. RSR - 138.75% (High&Low: 290.9%)
11. APE - 135.16% (High&Low: 279.13%)
12. CRV - 131.15% (High&Low: 252.33%)
13. LDO - 129.58% (High&Low: 327.44%)
14. INJ - 129.45% (High&Low: 311.36%)
15. BTS - 129.17% (High&Low: 318.53%)
The coin showed the worst result: TRX - 38.3% (High&Low: 100.3%)
Top 15 Coins (September):
1. XRP - 46.41% (High&Low: 74.98%)
2. REEF - 39.68% (High&Low: 91.92%)
3. LUNA - 38.94% (High&Low: 330.91%)
4. RSR - 31.72% (High&Low: 60.06%)
5. KNC - 31.47% (High&Low: 57.9%)
6. COMP - 31.32% (High&Low: 47.1%)
7. ENS - 28.76% (High&Low: 36.35%)
8. BAL - 24.65% (High&Low: 42.79%)
9. SPELL - 24.18% (High&Low: 39.08%)
10. RVN - 24.16% (High&Low: 172.15%)
11. AUDIO - 23.45% (High&Low: 40.43% )
12. JASMY - 23.44% (High&Low: 47.45%)
13. ALGO - 22.47% (High&Low: 44.75%)
14. GALA - 20.2% (High&Low: 30.32%)
15. CRV - 20.05% (High&Low: 38.37%)
The coin showed the worst result: DENT - 0% (High&Low: 27.77%)
Thanks for your attention!
𝗩𝗼𝗹. 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $VIX Weekly. Five-wave patternHas built a triangle (five-wave pattern) over the course of this year. If resistance ~32 continues to hold could see a pullback, which would be bullish for equities
$VXX $SPY $SPX $QQQ $GLD $TLT $TNX $DXY
VIX Feels Like a Smoldering Volcano 🌋 Post-2020 Parabolic MoveThe consolidation pattern in the $VIX goes back to June 2020 after the initial COVID flash-crash scenario.
From June '21 to November '21, you started to see a bottoming formation turning into a new uptrend , subtle as might've been. The uptrend has chopped around in this rising channel since the end of 2021 up until the recent false breakdown during August 2022.
This head fake has allowed the $VIX to retake the bottom of the channel and continue up and up after every headline the market fears. Despite the approach of overbought levels, the bear market rally on Wednesday, September 28 gave volatility room to run.
It appears probable a consolidation pattern around 36-38 will level off the relative strength as of late, occurring for the month of October when the market could stage a short-term rally. Coincidentally, this will set up the $VIX right into the midterm elections...
To be clear, sirens won't start popping off on $SPY $QQQ and $DIA until a decisive, sustained move over 36.79 occurs. If that happens, a move to 47.20 seems like a no-brainer.
Notably, that is a test of the top of the rising channel , confirming 2 technical scenarios with the midterm elections as the catalyst for the next leg.
Keep your head on a swivel and keep an eye on the volatility of $VIX $TLT and $DXY for directional signposts in the broader market. Also, it's important to remember Jerome Powell and other Fed officials, Russian tensions, Europe energy or monetary headlines, and CPI could all eliminate this hypothesis.
VIX Feels Like a Smoldering Volcano 🌋 Post-2020 Parabolic MoveThe consolidation pattern in the TVC:VIX VIX goes back to June 2020 after the initial COVID flash-crash scenario.
From June '21 to November '21, you started to see a bottoming formation turning into a new uptrend , subtle as might've been. The uptrend has chopped around in this rising channel since the end of 2021 up until the recent false breakdown during August 2022.
This head fake has allowed the TVC:VIX to retake the bottom of the channel and continue up and up after every headline the market fears. Despite the approach of overbought levels, the bear market rally on Wednesday, September 28 gave volatility room to run.
It appears probable a consolidation pattern around 36-38 will level off the relative strength as of late, occurring for the month of October when the market could stage a short-term rally. Coincidentally, this will set up the TVC:VIX right into the #MidTerms...
To be clear, sirens won't start popping off on AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:QQQ , and AMEX:DIA until a decisive, sustained move over 36.79 occurs. If that happens, a move to 47.20 seems like a no-brainer.
Notably, that is a test of the top of the rising channel , confirming 2 technical scenarios with the midterm elections as the catalyst for the next leg.
Keep your head on a swivel and keep an eye on volatility of TVC:VIX , NASDAQ:TLT , and TVC:DXY for directional signposts in the broader market. Also, it's important to remember Jerome Powell and other Fed officials, Russian tensions, Europe energy or monetary headlines, and CPI could all eliminate this hypothesis.
BITCOIN and VIX. Buy/ Sell signals based on the Volatility IndexThis two chart layout depicts Bitcoin (BTCUSD) at the top and the Volatility Index (VIX) at the bottom. A rather simple correlation analysis between the two assets. As you can immediately realize, VIX can give buy signals on BTC (green circles) when the price is High and sell signals (red circles) when it is low.
More specifically we see a clear Higher Lows trend-line and Resistance Zone on VIX. Since Bitcoin's November 2021 market High, every time VIX hit the Higher Lows trend-line, BTC started falling (some days variance), while every time it hit the Resistance Zone, BTC started rising (though rises are rather limited in strength during Bear Cycles). In total we've had 11 such signals since Nov 2021, and only one failed to deliver (May 02 2022).
Yesterday VIX gor rejected just below its Resistance Zone and posted a very strong red 1D candle. It remains to be seen if this very strong correlation will continue to hold and provide another excellent signal, at least on the short-term.
What do you think? Do you agree with this finding? Will the VIX rejection, indicating lower upcoming volatility, cause a rise on Bitcoin? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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$VIX Has Reached Another FCP Zone - W Pattern Complete #VIXTraders and Investors,
The VIX picked up a lot of strength and violated the bearish flag that was earlier forming. Now it has just completed a W pattern which means that it can take a bit of correction. An extended version of this W pattern places the price in the next FCP zone as well. So although there are chances of it falling down, a little more strength can also push it higher. So watch this carefully along with indices.
Please support this analysis by liking and sharing. 👍🙂
Rules:
1. Never trade too much
2. Never trade without a confirmation
3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too
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Take care and trade well
-Vik
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📌 DISCLAIMER
The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
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VIX - Volatility is skyrocketingIn early August 2022, we warned that volatility would creep back into the market. Not long enough after that, the market started to sell off, and VIX skyrocketed from 20 USD to over 27 USD. Therefore, we stick to our short-term price target of 30 USD for VIX. However, we want to set a new medium-term price target at 35 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The chart shows a bullish breakout above the resistance and two opening gaps on VIX. All of these developments are immensely bullish for VIX.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
VIX - LongWe continue to be bearish on the general stock market and, therefore, bullish on the VIX. Accordingly, we stick to our short-term price target of 30 USD and a medium-term price target of 35 USD. We will pay close attention to the FED meeting on Wednesday as we expect the volatility index to rise further after the meeting.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
DAX - Bouhmidi-Reversal #DAX - After testing the upper #BouhmidiBands we see directly a push back into the bandwidth.
#volatility
